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tv   The Day  Deutsche Welle  December 1, 2023 9:30pm-10:00pm CET

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a touring model, last styles, and committed to a name where he left his trees. meeting people viewing the dream mediterranean jeremy. this week on the dw, the henry kissinger died this week at the age of 100, to some, a cantankerous, controversial curmudgeon of yesteryear to others. a german jew who escaped the nazis and became a us diplomat with front row seats to the post war world order that he helped create. tonight we look at his legacy will it age as well as he did in beijing? kissinger is known as a friend of china, but for the rest of us, it's more complicated. after all, we may be inheriting an inflection point in history, made possible by kissinger himself. i bring the gulf in berlin. this is the day
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the there's no question that, that he shape foreign policy decisions for dec. i talked with the soviet union of china to the west. we remember him bombing cambodia, back to the store night in asia and pots of latin america. and he's remembered much list phone with the land, the cornerstone of the vs agreements, which were later signed with a egypt to him in china, i'm the united states, most in harrington, curry, ford with doctor case and just strategic vision, political courage, a diplomatic wisdom. few people were better students of history. even short people did more to shade history. also,
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coming up after a 7 day ceasefire between a boss and israel, hostilities have reserved to the hum us army of tara. and the goal is to strip violated the terms of the agreed framework and launched the rocket fire at his right communities, having chosen to hold on to women. how mos will now take the mother of old. something's for to our viewers watching on tv, as in the united states and to all of you around the world. welcome. we begin today considering the legacy of henry kissinger, the former us secretary of state under us president richard nixon, died on thursday. at the age of 100. a sin terri considered one of the most influential and controversial figures of the cold war of the 20th century, prays for his staunch opposition to communism. derided for tolerating the abuses of military dictatorships, a master practitioner you can say of re i'll pull the take,
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good or bad. it earned him a nobel peace prize for helping in the vietnam war. others accused him of orchestrating war crimes. along the way, kissinger was a leader of the taunt with the soviet union in the 1970s. he struck deals and limiting the nuclear arms race. and he helped open the door to china, politically and economically, america's one showing the policy of strategic ambiguity, globalization, and just in time supply chains, they all carry the signature in some form of henry kissinger, shevan mo, on the chinese side. and bridget, nick, that the americans that said, let's go to the site. the quarter of a picnic concept. let's concentrate on talking to each other about maybe want to go. so that way we could understand. but we tried to cheat
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and renew the food conversations between the to the, to they talk almost like say less of it. we had to overcome a number of deputies printed the say on the tablet. but it happened. and it happened in the rendalie had much fear and it late the pages for 40 years of on the improving the days of my 1st guess tonight served as a us diplomat in beijing. and as an interpreter for henry kissinger and for former us president jimmy carter, robert dailey is now the director of the wilson centers kissinger institute on china in the united states. and he joins me tonight from washington, dc. mr. bailey is good to have you with this on this friday, when henry kissinger,
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when he helped open china in the early 19 seventy's. was there ever any speculation that the fundamentals of global economics and also doing a politics were about to be for ever altered? you know, they knew that they were doing something historic and that it was likely to unfold in ways that they couldn't anticipate so that they knew the scale of what these meetings uh you know, with the scale of change that they imply. but they didn't know the specifics about what they imply they were trying to solve nixon and kissinger. a far more specific problem, which is the problem of balancing against the soviet union. that was what this move was primarily about. they knew that it was going to have larger impacts and that, but their goals didn't involve all of the subsequent changes that you just described. yeah, yeah. the, the, these other impacts that you mentioned, one of course would be what we now refer to as globalization. 50 years ago,
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we saw a paradigm being established in the united states do business with communist, trying to give them coca cola, rock and roll, and they will become eventually, our allies become more like us. i did, henry kissinger, did she think in these terms at the time there is nothing in the record. what was said that suggests that making china an ally in the technical sense for making it more like us was what they were thinking about. they want the, the mix and insight. so if you have a triangle or hostile relationship, as we did with the soviets and china, that the position you want to be in is you want to have better relations with each of them. then they had with each other so that each of you arrivals would look to you in a sense, to help solve its problems with the 3rd. so that was the very ambitious, but again,
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limited goal. yes, after the 1972 meetings, history continued to on the school as it always does in ways good. that in different for seen and unforeseen, and many of the things that happens and you said you're leading more traceable at least in part, to rep rosemont, between china and united states. but intentionality, for all of those subsequent changes shouldn't be attributed to the actors at the time any more than it can be today. this is when you say that henry kissinger helped create an inflection point in history of some 50 years ago. and he was he and architect of that inflection. yes. definitely. and numerous inflection points in many parts of the world that a bit played out very differently. in the case of china. absolutely. milestone and nixon, the 2 national leaders, primarily, but joe online and henry kissinger,
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who are very consequential number twos who helped shape strategic thinking were all part of these discussions, which unquestionably open the doors to 40 years of engagement between united states and china. which was in many ways of very positive story for both countries. but they also opened up a path for china to increase its power. and there are many in the united states and around the world now who are asking quite correctly what that impacts what that power implies for them. so mixing himself late in his career, said that he thought maybe we hadn't raised a tiger. maybe maybe what was done in 1972 over the very long term wasn't going to work out for the united states. but again, if we look at the world today and things are going on in the middle east in ukraine, with technology, we can be certain that the decisions we vacant our are going to have impacts 102050
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years. hence, i don't think we can be blamed for not for seeing all of us president bite. and today, when he talks about the, our current era having an inflection point, he's describing what we now we refer to as the process of the risking in our relationship with trying to some critics and henry kissinger would say that now we're trying to reverse what kissinger helped to put in motion or we're trying to put no penned or back in the box. i mean, i know you can say that's not fair, but i mean, it does feel like we're trying to undo part of the past 5 decades. aspects of it, although it's not so much trying to undo the taking united states and china out of cold war isolation from each other that during which we actually fought until each
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other and tried to harm each other. you know, the, the mile jo, online nixon kissinger reintroduce these nations to each other and open them to each other. what china subsequently became trans, had a number of ups and downs. and i've had a number of reversals, most notably under siege and ping who took a country that had gradually been opening up. you took a country that had been practicing soft or a terry newsome. and she brought it down into techno totalitarianism. to say that nixon or kissinger or anyone else was responsible for that is actually to deny agency to the chinese themselves over the past 50 years. yes, the opening enables much of what comes later. but most of which, what comes later can not be reduced to the opening. mr. daily. we appreciate your time. we appreciate you taking the time to talk with us on this friday. thank you.
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thank you. transatlantic diplomacy was another key plank of henry kissinger. his policies and i wonder what he would think of the state of relations today. the us in europe are growing cold on each other and towards the end data military alliance. so that's according to the findings of independent poll conducted by the morning consult business intelligence . the survey found that favorable views of nato have declined in many european countries since russia invaded ukraine. u. s. views of the european union and nato are just above pre war levels. and regarding china, germans are now more likely to swipe beijing, them the european union. as berlin's most important training part, but i'm joined now by selling it for as be she is with morning consult, a business intelligence company that provides research from opinion polling and she's in washington dc tonight. it's good to have you with this, you know,
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one of the take away from your findings is that people in the us in europe are not as supportive of nato as they were a few months ago. why use this? so that's exactly right, brent. so what we've seen in our polling is that compared to a year ago, for example, almost all of the countries where we survey, i've seen a decline in favorability towards nato, and indeed towards their trans atlantic partner. what i want to emphasize here though is that we're looking at one year ago. we're not looking to right after the invasion or write this for the invasion of ukraine. and what we saw right after that invasion was a huge rally round the flag effect and increasing really solidarity between the trans atlantic allies. we saw that in our data. and so to some extent, what we think is happening is a reversion to the mean. so essentially, a return to potentially where we were before, i will point out the use of nato on both sides of the atlantic as well as views of the opposite partner are still net positive. so we're not seeing
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a fracturing of the alliance or, or a real salary on the relationship itself. but i think what we are seeing is people really returning a little bit to business as usual, and their perceptions of the trans atlantic relationships. because, you know, the russian president vladimir putin, he has a predicted circular lever off has as well that, you know, given time the solidarity in unity will the road. and then what you're saying is we, we haven't seen that yet. i know we haven't seen that and i think uh those putting in lab roads had made some pretty bad predictions about the trans atlantic alliance in recent history and what their response would be to ukraine. for example, we do see um, pretty continued support for maintaining sanctions on russia, even if it causes prices to rise in western in western economies. um, what i think is, is uh interesting of course, as the debate about ukraine funding. obviously in the united states, we're seeing an ongoing debate where we're seeing ukraine funding tied to both
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israel funding and also to support for increasing funding to the southern border. and so i think the state are really um, highlights that, you know, as time goes on, politicians really are going to have to justify uh to their voters, why we're spending this money. why it's important to continue to support ukraine, the more time passes. and what about the countries here in europe that it provided most of the military aid to keep? i'm thinking of germany, the u. k. and france is the mood and turning against the war here. and i'm also thinking in germany is predicting that for the 1st time ever, it will be spending 2 percent of a gdp on defense. that's a great question. first of all, i'd like to say there's an interesting divergence and some of european data. so use of the united states tend to be sort of in the, the teams if we're looking at that views just to give you an example. german views
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of the united states are currently around positive 12 percent. so again, positive use. well, the use of nato are around positive $25.00. so there's a really significant difference there. i think when you hear european's thinking about nato versus the us, you know, there's sentimental relationship with the us is really complicated and it includes more things and rushes and vision of ukraine and that effort. so for example, we saw big drops in western favorability towards the u. s. after the of all the shooting and texas uh, and even after the re weighed decisions. now some of that rebounded afterwards, but i think it shows that this is a deep and broad relationship and more goes into it than just uh, than just funding for ukraine. whereas we see nato, it's a military alliance. and so i think it's very reflective of how people are feeling about our military cooperation in general. and let's talk about the, the elephant in the room that has nothing to do with the atlantic. i'm talking about on the other side of the planet. on the side of the pacific,
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talking about trying to and now everyone talking about the risking with the relationship from china. talk to me about how germans see their role in this and how the germans perceive shiny compared to the you. i have to be honest, friends, this was a real surprise for me in the data. so we asked europeans and some of the largest economies, including germany, france, italy, spain, and the u. k. how they would feel about the risk in from china, particularly if it imposed economic costs. in germany was a one of the, the less willing, let's say, to take on economic costs of the risk from china. and when we also asked in the same countries who is your most important trading partner, germany was the only country that had china as number one, even ahead of the european union, and that's a recent development. so i think what might be happening here is number, why do we don't want to be here? and so we knew why, i mean, is, is that because the, the numbers bear that out,
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or are we talking about perception here that is changed here in germany. that's right, this is, this is perception, but perception is important when you're trying to justify policy. so we know that european union is far and away germany's most important economic relationship. but we see a b, average germans having this perception that china is more important than it is. and when we ask them why they say the size of the market. so i think there's perhaps this perception that, you know, german industry has taken a pretty big hit with the decoupling that has happened from russia. so maybe a slightly lower willing us to take a similar hit with china. yeah. and is the timing of, of this study um you have spot on, especially as we're talking about the death of henry kissinger a trans atlantic is who um, obviously is connected with the opening of china. sorry for his being with morning . consult. thanks for taking the time to talk with us the
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fighting between israel and tomas in guns that has resumed and with the answer to has the pressure on israel to keep civilian casualties to a minimum at the same time, trying to destroy a mouse, an air strike on rough and southern gaza, with much of northern gauze under is rarely control. israel's focus is now turning to the south. this means fighting in an even more densely populated area than before. hundreds of thousands of palestinians who fled the north are now here. the israel defense forces released a map showing garza divided into numbered sections. this means that people will receive evacuation notices based on the number of the section they live in. it should make it easier to evacuate civilians before an area comes under attack. however, in sling they may expose themselves to attack as well, which happens when palestinians fled the north. another challenge,
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there are many and is rarely hostages, still in gaza. many of them soldiers that how most wants to trade for its own high value prisoners in israel. many are thought to be held in the south. their fears that indiscriminate bombing from the air code to kill hostages, as well as their captors and civilians. israel also faces international pressure, especially from the u. s. which is israel's main ally and backer. there's political turmoil in the us over civilian casualties and gaza. and the government worries that israel has no exit plan from the war or or more. i am now joined by hans johnson schindler. he's a former german diplomat and a middle east experts is currently a senior director at the counter. extreme is projects which is good to have you here in the studio with this. tell us more about the communication channels between
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israel and how much and these negotiations. nothing is official here, right? good evening. thanks for having me. no, no, there is no direct contact. so this goes why i got to all of course the scene is radio officials including high ranking intelligence officials traveling from and to door ha, but really got tie see of the core in between between israel and thomas. and it's so who's talking to whom that got top talks to how much the egypt power allow and nothing to will have also talks to how much to how difficult is communication between israel and who was with, with all of these the goose majors involved. i mean, do you have almost too many people with bringing in the background? well, this is the same channels you have or waste and you have in direct negotiations, right? you need to be sure that your intermediate or is a absolutely trustworthy. and on the got our side, i would say that is a lack of that one of whether you actually get told the truth of what the other side ones. and also you need to me to understand you make to make sure that the how
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that your intermediate understands what you want. the other site doesn't start and vice versa. so it's, it's more complex. but as, as israel, how could they talk directly to home us? unless it's on a very operational, very direct intelligence like when it very important middle east play with a lot of influence on a moss is missing. it seems. and i'm talking about iran. why is that? are you ronald really is taking, trying to take advantage of this situation, right. you're seeing both his bypassing the knolls, but it just tough enough to keep as real busy. but it's a ron who could with one would set to spell. i lose all of his route because is black is beholden to. iran is essentially preserving. that's it. on the other hand, the who sees in yemen also a proxy offer. uh iran is also doing right, but the letter that is possible to keep everyone busy. so yvonne is trying to position itself to get maximum benefit out of this particular situation. when we
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were talking about proxies we have actually, we understand that it does have mosse. do they look too too wrong for that? maybe defect to permission to do things. for example, or, or is the connection not quite that strange. i mean, if you look at what happens on the 7th of october, it really has the handwriting off here. all right. what, how must it until this for chrome like attack was very different, methodologically. as far as the tires backpack is concerned, it was smaller scale terror attacks suicide bombings, but not a consent, multi, our multi day military style terror attack that kills everyone that was inside. so that is really the classic tactics that iran has taught the militias in iraq that has taught the is belie, always operating in syria. so absolutely, i, yeah. how much is beholden to here on not only for the supply weapons and ammunition, but also formally and what is going on inside. gosh, i mean,
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how much is not the only player i'm thinking of islamic jihad, for example? um is how much does it have to make sure that all of these players are on the same page? i think there's 2 levels here, right? so if you're talking about who holds my hostages, and how can you know the next level of the negotiations, the chief can help with that? go, yes. then how must has competitors and getting ready to come up. chiefly, the policy needs. let me get you out to is a much smaller sales structure of the terrace organization, but who has no political sway in gaza? apples any significant size. and then there are some of these quad by criminal groups that goes to whole posters. but when it comes to military decision making in guys, there really is only homeless the. the 1st deal between israel and him, us is now the history of funding is resumed. the us, they made it very clear that they expect israel to protect ordinary people in gaza . more than, than we've seen in the past, i mean that pressure is definitely stronger than before. how much leverage does
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washington have right now? we're in washington, i pretty sure is the only one who was actually really rich over a swell. and you've seen a few more additional attempts by israel to demonstrate that he is trying to protect civilians. the idea of the israeli military released them up in which the entire gaza strip is divided into zones. and they will announce the number of this own, where the attack happens on usual for military to tell is addressed rece publicly. where are they going to attack next? the price that they're willing to pay in order to make sure that the liquor as little as possible savings going to be affected by these effects. so of course that goal is that means how my site is not going to be necessarily in these areas. let me ask you to look at enter your crystal ball. how long do you think that the fighting will continue until we have another ceasefire? another agreement in place that is really hot that that it was very clear that this
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was just phase one. i always said this is the confidence building phase. can you actually do a deal and operationalize a deal, our both sides have kept their word until the very end. then how most played around with a number of hostages went down to terra, talked to jerusalem. now unfortunately, how much has to end this because time us once more for me as well, then just the palestinians, but business. so i don't question for you who is in a stronger position. now compared to when the ceasefire started is really from us. it's really hard to tell that i don't think the relative differences have really military shifted to a great deal is really in a very good position to fully control the north of cause. as soon bye time us as we have seen the last couple of hours is still able to his back mr. center as as always, good to have you here in the studio. we appreciate your analysis. thank you. thank you so much. i. so the day continues online, you'll find this on x, also known as twitter, youtube, the w news. you can probably be
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a print dot tv and remember, whatever happens between now and then tomorrow is another day, have a good weekend. everyone. see you again right here on monday, the
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let's view, we'll tell you the story. we have a getting a visa is more difficult than finding gold hosted to use the dream force and for the future in the stories and issues that are being discussed across the country. news. because in such a minute, on d, w and pollution is
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a 10 especially and mega cities can be contamination at the end. so it's up to us to clean this. let's take a deep breath and find out how eco india in 90 minutes on dw, imagine how many portions of lots of turn out in the world, climate change. the storage space is much less the way from just one week. how much was going to really get we still have time to work on doing this fast fashion as an environmental 9
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this is dw news live in from berlin tonight, international dismay, as israel and her boss resume finding in going to you in describing the renewed hostilities as a return to hell on earth for garza both im austin, israel. i believe each other for the collapse of the ceasefire also coming up in germany's transfer lock show launch is an international club to help in the fight against climate change. it both focus on how industries can cut greenhouse gas emissions.

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