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other television providers, giving you a front row seat to democracy. announcer: next, the white house council of economic advisors chair jared bernstein talks about the benefits of full employment and its impact on the economy during an event hosted by the peterson institute for international economics in washington, d.c. >> hello, everyone, and welcome back to the peterson institute fointernational economics. i'm adam posen, the institute's president, and we are genuinely thrilled today to have with us the honorable jared bernstein, chair of the u.s. council of economic advisors to president biden. he's going to be talking about the benefits of full

employment. this is in some ways the hottest and possibly the most important topic in macroeconomic policy, and i want to give full credit to jared and his colleagues at the cea, who've been on this topic and doing research and advocacy and policy advice, time throughout the biden administration with the benefits of full employment in mind. the attention goes a lot rightly to the federal reserve and the so-called soft landing, but the understanding why it became a soft landing and what role fiscal policy and other structur policies played rightly is evaluated in the latest economic report of the president. and if i canrae of my

free copies, these are of course free to everyone. the government publishing office if you're watching online, you can get your own 2000 page copy. but what is remarkable in the current edition that the cea has put out under jared's leadership with obviously contributions of heather and other key staff, is the first chapter on the benefits of full employment. not only why it matters, but bringing into the macro discussion the issues of monopsony, which is hiring power. as a d evaluating the long-term trends and to some degree why people were perhaps too pessimistic

about those in the past. looking about why and how a rising tide in this case lifted the smaller boats and arguably lifted the smaller boats more than the yachts ic is an outcome that we didn't all think could happen. but did. so it is a very exciting time to be talking about the economic report of the president. before i formally introduce jared, just a note that unofficially with jared here and the cherry blossoms task it's the official start of macro season at the peterson institute. we have quite a lineup. of course nothing is as good as hearing jared. but we have quite a lineup over the next few weeks that we hope even c-span will need to comeybe back for some of these events, including next week on march 27 -- excuse me, that is later

this week. nicholas veron, sheila bear and graham steele on the future of the u.s. banking sector. our semiannual global economic prospects event led by karen dinan on the us economy with remarks by tian le hang on the chinese economy and mory obsel on our lessons from exchange rates. an update on too big to fail with martin gromberg, the chair of the fcic and tobias adrien from the imf among others taking place wednesday, april 10. and then a horde of central bankers and those who love them inhe following week. in particular i want to feature relating to some of the other themes in this year's economic report of the president our joint conference with the imf on steering structural change. the latest in our biannual

reth we are grateful to partnership with the whole imf and others on that. if we're going have green roads, if we're going to have greater equality and deal with ai, we have to be able to steer structural change and have it mean something more than it used to which is the oecd laundry list of liberalization. and we're very hopeful that our conference which i believe includes a colleague or two from the ca -- from the cea will be addressing those challenges, but again let's start off with the most important document on the most important topic of the day which is the benefits of full employment today. and we are indeed fortunate that jared bernstein and the council of economic advisers chose the peterson institute for this discussion. jared has been chair of the 31st chair of the council of advisors since being

confirmed in the senate last june. he serves as president biden's chief economist and a member of the cabinet but of courseed served as a cea member from the beginning of the administration and was a prominent voice in puic the macro economic issues of the biden administration and therefore this country. in policy he was previously chief economist and economic advisor to then vice president biden from 2009 to 2011 and served as deputy chief economist at the department of labor during the clinton administration. dr. bernstein was a senior fellow at center on budget and policy priorities from 2011earsn senior roles at the economic policy institute which of course understates he played a key intellectual leadership role in making the epi what has become. dr. bernstein has spoken here at the peterson before and worldwide d

has always been interested in the juncture of inequality, macroeconomics, labor markets and trade as well as a living standards of the middle class. i know jared's also going to open briefly with some remarks about someone who we lost who shared a similar focus at that conjuncture of issues. but most of all today i am glad that we can all focus on the fact that full employment has been attainable and that the benefits have become evident and that is a positive challenge to macroeconomic policy going forward. so with that, let me podium. [applause] >> b think adam and others, i want to speak a minute or two about the tragic collapse of the bridge in baltimore.

we spent the morning at the white house trying to do all we can to help the president i think just finished speaking about this, he talked about the scope of the tragedy and how he is incredibly gratefulo the brave rescuers who immediately got to the scene and talked about the people of baltimore and how we are with you. we will stay with you. he and the governor talked about maryland tough and while some were means something to folks in this room who know what i'm talking about. we will get through this and we at the white house will be with you every inch of the way. now turning to today's presentation, it is true that like the cherry blossoms, i am past my peak. but i am still excited to talk about this subject with you. i want to thank adam. he was the first person i thought of. and pie, the first place i thought of when we thought about

where we would like to present this information from the new economic report of the president. i want to thank my friend david wilcox who helps guide my thinking on this and many other issues. i have a brief set of h)comments and thendam and i will chat and hopefully take some questions. believe was his first economic speech since he took office, president biden discussed the urgency of his newly proposed american rescue plan by elevating 6b■e need to quickly get back to full employment. in fact, he used the phrase five times in that speech and i guess somebody else controlling these because i didn't make that happen but ok -- he, ok. that's ok. not to be controlling. but i have this year. he pointed out that according to cbo, if we don't take action it

would take until the year 2025 to return to full employment. he cited outside estimates maintaining at if we rescue plan, we could achieve full employment by the beginning of next year, citing the importance of standing up a nationwide vaccination program which as you recall did not exist when we took office. he argued we can get to full employment sooner. why was this new president invoking a concept that was here not much spoken about side of think tanks and even there mostly those that were labeled progressive or labor oriented? that's not a rhetorical question. i know the answer. it's that president biden has always believed that worker bargaining power is an essential ingredient to an economy that is fair, inclusive, and it stands in sharp contrast with trickle-down economics, grows the economy from the middle out, bottom up not the top, down, and that full employment supports the bargaining clout that he views

as so critical. it's why empowering workers would later be enumerated as one of the three pillars of bidenomics and why the benefits of full deployment is the first chapter of cea's new economic report of the president. i'll note here and as you see in front of you that the chawasd and mentor bill sprigs who taught me this+

overall growth? the chapter answers all of these questions in some depth emphasizing both theory and extensive evidence, some of which i will share with you in a moment. but since i want to move quickly toward the discussion, i will only skim the surface of the answers here. i thought this was an interesting find from 1731. the statement here was that this is the earliest reference we could find for full employment -- i know back then they used capital letters fairly randomly as i see it. i'm not sure we would agree about a universal shield furnace to everybody but that's not one of the benefits without. but i just thought it was interesting riches are diffused over the nation. that's a very clear statement of the equality premium we talk abouthated with. but the first question is what do we mean? for this crowd i'm sure it's a standard thinking that you could equal the lowest unemployment

rate consistent with steady inflation that's very conventional. ustar is a widely used guidepost. perhaps a more concrete perspective is that when unemplment is at its nuralrate r workers is more likely to generate inflation than boost real income. that's in the chapter. dave and i did an interview right after we wro the chapter and the first question asked was, what do you think full employment is? what is the number. we looked at each other like, how could we not have prepared for that question? the new administration forecast that just came out in the budget has our terminal employment rate at 38 but there is a wide confidence around this and other estimates i think would lead me to believe that based on current demographics, ustar would be below 4, in the 3 or 4 range. heart of the chapter which is the benefits of

full employment, i put them in three buckets. first the enhanced bargaining power i mentioned that comes with full employment distributes more resources to those who would have relatively and absolutely less rou weaker labor markets. some have called this full employment's "equality and the empirical evidence of that time and it's a chapter. i'll take you through that in a second. the second is the growth contention, consumer spending and an economy like ours helps promote steady and stable growth. the chapter says little about this but i've talked a lot about it in the context of the current recovery. and this dynamic has been especially important ass have lf and real earnings have helped cup some of that slack. third, more speculative benefits around what has been called verdorn's law or reverse

hysteresis. the idea that full employment can generate gains tu.vity growh boosting the economy supply said. now let me take you on a quick tour of the evidence starting with estimates of the natural rate of full employment which yoly put our quite wide and varied -- are quite wide and varied. if we want to, we can talk about why there are so many different estimates of full employment but the point here isha other vari'n a number that's been tough to pin down. i will point out the straight line, the cbo ustar measure is one that gets used a lot in no small part because it is really easy to point and click and get to it. it is clearly far less than the rest. it's also far less noisy than -- sorry -- is also far less nosy than earlier cbo measures. the reas isey switched

a bit ago to something they call the -- that they referred to now as the noncyclical unemployment< rate, which what they do is, i believe it was in 2005 q4, they decide, this looks like full employment to us, so they assume that going forward and back they estimate the noncyclical unemployment rate holding demographics which in this case are sex, age, and race constant. that's why you get that kind of a flat line. ok, now turning to more -- i'm going to buzz through this stuff. the idea of the rising tide lifts some votes more than others as adam alluded to. we now have the lowest black/ white unemployment gap on record. this separates it out for men and that kesner and others including dave

did at the federal reserve. you see a fairly clear cyclical pattern although not much happening in the 2000's. i think that has a lot to do with tac full employment periods in the recent history, the latter 1990's, the current period, you see a more cyclical response of this racial gap. regression adjusted for demographics and such. this is the same exercise with the employment rate. and here we have the hispanic versus the white gap in the epop and again you see in the period, you see a cyclical increase there, though more linear than the unemployment one. we have a number of scatterplotk

just in wolfer's had done. it looks at the cyclicality of the on employment rate and the labor force participation rate. what you see here on the left is that groups with the lowest average in employment rate over quite a long period so groups that tend to have low unemployment don't have much variation in the unemployment rate. the absolute change in the unemployment rate over expansions and recessions. so if your college educated -- you're college educated, you are less exposed to cyclical ups and downs, but if you are someone with high school or less, you have average high unemployment rate goes up and down a lot more and recessions and recoveries, so this is absolute change, down in recessions, up in recoveries, behind the black/white gap closure i showed you in a moment. one of the benefits of full employment is this dynamic of racial equity in the labor market. you see the same thing in the

lfpr. the cyclicality of it is that with a low average have more variation in their labor force participation rates relative to those with much higher lfpr, so this is something i will come back to later when i talk about the possibility of lasting supply-side this is an interesting take on something you may have seen less of before. it talks about how the job ladder becomes more accessle to less advantaged workers in periods of full employment. we know that in strong labor markets, workers are more likely quit to rise up the job ladder. i will talk about that one i talk about the recent beverage curve research. but higher quit rates mean that the job ladder in periods of full employment becomes even more accessible to vulnerable workers.what the chart shows ise implement rate is low, the job

to job switching rate rises more for black workers than white workers. at least in my work, that is a perspective i had not seen before. job to job switches, more advantageous for less advantaged workers in periods of tight labor markets. that's a great finding. this is just a tnsition rate for disabled workers, from non-participation to employment, and you see a nice uptick in the full employment period of the latter 1990's and the last expansion and where we are now, again not much in the 2000's. i argue we were less apt with employment. this is a particularly important story right now. the quality premium. here you wages for the 10th and 90th percentile workers.

they grew together. they are growing in real terms, which is good to see. in this expansion, you see the 10% -- 10th percentile pull ahead, so you have full employment generating more wage. this dimension of the kind of premium i was talking about for full employment in terms of where the benefits disproportionately flow. here we are simulating the increase of a more flat labor market, but it's symmetric. you could flip this around if you wanted to do a more tight labor market, but it shows how households -- now we are talking is a broader context. here you see the change associated with a one percentage point increase in the unemployment rate cap. a larger unemployment rate gap or negative output gap, you see

that for single mother households, black households. that turns into a 2% loss of annual earnings, and the grading much for high income families, particularly for black households, single mother households, really the middle of the elasticity. it's either unity or greater than unity. again, because that is income, t and analysis -- and an hour's effect. the hours effect is a potent part of this. the graph earlier showed groups of lower lpr's more cyclical response to full employment. here's one i wonder if you have seen before. this is the change of the labor share in the unemployment rate gap. as you move to the right, the

gap grows. you see when you have a negative gap, labor share is increasing. that' on the y access, so that correlation shows a negative correlation between output gap and labor share growth for labor share of national income. ok. getting to and staying at full employment, this is, as i mentioned, another one of the questions that -- hold on a second. got myself a little turned around here. my pages. here we go. what i just took you through is a subset of the benefits. by the way, we are clear that

full employment is no panacea. we include a detailed discussion of policies thato reach of full employment, including antidiscrimination policies, d care, and housing. -- health care -- antidiscrimination policies, childcare, and housing. as showed a mo■omesupply is pro. that's what i showed you with that "live from paris are due to plot. persistently, full employment markets can pull in workers from the sidelines, and this certainly tracks the current expansion in ways that i think are very important. this shows prime age labor force growth,-year percent change, and it shows that for prime age workers, the increase

in the last couple of years has been hisrically quite strong. that mountain you see has really been quite important to the expansion. i should point out that research shows both foreign a native workers are playing a significant role in that expansion. currently, labor force participation rate for women aged 25 to 54 is a tick below the entire rate ondateback to '. i think there's a case to be made in terms of supply-side gains related to full employment overall. how long they last is up for grabs. second and much more relevant to anaconda -- to an economist audience like this one, economies will try to prevent unit labor costs from rising. the labor share figure i showed you earlier shows they are not entirely successful in doing so, but one way to stabilize unit

labor costs is to discover efficiencynecessary to tap in t. speare the problem is that by assumption, any firmde its prodn possibilities frontier should have been competed out of business. so i recognize that that explanation collides with some assumptions in micro, but i think that's ok. others have made this potential collection. connection. you see the citations here. between persistent employment and lasting supply-side gains. secretary yellen did so in a speech. and impressively empirical got into the question from 2016 have a quote, the evidence of highly persistent beneficial impacts on the supply-side economy in past events is not strong.

this does not say that they don't exist but that they are also like them, we do not dismiss the possibility of a linkage between full employment and lasting supply-side gains. we have seen a bit of productivity acceleration in the current expansion, as this slide shows, although it's level is largely back on trend -- that's a trend from 2017 t's level is d some nice work suggests it takes two to three years or at least it took two to three years in the 1990's to identify a higher growth trend in productivity, but we also thinkland on the fut argument, the fact that it yields such strong equality dividends goal. to argue it also must

permanently raise lifestyle may be getting a little greedy. in terms of policies that keep us at full employment, we want to focus on not learning the wrong lesson from the post-pandemic period and particularly the inflationary episode we are still working our way through. the idea that fiscal and monetary policy should be used to fill monetary gaps÷c widely accepted, but we worried the next time out, policymakers will incorrectly assume that countercyclical policies are necessarily inflationary, so we focus on supply, demand, any persistent full the past few years and their relationship to the rise of inflation over hundred 21 and 2022. we argued the collision of pandemic-induced supply disruptions and strong consumer demand that shifted firmly towards the very goods that were supply constrained contributed to the rise of inflation. demand, we argue, was boosted by

the accumulation of excess savings, which in turn related to sharp reduction in pandemic-induced spending on services and travel, supported by strong fiscal and monetary support throughout 2020 and 2021. we write, given the developments over the years since the previous assessment, the cea has found more evidence that supply factors played a key role in both inflation's rise and its subsequent decline. consider that employment where the main cause of the increase in inflation, the subsequent disinflation in the economy has experienced, should have brought about substantial slackening of the labor market. however, the magnitude of the so-called sacrifice ratio, the amount of increased unemployreqg the recent disinflation since the peak in june 2022 suggests otherwise. over the period covered, which includes most recent data available when we published the

book, the disinflation has required little in terms of labor market slap -- labor market slack or job loss. kind of in the spirit of the bernanke analysis, we find that supply chain normalization, even on its own or interacted with slack, and that is important, explained about 80% of the disinflation in the core pce through q4 of this year. we havcononlinearity in this cus important, a point i raise here in this space. we have our own■e slide showing non-linearity's using msa-level

data. thus far, we have been progressing down a part of that curve where the sacrifice ratio is low. ■1■?that raises questions aboute last mile and if there will be a tougher slog back to target on the flatter part of the curve. we also look at this analysis the the lens of■k■. a curve that ought to be especially steep at high openings and low unemployment rates. another non-linearity. the idea is that vacancy drives relative to the number of ill jobs. that leads to a sticky unemployment rate relative to additional bracing -- relative to additional vacancies. they posit correctly so far that without an increase in job losses or rise in unemployment.

alternatively, olivier at all argue that such high rates of vacanciesere due to a decline in matching efficiency. because they were skeptical that matching efficiency would markedly improve, they predicted that declines in job openings could be affected by increased employment, which they showed to be historical irregularity. we do not know if their mechanism was correct or if matching efficiency did improve. it is the case that the unusually high level of job to job switching, which tends to reduce matching efficiency among the unemployed, has come back down post-covid. slide shows that job openings have fallen substantially with little rise in the unemployment rate. at this point, our analysis shows substantial disinflation generated by supply-side normalization, including some degree of realignment of supply

and demand in the labor market while maintaining full employment conditions. none of this is to suggest that countercyclical policy hade runn inflation, though in our model, slack by itself in a model where slack is interacted with the supply chain variation and post-pandemic disinflation. this chapter shows president biden's urgency to quickly get the labor market back to full employment has yielded deep and important benefits at both the micro and macro levels. if there is one overarching policy lesson from our work, it is that empowering workers through full employment labor markoets remains one of the most important economic policy goals there is. thank you. [applause] >> thank you, jared.

thank you very much, jared. as a capital official, he alwayn the tragedy in baltimore today, i think that is even more applicable. we are all grateful for the vast amount of content that jared and his team has brought to bear on this issue. what i would like to do is i'm going to put two questions relatively quickly. then we will turn to our audience. this is all on the record. >> and i will go an extra five minutes. >> you can go an extra five? great. what we will do iso pairs of two questions. thank you. first up, picking up on where you ended up, there was a great deal of debate and concern in

2021-22, including from predecessors of yours, cea chairs in previous democratic administrations, fiscal policy potentially overheating the economy. you have been very clear about where your analysis takes you and in your analysis, it is not a huge factor. i want to push you on this, not on the allat of variants in the last couple years, but more in terms of the applicability as it goes forward,tha partly, as you and the town hall have argued, what was a unique or at least unusual setup supply factors, truman -- driven by the pandemic, energy response. does this experience feel relevant to you for a more let's

call it normal time, with the inflation effects directly from slack via fiscal policy, be felt under different circumstances, or does this have more general applicability that people have been too concerned about in the past? >> i think that one should really give a lot of weight to the unusual dynamics of pandemic economics and that fiscal policy remains largely>g innocent and s not proven guilty by this episode. i have tried to stress in all of my discussions, including my ■5words here today, that none of that says fiscal policy has nothing to do with it and, in speaking, i recall, in the press briefing and say i do think the rescue plan is going to generate som inflation

, and i was pretty confident i was right. i think thatre a number of facts that push you in that direction. nonlinearity is really important . i think you have shown the importance of that, and i think nonlinearity's are very much a function of a highly snarled supply chain and l supply as well, bumping up against quite strong demand. fiscal policy played a role in d#sustaining the strength of demand. that is why we thought it important to interact with slack and fiscal policy in the model. one of the biggest lessons i in what you're supply-side. don't assume it's going to do what you want it to. ofou a 100-year pandemic is a particularly challenging data point if you have not gone through that. generally speaking, i think the

comments i made in the talk and what i just reflected here suggest a fairly aggressive, quick fiscal policy response to negative output gaps rwarranted. getting back to full employment as quickly as possible is the best policy and be mindful of your supply-side. >> thank you. a second question, something that i did read the report before i got my lovely hard copy, something which was not featured either in the report or chapter one of the report or your discussion today, when you talk about been the surge in immigration we have seen the last year or two in the u.s., which, frankly, most of the peters institute welcome, though it is obviously controversial in places, but just analytically speaking, when you talk about the improvements

in labor supply, how much the return of both documented and undocumented workers to the u.s. affect labor supply, and does it actually suggest -- being wishful here but maybe you agree -- that if immigrants to the u.s., at least, are not a major determinant of domestic bargaining power, since you showed workers had bargaining power rising even as we have seen the rise in migration. >> immigration increases supply and demand. that is importan remember. i should start by saying that president biden has said unequivocally that the border is broken and needs to be fixed, has presented extremely ambitious and in my view potentially highly effective policies to fix the border, and the opposition has largely treated that as a politil

football as folks are trying to solve a serious problem. with that said, the increase in labor supply has been documented, as i mentioned in my talk, as coming from both foreign-born■r■ and native-born sources. when we talk about supply chain on snarling, if i'm being more disciplined, i say supply chain and labor improvement. immigration certainly proves -- plays a role there. >> thank you. now i'm going to tur to the audience. we have standing microphones to my left about 2/3 of the way back in the room. that's a so you can appear on tv. we also have a roving microphone. when called upon, please identify yourself, name and least you are making a question instead of a statement. >> given that my time is short. >> the person in the very back,

just put down your hand. if you could make your way to that microphone, and then we will come back to that microphone. thank you. you're on first. >> there seems to have been a global trend where the response rate in a lot of labor market surveys have fallen quite bstantially over the past decade or so, and what you had recently is that coupled with pandemic-era shifts in work and practices. this seems to be leading to concerns about the quality of the source data we are getting on the labor market. i guess two issues for you. one, do you share those concerns about the quality of labor marketd you suggest we do to rectify some of the issues we have seen with the response rat>> we want to make u

can escape, so if you could pose your questions, and then you ll respond, and then we will come back. >> thanks. terrific presentation. i look forward to reading the chapter. hopefully it will give me some insights for my own work going forward. queson is, i know when you look at inflation in the past few years, you did a big comparison with other countries. have you thoug a looking at other countries on this topic, the benefits and costs of labor market tightness? it seems to me there's a really f experiences both across countries and over time that could be informative. >> or it could be a good research project. >> i have done a bit of it. i'm wondering if you have looked into this, have thoughts on it. quick let me start with the

labor market data question. that's a great question. let me point out lee tucker, who is here from our staff. i had a meeting with him but before i came over here and he was raising exactly those points. talk to him afterwards and he will tell you what we are thinking. the quality of u.s. labor market data remains very high. when you have a survey, iw it's a poster child with a response rate has been in the 30's or something like that lately -- what you have there is , you know, just wider confidence around the estimate. it does not mean the estimate is wrong, just that it has a larges something we should definitely try to improve upon. i think this is a fantastic agency that does great work. they are well aware of these issues, and are thinking about ways to improve them. say is that

-- oh. the very interesting thing going on right now, and i'm sure you know i think it was embedded in your question, the difference between employment and payroll survey and household survey. the payroll survey has been picking up immigration better than the household survey right now, so that is an important thing to think aboutbroadly spen the context of the presentation i gave, i feel very confident in the quality of the indicators we are using. i mean, it's a great idea and would be a great project, and we have looked a little bit at that. i think the labor market and the fiscal policy emphasis are different in us versusin europes on keeping people on the job. we did a little bit of that. maybe more than a little with the paycheck protection program,

but broadly speaking, our significant fiscal spend■: was n unemployment insurance, checks, money to the state, and i think the fact that we have a 70% consumer spending economy and they have a 55% consumer spending economy made a big difference here. our fiscal policy went to consumers who have really carried the baton in keeping this recovery going. there fingerprints are very much on the macro dynamics i talked ab■c suspect is it's a little different in europe. i think one should do that exercise because the inflation . in addition, disinflation is somewhat global as well. we have done better than many countries in terms of disinflation, but others have engaged in some of that, too, but i think when one engages in that study, it is important to pay attention to the different

fiscal policies. the different policies that were implemented and their impact on full employment. for one thing, our unemployment rate went way up and came way down. that was not the case in many countries. it did not go up as much or come down as much. >> thanks very much for this presentation. some economists say we are moving from a disinflation every time where structural forces were pushing down inflation to more demographics,■) globalizatn , to a time where pressures will be on the opposite side. i'm wondering what you think of that argument this, how might that change the risk/reward around running a high-pressurel# economy that's kind of what you are advocating? >> sure. i think the lesson of the last

-- virtually the lesson of all the years we were reviewing the chapter most closely which i think would be theaswould be thn the general flatness of the billets of -- of the phillips curve, one can pursue full employment economies without undu w about inflationary pressures, and of course, if you just look at the basic architecture of the economic theory behind all■ thi, inflation should be stable. what i tried to do in my talk is to break out some unique factors that persisted in the pandemic, with constraint and supply and recognizing that that was very much a piece of pandemic necessarily structurally invented factor in

the economy going forward. i cannot claim to know what the phillips curve will be on the others of this. maybe it will be a little bit steeper, but i can tell you that through all the forecasts, i thinkat have been the most accurate have inflation continuing to stay on trend, so we come away from this chapter w that full employment and stable prices can very happily live together, and th iom perspective of working people. >> great. i think we have time for one last question. >> thanks very much for this presentation. i wonder how you feel about policies to ensure the kind of physical response that you are suggesting is needed.

because as we know, the pandemic kind of open a window for tax credits, higher unemployment, and so on, but that is a not easy thing. >> this speaks to uplifting the profile of automatic stabilizers . has written a lot on that point, and i think that work is very strong . it has interestingly been challenged on both sides of the aisle politically, and sometimes many politicians do not want to have choice taken. i think there is at least among economists and some enlightened legislators, a view that whatever can be more automatic should be because the timing of these things, to the

extent that there3 is political back and forth and delay, can cause real pain that can be avoided and should be to point , both at the micro level and at the macro level. i think while we can have good and should have arguments about automating elements of stabilizers in the economy, i think we would broadly be supportive of that, what is most important is that the next time we get a downturn that i'm pretty convincedhit with the voe cannot do anything because look what happened last time, and i think that would be a huge mistake. >> thank you. thank you all for joining us today both in person and online. we are proud and glad to have z)■/ been able to host the honorable jared bernstein, the 31st chair

of the council of economic advisers, for a presentation on the first chapter of the economic report of the president, 2024, the benefits of full employment. thank you very much. >> thank you so much. [captions copyright national cable satellite corp. 2024] [captioning performed by the national captioning institute, which is responsible for its caption content and accuracy. visit ncicap.org] [indiscernible chatter]

donald scott recently made history by becoming delaware's first black speaker of the house. tonight, a conversation with speaker scott, who talks about

the hurdles he has overcome, including spending almost eight years of prison. >> it has been breathtaking and amazing. i think about all the people who came before me who allowed me to think a lot of the pain and trauma that those people had to endure to get me where i am, that trauma and spurred the opportunity i have right now to serve as speaker, so i don't take that opportunity for granted. i'm very proud, and i feel a sense of responsibility and obligation to make sure i'm there for those people who have come before me. >> watch the full interview at 7:00 p.m. eastern on c-span. c-span now, ourvideo app, or ont c-span.org. >> c-span's "washington journal," a life form involving

you, discussing the latest issues, politics, and policy. coming up, discussing airline safety, federal oversight of the aviation industry, and multiple safety issues and incidents at boeing. and then an assistant scientist at the johns hopkins bloomberg school of public health talks about efforts that women lead in harmful chemicals in drinking water. celebrating their 20th anniversary of our annual studentcam documentary competition, this year, c-span askschool students across the country to look forward while considering the past. purchase events are given the option to look 20 years into the

future orin the past. in response, we have received inspiring and thoughtful documentaries from over 32 students from across 42 states. "innocence held hostage: navigating past and future conflicts with iran." >> its evidence that in the next 20 years, the united states must make more policy that places heavy restriction in all americans traveling to iran. not only will we see less hostage taking, but the united states will no longer have to participate in negotiations with iran. >> the top documentaries and are on c-span every morning and throughout the day beg on april 1. you can watch each of the 150 award-nn films any time.

>> view of government. we are funded by these television companies and more, including cox. >> this syndrome is extremely rare. but friends don't have to be. when you are connected, you are not alone. >> cox sports c-span as a public serce along with these other public television providers, giving you a front row seat to democracy. >> more now on the situation with francis scott key bridge in baltimore. national transportation safety board chair jennifer homendy briefed the press on the conditions that led to the bridge's collapse. she said it was too early to verify reports that the crash was due to a power failure from