a multi tasking season. modern mess because if we do too much, we had it all wrong. we messed things up, risking brain damage. so let's stop this self sabotage, humans and multitasking watch. now on youtube, v. w documentary, the slow crew come fixing ukraine will soon head into its 3rd year with the pressure on care to advance on the battlefield and re energize support in the west . my guess from belin is alexander w. director of the con, the russia you raises center. the bad news is that, unfortunately, the support for your trade in the west or public is going down for now. russians. economy has stabilized and mr. pretend incisive on war crimes charges is none. the less finding plenty of friends to talk to and visit so well is new found confidence

tim, tim, into a big a will with ukraine, and even a fights with nato. very if welcome to come fig zone. thank you so much for having me. a week ago, nato secretary general young stalking by one of your lives to expect bad news from the war and ukraine. he didn't say what you bring, take you a long hard look at this war is you credit on the way to losing? i don't think that you create is all on the way to losing now, but next year will definitely be crucial. and if you pray is not of the book position next year that, that buy shape the trajectory up the call like towards loss of war by i agree. so what we're seeing at the moment, this is the ad and slow the do you often see with major conflict? that's true. and i think that the comparison bases for this coffee could be blown. one work, the lens, the rock iran war. we're now seeing that green has lost the initiative. it's

pushing on some direction without major gains. it's summer counter offensive has not yielded in nature, call but victories. and then the russians are now on advance with terrible losses on their side of both material equipment. but the russians are advancing and what's more russians have a lot of money pumped into their military industrial complex and into recruiting use soldiers. so now the material advantage is gradually on the russian side, and without massive support for ukraine. we might be seen this accomplish on a trajectory for russia's victory e by the food and doesn't that she piece maxim, elliptic objected. so let's talk about the chances of uh, massive support for your crime. because last month, nato foreign ministers tried to put the best face on the situation. they promised unwavering support as they portraits as the ukrainians bravely defend the country.

um, the figures tell a different story about that. not quite adding up to unwavering support. i mean, you brand to provide us with 50000000000 euros and budget support. that's stuck in committee. a $60000000000.00 fund promised by the white house is stuck in congress . this is bad news, isn't that the bad news is bad. unfortunately, there's support for your trade in the west or how public is going down. and then it also became a stores for olympics making for domestic purposes in the us. and also for intra european union and conflict between some get rid of leadership and the rest of the union inside the you. we're talking at the moment when president zelinski is scheduled to arrive in washington,

d. c. he's most likely to speak to the leather ship, all the senate and the congress. he is about to see prison bite. and so i think that the, the amount of support over the us and the timing, whether the, the, the radians get the money they need to defend themselves for next year is up in the, or the fact that it's not kind of a guaranteed a very well scheduled train of support is a bad news, but i think that it's too early to be desperate. but i think that the very warning side is that it's most likely will be the last massive package for the next year. and the question is how wisely the ukrainians are to spend it. later this week usually does meet in brussels with the possibility of making a historic decision to open. accession talks with ukraine hungry has threatened to block the move you mentioned hungry a moment ago. either way, decisions that at this meeting, put aside the outcome of this war, couldn't buy,

i'm supplies to you kind of already being drastically affected. but i think that it's not deciding the outcomes of this more. but i think that if we don't have a positive decision mask, that 8 or uh, what support for you free then the trajectory also called so you can go into a negative direction for to you. and despite the bravery of ukrainian defendants and the resilience all the ukraine, as a society without massive influx, so western material support the situation, the pretty dar, the kia institute for the world economy set down in december. the 7th, newly commit today to ukraine, reached a new low between august and october this year, but almost 90 percent dropped compared to the same period last year. the crumbling must be jumping for joy, trouble, it is, and we've seen president put in gloating around out. i think he's meeting with

russian with senior military staff. she was awarding keywords of russia awards a couple of days ago. and he said that raid doesn't act on and he doesn't have his own defense base. and this is why the trajectory all the combs the for is in rushes . fever i see might be wrong, long term, but these unfortunately are right, right now. and it's everything in the hands of western. oh, is it a leadership to problem is separate and brought the white house national security advisor jake sullivan said last week that any shortfall and funding would quickly compromise ukraine's defense capabilities in your view? how long does you credit and have to get the weapons? it's cooling for bits for its troops, not only failed to advance, but actually begin to retreat. oh, there is a discussion inside the trade in senior military leadership and the political

leadership as well as among friends off you prayed in the west. what's the best strategy? the ukraine should follow right now, because russia is probably dog in, but you, real advantage is on the russian side, whether it makes sense for the crate to try to break through the russian lines given how it was off to the troops off for the better approach. for now, is not the chase counter offense slips next year, but dig it in $45.00 defenses. be able to retrieve the troops, do another round up invalidation train war troops and then come war prepared. probably in 2025. i think that's a probably do be the issue right now, and depending on the decisions that the visitor, our leadership and political leadership will date, we'll see how the will go about whatever happened to all those extravagant promises

. but the ukraine received over the last 20 months, which with folsom and in many ways unique look at the way the you lost almost overnight into an organization that supplies military hardware. look at the change of heart in germany, the much publicized site. and then the timing boynton history, the jobs to show, spoke up, was that in your view or was a time line attached to the west largest. moscow was believed, always believed that hasn't it? i must go, you deeds ben's on the fact that wisdom support or ukraine will evaporate at some point that moscow has much more at stay given disappointment is up session over this war and given how seemingly united the society is behind this war, i think that based on the work done by my colleagues aren't get dolman henrique, the less me. now. partners sociologist, dennis ball comp,

we see down around 20 percent, a die hard supporters for these, for the russian side and about 50 percent are very ass up. and we'll go into whatever direction the risk. so on the russian side you have, it cannot be growth. you have concrete military production. and you have talk is because this more is the organizing, 1st of all of the process for all of us in domestic bowls. you threaten the russian who is that the west at some point bill pack and lead. and again, it's all totally up to the western leadership. had 2 societies to and how you train to stand in this battle because i think that we have some communication gaps because the west the meters help explain to that society is white. so crucial to you a support you. great. and i think that's more questions. iraq, so, so there is a need, there was a need for a new round of explanation why this conflict is so ex, essential to westside in the crown. so president job michelle was asked on this program about europe's commitment to ukraine. you said the you would stand by

ukraine for as long as it takes to secure victory. do you think such promises were made in good faith? they are, but at the same time we don't have a very clear definition. what victory is. that's also ease achieve. oh, we know what the last thing is, don't we? we've gotten to know what a loss is. when dealt with the know what the last was and the last is when you crean doesn't to cheat annual fits objectives. and the cost of this war is borne by both russia and you create, but costs on the previous slide will be much bigger. i think that right now are the discussions that you're having is that how realistic are the definitions for victory? put out by presidents, the lensky, which is 1991 of borders including crime, the reparations. so russia should pay for the damage and accountability for the work driven mills, including both senior russian leadership and president,

letting your how cheap level is that if we are dealing with the nuclear power is questionable. and i think that's year uh, the western leadership has in a smart way because there is no other way to tell you pregnant what the definition of victory should be. have pushed this to g of leadership itself to say that, oh, you create new leadership should define what the beach recall seduce and we'll be there with them till till they at. now i think it's the recording time for ukrainian leadership itself to define how realistic those goals are and what is the strategy to achieve something which will be the ukrainian leadership sticks to the position that it's not going to give up any land on the country. once the land back um, i thought that looks increasing the achievable doesn't that i don't think that it's feasible to imagine that any you create new leadership will legally abandon any

charge or occupied rush. be to grade work. the other 4 regions that happen are actually occupied the next by russia late next year. but they could be all the ways to brayden this issue and to say that's the orbital numbers are certainly be or unfortunately em. and if you grade achieves it's $5.00 to $9.00 to $1.00 bores. what prevents russia from shooting over the 1991 borders? it's not that ukrainians. well, would we gain territorial integrity of their countries as a really nice by the international community? and then vladimir button, they'll say both, sorry, i lost you was unpacking, then go to or bind myself with waiting to get through the hate. so why don't the weight each, i'm sorry to address you called go home. uh, add to add the county boots, you know he can, he can not. uh, and we can imagine a scenario where she, who is this the ward and stays in power of likes,

likes uncle said after seas tobacco. think wait, but it's unlikely. no. and how much, what do you put in bands on he's legacy over annexation of premier and other parts of the great, mister god, boy, if the crumbling appears to have stabilized after you have gained the precautions in this new today, the rather predictable plane crash that he suffered but will have been bothering the boot and showed unexpected weakness the pressure might someone i've already decided that, well they need to do is give them another push and maybe they could clear the box to someone else taking over in the crime to do think so. it's like that crystallizing at the moment. i'm rushing leaders. no, i think that these hopes are true to you. i understand why people want to see somebody taking care of the world's flooding. they're putting problem, but that are unfortunately not happening to the country. pre gardens,

virginia has only 45 minutes to put in strip and see how they would meet at the most dangerous rival. that's the also south breed and procrastinator for the problem to get bigger and bigger. but now this problem is fixed. everybody in the elite got the message and everybody's not rounded round was by miss. look around this button, billingsley, but they understand what price they will pay if they ultimately step off against this. you yourself wrote in july how the mute to the head exposed what you quote, the fragility of pollutants power system. people won't have forgotten that fragility will that what amounts to a deluge of for the lead and put it was by all accounts and some danger is always an opportunity for opponents, isn't it? that's just politics as it's for you. but the off the resume for sure. but time and again, we see that the midst of putting is learning some lessons and that the system is adopted. remember, a how miserable russia look back and feel at the very beginning. it's called to

where he gradient really being in far less up and teaches position just pushed back and smash a lot of russians, who at which a real security already. and yet, right now, we see that russians are learning the lessons and able to charge the tie. something similar just happened to the political system. yes. then you didn't, you have showed how fragile this, the step is. but this supporting can fix some of the speech. you born last some of the fall from seeking a so gold off from, from his war. and you, great. bruton is preparing for an even bigger war. do you still feel that way? and if so, how big might this will be good. that's exactly what we're seeing. now mr. put in will invest 6 percent of gdp. do defense and to where needs the frame, 40 percent refresh and budget next year we'll go to defense and security. that's

more worth that at any given moment since collapse solve the solve it you did. he is increasing the troops numbers and he's military industries working in 3 ships using materials to defeat your crate. so i think that for now, the war is contained in ukraine in t is the story is, i don't believe that he will be able to achieve his maximum list of goal to put the front the government into to help. but if he's not the chart, i would say that the risk for further and it challenges, i've re challenges the baltic states or to some of what the supply countries is, unfortunately not entirely suit. so when joe biden says, if put in, takes you credit and he won't stop there. and then we'll have something that we don't seek on not we don't have today. american troops fighting russian troops do you believe, but that is a possibility. even a distant one is anybody would say to me 2 years ago, i would say, oh yes,

your habits like russia is very serious about natal article 5 commitment. it's definitely understanding that our symmetry between itself and nato. no nato is not at risk at all. right. now, i'm not so sure if he is victorious in ukraine. if he sees that ukraine is a broken country as he can occupied the land with impunity, and there is a leader elect. donald trump will challenges the utility of nature to american interest that the pension to kind of challenge article 5 will be there. i still think that the risk is low or direct competition between russian the us. but the risk is unfortunately going up, right. but if we were to discover the optical 5 isn't worth the paper, it's written on nato's finish, doesn't it? that's absolutely true. and that might be the data of the russian side. so many people who are wrong about putting supply this to invade you crazy because

objectively speaking, if you are a rational product, which is the list of downsides for rusher is just so long. it is killed, thousands office, be bolting, but it gets both professional military. it's sanctioned. it's isolating from the world is becoming junior partner of china. but we support and it's not the church and she's great on the 14. russia is frank's it. so what it is course is proven to be a winning course, at least for himself, and you get, impose this visit on the russian leads that the patient shall edge. article 5 in nato and chase the americans out of europe will be growing. the support is not getting younger, he's not getting any rational. so the risks are not 0. unfortunately, this might be the issue that he can stop scratching. you mean in other words? yeah, and this is exactly why getting serious about defense and getting as serious about

side with when the and all the promises that were made 2 years ago when rushing made it ukraine, i think, are really very necessary to fulfill not only to support ukraine, but for your own security and payment. is there a way to go for it? unfortunately, let's look if we may add, pretends friendship with china. so you wrote last spring, but thanks to the war and you create russia and china are now closer allies. but at any time and the 2 countries more than the history, do you believe that's put in the new best friend? she jim thing would go along with the idea of a big a wall. i think that mr. a season in a cool new care, less where the conflict between where the border worth the contact line between russia and ukraine is, as long as this war doesn't go nuclear and she is not blame to support that. she will respect american red lines which have been communicated to, you know, genetic,

military direct support, no military. what you, real and buying walrus. she follows that. why, if russia is weakened, isolated, and more aligned and supported to try not, what's the bad news for you? he only likes this situation. what about voters of a foreign friends suddenly he's popping up in the u. a and saudi arabia where he was greeted as a very dear guest of the kingdom in moscow. he's been putting out the red carpet for far need is like the president of it wrong so much for the international i selection that was expected to follow is indictment tool war and war crimes charges . is he just flaunting his impunity, or is he busy putting together a new id west of access? 3 quick points. i think that's the illusion about the, the global unity in isolating russia. it's just the illusion and it's a fantasy. it's very easy to pass up to see me or below it, or

a boat criticizing russia in the un general assembly. but so many countries in the global south, not only china, but also the largest democracy in the world. india are having a beneficial commercial relationship. and they're not abandoning vladimir putting same goes for countries in the gulf, including u, a in saudi arabia, to receiving, quote. and with this, the symbols of prestige and welcome is also a way to show to the west uh that, uh, this region as friends. and this is tied to the west and how do they offer gossett christ and war between israel and a moss? and the finally, yes, mr. poodle is trying to book this call, listen to the other. what's the is called the global majority. i don't think that anybody in the global south is really be leading to support and bunch of stuff that's used. brookfield where it gets to grade is the rebellion against us had

gemini, but so many countries are following the narrow, pragmatic interest and blaming device on double standard. the say, what about iraq? what about of gone to stop? and frankly, there is not that much introspection that we convinced this countries that russians were a gastric freight is entirely different level of violation of a national boards to what expense. i mean, you talked a bit about the, the rushing economy to what extent have improvements in that economy helped to keep the russian people, if not on site, then at least not protesting to the people protested, i'm just the thousands of them. i've gone, haven't they? they've left the country, but somehow they seem to have re aligned or color less the round the kremlin haven't pay. is that the economy we have we enough the estimate upfront, leased out for 1000000 people leaving the russia for good me included for

a country or more than 100. 14000000. that's not too much. and these are people who are employable in global markets. there are so many people who want to leave russia but couldn't because of these of restrictions and many other policies for the remaining people. it's a mix all violence because protesting has a very top price. you see alex in nevada and they, you see so many thousands of brave russians who have dear to protest this war and have been beaten and it proves on that. so what the russian society is optimized in mr. putting these building. he is regime on this level of authorization, f lack of unity. but then another element to this is really the economic prosperity, because uh, the war has made a lot of low middle income families really receiving a lot of money because the government is paying people to go into the front lines.

it's the gave them to have to cash routes for tablets, but when did a deal? so it is a rational strategy for somebody to go to fight in ukraine because he established will be provided. do you measure briefly? the garza wall is obviously diverse. us weapons and ammunition from ukraine to israel. and it also leaves america increasingly isolated diplomatically . so it's a pay a benefit to put through this and that there's no downside for him in this war. it's a clear benefit to me. supposing that he has and create that there is no credible evidence that he was in any way involved in hamas attack. but she's definitely taking a one side and reset the one sided for all from us. stands. he's not the exit que. take the even balance russian for obviously not that much sleep but the for the weeks it's a horrible job or sound tax. and yes,

the us forces are diverted to israel, attention of us senior policy makers, including president biden himself. and he's national security team is dedicated to the middle east, and then the double standards of the vast are something that needs to put and has preach to that level south. and he has a child around there. so very briefly, december, you must go, is ending the year on something of a high looking better than it did a year ago. but if you look back what 223 has been a really surprisingly good year for me start putting. and it's really in the hands of the western policy maker to make sure the 2024 is not as good for alexander gabriella. it's been good to have your own complex. i'm thank you very much for your time. thank you so much for having me. the, the

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