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tv   Under Secretary of State on Two- Year Anniversary of Russia- Ukraine War  CSPAN  February 22, 2024 7:46pm-8:36pm EST

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c-span as a public service along with these other television providers, giving you a front row seat to democracy. announcer: next undersecretary of state for political affairs victoria nuland talks about the russia-ukraine wore a mid the two year anniversary of russia's full-scale invasion. from the center for international studies in washington d.c., this is just over 45 minutes. [indiscernible chatter]
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>> good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for joining us. i am max bergman, director of the europe-russia-eurasia program. today it is my honor to introduce ambassador victoria nuland, the under secretary of state for political affairs, and as everyone knows, here she has a long and distinguished career as an american diplomat and foreign policy practitioner, including serving as former assistant secretary of state for european affairs. serving as fort secretary of state for european affairs. she has worked with presidents on both sides of the aisle and we are thrilled to have ambassador nuland with us to mark the second anniversary of russia's full-scale invasion of ukraine. ukraine awoke to the shock and horror of russians crossing into ukraine territory, initiating
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the most destructive conflict on european soil since world war ii. two years on, a grinding conflict continues, but it is worth remembering today that ukraine also continues. ukraine and its european dream did not perish with russia's invasion, due to the bravery of ukraine but also the support of the united states and its european allies. with the war now entering its third year, it is worth taking stock. we could not have a better person to do that with us then ambassador nuland, who has a wealth of experience when it comes to engaging with moscow and the region more broadly. please join me in welcoming undersecretary nuland. [applause]
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undersecretary nuland: thank you, max. it is good to be here with you all and thanks to csis for their contributions over the years, and thank you to those who are joining us in person and virtually. we all remember where we were two years ago in the months, days and hours leading up to putin's february 24, 2022 full-scale invasion of ukraine. the u.s. and csis' own reports were warning about putin's war plans and the terrible toll that could await ukraine. week after week, in the winter of 2021 and 2022, the russian military took up positions on
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three sides of ukraine. the u.s. offered negotiations to subvert the planned invasion, but those negotiations sputtered quickly because putin had already made up his mind. but many still hoped that the troop movements were just a pressure tactic. even some ukrainians believed that. many of us fear tha -- feared that if putin ordered his troops to roll in, ukraine would be decapitated and puppets would be installed. but instead, putin got newton's third law, unequal and opposite reaction. instead of capitulating, ukrainians fought, and so bravely. instead of pressuring, the west
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united, and instead of shrinking, nato group. the u.s. rallied the world to ukraine's defense in those early hours, days and weeks, and we have kept the global coalition of nations united for more than two years, standing strongly with ukraine. the u.s. has provided $75 billion in humanitarian, economic assistance, but our european partners have provided even more, 100 $7 billion, in addition to hosting 4.5 million ukrainian refugees across europe. the eu has just pledged even more for ukraine. finland has joined our defensive
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alliance, and russia is globally isolated. now, putin is reliant on countries like iran and north korea for weapons as he drives his country deeper and deeper into the economic and security arms of china. global sanctions, the oil price cap, the export controls we have put in place have weakened russia's war machine, and these restrictions will get significantly tighter in the coming days as we and our partners announce massive new sanctions packages designed, among other things, to strangle russia's efforts at sanctions invasion. europe broke its dependency on russian oil and u.s. doubled liquefied natural gas exports across the atlantic.
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only 13% of total consumption today. despite all the immense challenges from putin's vicious war machine, ukraine has survived. ukraine has taken more than 50% of territory seized by putin's forces at the beginning of the invasion and has pushed the black sea fleet off ukraine's coast, allowing ukraine to restore grain exports to prewar levels and help feed the world once again. remarkably, ukraine's economy grew by 5% last year, albeit from a war-torn base. remember, without sending a single u.s. soldier into combat
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and investing 1/10 of one year's defense budget in the united states, we have destroyed 50% of russia's ground combat power. ukraine has taken off the battlefield 21 naval ships, 100 two russian aircraft, and 120 russian tanks. ukraine's bravery and strength, its resilience, have made the united states safer too. more broadly, our continued support for ukraine tells tyrants and autocrats wherever they are, we will not stand by while the u.n. charter is toward just --torn to shreds. the world's democracies will defend the values and principles that keep us safe and strong.
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but on ukraine's front lines, unless and until the u.s. joins europe in passing our supplemental funding request, the situation will remain dire. artillery men today are fighting with only 10 to 20 150 five millimeters shells per day to defend themselves. ukrainians have been forced to withdraw. 's one of ukraine's russian-speaking cities is bombarded daily in an effort to disable it, and ukraine's economy is still fragile. vladimir putin, in addition to planting addled -- antisatellite weapons in space, thinks he can wait ukraine out
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and wait out all of us. we need to prove him wrong. with the $60 billion supplemental the administration has requested from congress, we can ensure that ukraine not only survives, but she thrives's. with the support in 2024, we can ensure ukraine can continue to fight, to build, to recover, and to reform. with this money, ukraine will be able to fight back in the east, but it will also be able to accelerate the asymmetric warfare that has been most effective on the battlefield. as i said in kyiv three weeks ago, this supplemental funding will ensure putin faces some nasty surprises on the battlefield this year. ukraine can also build. with its money, the u.s. will
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join 31 other nations in helping ukraine build the highly deterrent military that it needs to ensure putin can never come back and do this again. it will also rebuild its indigenous industrial base and ensure it can remain on the path to european integration. this also ensures ukraine can begin to recover economically and strengthen its tax base by investing in clean energy, grains and agriculture, steel, defense industry, and getting internally displaced people and refugees home to better jobs and safety. patriot weapons systems and other sophisticated air defenses not only provide battlefield protection, but as we have seen in kyiv and odessa, they create bubbles of safety under
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which citizens can live safely and th economy can rejuvenate. we are trying to drain the gray economies so ukraine can attract foreign investments, all the thing the ukrainian people have been demanding of their government since the 2013 revolution of dignity and before. our supplemental support will strengthen the ukraine of today but also put it on a more sustainable path for tomorrow. by the way, most of the support we are providing goes right back into the u.s. economy and defense industrial base, hoping to modernize and scale our own infrastructure while creating american jobs and economic
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growth. the first $75 billion package created good paying american jobs in 40 states across the united states, and this next request will do the same. in december 2022, i was in ukraine on one of the many trips i have made in the last couple of years, including four trips since the war began. i visited a center in kyiv the u.s. supports, which helps ukrainian children displaced by the war. i met a young boy with bright eyes and a sweet smile who had just lost his home to putin's barbarity. as part of a therapy session, he had a handful of other kids his age were making knit dolls out of yellow and blue yarn. before leaving, i asked him if i could keep one. "da," he said.
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a russian-speaking city. i asked what the doll's name was? "patriot," he answered. a young child, making a doll, who had just lost his home, thinking about patriotism. that is what war brings around the world. i keep him on my desk, to show the support the united states provides is not abstract. it is the difference between life and death for ukrainians on the front lines of this fight. when putin launched this vicious campaign, with war crimes and nuclear blackmail, he not only shattered life from ukrainians -- for ukrainians, but he laid
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bare the consequences of appeasing tyrants who are intent on conquest. here, i will be blunt -- we can't allow putin to succeed in his plan to erase ukraine from the map of free nations. if putin wins in ukraine, he will not stop there. autocrats everywhere will feel emboldened to change the status quo by fours. in the u.s., the price of defending the free and open international border we depend on will go up exponentially. democracies everywhere will be imperiled. support for ukraine is not simply a nice to have, but a vital, strategic investment in our own future. thanks, max. i look forward to our conversation. [applause]
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max: thank you, undersecretary nuland. let me start by asking how you see the state of the war right now with usaid essentially having dried up and ukraine facing a russian offensive, having seized territory and running low on ammunitions. if we are not able to provide aid, what is the outlook for ukraine? undersecretary nuland: tremendously difficult, as i made clear and as we see on the battlefield. in the last three, 4, 5 months, ukraine has had significant successes, most have been in the asymmetric realm, what they have
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done to the do and surprise attacks where the russians were not expecting them. so with increased u.s. support, many are thinking the war will look like what it did in 2023? i don't think so. they are getting far better at things like drone warfare and asymmetric ways of fighting. they now have the space to begin to build up their own defense industry, u.s. companies are joining in that as well as europeans. but it will be a far better picture with this money.
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>> if congress doesn't act, is the administration thinking about a way to get a do ukraine without allocating the funding to do so? the u.s. senate just passed this bill with 70 votes, so that tells you the american people strongly support continuing to help ukraine. it's in ukrainians interest, but also our own. so that message goes out into the districts -- what message are they giving to members of congress, and how are members of congress understanding what the world looks like and how they will have to answer if they don't support this funding. i am zoomers, i think we will get there, but the american
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people need to speak stronger to their mentors. max: what about encouraging the eu and european partners to do more as well? undersecretary nuland: we have 54 billion dollars in new assistance, and it is not just europe, but europe and our global partners are outstripping us on the economic support pieces of all of this. you see a lot of money in europe now going into building up their own defense and industrial base, to replace what you sent to ukraine, but also between other countries and ukrainians. i think there is a good amount of angst in europe about whether we will continue to do what we need to do.
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frankly, we need to send a strong message not just for ukraine, but about peace around the world. max: ever since putin's goals shifted, it began essentially with a regime change operation to take out zelinski and take the regime over, as you noted. is that still subjective? are you nervous about his ability to achieve that? undersecretary nuland: as we have been saying, as difficult as it is on the battlefield in ukraine now, putin has already failed that his primary objective. he thought it would be a cakewalk and that he would be in kyiv in a week, people would say
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yes, we would like to be russian -- now he is in a grinding war of attrition, it looks like world war i, along the line of control. the only reason that ukraine hasn't made more progress there, putin doesn't care about human life, including the life of his own citizens. there have been weeks all winter long where he sent more than 1000 russian young men into a meat grinder, to die, to hold places. so i think this is -- he will never admit it, of course, but this has been far different than he expected. far different then his intelligence services led him to believe. that is why he says sure, let's
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have peace talks. if you could get upon to rest and refit, he would take it. ukraine needs to be in a stronger position now, but i worry that as long as putin is in power, he will never give up the basic goal, to subjugate ukraine. i dealt with this the first time, you dealt with this the first time and in 2013 to 2016, we thought we could negotiate a high degree of sovereignty to the east and he could get out. so what is to stop him, if there was a pause or fake keys now, it's a comeback for the rest when he is strong enough. that is why in the supplemental, we have enough for today's fight, but also enough to help ukraine's partners build up highly deterrent military.
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max: there have been talks about whether to negotiate an end to this war. i'm curious about what your take is on the process of negotiations and how you have negotiations at a moment like this. do you think negotiations are possible now or in the future? undersecretary nuland: wars generally and in a negotiation of some kind. we are not going to pick that moment for ukraine. ukraine will make that decision for itself. putin needs to see this will just get worse for him before he will move at all at the table. his current offer, i will keep what i have got and we will talk about what is currently yours, and that is not sustainable.
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if we can continue to support ukraine, putin will probably wait and see what politics brings him. there is certainly a negotiation to be had when ukraine is in a stronger position. we have made clear that if our help is wanted, we will be there . max: there is a concern that russia will want to negotiate over ukraine's head with the united states. have you gotten any indications that the russians are trying to back channel negotiations over the ukrainians i've? undersecretary nuland: everything about ukraine. they think this is about a larger chessboard and about the narrative of grievance putin has
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woven to try and justify what he has done. this is about european security and nato, which is a defensive alliance and never intended to come anywhere near russia unless it was attacked. he will always try that. but we are resolute and the ukrainians are resolute. they lead in any discussions of this. no ukraine without ukraine. max: let me ask about the death of russian opposition leader alexei navalny, last friday. in june 2021, the president noted there would be devastating consequences for putin if n avalny were to die. he has now died in russian captivity. is the administration planning any action or has the united states used up the sanctions
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bulletin that we would have to hit back at the kremlin? undersecretary nuland: to underscore what everybody knows, it is vladimir putin who is responsible for the death of alexei navalny, his most vocal and effective critic. first by poisoning him, then locking him up, then sending him to the arctic. there should be no mistake about that. we will have a crushing new package of sanctions in the next couple of days, hundreds of them. i will let the white house announced them. some of them will be targeted at folks directly involved in navalny's death. the vast majority of them, though, are designed to further attrite putin's war machine and gaps in the sanction machine he has been able to evade, but
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as time goes on, we will be able to put forward more and more sanctions directly responsible on folks responsible for navalny's death. max: the united states has not been pursuing to change the leadership in the kremlin, but it does strike me, that it does not quite have a message to the russian people. what is the u.s. message to the russian people? do we see this war as being putin's war or being part of which the entire russian populace is complicit and should therefore be punished with future reparations? what is the broader message to the russian public? do we have one? undersecretary nuland: i think we directly often speak to the russian people. i do, the secretary does, the
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president does. as horrific as this has been from ukraine, putin has also stolen the future of his own people. we talked about 300 50,000 people killed or wounded. think about how many families in russia that touches. how does putin explain sending so many young boys into this meatgrinder, never coming home? a complete rejiggering of the economy so it is all about the war and not about education or technology, or integration with the world. everybody else's investing, including the united states, in our future, and putin is investing in death and destruction. you have seen the 1%, russia's billionaires and hundred millionaires have their own futures greatly curtailed,
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i remember the years i lived in europe, we used to see middle-class russians on the beaches of europe, able to enjoy a middle-class european life. no more. that is what he has done. our message to the russian people, you two are victims of the choices putin has made. you did not choose this war or this future. he has denied you free press, economic opportunities, sentience, or curtailing your opportunity to study or live abroad. this is all the result of his imperial dream that you did not want, that does not bring anything good for your life, but. >> let me ask you about the sanctions. now there is a narrative that the sanctions have not worked. that russia's defense ministry is up and running again
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producing, i think you mentioned, 2700 tanks have been destroyed. but the russian defense ministry is starting to ramp up. able to find parts and components from china or through snuggling -- smuggling through third countries. have the sanctions worked as intended? how would uss the overall sanctions? sec. nuland: we are trying to prove a negative here. if we did not have to sanctions how much material support and ability to take components, electronics, high-technology broke all over the world that vladimir putin has had that he would put 100% into the war machine. you are right that he and his tricksters have found a lot of ways to evade sanctions. that is why when you see the package we will launch in a couple days it's very heavily focused on evasion, on nodes,
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networks, and countries that help evade willingly or otherwise. and on the banks that support and allow that kind of evasion. and some of the inputs for the weapons. again, we should all be horrified that he is now getting drones made for him, not only in iran, but five iranians in russia, that he has cut some deal with kim in the dprk and who knows what kind of technology russia is trading to get 155 ammunition that it is using on the battlefield. this is massively destabilizing. further, to the question about the future that vladimir putin is giving his own country, you can see week on week, month on month the greater economic integration and dependence russia has economically, strategically, on china.
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is that the future they want? there are reports that russia might be getting more advanced ballistic missiles from iran. what would the implications of that be on the battlefield? is there a response the u.s. can do? sec. nuland: i won't get into intelligence. i know you will understand that. but obviously, the proliferation of russian and iranian missile technology is something we worry about all over the world. russia used to be part of our community trying to prevent that from happening because that kind of production could someday be aimed at russia. this is the future vladimir putin has chosen for russia. it is dealing with pariah states audit these kinds of issues. obviously, we have to watch every evolution on the battlefield. we have to help the ukrainians counter it.
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>> of course this is an election year in the u.s.. sec. nuland: including by the way having just found dprk missile imports in ukraine. >> this is of course an election year in the u.s., a big election year in europe with european parliamentary elections and elections all over the world. it seems in europe in particular there is increasing concern about russian hybrid threats, russian active measures, russian intelligence services been quite active. there is a recent report from our friends london receipt highlighting that russia's intelligence services might be back with a vengeance in europe. are you concerned about a, the threats to elections, b, what this means for infrastructure or other targets that the russians may take out? do you think that we have the ability to deter such forceful russian responses when we have
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been about to level a whole other package of sanctions? have we shot all her arrows? do we have an ability to deter russia short of a military deterrent? sec. nuland: if you are talking about election disinformation and interference, that is a whole other front on which we and our allies have partnered since we saw this in the first time in the u.s. in 2016. we have had to work on this. obviously all of us having elections in 2024 have had to spin up our cooperation, our information sharing. i always like to say that sunshine is the best disinfectant. what is most important is as soon as we see this happening from russia or any other malign actors we have to inform our publics. we have to educate them that they should not be fooled by this stuff. it is harder when you have supporters of vladimir putin's
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ideology inside the politics of some of our countries. who are eager to help amplify that narrative. then they have to think about, do they want our countries to be dependent on russia going forward? >> i will ask one or two more questions and then we will take just a couple from the audience. we don't have a lot of time. but the situation in ukraine itself, volodymyr zelenskyy just replaced his top general. this happens in warfare. is there any concern you have about the direction of the politics in ukraine? as we enter the third year, are your interlocutors exhausted? what is the mood you get from your engagement with ukraine -- ukrainian leaders? sec. nuland: while of course, two years of bloody, awful war
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with war crimes, and the kinds of destruction of innocence and a civilian infrastructure and all that takes a toll. i think i am grayer, and certainly, zelinski is, frankly. -- certainly, volodymyr zelenskyy is, frankly. so, that is part of why we try to visit and meet on a regular basis to give strength and support. to make sure that ukraine knows it is not alone. as ukrainian leaders, let five flood missile themselves say, their greatest strength in all of this since the beginning has been their unity. when he chose not to leave the country nobody else left the country. ukraine, over many decades, has, like many countries, our own included, had fractious politics. this war has been uniting in a way that i think vladimir putin
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did not expect and ukrainian leaders counseled their own and they need to stay vigilant about that unity. >> we will go to questions from the audience after i ask one more. there has been a critique of the administration that throughout the conflict it has been too cautious, too slow applying -- supplying weaponry to ukraine. as somebody that worked in the security side i am impressed with the speed on weapons going out the door. there is confluence -- conflict. do you think it's fair criticism? how do you view that narrative out there? sec. nuland: what we have tried to do week on week, month on month, now year on year is calibrate what we are sending to precise needs on the battlefield to what we are hearing from ukrainians to what is available. as you have seen, it has been a massive effort to find particularly air defense systems around the world to meet all the
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ukrainian it needs. we will continue to do that. five the same token, it is important we not trip this into a larger european war. ukraine does not want that. we don't want that. and thank goodness, so far, that has been avoided. but you have to be careful with vladimir putin. >> is there a concern, when ukraine is starting to use its own weapons to start -- strike russian soil, is that something you are concerned about? do you encourage it? do you dissuade it? do you feel like that could escalate the conflict or it's not just the nature of a war between two states? sec. nuland: i will obviously not talk about our private messages to ukraine. i will just say that when you see the asymmetric things ukraine is not able to do, it is matching things that russia has already done. largely.
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>> great. with that let me see if there are any questions from the audience. yes or my right -- yes sir i'm a right here. wait for the microphone. if you can introduce yourself. >> i am from the middle very institute of international studies. i am following up on max's last point rate if there are a couple things the administration could do without additional funding from congress that would help with weapons deliveries. they could allow more modern at a cams to be sent by allies if not from the u.s. and at the u.s. could allow weapons to be used to strike russian territory. secretary stoltenberg had a comment on that today. about that should not be off-limits. i would appreciate your response to that. sec. nuland: again, i am not aware of the u.s. presenting -- preventing allies from sending weapons to ukraine.
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maybe you can send me what you are concerned about. but, again, i won't comment on whether the choices ukraine makes about where it starts or about the advice we give them. sec. nuland: ok. >> i am from the washington post. i have a question thinking about how you have handled, or, how the administration has handled weapons deliveries over the last two years. to what extent do you think the shape of the war and ukraine's battlefield successes might have been different had you sent long-range fire earlier to the extent to they have been constrained by the u.s. cautioned that we have all been talking about here? and, also, i was curious. i was also just in munich.
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you mentioned there is no plan b. that the u.s. focused on a plan a. the very large hotel in munich. everybody, all of the american saying do not worry, europeans will sort through our political issues here. ultimately the supplemental will somehow be passed. i am wondering if that is, in our perspective, the best message to the europeans? or, if it would have been more help will -- helpful for ukraine and at the europeans to have an american acknowledgment of political unpredictability earlier said the europeans could plan accordingly? thank you. sec. nuland: i think the fact the europeans task their own $54 billion package that was pretty massive by their standards well before we were able to get even the senate vote speaks to the fact that they wanted to lead and set an example, including,
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for our own congress, so, you would review -- remove an excuse we have heard a lot from members. that the rest of the world is not doing enough. i do not think there has been any question about the europeans being concerned about where we might be going. in fact, the steps they took, i think, were helpful in getting 70 senators to pass the full package in the senate. i hope it made an impression including on house members that went to munich. regarding the war, i want monday morning back. if you have done this or that. i think what we see is russia has quite a bit of time to dig in world war i style, as i said a couple times, with these awful trench lines. because they do not value human life and because ukrainians have to fight in a way we would never fight, meaning, with no aviation
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cover, it has been a much different war than people have seen in a long time. and i am hopeful we are all learning from that. certainly the ukrainians are. in moving to more asymmetric tactics. >> time for one more back here. >> i am a resident fellow with the atlantic council. regarding the future willingness of europe to support ukraine i have two concerns. one, that there seems to be a sense in europe now that ukraine may not be successful in continuing the war much longer and they might actually focused their attention more towards defending themselves in the future against russia at the border. second, there will be a european commission or european union elections at elections in many other countries where some of the parties may gain or when that have been skeptical about
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help for ukraine in the first place. how uss that? how do you assess the willingness of europe and in the future to help? >> for some europe protecting itself, all of us have to invest not only in range -- ukraine's fight but rebuilding her own defense industrial basis. we have given so much to ukraine. we have understood that some of the systems we thought we would never need, 15 five artillery, are clearly still part of the kit. so, the fact that, as i said, with regard to our own package, so much of it goes right back into the u.s. economy to replace and allow us to send other stuff to ukraine, this serves a threefold purpose. it helps ukraine. it provides jobs in the u.s.. and it served as economic stimulus. i think countries like germany
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are starting to see the same requirement. that's a good thing. i think right now we have not seen and either/or in europe. we have seen a yes and, including countries like germany looking at how to build weapons in ukraine both for their market, the global market, etc.. that's what we need to foster going forward. i will tell you, as somebody that works out around the world, some of these really basic systems, we make the cadillac of weapons forget about some of the most basic stuff is needed by everyone all over the place. by countries defending themselves against terrorism and other things. so, again, i think we have learned a lot in the last year or two. i think at the nato summit here in washington in july you will see a big focus not only on ukraine, but investing in our own defense. >> one final question from me.
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at the munich security conference there was a lot of pessimism. are you pessimistic or optimistic about ukraine's future and our continued support for ukraine? and where the war will go? sec. nuland: i am an optimist by nature and also paid to be an optimist. we get up every morning and try to make it better for ukraine and also better for the free world and the u.s.. >> secretary newland thank you for your optimism and what you do everyday. please, join me in thanking secretary nuland. applause --. [applause].
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