or, and the thing about ice is you have to listen . and in google review, it's secrets. thoughts, january 12 on dw, the in 2023. the world's attention was split between 2 wards, russia's invasion of ukraine and israel's war against tomas and gossip to conflicts to risk to the global order as we know it. unfortunately, they were carried over into the new year. 2023 felt like this long, never ending global stress test. but it may have been a rehearsal for what may be headed our way this year. tonight, the top global risks of 2024. why the us presidential election may deserve to be top of the list and bridge off in berlin. this is the day. the

truth is, as a result, as a consequence shows our freedom, our democracy are very attractive. and now the deadliest war in decades has erupt. it in the middle east, that one of the biggest dangers of, of this entire situation was that the conflict would spread and we would risk a region wide conflagration. and we face next to an old, you know, different terms real quick. and the challenges we still launched by russia are just to create this idea so important to speak with one voice. wash your space on us to be even more back to policy or role in units. also coming out the tensions between china and the us have asian democracies asking, do we need our own version of nato under this time when he's asked for space, washington supports is plain to see evolving front disability and age are opposing

big questions about whether that's enough but to our viewers watching on cbs, in the united states, to do all of you around the world. welcome. we begin the day going down the list of the biggest global risk of 2024. every january. we take stock of what the of the world as we know with last year and what could do the same in the new year and this january. it's no different for 2024. some of the global risk are all too familiar, some to be expected, and that's according to the racial group and its annual global risk report. the us presidential election has the dubious honor of top global risk rushes invasion of ukraine. israel's war against promising garza and el nino are also included for 2024. we're going to be now is the in river president, founder observation group and g 0 media. and it's good to see us. could we meet like this every year? it seems like in january,

let's talk 1st about the us presidential election of the risk. number one, you are not below here in putting it at the top of the list. i'd like to get your reaction to what a constitutional law professor told me last night on this program. when i asked about a possible trump victory, come november, take a listen. donald trump becomes president again. she's already decided he's going to re vengeance on anyone who opposes him, especially the so called enemy he already has in the government and anybody who didn't vote for him before. but he's also going to join with other strong been dictators around the country. i mean around the world and create havoc around the globe. it will not just wrist within the borders of the united states. there will be, i would say, perhaps world war 3. if he is allowed to join with other dictators and put in

place the nationalist things that he's already advocated in the united states, you know, what do you, what do you think of that? i mean, are we talking about a risk that is so acute, so severe that we could be looking at another more more? let me walk back from the brink a little bit, but i think that the united states democracy is in crisis. if you look at our report, we, we look at american trust in institutions from congress and the executive to the media and the judiciary, to the church and they have all been going down down down. nothing is stopping that . they the, the us is the one democracy in the g 7 that does not have the committed ability to have a free and fair transfer of power in a legitimate national election. that is a serious issue that we should not normalize. and in the next few months,

donald trump, who had tried to, to overturn the outcome of the 2020 of action, is normally likely to become the norm. any of the republican party. and when he does, the republicans will be loyal to him and he will become much more powerful overnight, which means is his policies, his policies, not just domestically, but also internationally. his willingness to go after biden is willingness to cut off the ukrainians. his willingness to go after the iranians trade, the coupling with the chinese, those will become policies that the republicans as a party will pursue up. and so this is not just about the coin flip of where we end up not come this november, but it's also about the entire year where we're going to be in a much more divided much more problematic policy environment for the us and for its allies around the world than people expect, and even if president bible were to win re election,

you're warning the risk from donald trump. they will remain, is that correct as well, but it has been president of for the last nearly 4 years. and while, while on biden's watch, the legitimacy of us political institutions has deteriorated. the house a has had it been been absent the speaker, and is now much weaker. for example, the judiciary has been seen as weaker and more politicized. biden certainly has tried to reduce that level of dysfunction. he's failed, he does not have the ability. and so i, i don't, it is not clear to me that if you elect bite in, for 4 more years from 82 to 86 years of age, that he's going to be more effective than he was in the 1st 4. and of course, also the stakes for trump are much higher it by then wins. he faces jail, trump does, and, and knowing that if it looks like it's going to be very close to, it looks like bite and is going to win. and trump is going to lose the likelihood

the trump would get it. support is try to get a supporters to interfere with the election. also the target of the us selection for adversaries around the world. the russians, for example, the ronnie and the north koreans far more significant in, in potentially leading to k us. then we've seen in 2016 or 2020. so for many reasons, unfortunately, you know, bar and we don't need to be talking about world war 3, right? to recognize that the us versus itself is today by far the most significant geo political risk on the global stage for 2024. and in the meantime, much of the world's attention is focused on the more engaged in the middle east. the razor group has listed this escalation or escalation from this conflict as the your 2nd biggest risk. where do you see this conflict going full? it's very hard to maintain the war in the

middle east, largely on the territory only of gaza. and i use the word only advisedly. i know that's not been easy for anyone to watch for experience. but there are so many other ways that this work can escalate. whether you look at the northern front and has been a lot where the fighting has been expanding and with a, an adversary that is much more powerful than how much is in gaza, a to the is rallies. the who these, who the americans have been warning. don't continue these strikes, they continue to do it. they become more violent, more frequent, that could easily lead to us strikes, maybe with allies against to the bases in yemen. that would clearly expand the war . you also have a ronnie and proxies who they are actively supporting, to fight against israel and the united states among she and militants in iraq in syria. greater likelihood that draws the iranians into a direct fight with israel with the united states. and finally,

the radicalization of muslim populations around the world, some of whom will become violent, some of whom will become organized and terrorist organizations, or lone wolf attacks in the united states in europe and in the region. these are all things that are likely to occur. it is frankly, much harder to see how over the next year, given all of that you could contain this war to gaza as opposed to this, the many, many ways that the words likely to grow. and there's this accusation for last year that the war and gaza was sucking all of the oxygen out of the room, away from russia's invasion of ukraine. where do you see that it's in 2024? it ukraine will be in effect partitions. is that where you think this is hatch headed? yeah and, and of course the ukrainians won't accept that. neither will the germans, neither will be americans. but we know we don't accept north korea, having nuclear weapons doesn't stopping them, have nuclear weapons,

a partitioned ukraine, is what we're looking at, where they're not able to retake some 18 percent of their territory that russia presently occupies the legally. and it is possible that the trajectory of the world will turn against ukraine, especially if they don't continue to get military support. strong military support from the united states, which is challenging and 2024 and becomes more challenging. when trump is the nominee, more challenging still, if he wins the presidential election in november and put and of course is watching that very closely. so in 2024, put and has 0 reason to come to the table. lots of reasons to wait. lots of reason to continue to keep the pressure on ukraine very, very high. that is going to drive a wedge in europe because you'll have several governments like pole in the baltics, finland, sweden, that are deeply concerned that they need to provide the support to crate. no matter what they can't allow the presence the fall, but others who are saying it's not my fight, it's too expensive. we're getting tired. clearly that's a big problem in this environment. and you know, before we run out of time,

don't have to. i noticed that el nino was on the list and let me ask you, if do you see a possibility there of some type of blacks one event being created with the help of el nino? i'm imagining. let's say we have a shared hurricane that slams into the east coast of the united states on election day in early november, making voting impossible for millions of americans. can you imagine that that would happen and what, what kind of, what kind of repercussions would that have for the election? is that a real risk? i'm, i'm probably much more worried about the political intervention against a soft and complex homeland security target like the selections that i am about a natural disaster. but you are right that the frequency and the intensity of these natural disasters, especially in an el nino year, informed by $1.00 degrees of climate change that we are already globally experiencing. will create more blacks one climate events. and increasingly, these blacks, one events are not blacks, one,

so things that we should be ready for. every year, last year we talked about the water crisis, which is still treated as a crisis that occurs and you need to respond to it. and yet, you know, the global water environment is one of this is a structural condition that we need new institutions for. we need new infrastructure for a new capacity for that's what we certainly need when it comes up more broadly to combat and climate change. as you saw with a hard fight efforts to agree to a loss and damages fund the top 28 summit novel dobby. it, you know, you just, you're not even close to the money. it's the resources required to make that a re out. you remember as always, you know, good talking with you and good going through the list. you're trying to make sure that nobody can say that they were not weren't ahead of time. yeah, thank you. thanks so much to or the $51.00 is gearing up for a presidential election this week that will be closely watched around the world

that the book will determine the islands course in the, in the pacific hits a region where geopolitical tensions are going one way and that is up the, the use taipei corresponding james change or has more now on the growing threat from china and north korea across asia, coming friction geo political flush, a career in japan. save you some more credence, continental police took me sulfide last month, can hit anyway. on us the territory and in the new year, young young is going to step up for preparation. elsewhere in the south china sea, china also last month slide was kind of the philippine vessels as long standing there are some tensions spelled out with that. being said, ties with manila apps across roads engine, taiwan, which china claims its own and election is just days away times officials, even so i one's main opposition. policy have cost to vote as a choice between war and pete wasteful. and we see it none of these flash points

and new which is 2024 begins. what is changing is china is an north korean scrubbing. acetic knows not to mention both countries, deepening tires with russia, 3 nuclear on states. 3 powers increasingly frustrated with a us led wealth order among washington partners in asia, including here in taiwan robots, prompting a fundamental rethink of risk. governments of scrambling to bruce defense budgets unfolds alliances around the region. japan is pos, directly to the defense budgets which wants to transform. and despite to start grievances, tokyo is drawing closer to south korea. here, conducting joined to patrol of last year until present japan and the philippines will soon begin to wilkes on access to each other's military bases with the philippines last year, grunting the us success to for more of them in. so i was, this is one response to increase the chinese intimidation of

a domestic. he may train the jets used to prepare the next generation of points of pilots like junk kite. he graduated from the us air force academy before returning to taiwan. we're still well learning from us and try to be stronger. so i'm not worried about, you know, the war floor covering the fight from our opponents. but we, we will start the flight fight actively. but we are trying to be a 100 percent ready if there is possible for end of this time when he's asked for space. washington support is plain to see evolving front disability and age are opposing big questions about whether that's enough and the scope of the challenge posed by adversaries of the us. might need a satellite as an agent to form a collective security packs similar to nato. because now don't think like nato

exists in asia, nato, which label china are a systemic challenge for the 1st time in 2022 already has full partners in the, in the pacific, but those ties full well. shorts, of collective defense, full membership would guarantee. countries of the quad security dialogue a previously held joint with a tree drills. the group also has no collective security packs. the china has long criticized it as an asian nato. and the us maintains mutual defense treaties with these countries in the region. a need service previously shied away from strengthening ties with asian pon is mostly over phase of anger in china. but we'd, agents, ministry mines now rivaling the us so many the reality is changed. and just trying to add new careers, full selections, continue some say in nature style punched in asia. once inconceivable could come closer to reality. the more analysis now i'm joined by for you. daniel's the managing director of the asian

society policy institute, or it's good to have you on the program. i want to start off. we're that report left off. how realistic do you think the chances are of a nato style alliance in the asia pacific region? i think the short term prospects are very challenging for developing and in the style alliance in the asia pacific. there are simply too many competing interest among the types of countries that would come together to form that alliance to see them showing up in any circumstance to defend the other. that said, i think what the bind administration in particular has done quite well is in finding opportunities for us allies to work together on common projects. whether that's in maritime security awareness, whether that is in, you know, digital agreements or work on under these tables. there's been a significant amount of cooperation among us allies and not all of it involves the

us. and i think that that is the type of web de lines system that's more realistic in the short term. i want to get your take on the, the, the upcoming election this year in the united states and how it's going to impact the relationship between the us and trying to me, which we're talking more and more about these 2 superpowers economically. and maybe so one day also, militarily, what happens though, if there's a change in the white house come november? and i think that it's likely that if there's a change in the white house come november and then we're seeing an administration with a radically different sense of how american power can and should be used in the world to protect and defend american interest. it was likely, you know, if the, if there was a change in ministration that i'm assuming at this point means a republican administration coming in. there's a set of ideas inside the republican strategic community in the us. that once the

us to spend a little bit less on its allies and defense partnerships around the world, well still kind of maintaining a strong ability to defend the us on land. so the slightly more isolation is view of how american power could be used to intervene and to support, you know, the overall balance of power. and the issue because i remember for me was president brock obama speaking about the need to pivot pivot from the atlantic to the pacific . but it seems that the current administration mean it's, you know, it's got, it's attention on that ukraine. it's got his attention on godson. how concerned are you that if it wants to continue with this pivot, that the us is resources, it's reach it's power is going to be overstretched. that's a great question. and what i would say is this, the pivot you the asian pacific is

a reflection of us and during interest and the future of asia. and a lot of those interest in the future of asia are not about military defense. they're very much about economic opportunity. and where the pivot has perhaps fallen a little bit short of its goals is in providing the type of economic partnerships and providing the type of political support that would be useful in, you know, defending and entrenching those us interest in asia. so unless worried about the idea that there are military conflicts overseas or defense complex overseas, that the us is involved in. i'm a little bit more concerned about how the u. s. domestic political system is unable to articulate a strategy for the asian pacific, but takes into account our economic interest, our political interest in the asian pacific, and addresses them effectively. i want to ask you before we run out of time it

tonight on this program, we're talking about global risk for 2024. let me get your opinion. remember talking about the in the pacific region is china's claim to taiwan. in your opinion, the, the greatest threat to security at the moment in that region. i think it's one of the most delicate insensitive issues and certainly one of the most risky areas given both the election and tie one that will happen at the end of this week in the us election cycle here. i think for 2024, the risk is probably minimal because of those the, the timeline of those 2 events. i think everyone is going to take a wait and see approach until after the us as the election is over. but certainly looking into 2025, you can see a scenario where there's an incredibly strong robust strengthening relationship between the u. s. and taiwan. and the deterioration of us china relations that does give greater cause for concern that an accident or crisis could escalate in ways

that are contrary to the interest of both sides. but for the moment, i think the, you know, the agreement between the presidents biden and she jumping in san francisco, is that a relatively stable sort under the relationship to manage the next year? yes, so many variables in this equation, i'm going to be amazing to see what we're talking about a year from now. or he daniels from the asia society policy institute. we appreciate your time and your excellent analysis for thank you. was we heard earlier in the show, climate change remains a global risk in this new year. researchers have confirmed that 2023 was the hottest year on record european unions, copernicus, climate change service, looked at global temperature records going all the way back to $1850.00 and scientist. a warning that this year could be even harder. and it's concerning milestones, which didn't come as

a surprise to many scientists. the 2nd half of 2023. so and then usual streak of daily heat reco, it's being broken bit, according to the european union's copernicus, climate change service last year is global average temperature didn't just break the record, it shifted. it's 2023 has been by a large margin. the word missed year in our record that goes back to the 19 forty's . not telling me that, you know, how likely would we have just been through the word missed here already story. and quite possibly one of the word missed or the word missed up the last 100000 years. research is working on the copernicus project found that globally 2023 was on average 1.4 degrees celsius boma than in pre industrial times. they say, while the natural el nino width of phenomenon boosted temperatures, man made climate change was definitely driving the reco dries. but is

a combination of the so mean you're certainly going to do that today and possibly other other sources of buy immediately. so it is not just kind of change, but then it would be impossible to explain this before and go with the temperature . we talked side of things. one area of particular concern is the ocean. the data shows the surface temperatures also smashed record highs. the 2023 results indicate temperatures teetering on 1.5 degree warming. that was the limit said by countries in the 2015 paris climates agreement to avoid the most severe consequences of climate change. but exceeding 1.5 degrees in the short term doesn't mean the code will be broken. also, we end at 2023 just below you. that 1.5 degree limit. the expectation is that in the coming months, we will exceed that $1.00 degrees for

a 12 month period. and however, the powers agreement isn't breaking until we've exceeded that 1.5 degree celsius for a long period of time. and by long period i mean 20 s. while the findings don't spell the end of the power as agreement, it clearly shows the earth's warming is accelerating. and the scale of the challenge, the world now faces is growing with it. finally tonight and fans of the world wide hit streaming series, the crown will not want to miss this within $400.00 proud to used in the popular series are as i understand it, going on the auction block as they include costumes worn by the main characters as well, as what's believed to be the only replica of britain's gold state coach proceeds

from the sale, we'll go to find a scholarship program for britain's national film and television school for they is almost done, the conversation continues online. we will see you tomorrow. the

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