>> this podcast is a repeat of a q&a program from november 4, 2005. is the featured guest ronald klineman is the author of the book "assassinations, threats and the american presidency." >> since 1979 in partnership with the cable industry, c-span has provided complete coverage of the halls of congress. from senate floors to congressional hearings, party briefings and meetings. a front-row seat of how issues

are debated and decided with no commentary, no interruptions and completely unfiltered. c-span, your unfiltered view of government. host: we are joined by kirk bado of the national journal hotline. remind us about the hotline and work you do there. guest: the hotline is a trade publication. we have a twice daily newsletter that tracks campaigns all over the map with presidential down to state legislators. the last few weeks have been like our super bowl, christmas and 4th of july. host: and world cupment guest: the olympics as well. throw that in there. >> you wrote an article with the era of last year democrats were dreading the slog to chicago but

now they are giddy. guest: the vibes are good right now after this month of complete disarray after biden's debate performance. deposition were so worried not just losing the white house but they were worried about the senate and more than double digit losses in the house. all the anxieties they had pent up the last year or so with lingering questions about biden were answered in the worst ways. now after biden has stepped aside and harrison almost completely consolidated the party and will be the eventual nominee this anxiety has let loose. it is like a sugar high with democratic enthusiasm skyrocket the last week or so since harris emerged as the heir apparent. you are looking at enthusiasm among younger voters, gen z and

others that were not going to vote for biden. that era is that harris starts moving ahead and you see it not necessarily in the polling right now but in the enthusiasm of democratic donors. harris has raised over $200 million in the last week which is 200% more than what she and biden had on hand. the democratic campaign committees have raised record sums. host: you called it a sugar high. after a sugar high you crash. how long do we expect the high to last? guest: we have 99 days until the election, even less when early voting starts in virginia at the end of september. but democrats can kind of ride this sugar high a little bit

until the convention two weeks from now because we will have a vice presidential announcement and then the convention you could see a conventional bounce from harris and her running mate. this is squashing any hope for a post-convention bounce for trump. the news of biden stepping aside harris ascension as blotted out the sun on post-convention or not talking about a post-assassination attempt where there is rallying around the candidate. according to polling and we need more data, but there's been no bump for trump since the convention, which is huge we there's such a narrow margin between the two. host: i want to ask you about position. this is a real clear polling. this is a graph -- it is not

that obvious but a line where july 21 biden withdraws so you can see trump beginning on biden, here is the withdrawal, then here is harris everyone is it too early to see? because it still looks like trump is up about 48%, harris about 46%. guest: it is still way material to tell what harris -- way too early because harris's wins above replacement. right now she is inheriting biden's polling. the up side for her and democrats is that, yes, the floor for biden and harris is the same which is a wipeout. but the potential of harris is so much higher. if you are a democrat seeing that you should be worried. you have a lot of work to do. there's a lot of good feeling but they have a lot of work in the next 99 days. they are playing catch-up.

in the national polling average they probably need to win the popular vote by four or five point, maybe six to win the electoral college. host: as you say, it is only 99 days. we certainly understand the challenges of that compressed campaign. but could it be an advantage for her? guest: it could. it gives republicans a little less time to define to she is. she were struggled last week to find an attack line. they are trying to focus their members on attacking her on policy instead of her race or gender which has been difficult for some surrogates in the g.o.p. but this allows her to microwave a campaign instantly. she is inheriting the biden infrastructure, raises a lot of money. up like say if you had gretsch whitmer or somebody else they

would have had to create their own nationwide network. she gets that from biden right now. there's more enthusiasm in those key groups of democrats that they need to get across the finish line. host: if would like to call in and make a comment or ask a question of our guest, you can do so. our loans are by parties, democrats are 202-748-8000, republicans are 202-748-8001 an independents, 202-748-8002. former president obama endorsed vice president harris. how big a deal is that and how long does that last? guest: i think it was because he conspicuously didn't endorse her immediately. host: do we know why? guest: he said he wanted an on process and let the process play out, see how harris could do in a fast moving situation like

this. but, as we saw, any of her would-be challengers immediately consolidated as the consensus peck so there was no other path for him but to indoors her. i don't think it was malice or trying to play the field. i think he was trying to not weigh in and let the party sort this out. he's been less interested in party politics and building up infrastructure so let the party ham it and he came in and was the kerry on top of the sun daye -- sundae for harris. host: who how do we know what a what is her strategy? guest: we are in what i call 2.0. the fundamentals are the same. the same six states will be deciding the presidency. she is not going to look to

expand the map out to, you know, ohio or down to florida. she is going to concentrate on those section states but they might change a little bit from biden strengths in the rust belt. there is hope she can get georgia back into the democratic clem, that she fares better in arizona than biden has, nevada as well. those sun belt states. she's been spending a lots of time in north carolina as well. she picked roy cooper as a running mate you could see her spending more time and north carolina is purple with a tinge of red. it gives democrats more options. biden's path of industry was really narrow. harris's could be more multi-facetted. >> you mentioned this is johnson seeks to quash d.e.i. type attacks on harris.

what do you know of that as far as backlash of alarms attacking vice president harris's race and gender? guest: when your head line we are telling our members not to be racist that is a problem. you have seen some members of the republic party in more conservative areas use that battle attack against her calling her a d.e.i. candidate conflating biden's advice to put a black on the court. it kind of distracts from the issues. it distracts from more solid attacks against harris on her record especially republicans want to focus on the down ballot races in the competitive house and senate races tying vulnerable democratic candidates to harris more or less left leaning statements from 2000 which was basically to the left.

that is what they want to focus on the. now they have to have emergency discipline and that comes not just from speaker johnson but trump and he's not been the most disciplined candidate in any of his reversible runs. host: last time year here we were talking about president biden's effect on down ballot. what are we looking at now? guest: we are seeing more enthusiasm on the democratic side. like i said, the house campaign had one of its best fund-raising days in the 24 hours after biden stepped aside and harris became basically the de facto. it was like 24 hours after the dobbs situation. same for the senate candidates as well. we are still having to parse through what is going through with polling in a few weeks. there was an emerson college polling last week that showed

vulnerable senate democrats are way ahead of harris in the battle groundsment s&p as biden but my theory is it will have a bigger affect on the house than senate. if you look where there are the most vulnerable seats for republicans it is blue states. in california, new york, those urban centers as well. with harris consolidating and basically securing the follow nation there is more enthusiasm for groups of voters in those areas. we are thinking younger voters, gen z, hispanic and black voters. you are seeing more enthusiasm there which was a problem with biden. it was not that they would switch to republican but stay home. you look at one in southern california i would be support worried that harris is there. same with mick garcia. in the intern areas around full

court. mike lollar, anthony esposito. host: what is it about control of the house? guest: it will be difficult but having harris himself more than having biden drag down democratic enthusiasm. the senate is different. host: let's talk to callers. tom is a republican in birmingham, michigan. caller: good morning. i'm a registered republican. i first voted for george h.w. bush. i probably will not vote for ms. harris. what is your perspective of how in might shift the michigan agreement shall vote who might give kamala a second look. guest: michigan will be the battleground. it be incredibly competitive at the presidential level, senate and house. i think harris does help by

giving voters a fresh start, a fresh face it look at. if you look at the latest abc polling from this weekend, her first week trump campaign, it is

whit e supremacy. no matter what words they use, what they are mustering up is the fear in so-called white people that their illusion of white supremacy is slipping away and trump is the hope to bring it back. in the harris campaign it is a campaign for all americans, all human beings, black, white, red, yellow, all of them. and to make this country live up

to its creed that all men are created equal and not this white supremacist idea of white racist christians that they should dominate the land. when this country is made up of all different people and that we should all be respectful of each other. host: any comment? guest: that is the harris game plan. that is exactly the contrast they want to campaign. seems like he has the talking points. host: al independent line columbus, ohio. caller: i just want to elaborate on what that caller just spoke on before i got on. this whole thing about kamala and with the open borders i

always hear republicans saying that she was -- you know, that the democrats are for open borders but i would like to know we was the border ever closed in the united states? when was it ever shut down from all immigrants? another thing like the caller before me said, i would like to know the definition of the left and the right. when you say liberal, if you take it to the extreme, you are talking about ok, you might say communism, but it is talking about freedom for everybody, everybody having the same amount of everything, of being liberal with all the things that we need to survive. money and everything that goes with it. but when you talk in conservative, the right, what is that? is it just to conserve that for

white people? host: all right. he did mention the border. how big of a deal is that? guest: it will be massive. one of the stronger republican tacking points against harris she was the de facto border czar for president biden. she had responsibilities for it and going back to the down ballots, the republican campaign committee laid out the policy centric attacks against hair respect, the lines they want their candidate to follow. chief among them with immigration is blaming her for border crisis and increase in immigration and crime and that will be a pretty salient line. dave mccormick in pennsylvania had the textbook ad we will see copy and pasted tying bob casey to harris more liberal statements of 2020 and then to her responsibility for the border so if you are vulnerable

democrat in arizona, nevada, michigan, wisconsin, pennsylvania it will be in there swapped in with your fame. why a reminder of the lines, democrats, 202-748-8000, republicans, 202-748-8001, and independents, 202-748-8002. chuck on the republican line in clinton, south carolina. you are next. caller: good morning. can you hear me? host: yes. caller: i have been watching c-span since brian lamb started the thing and i have been a political junky since i was in the seventh grade. what i'm seeing now is sings they started -- sings they started cable news is where it is a team sport. we don't care what happens as long as my team wins and people, you have a kind of people that don't understand the way the accountant runs at all.

mostly guys in d.c. are liberal and don't have a clue of what i think like and what they don't understand is the election is going to be won by the way the middle cast votes. that is people like me. the last i think i want, you sit there and it doesn't effect you, but i watch illegal immigration come in and when i go on the job site i see them joaquining and they are working under the tkaebl and a legitimate contractor can't compete with that because they have to pay insurance, unemployment and all of this stuff on my guys so i get underbid all the time. another thing is when i go to the grocery i'm paying twice what i used to pay. and that do not mean anything to a guy in d.c. leak you. but people like --

host: all right, chuck, we got that. immigration and inflation. guest: the names of the ticket might change we might have a viable candidate for the rug side but the concern about immigration and price of goods will be paramount and the biggest challenges for both. host: what are you looking for as we await the announcement of a running mate for harris? guest: i'm interested to see the strategy. all the final us offer potential political advantage. it is interesting it contrast her considerations right now with former president trump's where he took j.d. vance who was not looking to expands the map. it was not nikki haley who could have have added a modicum of moderation to the taggart. j.d. vance, 39 years, not in his second year of being in office,

is maga through and through with the conservative wing. it is more doubling done on the base. if trump will to make that decision after harris came on board i don't know if he would have made the same decision. what harris is considering it seems like between the governor of pennsylvania joshua shapiro. indiana pa sheer, minnesota is somebody to balance the ticket with more moderation and might expand the map a little better or help her in her places she might be the weekest. host: do you have a prediction? guest: i don't have a prediction. i do as an alumni of u.n.c. have to support fellow alumni roy cooperment but that is just the alumni network. host: although i heard he pronounces it different. guest: more like cupper. i think it is north carolina. host: karen democrat in texas.

caller: you had a caller asking the difference between liberal -- excuse me -- liberal and conservative or democrats and republicans. the most liberal statement that ever started a country is the idea that all men are created equal, we will have no kings in this country. that is where you see the liberal side believes government can influence people's lives in a positive way and can help people get out of, say, poverty, go forward with jobs and try to help the little man. i come from the state of texas, near the state capitol and we had governor george w. bush g. he was the governor before he became president and one of the most famous things he said wail governor is corporations will regulate themselves so that is where you see all kinds of

things happen where the airline industry and boeing has crashes, east palestine has rail crashes this is where the government let business do what they want instead of regular late so i'm just answering that question. but people need to look at what happened in texas. the republicans in texas do not even campaign here. i have michael mccall. he doesn't even show up. he doesn't have to. hot to be tom delay gerrymandered this whole state and ever since then the democrats haven't had a chance to elect anybody. so, if you want to see what is going to happen or what they want, all state universities here in the state of texas are forbidden to use d.e.i. in their

enrollment. all the programs that passed the law that republicans control austin and they just passed a law saying no more d.e.i. so we have the large he is enrolled university in the america, texas a&m that has 70,000 students and 2,000 of them are black in a state that is 14% black. so, those things are going to come out of the republicans this year. they are going to try to do with the abortion bans their treatment of women they are going to try to do everything they have done in texas when they steamrolled that they are going to try to do that on a nationwide level. host: all right, carroll. guest: we can that in texas gerrymandering or the republican party but one thing we have not talked about is contrast of democrats and republicans on reproductive health and abortion rights.

that is one of the big drivers behind this enthusiasm for harris right now not just bass she is younger or a woman of color but because she can tack more eloquently and prosecute the case against republicans on abortion abscess rights. we saw that previewed this weekends with the major committee chairs of the democratic party hitting the sunday shows about that and harris and it is their belief she can talk about abortion as a black woman because of how the inequities of reproductive healthcare effect that communities so dose proportionately. she will say the word abortion which president biden was react to do. they see her as being able to prosecute that case in a more efficient way. that is probably the democrats' most effective tool is drawing that contrast on reproductive rights. host: jay in mississippi, end line.

caller: good morning. i would like to make a comment about ms. harrisher pop is real, that is really a shot, because hers was so low, the whales could not even find it. i don't understand how all of a sudden she has gotten so popular. i watched james get up at the republican convention and more or less endorse donald trump president. he did not endorse him, but he

almost did. labor unions and stuff like that, fangs is not going to go well for the democrats. that is all i've got to say. guest: one saying about the labor unions, so, too, go the elections. vance kind of can speak to that working class union member voter here. he's got stronger labor, prounion credentials than a lot of other republicans, and you can see that as a concerted effort from the republican party to bring those type of voters. host: you have an article in the national journal's "hotline", where it will take to campaign, calling it biden's second waterloo. a picture of a very young joe biden. what we are trying to say there? guest: i did that the moment he

did his big announcement dropout speech. and what i did as i looked at biden pose a public life for 50 plus years, and i went back to 1987 and looked at how he dropped out the first time, what his considerations were. for that i used the really seminal book, ben cramer's "what it takes," kind of the best campaign book of all time, i would wager. his considerations then is the same we see now, really digging his heels in, really only concentrating on the select few, and it also features some other parallels. there was biden in a huddle, and his home in delaware. he was resisting calls for a few weeks. there was a self-made controversy. what struck out to me when i was reading about these considerations is the judiciary committee, ironic considering his message today about supporting those two reforms of

the supreme court, but he talked about the plagiarism scandal plaguing his young campaign, the campaign that never really caught fire. he could not quite get there. his consideration was that the campaign is going to overshadow his supreme court confirmation hearing. of robert bork. . bork was the reagan appointee that biden helped settle through, as ben kramer writes, ever about democracy at the time in 1987. if i drive us down, it will overshadow this confirmation, it will get this guy, robert bork, on the supreme court. it is a service to my country now that i need to step away. his consideration of akamai single supreme court justice, his decision to drop out 40 years later, he is considering so much more.

the future of democracy, at least in democrats' minds, is at stake, it is not just one supreme court justice, it could be to, could be three, could be the presidential immunity case. if that is what caused him to tip the scale 40 years ago, imagine the pressure is on him now. the next two months will be about his legacy. host: nick in delray beach, florida, republican. you are next. caller: that is laughable. what a great story, that joe biden dropped out of the 1988 presidential race over judge bork. that takes the case. i'm going to try to get through this without laughing, and i will do it quickly, because c-span does not like the fact that i speak intelligently and truthfully. you guys like to cut me off quickly, so i will speak fast. number one, i cannot believe that c-span is still allowing

people to come on the airwaves and talk about white supremacy and racism and all this, calling republicans and donald trump white supremacists, and everyone who votes for donald trump wants to bring back white supremacy and the nomination. when is c-span going to wake up and grow up? host: is that all you had to say, nick? caller: no, it is not. host: sorry, i hit the button to fast. oscar and ray, wisconsin. caller: yeah. i'm calling in about the continuous misinformation about kamala harris being a dei pick. how is she a dei pick, when she was elected by the people

of the state of california had to be attorney general. she was elected by the people of california to be their senator. she was elected by the people of the united states to be the vice president, so how is that a dei pick? host: any commentary echo guest: that does undercut the republican message that she is not qualified. she was a state attorney general, she was a district attorney, she was a senator from california, a pretty impressive resume, at least enough for biden today she was qualified for the vice presidency. host: have you seen any changes in president trump's approach, former president trump's approach in his campaign? guest: it has been interesting to see them try in real time to fight again. he was shot at, there was a bullet, he survived, and for a

little bit, that first week, especially during the rnc, it was all about a new tone, a new trump and everything. he threw out what was going to be a real humdinger, but he made it a little more unified. that is what his son trump junior sighed at the rnc. what we have seen since biden has stepped aside is a reversion back to the mean for donald trump. by "me and," i don't mean average, but i mean mean. if you look at his rallies, he still going after the democrats in the same language as before, sometimes slipping up and going after biden again instead of harris. he's got to find his footing again. we talk about his rally this weekend in minnesota, people talk about ever since the assassination attempt, he's a changed man, i've changed, but i don't think i've changed them in fact, i'm not ready to be a nice guy. i don't think any of this rumor or this idea of a pivot for

trump israel. he will be the same trump we've known for the past eight years now. host: charles in charleston, south carolina, independent line. caller: yes, good morning. what the guy from texas had to say, a kind of reminded me of south carolina, how, you know, south carolina, you can't even question government. you can have a good argument down here, they bring in more money in south carolina. it is always going to be a republican state and everything. but my question is about trump and everything. it is amazing how trump, he really did not even think that he was going to win the election. i did not think he would have any idea he would. democrats are going to

look back, hilary was the worst thing to happen to them on the run and everything. all the things trump was able to do, he is the same donald trump, he's the guy that's probably going to be one of the most influential people, and he is going to win and everything. host: he mentioned hillary clinton. what do you think vice president harris has taken from that campaign, that she might be imploring to her campaign? guest: you seeing in her

messaging that bill clinton and hillary clinton endorsed her early on. harris is taking the fight right to trump. just calling him we are, going after j.d. vance and trump in very simple to understand terms, these guys are crazy, these guys are weird. i think that is something the clinton campaign struggled with, and i think the biden campaign struggled with a little, too. they are talking a little more highfalutin about what the stakes of the race are, that it is about democracy, it is about, you know, the future of the country and everything, which sounds good on paper but maybe does not resonate as much right now. harris is going to go directly. host:host: at him -- go directly at him. host: sal is calling from new jersey, republican.

caller: h i. i know president trump. he sent me letters when he was president, i wrote him a letter, i cannot believe it, he sent me two beautiful letters back. democracy in my eyes, i can't understand how harris and the biden administration, they want electric cars as one think of all the stuff coming from china, japan come all the minerals, that is ridiculous. the second thing is, i hope president trump on his administration, i know it is not a nice thing to say, but it is true. all the killing come of the kids that died from the fentanyl, all the trafficking with the little children missing and sex, and all the sex crimes, they should promote that and how the biden and harris administration come all these people died, and all these kids missing and rapes. it is awful, what is going on in this country. if harris gets elected, our

country will have no democracy, and democrats had better wake up to that. thank you very much. host: thanks. guest: i think that is the line republicans are going to take, especially about the border, especially about the drugs that are coming in over the border as well. and, again, the trump campaign was singularly designed, at least according to reports, to run against biden, to really contrast strength verse weakness , a verse -- really about age and mental acuity. but harris who is almost 12, 13 years younger than trump, they had to rewrite that label. what they do have is her record in the senate, and the race in 2020. most of the attacks there will be what we will see over the next 90 days. host: good morning. clarence in florida.

caller: good morning. what i cannot understand is how can y'all vote for someone who everybody around them is going to jail, and thinking that he is clean? that's number one. how can you vote for someone that is sitting there telling you straight up that he wants to be a dictator, and y'all want to vote for him? because i tell you what, you all vote him in, and he becomes a dictator, there's nothing y'all can do after that. that's all i want to say. host: the felony convictions, how is that, do you expect vice president harris to discuss that a lot? host: between the convicted felon and the prosecutor here right now in the early stage of the campaign, i think she's really going to highlight that, highlight her record. in a few rallies, she has talked about how, i know his tight,

i've been a prosecutor, and really drawing on his legal issues and his run-ins with the criminal justice system. how much of that will stick, we don't know yet, especially after the supreme court ruling about presidential immunity. trying to his conviction charge dismissed. it does not look like any of the other cases will come before a jury, before a judge, before the election here. so i wonder how much of those will stay in voters' minds. i know harris will try to make them front of mind. but with how fast of an election cycle we have right now, i think it will be difficult for voters to keep that one in mind. host: former president trump set over the weekend, when he was urging christians to vote, he said "you won't have to vote anymore," if he becomes

president. is that getting a lot of traction, or is that being dismissed as he is joking or, you know, he's saying, don't worry about it, i'm going to become president, you will have a great experience. guest: i think that is gaining a lot of traction, but that type of quote is an ad lib, it is tacked on. we, as a media, have been struggling to take him literally or seriously for the last 80 years or so. with remarks like that, earlier this year, when he promised he would only be a dictator for a day, on the first day, instead of a dictator presidency, is hard to parse through what a smoke and what is fire with trump sometimes. i tend to believe when a presidential candidate says something, you believe in, you listen. the problem with trump is he floats his own with things like that, and it is hard to fact check one thing or challenge one thing. when you think about that and what that would be. host: one more call, stephen

clifton, new jersey, independent. good morning, steve. caller: hi. good morning. i think it is amazing that no one seems to be talking about the process there. i know the democrats talk about the threat to democracy, but i cannot see a bigger threat to democracy than what they did in terms of the primary system. there were people who wanted to run against biden, they were pushed out, and the coronation is just, i mean, what could be a bigger threat to democracy? i have no problem with biden stepping down, but there should be an open convention. this is not a way where we don't have candidates chlorinated, -- coronated, and nobody seems to be talking about it. i'm 63 years old, and i can't remember anything like this ever

happening, where someone was literally given the nomination, without doing any of the work. guest: that is a question that democrats are grappling with a little bit right now. but the thing is, about a nomination process like this, the parties can make of the rules as they see fit right now. you saw that kind of the state level on the republican side, where some state parties changed the rules about how their primaries worked, to where it was not a proportional win, if you got a majority of the vote there, all the delegates would go to the winner. that was to benefit trump, where he might be more vulnerable in the primary process. he obviously wasn't, but what helped was changing those state rules. the party can run their own system here. there's no central democracy clearinghouse for how a party will elect their nominee here.

yes, any other democrat could have challenged biden. you saw marion williams trying to do it as well. it is hard to run against an incumbent president. biden can reject a nomination. then the dnc role of new rules about how to get the dnc. host: a>> "washington journal" continues. host: we are joined by christopher devine, political science associate professor at the university of dayton and co-author of the book called "do running mates matter." welcome to the program. guest: thank you for having me. i'm glad to be here. host: do running mates matter? guest: it is a good question. they do matter. they do not matter in the way they usually think about, even the discussions with harris's vp

pick. a lot of people talk about it like you can buy estate on the cheap with one electoral strategy. we do not find evidence of that. we did not find you can pick off a group of voters that way easily either. where running mates matter is in terms of how we think of the presidential candidates. what does this pick tell us about kamala harris. what is j.d. vance tell us about a second donald trump term? it tells us something about the judgment and the priorities and the ideologies of the presidential candidate. especially with someone like kamala harris who is well known as the incumbent vice president, there is lot for people to learn about her as a potential presidential candidate in her own right. i think this pic will help fill in the blanks and influence how voters respond to her. probably at the margins. host: let's talk about the vetting process.

there is not a lot of time. typically there is more time. tell us what goes into that vetting process. what are they looking at. guest: there was a time when the vp was picked up the convention just as the presidential candidate was picked. it was a party choice in the moment. barely any time to consider. since the early 1970's the parties have changed the rules so now we have this process viewers are familiar with where whoever wins the primary any given state gets the delegates. that is why joe biden was entitled to the delegates based on the primary result. he had to release those delegates. for donald trump, if joe biden had stayed in the race, there is time in between the presidential nomination being cited in the convention to that candidate. we are looking into everything.

there political record. what about their public statements and private statements? what about their medical records and financial records. some candidates who have gone through this compared to a colonoscopy. invasive and intensive. it is a grueling process but the idea is to get the skeletons out of the closet before the campaign. if there is something that could be embarrassing or problematic, let's back that into choosing or not choosing this person or if we go with them we can leak that out before hand so it is known before the announcement is made. that is an important part of the process and kamala harris has a challenge because she has to rush that process. there is some time but not as much time as usual. they have to be extra careful about not missing something. host: is the vetting process standard or does each candidate get to decide these are the things i want to know, these are the things not important to me?

guest: it is ultimately up to the candidate. there is a set of procedures that have become familiar over time, and just like the power of the vice president's have grown over time these are informal changes that no one has to follow but it has come to be that way because it works to the advantage of the campaign. people have seen in the past that this process, even just leaking out names to the press, especially some campaigns often at odds with the press, they value that role of putting names out there so reporters can investigate these folks as well so members of the party can react and so on. this process serves the campaign well because they need to know what is wrong with this candidate, there's something wrong with everyone. they need to know before they are stuck with that selection. some of the conversation going on right now, some people say donald trump might be regretting picking j.d. vance. once you make that choice and

there is a nomination you're stuck with them. better get the stuff out of the way now. host: is mr. trump stuck with senator vance? could he switch him out or is it legally too late? guest: everything has pros and cons. i'm not saying trump is stuck with vance but some people are seeing it that way. he has been nominated. if he were to decide to make a change, i don't know how that would work. all of the given states, you have deadlines coming into play with the issue of whether joe biden was going to be on the ballot or some one else was going to be nominated. wave and early virtual rollcall in the democratic party. that could get tricky. i would be shocked if donald trump were to replace j.d. vance. i think they are hoping it is just him getting his feet wet. it goes to illustrate j.d. vance has never been through a national campaign. that was one of the advantages of joe biden picking kamala harris.

even though her primary campaign did not joelle she had been in the national spotlight and screwed night -- did not go well she had been in the national spotlight. by picking someone who had only run for one election in his lifetime, j.d. vance, 39 years old, knew the senate, trump took a risk and he is finding out what happens when you take that risk. some of the stuff you may not have known as well, you have to find out once you've made the pick. host: let's take a look at a portion of senator chuck schumer talking about that pic yesterday. [video clip] >> the addition of j.d. vance to this ticket is incredibly bad choice. i think donald trump, i know him him and he is probably sitting and watching the tv and every day it comes out j.d. vance has done something workstream, more weird, more erratic, he seems to be more extreme than president

trump. i bet president trump is scratching his head and wondering why did i pick this guy. the choice may be one of the best things he ever did for democrats. the president has about 10 days before the ohio ballot is locked in and he has a choice. does he keep vance on the ticket where he is already a lot of baggage, he will probably be more baggage over the weeks because we will hear more things about him, or does he pick someone new? host: what do you think of that? guest: i think the trump campaign could have priced a lot of these things in in advance. they had access to this information. a lot of what we are hearing our comments made months or years in the past. they should've caught these things through the vetting process and i would assume they did know about it and they said his strengths overcome his weaknesses. i think they saw some strengths in j.d. vance about his ability

to reassure the base of the party. he is someone who will be loyal to donald trump, who agrees with him on most policy, sometimes wants to go further. just walk something back like on abortion, for example. j.d. vance has the kind of strength for the campaign they wanted to run when joe biden was the candidate. it does get more complicated now that joe biden is not the candidate. may be running against kamala harris you want to pick someone different. i should mention donald trump, his other finalists were doug burgum of north dakota and marco rubio from florida. going along with my was saying before, i think those were much safer picks and probably better picks for donald trump. this is not to say j.d. vance cannot be a good candidate or a vice president. that is a judgment call. in terms of his readiness to run a national campaign and serve a national office, he has been a senator for only a year and a half.

that is the least amount of experience we have seen in a vice presidential candidate in modern times. that was a risk trump took. it would've been much safer picking someone else, especially marco rubio who as a quarter century of experience and had run a fairly successful national campaign for president in 2016. host: had you seen this pick coming budget mark the senator vance pick? guest: i spent the 2010s getting everything wrong about politics, the 20 20's have been going better. i expected kamala harris and j.d. vance. we will see how this goes. looking back at donald trump's experience with vice president mike pence who he now sees very poorly, to say the least. he does not think well of that pic, he does not think well of mike pence. donald trump, mike pence is kind of a villain. is that because mike pence was disloyal throughout the campaign in 2016 and throughout his vice

presidency? no. he was extremely loyal. he had one point where he was confronted with something donald trump asked him on january 6, trump asked him to do something that vice president pence did not have authority to do. mike pence chose to follow his constitutional authority rather than trump's orders and trump saw that as unforgivable. heading into this choice, i think what donald trump was saying is who is someone who no matter what i asked them to do will say yes, who will say yes to january 6 than area where mike pence said no? if you look at the resumes, that is what stands out about j.d. vance. it is not his experience in office, it is not his accomplishments. what stood out about him is clearly in the way he talks about things in public, the way he was willing to go on any range of talk shows, from the

far-right podcasted steve bannon to the sunday morning talk shows. he would stick up for donald trump in any situation, if not urge him to go further. that is what was appealing about j.d. vance. host: you can join the conversation if you would like to give us a call. our guest is christopher devine, political science associate professor at the university of dayton and co-author of the book "do running mates matter?" our phone lines are by party. democrats (202) 748-8000. republicans (202) 748-8001. (202) 748-8002. what do you think vice president harris needs to be looking at as she makes that decision of a running mate and do you have a prediction? guest: my answer is based on my research. looking at past selections, we can show that this choice first

and foremost has to be of someone who is clearly credible and ready to be president -- vice president or president if necessary. voters expect that above all else, above all types of ticket balancing. number one they want a credible vice president or president. if they doubt the qualifications of that person as people did in 2008 when it came to sarah palin, they will hold that against the presidential candidate who makes that choice. if kamala harris tried to be too clever and go pick off about ground state and pick somebody not up to the job and does not perform well, voters will look at that and say where is your judgment? were you just trying to win election. she needs to show people that she is serious about governing. there are any range of qualified people, many on the short list, some not on the short list. she could pick someone who is ready for that. some are more serious than others. beyond that she might factor in

other things. clearly we see in republican line of attack on kamala harris is that she is too liberal. she is a san francisco liberal. one way she could fight back a bit against that kind of take on her candidacy is to choose someone who is fairly moderate. she has some options. andy beshear in kentucky. josh shapiro in pennsylvania. mark kelly from arizona. these are people perceived as relative moderates. if she were to choose them some people would look at her and say everyone is in is really liberal but she picks this guy, maybe she is not so liberal. host: we have a text from michael in florida who says, "you think president biden will transfer power to vp harris so she can run as an incumbent and vastly improve her odds to win?" guest: that is a great question.

that is something i was wondering about after the june 27 debate when it seemed like president biden would drop out of the race sooner than he ended up doing. maybe give kamala harris the opportunity to run as an incumbent as the question references. traditionally incumbents do better. we see that not just in presidential races budding congressional races which is so at odds with the way we talk about talking about people in power, we want to throw the bums out, drain the swamp. look at reelection rates in congress. 2022 was the first time 100% of senators running for reelection won it. clinical scientists who study this found there is a bump that typically goes with running as an incumbent. there is a question about whether that applies as much today as it did in the past. traditionally an incumbent does better. in this case one thing that is more difficult and i do not know if this is factored into president biden's decision is to

take on the presidency and a campaign on accelerated timeframe all at once, maybe that is too much. to people who might be concerned if joe biden does not think he is up for another term even running as a candidate this time, why still serve as president? maybe he should not be in that role. i think that is a fair question but there may be other factors into why he did not make that choice. host: derek in williamsburg, virginia. republican. are you there? host: christopher in cumberland, virginia. independent line. caller: good morning. which presidential nominee do you think was the most consequential and electoral history and by that i mean do you think it is ever actually had an impact on the outcome of an election? thank you for your time. have a good day. guest: thank you for the

question. i think you meant vice presidential. there are a range of candidates who may have contributed to a campaign. it is hard to tell. lbj in 1960 is the one where people often say in a razor thin election that jfk won. maybe that is what delivered texas and deliver the presidency to john kennedy. this is something i've researched before and the evidence is pretty counterintuitive. we can show he was less popular in texas than the less of the south and less popular in the south and the rest of the united states. we doubt he delivered that, although there were some shenanigans he seemed involved in in perhaps delivering some illegal votes. robert caro describes this in his book. that is one thing we can point to but maybe not for the normal reasons. in 1992, bill clinton chose al khor for vice president.

that is relevant to what we are talking -- bill clinton chose al gore for vice president. it was a weird three-person race with ross perot and there. clinton chose a strategy -- instead of automatically trying to balance who he was, instead he chose someone who was a lot like him. a fellow new democrat. a relatively moderate southern democrat. what that did was double down on his campaign message about who he was, get across how he was distinctive to democrats they rejected in the 1980's. kamala harris could choose to do the same thing. if it is part of who she is. people say you cannot pick gretchen whitmer because you have two women. i don't think that is necessarily true. if they judge gender is a

strength for her in getting across the message about abortion, and i'm not saying this is the right move, but if they believe that, may be doubling down by picking not just gretchen whitmer for the ticket, but also someone who is dealt with abortion issues in michigan, maybe that actually strengthens their messaging and gets voters thinking about abortion that much more in this election. host: marco is next in highland, indiana. democrat. caller: you are really gorgeous. i just want to say that kamala harris should pick the governor from pennsylvania. i think that is very good chemistry with the both of them. that is all i have to say. host: what you think of governor shapiro? guest: a couple points i will pick up on there. he is the governor of

pennsylvania. that is something i think to bring into the conversation. as far as the buzz around various vp candidates, josh shapiro might be on the top of that list. a lot of folks think this is a good way to pick up pennsylvania. at electoral votes that could be crucial for kamala harris. i am skeptical about the home state advantage. there is very little evidence that you actually get this resolved. it requires -- that you actually get this result. it requires something strategic among voters. you can look at the candidate and say i prefer donald trump. imagine having a fellow pennsylvanian as vice president of the united states. i don't think people operate that way. we get caught up in the sweepstakes discussions but i do not think the evidence supports it very well. josh shapiro has a lot of qualifications.

he is a former attorney general. he is someone who has been high-profile in that state and voters think he is doing a good job. the latest polling, his approval rating was 61%. those are good reasons to pick him apart from being from pennsylvania. if the harris campaign is going to pick him they should do it because they would just as soon pick him if he was the governor of new jersey than pennsylvania. if it is based on primarily him being from pennsylvania, i think they're making a strategic mistake and should focus on someone's qualifications or other merits and not just based on the home state. if they hope to get a boost in that state as a bonus, maybe, find. that should not be the basis for picking him or anybody else. host: let's look at what governor wes moore of maryland said yesterday. [video clip] >> you have said you are not interested in being vice president harris's vice presidential pick.

what you think is important when she looks at a candidate? >> i have been very flattered by the level of interest and i absolutely love my job and i want to continue doing my job. the thing she needs to look for is the person that gives her a sense of comfort that this will be my partner in the work. i do not think she needs to go through an exercise of finding what boxes to check or what part of the country. the truth is that if you look at recent history, that has not been the case in recent history. the last time that impacted was maybe 1960. she has to pick someone she knows will be her partner and i think that is the only criteria she should focus on. host: i take it you agree with governor moore. guest: i think that is a great way of looking at it. this personal probably not impact the election that much. running mates matte