anita's future and the potential for further european-- nato's future and the potential for further european expansi. and a look at anti-doping efforts ahead of this year's olympic glawmakers will hear tey from michael phelps and alliso schmidt. yo can watch our live coverage on t c or online at c-span.org. next, a look at the state of ■■&russia's defense industrial e as the war with ukraine continues, with details on russia's defense leadership, public opinion of the war, and russia's relationship with china and north korea. from the center for strategic and international studies, this is an hour and a half. >> the state of russia's defense industry two years after the war. s what we are going to talk abouttú today.an incredibly conversation and comes on the heels of a new report we released at csis looking at the

state of russia's defense industry. to report and the state of russia's defens industry, we have a fantastic panel. i'm joined first off by my colleague at csis, maria snegovaya,kett. maria is a senior fellow on russia and eurasia andadviser ws program at the center for naval analysis. ■w we are also joined by dara massicot, fellow at the carnegie endowment for international peace, our archrival across the street. we are thrilled she was able to brave the heat and cross the street for the conversation. ■ i'll start with you. let's jump right in. report a few months a that came on the heels of a report ago called ofn

it sums up the basic assessment that russia has found its feet and was able to ramp up industrial production. will turn to you as well. >> to write the report with my colleagues here, which we come to a sobering conclusion of the adaptation war more successfully than expected and as was pointed out in the title. we identify the key elements and components that helped first of all russia continues■ to rely te stockpile. nobody really knows how much i m

going through and on the battlefield we see they are more contemporary types of have those, they can keep goi. r factors russia is growing and 3.6% it is projected to keep going into this year 6.2% accog to the imf and that is partly the result of the ability to continue to accumulate the readiness and then reinvest it here is a with china. to actually see russia

chin veryed imports through interesting part in which the infl of the component to the se c of them coming from china it tends to correlate. we know why he's traveling to chin he is trying to achieve.■; but not least all those factors alsoon a accommodation for the more sophisticated military more cher substitutes. we see that russia■-■■j comnts results in the use of quality

and caper components but unfortunately russia does have a lot of those and it >> russia it seems has been able to rely on its huge stockpiles of reserve equipment and modernizing thah equipment. essentially it is good enough for the war at■/ hand. you were a critical contributor to this report andan talk a little bit about how russia's defense■' industrial production over the last year how that impactede plans in ukraine. there's sort of that it went to war with ind february, but now the army that has now td

maybe you can talk about how russia may have had to do evil you are coming from sunny florida which is less than washington, d.c. right now. >> it was interesting to work on this report to try to update based on wha we a■; seeing on the battlefield. a russia has several things going f number one, identifying the massive stockpiles of t dating m the cold war that could be modernized and number two and probably the most important element is sustaining casualties without impacting the overall performance. and of course going from last year and into this year switching from using■t■cte military companies and a lot of contractors and military lot of personnel, the population has a

lot of resources and this is something that ukraine has identified as a very important element and something we've identified in the report so it makes the systems and the ability but partially enough of the mistakes from the previous not to repeat them in combat over the past six to nine months. that doesn't mean that russia is achieving its stated goals. it's moving forward very slowlyt it's capable of sustaining the casualties and■í moving forward gear with lots of people involved in the process of operating d ve and redesigning and fixing weapons systems. a lot of times this is done as enterprises and those that were

expanded to accommodate the demand with people working double and sometimes even triple shifts. >> let me follow up and ask it does seem russia is struggling to produce the sameodof equipmes producing before the war. has it been ableo build new or is it largely refurbishing? maybe you can talk about how it is able to equip its forces and are the tactics that it's playing out right now? ..vz

you do not need very sophisticated systems for lots of uavs in the air movement large-scale maneuvering is very dangerous. small quantities of soldiers and equipment. in that type of a an older tank which is protected with flat armor is good enough. this is what we've seen over the past year or so since the release of her early reports good enough is in good enough to try to takere. before i bring in

how has resupply its defense industrialo sustain this given a year ago we were sayingt's really struggling to find replacement parts. >> much of the same w■@& it's going to beat russia in that regard. but globalization has to offer■ with the vast border we still

the key components or elements of semi conct their countries contribute to this or less so rerouting. the products are going, the components are going elsewhere near russian borders. it's an effort to comply with when the important there quite careful andó? they e very careful not toircumvent sanctions directly. with north korea■p% will becomea more important factor in thisdy. this directly violates the sanctions that have nothing to lose. we see the ballistic missiles

going straight from north korea so it varies pretty irrationally in its opportunities going all over the world. we see it foreign affairs of thr high-level russia officials traveling all the time at some point this stream of shrink. and does not have as vast sure we can't imagine there are still limits to what they have and what they can even in the war to identify

certain weaknesses example russia isot sustainable and it comes to showing andeen . the key problem with the dynamic of the export controls. the circumvent left and right. we report they're created in the last their shell companies created deliberately f this purpose. but two, to the extent this is the problem essentially we need b targeting. so far itçpas n successful. having said that it's an

important area to an extent export controls additional costs on russia is that indeed the components russia and we are reciting some of the military producers who are complaining about selling weapons to the bus with consist prices. it would not be fair to say sanctions doately we could do m, much better. >> they work or not are they are providing sort of like a tax that is being put on russia supply chain. a transaction cost. let me bring you in for am curious for your and how you see russia having responded since the war began to ramping up itsk

at like airport so much. >> as my bright here. [laughter] >> we are neighbors. i do hear people quoting from your report all the time. i think you've done really excellent job outlining the problem with something as complex and this i find myself in agreement a lot for anyon■ else who haso the int the tone very beginning. in terms of where they are at and how i seehis, i'm thinking a lot about reconstitution. it is restoring a damaged unit or damage it military to mint level combat capability. when we look out and see russian forces using bmp lawn we are really, really old equipment.ors not going to work as well but

there are using them. they have thousands of themut and's the far east. that's really great for me too see other people out there in social media nerd out on these facilities in the same way i dof tracking going on to them. thisn what's going on in the defense revealed preferences.igight ■:uteyren't maximizing what they haven't triple shifts bring in prisoners, trying to fill the labor gaps as well as they can. they are they are increasing. the space has pou cannot create new space in this factory unless you line, or retool it with materials from china. but then you cannot be the war effort. or you take part in the factories for exports and lose that market share for the part

of theactory dedicat■]edight now to repairing. ked in. why they cno exception of areasf expertise which is they are making new investments into new factorie very dramatic increase in those capabilities. >> a lot of labor challenges for them. when it's data point rushes is specific curse is cond harmful to their fertility. it means you cannot be a welder or works with certain kinds of petrochemicals means you cannot do certain things reled jet fuel or anything like that. think about these choices they

are making. it's just like how theyeir manpo not want to mobilize endlessly absently have to which w once. we would prefer to offer money. will recruit from violent that is more stability we like 0z choice in the defense industrial base not sinking money at this time converting multiple civilian fact firms. they have compelled labor them not change the laws to bring in more women. their defensive base.

it seems to me at least r now of a really important witn next state armament program. here's a defense minister they were talking about. this 10 year rearmament program. that's on track at the new team is going changes. that new plan will be very revealg for what they do next.le economy that similar and you convert to change how the

society is structured country engages and i hope it is short. it's!7 hard to something to be extended. sam, see some of the challenges perhaps to the russian defense industrial ramp-up. i mostly agree i think she outline by relativ c bureaucrats talk about his performance and that stand

behind military k performanc a f new defenser. multi- civilian background. in the specific connections in the military did not actually serve. as a massive uphill battle to maintain a rushesn ukraine as well as to continue the russian president has tasked minister possible cooperation with non- civilians and in this

important to consider how this new defense ministerurage n it comes to maintaining the pace and getting weapons and systems out into the field. some of the practices for a m tf systems into the$o fie. it's a massive bureaucracy. there's a lot of corruption. that too has to be factoredntth. it's really a mix. this competent people moving and authorities of power there's an absolutely massive machine which is very slow to move in slow to adapt. darrell is right to identify some f■ especially with or.

after consider russia does not necessarily have to do that's good enough. weapons and tactics are goodzv enough to be considered as well. drones specifically.■ complex cs constantly evolving.■9b out ways to crack the code that ■real issues when it comes to drones. they shown an ability to evolve

and adapt? middle-aged wrong lonsuch whiche russian name. such as its own and re- developments on some of these . when it comes to and most militaries around the world are completely unprepared for the impact of tactical■$ almost one 100% most supply to the russian committees.me from volunteer■ú■i most are flown with great come m civilian efforts as well but those are purchased on china directly. it is a mix for the russian■

military relatively stae development with military grade especially those with reconnaissance. relies on the civilian efforts. as we the defense minister of opening up the defense ministry innovation. a concern some of the using tactical systems. all of those rely on importantc. they are simple from chinese components thatcapacity. russia claims substituting compm china. that goes for ukraine as well. substitute russian

government complex to come up w less on china. in peacetime this becomes even more difficult this is where russia's reliance on china time comes i t to deeper into russia's new defensebefore goine follow couple of other systems we are seeing employed i tar with iacts the russian use of glide bombs ■nas well as missile strikes against in particular ukraine's energy infrastructure in earlyan

minister of energy. the challenges are incredibly significant some of the four most experts on the impact of russian missiles and drones are olks in ukraine are figuring out how to rebuild their energy infrastructure. hunt does seem the war has shifted in some ways a war to russia having more impact more effects. i am curious how much is tied to production. we'll start with you and then go down the line very will speak about the operational impacts talking witjh that glide bombs getting longer range as time goes on they are a huge problem for ukrainian forces operating ground, command post, cities,ald progress glide bombs to clarify

are effectively older russian munitions essentially dumb bombs but then they attach a kit to it can target somewhat precise manner. not as accurate as we would consider.e at which they have ud is gone up quite in the it is a really big problem.y in as far as i can tell they'reíb coming from t have the authority to use weapons they do xcept for a few in crimea. this is an ongoing and prohibitive to strike russian aircraft the just returned. that is one issue. the energy grid is another

ago down to 15% capacity theyth been chipping away 2022 they continue to do it. cal if you look at the strikes that just happened in the last few days■0 electricity. you cannot have factories populating supplying power cheer and industrial any power there's many follow on effects to this if about populated areasustry russian strategy.it does make lo uncomfortable for civilians it's not livable they become refugees it pushes the chaos put the pressure on the government to sufor peace that's where we are at right now in the

beginning it was not very effective russia did not have the droneslementing these attacn ukrainian energy grid. now they haveh. loosing strike patterns becomero adjust to the ukrainian air defense systems they cat and moe tight right now are seeing a lot of adaptation in real-time. >> there is ang population element works every time russian air force takesff it looks like it's going to do a strike everyone gets anover. if that is happening continuously could be hard for people. maria, sam, how much of this the russian defense industry ramping up■king their missile production to ramp up what russia could use these expensive missiles targeting energy

infrastructure as opposed to battlefield effects. >> oh quickly jump in given the statistics 80% destroyed by the russian strikes. that gives the general picture. my own friend and ukraine every call come every time we talk to demonstrate how bad the situation is. even if i adjustments■ i am able to substitute for.■ some will be more qualified to comment but general been pointed out one of the key elen is the emergencerious typee

imported directly from china you can purchase them■n a websites which is been compiled into this chain of drones. each of them have a different wg quite efficient. it seems fort russia and society this is unfortunately where voluntring e side into beg been quitesuccessful in supplyi. the built drones only 30,000 per month. that's alluncsteer

efforts on the ground unfortunately. >> one of the more interesting when describing the other side's advantage. for example truck tactical drone using tactical numbers. what is come to light at least after our report and we do rely on ukrainian numbers and nts is that even if the russian civilian sociees ca manufacturing a staggering number of drones a small fraction are goi t we take manufactured monthly a lot of them are not going to stop birth for quality not going to fly out of the box right away. some will flightal kilometers and crash.■z both sides with ukrainian russian forces

everything including their own and the ability to fly drones pilots.h sides russian civil society right now stepping up in a completely done with private financing. sometimes with state and regional financing. again mostly on people's own the large number of manufacturers comes down to a much smaller number but that num■u thousand to sevel tens of thousands of drones use monthly is enough to maintain this what we are seeing right now in the field. we do have to acknowledge h unprecedented involvement but civil society. lots of volunteers some sort ous

as they are capable of mobilizing society and people across the country. in many cities and they are capable of delivering supplies for the capable of assbl motorcycles, vehicles, cars, assembled medical kits, masks or clothing and everything the soldiers need. on russian telegm channels are daily pleas for very specific set of■ó includes medical supplies in chinese made helicopters add to the ability of the russian defense industry to manufacture larger more s and so what we have towards the end of tport ia combination of commerciall as my components are adding to the v1 strengthening the russian military overall.

>> let me turn to the shakeup at the russian defense after more than a decade is now( ouch. there is a new defense minister. when the finance economic background thi h seen not focusing on defense industrial production preparing for a long others have highlighted maybe this is a shakeup that things are not going so well. her interpretation it's a beginning could not adjust one ion time to start with a new what do you make of the transition, shakeup, whatever you want to call it at the russian defense ministry. what does this pretend for the future of the warff

>> we learned a lot about their motivations or how they do things. it is important to give a brief history. they're very close friend they go and have barbecues out in the middle they're verythey extend to the e industrial base in the oligarchs who also listen to and evenwithy bloggers appears quite intense at times and within uniform military itself i view how t moved him isaac recognition by the kremlinout anymore. he is my good friend he's been him he was given a very good position. initially i have flashbacks he was a defense minister from 2008 until 2012 until he was deposed

by the fsb for corruption. he was in with a financial background part he was brought in as chief of general staff to initiate a comprehensive reform to break a lot of china and break it quickly he was empowered to dos by the kremlin. complete top to bottom organizaon starting a new procurement program a lot of training programs for the he made enemies of quickly. but also w not on board. we are talking 25% as part of force reductions. cle money, investing the corruption s andinvolved in his own corruption scheme i w into trouble. the house getting rated there were bags of money..

i initially thought about he is an outsider. as an is an economic mind. he is not a bureaucrat that can understand everything that i going to happen underneath and within the general staff and the people who report toim. and he is not an outsider pretties been to moscow for a deological comes from family of■0 i understand why he was■& sufficiency. in this and that. inheriting is a structu incredibly resistant to people looking into financial flows. so i don't think you'll do well a point they are long-standing ministry,

general staff. if someone comes in and starts a yanking on those chains and investigating the money that's when problems will happen. this is going to be an interesting experiment sprayed his personality type i do n whe. people who work for him in the he's a corky economist. quirky economist. i'm trying to figure how that leadership sells going to make sense for that ministry of defense. we will see what he does ago with the state armament is a lor plan. you have to have that money lior it. that will be the first thing. >> i want to bring you in.at doe ■k about what he's planning to doing? or are we just going to wait for the long term armaments?

>> he said he wants to increase innovation. but there are powerful lowest level of innovation tryi tplugged in who does not wo give up market because every 20 year did get going with group x. i hear what he is saying and it's the right thing to say structural nitty-gritty where it's made i don't know. >> i will add the thought meyer inn most levels of they were. grounds in the global commander blaming the military corruption on the lack of weapons, ll bad state of aff. can salvage the situation. but again he's going to be done

wi a machinery that's used to change.opportuni. famous video clips that comes from a few yearsto putin and isn sector russian drone development is on the■; components almost u. president putin acknowledges that and want something to be nen and this is now. the ministry of defense position of the defense minister is extraordinarily high profile position. all eyes will be on him. he's got very little room to make mistakes. he will be careful in how he selects certain projects how he applies himself. he willl with almost complete dominance most of the

ministry of defense of procurement acquisition. he will have to deal with other massive enterprises which are doing their own thing for years. and do not necessarily want to change. what in the moreeresting elements from this war is how quicklrussian soldiers are capable of adapting some of the by volunteers on a very small scale on evenly having different levels of success they are capable of adapting not just on aerial vehicles but on ground vehicle development. this runs counter to massive dit times reconnaissance that likey other enterprises.■b is unclearo do he know all eyes are on him attention so be careful of what kind of votes he

rock. we'll turn it over to you. you are a long-time reader of the tea leaves but comes the russian elite. what do you makehe shakeup we have just seen? what's i definitely agree adjustment effort to fight corruption. ic sense of the russian military. despite putin is a problem. i agree there's an interesting it looks fairly smart. it also looks like an adaptat some pointed out in a preparation for long-term. may not be extremely courageous and someone would have not been corrupt at least though every

disappointment. another interesting development within the russian elite. and one thing becomes verystrai. we see an increasing number who the daughter a will. [inaudible] mo r regards to ifically and appointed appoied é defense minister. a very high position. and how they will deliver but to me what it says is first of all and deliberate effort to make the system beyond putin we

do not know who is going to be the next. but that is an effort to makt sustainable. by replacing members with newcomers who are loyal and insured by them belonging to the right network. to the right family. which to me is an inven future. while we think of these people not beingññ say these are meaning they probably believed the same stages of ideas and western ideas that putin embraces. makes a point to incorporate them into the the system gets used to them and they get used to the syste it isn't producible over the long term the system is becoming

increasing cse off.v■= it's probably quite harsh to break through. you're likely toe putin's guard at some point. his example has illustrated. exbits part of the late sovietu. and the corrupt. one difference is the we have seen that despite that was aimed at undermining the foundations of the system. successful. it's much more apt constitute tf

the west. >> is a great way to run a government. does not strike me with tppoint. i could see a lot of pusk and the bureaucracy and i am curious what is your take on this? is it resident m be hap >> is trying to think is who of whowould be so bold to compln about putin's niece survive. ag. her interesting. putin has looked up for her and

her husband for decades. i think they were given ownership of a coaline that is pretty lucrative financially preceding which was a direct appointment. she had a psychology degree from the late '80s ear 90s. defenders of the fatherland phone a new organization could since the start of the war that allegedly to help russian veterans get their benefits and reintegrate back into society but that what it is nominally supposed to do for the efficacy of this organization was not particularly well-funded to do that humongous task. to do been set up in every region. this organization medical professionals and reach out to different groups to russia internationally to understand the challenges ptsd and put her

in charge and change tone a lot of spoin events which is them. it became more some region's affective summits not based on the people working there. to be elevated from that with the deputy defense minister position to important signal.■w russian when they want to admit it or not they do have a significt coming home when these demobilized. putting that niece in the job as important. also jobs foramily. this is nepotism its. it is a signal how to read it

reintegrate veterans make sure they do not come h put them in eight mercenary ng. quick summary thoughts on that before we return here? i agree d assessment. i do not know enough about. one of the p watching right now is the slow replacement of some of the cadr. the highest levels of power in the kremlin. represents pt trend. it's a way to see right now. >> let's turn to north korea. to kick off the conversation. putin did a trip seemingly throwing out the window half a

century of russian action ■ononproliferation. and it really sort of engaging with north korea in a way we have not seen in the very long what does this say about the ruf is this the user going tois dealer and get another re- up? how do you all perceive■d of ths visit? what implications you take from it from russia's warort? correct we start with you and go to sam and maria >> i am, quite an interesting trip. from how they presented that.

poker faces much better when he went over it was a last and pay some respects his poker face was be there. but that what they are truly ans i've for 25%, 50% don't fire properly or don't fire at all. it came in critical point before mobilization had increase them. i had opportunity to help the "washington post" just today the story came out about allhet arem north korea into russia. their explosive cargo, that's all we know it's a marked exosive. one of the most dangerous are categories of shipping them across to russia there any where from artillery to rockets and missiles and everything.

other components going in as russia has very few partners north korea is one of them. congratulations i guess. putin's posture when he was meeting versus meeting in north korea. very forward leaning not slouch back. what is your take on what this says about russia's current ongoingilitary efforts? are artillery to match russia? what takeaways do you have from this visit it's avoiding sanctions for many decades. it military and

its systems into new fighting systems. i think that is highly sought after by russia. i believe it last year russia and iran special meeting for their business people and iran basicallyd russia does not have to relearn how to avoid sanctions. i can just use a experience. i think the same three separate rt learn a lot about sanction busing and h t it is assured by china and a handful of other states. this experience for russia. apart of course fm the fact most of north koreaactually a lt military systems for the whole copy paste princip o north korean.

>> what is your read for more of a foreign policy angle? does this mean essentially russia's first and only priority right now is its war effort? that has become front and center and front of mine for everything that russian gauges globally progress war efforts, yes but against whom? o focus on this between russia and ukraine for understandable reasons. this sector with the military alnment russia north korea documents at this time they nd military assistance guaranteed. it goes beyond just that. to me russia is responding to the western assistance to ukra b hey you are supporting the countrytg that is important to me. i am going to do the same to yos south korea. that is one of the reasons why

and a lot of concern that was not support for ukraine by creating this alternative 6/reliance. we know also north korea is listic missiles which has been identified on the groundis laboo . to prove that their interventions. the extent to wo be a major dea. korea with the resources it is clear putin is up to some long term counter of the west.

buttial to create as much trouble as possible by. >> encourage our vie■g to look at some of water colleagues when the former experts on north korea has done a lot o this. he highlighted the potential to boomerang and a negative way for russia positively for that u.s. and south korea and and cementing ourhip in the trilateral bond as well south korea potentially doing ■vaine which is something they have perhaps inh+cad ogress so quickly jump in. it's one of the ways this can backfi i clear where china isn't pleased with the cooperation between russia and north korea to understand if china is kept in the loop. we will wait and see. >> for about half an hour left. we turned a little bit we are

assessing from the acquainting own industrial production as well as the pro- ukrainian side matching some of what we are seeing. we have gearing up and how we see ukraine will start that on■ the second half few minutes there and go and look at where we thinkhe war is ahead in the challenges ahead. maybe i could start with. how is ukraine responding to this current dynamic? the forces being on the offensive. they're pummeling,u■i ukrainian infrastructure. ukraine is ramping upcould talkt that. and how we see

of where we are in the conflict how does it russian offensive worked out? and what does that kind of statement where this world go? [laughter] that i l question. the industrial base have their own advantages and disadvantages. where the ukrainians excel is innovation and adaptation at lower levels the center's ability to provide you need to develop on the ground networks and solutions and move quickly on and disseminate on it. ukrainian system is much more rant of that. recognizing there is grassroots development, rnd going on with things being communicate between units won up in the vertical and take time to matriculatepó down. and it's a big advantage

favorite wer ukraine ■é1? and take a lot of time not efficient at all so much red get through from concept development to actual fielding in the hands of■ on the civilian organization dee industrial firms trying to create solutions. reject international partners and get deals s■igned and having to run it through. i still see some of push and pull between the soviet past and wanting to have an western outlook and approach v like this. especially, and this is a real challenge for them. the russians from the start of■d the war and continuously have been more effective at targeting

industrial sites that many other aspects of their straight campaign the guy after large factories had gone down to medium lel factors and supply them and hit them with missiles. to even little individual workshops.■( dangerous. it detects a they have the ability to do it. move these things around a. >> they are attracted to an incredible amount of worhat's being federated. you expose civilians to it if it's in the middle of a city. it's very complicated. very complicated but they are ty can. of their disadvantages and russia has a■l functional defense industrial base. the russians look at what is

working he side. and then they bring it home faster in scale and kinda flip it around. the biggest challenge i see right■2 is the russian isr strike, sorry. it's getting really, really ti using drones and then having the ability to put in6 rb m on it in minutes. >> advance missiles progress they are ballistic so there quick. newell target attack comes they're targeting patriot. they are high tge and are succeeding. quickly targeting issue without the beginning of the campaign the russians may see a target but they cannot strike the target as fast as we could for instance. nowhey'vehohat >> they shrunk it in same expert on

russiawk cycle. others suspect they are somehow mercial satellite imagery provided from china or getting it through shell the ukrainians have noted this to a sites will bed and then a couple days later it's got a russian missile how have they created shell companies to■ get that strategic isr problem? >> one the things we have seen is ukraine using its own indigenous drone production capabilities.@1 particularly when at sea pushing back the russian black sea fleet. was i odesa the ceilings werei there were ships coming through.

also strikes on russian territory using ukrainian owned develop technology. sam, is the focus of ukraine's defense industry is it drones? is that where they effort? they are hoping to get to loosen other systems. but the strikejg■ they're going to do themselves. are they creating■h labor? >> is definitely one of their major efforts but we see how successful they have been with striking so many russia of long-range aerial that can strike up to 1500 kilometers in sight which but most of russia's population industryl within the reame drones which he indicated their quite successful

going after the russian fleet. that is not the only concentratin ukrainian defense industry. they've been on the cutting edge against russian drones and it is not just drones but atomic warfare, reconnaissance, development of different types of kinetic systems to shoot down drones. systems to design from both older cohort designs with some of the newer designs that are high techw into the control systems and information. and data analysis sysms a information sharing systems to enable all of these different ■!mi points to identify gets. in many ways the ukrainians are ahead of the entire world and it gives a run for its money to be more established military men in the world. >> back to the big broad

question i asked a little bit where do you see the current state of the russian offensive? i ask this because now almost two months or roughly two months on fromit's supplemental. it was very clear ukraine was holding on by its fingernails. but now, correct me if i am wrong here, eightst does not feel like russian resulted in much more they may be and there. yet russia is throwing a lot ou. did russia miss it's a moment? and then what does that say the current state of the war putin has to go to north korea to rip a have the winds of the war

shifted in ukraine's direction because of u.s. assistance? how do you see the current state tern aid right now? challenges that were weapons asap. they have that now it'slong in and paid the other issue that is not been resolved as manpower and ukrai unit. the ukrainians are aware of this problem. there is not a large enough. the changes on the■- margin that look into recruiting prisoners.g toward a deeply unpopular mobilization they are not doing that. we passed that worst of in terms of the weapon scarcity issue. s him blunting a

rush it right now. they have created a p reinforcing and it is very cle . i think they want to keep pushing a few critical roads are not far from his critical roads. ■ to no combat experience. succesg

story short that sector has been reinforced and now it's stopped. to the question russia miss a moment, well, it's been interesting for me to watch squander the advantages were given to him by predecessor, 300,000 troops, immediately they licked their wounds and road out the ukraine ian counteroffensive. this is what he is going to do. five attacks.ignature. so far they're able to calibrate that they're getting, they're getting a certain amount each month and losing ataever the rel numbers, 30,000 a month, i don't be the effects on

the ground, they are calibrating tightly but this i why you see them not being able to push forward despite having all of the advantages, despite having artillery advantages, despitebsg else. they are inflicting cuts on the ukrainia f not using their forces wisely, i'm not going to tellhe it but e they're at. >> so how do you things playing out on the front and maybe the role of western aid and its importance? >> think it's important to knowledge that russia has capacity to ukrainiancapabiliti. has do so■= in 202020, 2023 and this year and can probably do the same n year as well.

as well as the combination of military aiv■gilian equipment to accomplish its many tactical goals, it is capable o doing so simply because there's no acquisio highest levels, something that we have to acknowdgwork conducted by sociee west, everything would be different by now but in russia things are done from the top and there's no real resistance of pe and form to what the russian government wants and what the minister of defense ise to do the same and actually continue to gain territory even to exert certain ukraine forces. western aid is extremely important in this scenario. ukraine has been able to hold and advances by using aerialacks drones, for example, but evene o substitute of using

shells, onceid arrives it would give ukraine much needed ability, give themd about at dit parts of the front. we have to acknowledge once again that the ukrainian front is very l and forces are committed at different levels,mt parts of the front that exhibit weaknesses on both sides and it's important to get western it can continue with pressure and respond to russian counterattack with its -- >> i maybe want to down torn to wh this war headed. marina, maybe i will start witht putin's ability to conduct war,n

high tolerance for casualties s the russian support in the sense that we have credible casualty numbers, as you mentioned, though, the economy is running hot, you'll see a debate insidet debate is not the rht way, angst that may develop with all the money in the defense industry but challenges on the social side. curious how you see russia the kind of russian public, for ssia elite, long-term support particularly if there's no, there are gains but no sort of, you know, structural strategic gains after another year we entd of a similar pla afraid we are learning about the

russian society as the one -- our and forecast as we see the responses to have russian society to particularly at the start of the war many expected that we will see sf advance dynamic where the accumulation of of the casualties will eventually convert into some the ground but despite the fact offy outnumber what the casualties by tenfold or moreve we are talking about 15,000 total in afghanistan, something like that. it still hasot today anything remotely close which suggests to me personally that the origin of the system most likely at the time in which

the real origin to have problems came from the economic problems, the fatigue with the system which then was triggered by the casualties and=h the system, right now we see something entirely difrent where as we -- some have pointed out the response of the russian make team to the war has actually resulted in quite unprecedented growth of the russian economy for now with t it's and i'm coming to that in a little bit and a situation has improved dramatically specifically for■ losers in the p we see military industry opens up and recruits more people in the regions traditional attempt to lag behind also the equipment was very quite successfully justed after original

edition which was not popular, targeting, employment and people receive a lot of money in some instances enough to push --o dynamic, you know, given the value t in russia, i would not expect wt used to be several months ago division of where things are

going, but it also suggest that -- the regime economy, probably, we have seen major crisis including the lapse happened after the -- so did the russian revenues. this is when we will see all of the dynamics that we have been discussing todaymbing lack of in the military industry, lack of suppt payments to society, eventual will definitely convert in decrease for support of the war but unfortunately we are nowhere near yet and want clear to take away from this is for us to try and do better in t revenues. >> yeah, no, targeting oil revenues is critical how is a big question, somethi we will hopefully we will do work on. if you want

global oil prices, the united states is largest priers, you are trying to take off, it's 10% market share. tactical innovations that■v we should be looking out for in the next year, developments such as in the drone space or is this going to be sort of back ta bigger player in the world. you're looking out for in evolving battlefield or battle sea, battle face and air in the

survivingpe? >> well, i know russian side alooking at counteruas technology and there are a lot of companies complaining they can't get the attention ofhe russian state leo develop something, we can implement it, so this is at fors and also for the ukrainians as well. in terms of game-changing technology, everybody is looking going to solve it, and there's not one. don't look to long-range attacks to solve the problem. it has to be -- it has to be a strategy. you to define what itsfectry look like and marshal your resources and actions in pursuie pretty soon for some kd of decision to be clarified

point at least for the role that we play in town. what can we expect forward through tend of this year and early into next, russie recovery of vehicle field. maybe that will change now that ukraine has more artillery shells but they are starting to realize at this is not an infinite and your report only 2# maybe 75 to 80%, they do commit to a permanent change and t start building new factories and they really make that

investment to reconstitute the force as quily as possible and pushing aside some of the s that they have, we are not there yet but good to be vigilant. >> sam, over to you. >> the russian military isá■ on the record for 3 distinct priorities involve involvement in ukraine. one using artificial intelligence for data analysis an battlefield situation. number two, development of differty aerial drones whether that includes using technologies from the civilian start-up community remains to be seen and finally, developing counterbattery fires, these are the 3 priorities thatt of attention that aren't receiving fundin b be seen what russia's nearly large bureaucratic mac i■ment tt

especially with a relatively former at the top of the entire structure and they would be able to take control of the implement the technologies and initiatis military structure. >> let me ask finally about us r ramping up our production enough and by us i mean the kind of ingeneral supporters of ukraine, u.s., europe, other countries around the world. the eu is actually meeting the end of this week, they are going to discuss something called euro put the money to put down on contracts they are unlikely to agree to that. but it strikes me still sort of falling short a bit on the kind ide the supplemental my understanding tr

production of artillery, that's going to be ramping up. are we just sort of always lagging behind a bit where russia is or are we lagging way far behind, how do in terms of -- if we just project out that u.s. supportore will continue as is? >> we've ramped up a lot in terms of artillery rounds, we went from being dramatically far you know, not equalizing but not just for us but for allies german companies that have been particularly forward-leaning in this regard like ryan and what es give us, ting russians would like nothing more to convince us that the only way to it not being escalitory, there's an

entire style of war that the united states hone and improve and made pretty great and we are not using those cab because they are escalatory. i challenge not to let the you,, to your larger question, though, i would say there's a few areas that they should be a wake-up call two years ago is not with respect to air defenses, weaveloshortage of th. patriot is a very good system. thereatriots, we are talking about asking for intercepters from partners to keep feeding defenses for ukraine. this is a huge problem. it's a problem because well defended neither is nato. these are some of our partners in asia demand the middle east,

this is -- hts from you? >> i think we should be more.ning to i think ukrainians know what they need and want. ukraines have been studying the russian threat very directly and they actually have very important lessons learned fortas and so actually absorbing a lot of that knowledge into structure, into our acquisition, developing pipelines be important to go forward. >> great, well, it have to leave it, we are at time. but i think it's been a fascinating conversation again. it's back in stock, the state of russia's defenses iustry a two years of the war, credit t my coauthors, nick and, of course, y

online at our website, can find everything that dera is putting out. sam thanks for joining us from florida, maria as always. if you this conversation also please take out■t■w your pe and where -- you listen to your podcast bring up that app and tn roulette where we focus on you can check out the staff podcast where we look at aotnvon union and nato, nato s incredibly steaming in hot doinf coverage on the russiane for that. thank you so much for tuning in.

>> mike johnson rlas former republican congressman bill johnson. on the forembers will coy bills, including legislation seekin country -- block countries receiving foreign aid from the -- and to coat international trafficking of fennel and other synthetic opid in the meantime the senate continues its recess over the july 4 holiday. lawmakers wl turn for votes on monday, july 8. mstc c-span two. watch of our congressional coverage with our free video app c-span now or online at c-span.org. products, peril,