is that one day succeeds here in design, because there are mountings, people will finally be able to leave and cross peacefully without having to fear another war. the, the slow crew come fix and ukraine will soon head into its 3rd year with the pressure on care to advance on the battlefield and re energize support in the west . my guess from belin is alexander w. director of the con, the russia. you raise your center. the bad news is that unfortunately, the support for you raid in the west or public is going down for now. russians. economy has stabilized and mr. pretend incisive on more crimes charges is nonetheless finding plenty of friends to talk to and visit. so what is new found? confidence tim, tim into a big a will with ukraine. i've even

a fights with nato. alex, oh, the god boy of welcome to come fig zone. thank you so much for having me. a week ago, nato secretary general young stalking by one of your lives to expect bad news from the war, a new crime. and he didn't say what you bring. take you a long hard look at this war is you credit on the way to losing? i don't think that you create is all on the way to losing now, but next year will definitely be crucial. and if you pray is not of the book position next year that, that buy shape the trajectory up the call like towards loss of war by i agree. so what we're seeing at the moment, this is a slow that you often see with major conflict. that's true, and i think that the comparison bases for this coffee could be blown. one work, the lengthy iraq iran war. we're now seeing that the green has lost the initiative

. it's pushing on some direction without major gains. it's summer counter offensive has not yielded in major called but victories. and then the russians are now on advance with terrible losses on their side, both material in equipment. but the russians are advancing. and what's more russians have a lot of money pumped into their military industrial complex and into recruiting use soldiers. so now the material advantage is gradually on the russian side, and without massive support for ukraine. we might be seen this accomplish on a trajectory for russia's victory e by the food and doesn't that cheapest max and elliptic objectives. and let's talk about the chances of uh, massive support for your crime. because last month, nato foreign ministers tried to put the best face on the situation. they promised unwavering support as they portraits as the ukrainians bravely defend the country.

um, the figures tell a different story down, but not quite adding up to unwavering support. i mean, you brand to provide us with 50000000000 euros and budget support. that's stuck in committee. a $60000000000.00 fund promised by the white house is stuck in congress . this is bad news, isn't that the bad news is bad unfortunately. uh theres support for your trade in the west ser applique is going down and then it also became a stores for olympics making for domestic purposes in the us. and also for intra european union and conflict between some get we're gonna leadership and the rest of the union inside the you. we're talking at the moment when president zelinski is scheduled to arrive in washington dc. he's most likely to speak to the

leather ship off the senate and the congress. he is about to see prison bite. and so i think that the, i'm now at all the support of the us and the timing, whether the, the, the radians get the money they need to defend themselves for next year is up in the, or the fact that it's not kind of a guaranteed a very well scheduled train of support is a bad news, but i think that it's too early to be desperate. but i think that the dreary warning side is that it's most likely will be the last massive package for the next year. and the question is how wisely the ukrainians are to spend it. later this week usually does meet in brussels with the possibility of making a historic decision to open. accession talks with ukraine hungry has threatened to block the move you mentioned hungry a moment ago. either way, decisions that at this meeting, put aside the outcome of this war, couldn't buy,

i'm supplies to you kind of already being drastically affected. but i think that it's not deciding the outcomes of this more. but i think that if we don't have a positive decision mask, that 8 uh, what support for you, free, then the trajectory also called so you can go in and you negative direction for to you. and despite the bravery of ukrainian defendants and the resilience all, the ukraine of society without massive influx or western material support the situation, the pretty dar kia institute for the world economy set down in december. the 7th, newly commit today to ukraine, reached a new low between august and october this year, but almost 90 percent dropped compared to the same period last year. the crumbling must be jumping for joy is with the credit is and we've seen president coding gloating around out. i think he's meeting with rational and was senior military

staff. she was awarding keywords of russia awards a couple of days ago. and he said that, pray doesn't act on and he doesn't have his own defense base. and this is why the trajectory all that comes the for is in rushes, fever i see might be wrong, long term, but sees unfortunately, right, right now. and it's everything in the hands of western. oh, is it a leadership to problem to support and brought the white house national security advisor jake sullivan said last week, that any short full in funding would quickly compromise ukraine's defense capabilities in your view? how long does you credit and have to get the weapons? it's calling for bits for its troops, not only failed to advance, but actually begin to retreat. oh, there is a discussion inside ukrainian senior military leadership, but the political leadership,

as well as among friends off you prayed in the west. what's the best strategy? the ukraine should follow right now, because russia is probably dog in, but you, real advantage is on the russian side, whether it makes sense for the crate to try to break through the russian lines given how it was off to the troops off for the batter approach for now is not the chase calendar offense, so it's next year. but the good in 45 defenses. be able to retrieve the troops, do another round up invalidation train war troops and then come war prepared, probably in 2025. i think that's a probably dated issue right now, and depending on the decisions that the visitor, our leadership and political leadership will date, we'll see how they will go about whatever happened to all those extravagant promises that the ukraine received over the last 20 months. which with folsom and

in many ways unique look at the way the last, almost overnight into an organization that supplies military hardware look at the change of heart in germany, be much publicized site and then the turning point in history. the jobs to show spoke up, was that in your view or was a time line attached to the west largest. moscow was believe it was believed that hasn't it. the most good deeds ben's on the fact that western support for ukraine will evaporate at some point. that moscow has much more at stake, given disappointment is up session over this war and given how seemingly united the society is behind this war. i think that based on the work done by my colleagues, aren't to get dolman and read the less me. now, partners sociologist, dennis ball comp, we see down around 20 percent, a die hard supporters for these,

for the russian side and about 50 percent are very ass up and we'll go into whatever direction the risk. so on the russian side, you have a can on the growth, do you have concrete, military production, and you have pockets because this more is the organizing prison all of for access, more of all listed in domestic polls. you threaten the russian who is that the west at some point bill pack and lead. and again, it's all totally up to the western leadership, had to societies to and how you train to stand in this battle because i think that we have some communication gaps because the west, the meters help explain to that society is white. so crucial to you a support you great, and i think that's more questions iraq so, so there is a need, there was a need for a new round of explanation why this conflict is so it's essential to westside in the crown. so president job michelle was asked on this program about europe's commitment to ukraine. you said the you would stand by ukraine for as long as it

takes to secure victory. do you think such promises were made in good faith? they are, but at the same time we don't have a very clear definition. what victory is, that's also ease achieve. oh, we know what a lucky is, don't we? we certainly know what a loss is when dealt with. didn't know what the last was and the last is when you crean doesn't to cheat annual fits objectives. and the cost of this war is borne by both russia and the crate. but costs on the creative side will be much bigger. i think that right now are the discussions that you're having is that how realistic are the definitions for victory? put out by presidents, the lensky which is $99.00 to $1.00 borders, including crime, the reparations. so russia should pay for the damage and accountability for the work driven mills, including both senior russian leadership and present

a wedding or how to leveled us that we are dealing with the nuclear power is quite simple. and i think next year uh, the western leadership has not smart way because there is no other way to tell you pregnant what the definition of victory should be. have pushed this to g of leadership. and so to say that, oh, you create new leadership should define what victory cost reduce and will be there with them till, till they at. now i think it's the recording time for ukrainian leadership itself to define how realistic those goals are and what is the strategy to achieve something which will be the primary leadership sticks to the position that it's not going to give up any land on the country. once the land back um that that looks increasing the achievable doesn't that i don't think that it's feasible to imagine that any you create new leadership will legally abandon any charge or

occupied rush. be to grade work. the other 4 regions that happen are actually occupied the next by russia late next year, but they could be all the ways to brayden this issue. and to say that's the orbital longer so sleepy or unfortunately em. and if you grade achieves it's $5.00 to $9.00 to $1.00 bores. what prevents russia from shooting over the 1991 borders? it's not that ukrainians. well, would we gain territorial integrity of their countries as really nice by the international community? and then vladimir button, they'll say both, sorry, i lost you was unpacking, then go to or bind myself a plane ticket to the hate. so why don't the weight each, i'm sorry to advise you called go home. uh, i'm to add the county boots, you know, he can, he can not. uh, and we can imagine a scenario where she was this, the more than stays in power of likes, likes,

uncle said after seas debacle. think wait. but it's unlikely. no. and how much, what do you put in bang on his legacy over annexation of, pardon me, in other parts of your great, mister god, boy, if the crumbling appears to have stabilized after you have gained the precautions in this new today, the rather predictable plane crash that he suffered but will have been bothering so the booting showed unexpected weakness the pressure might someone i've already decided that, well they need to do is give them another push and maybe they could clear the path to someone else taking over in the crime to do think so it's like that crystallizing at the moment. i'm rushing leaders. no, i think that these hopes are true to you. i understand why people want to see somebody taking care of the world's flooding. they're putting problem, but that is unfortunately not happening to the country. pre gardens, virginia has only 45 minutes to put in script,

but he how do we mean they get the most dangerous rival? that's the also south fried and procrastinator for the problem to get bigger and bigger. but now this problem is fixed. everybody in the elite got the message and everybody's not rounded round was by miss. look around this button, billingsley, but they understand what price they will pay if they ultimately step off against this. it puts you yourself wrote in july how the new to the had exposed what you quote, the fragility of pollutants power system. people won't have forgotten that fragility will that what amounts to a danger for the lead and putting was by all accounts in some danger is always an opportunity for opponents, isn't it? that's just politics as it's for you, but the off the resume for sure. but time and again, we see that mixed up putting is learning some lessons and that the system is adopted. remember, a how miserable russia look back to feel at the very beginning. it's called to

where he gradient really being in far less up and teaches position just pushed back and smash a lot of russians, who at which a real security already. and yet, right now, we see that russians are learning the lessons and able to charge the tie. something similar just happened to the political system. yes. then you didn't, you have showed how fragile this, the step is. but this supporting can fix some of the speech. you one last some of the fall from seeking a so gold off from, from his war. and you, great. bruton is preparing for an even bigger war. do you still feel that way? and if so, how big might this will be good. that's exactly what we're seeing. now mr. put in will invest 6 percent of gdp. do defense and to where needs the frame, 40 percent refresh and budget next year we'll go to defense and security. that's more worth that at any given moment since collapse solve this. so i'll get you. did

he is increasing the troops numbers and he's military industries working in 3 ships using materials to defeat your crate. so i think that for now, the war is contained in ukraine in t is the story is, i don't believe that he will be able to achieve his maximum list of goal to put the front the government into to help. but if he's not the chart, i would say that the risk for further and it challenges, i've re challenges the baltic states or to some of what the supply countries is, unfortunately not entirely suit. so when joe biden says, if put in, takes you credit and he won't stop there. and then we'll have something that we don't seek on not we don't have today. american troops fighting russian troops do you believe, but that is a possibility. even a distant one is anybody would say to me 2 years ago, i would say,

oh yes you have to like russia is very serious about natal article 5 commitment. it's definitely understanding that our symmetry between itself and nato. no nato is not at risk at all. right now, i'm not so sure if he is victorious in ukraine. if he sees that ukraine is a broken country as he can occupied the land with impunity, and there is a leader elect, donald trump for challenges. the utility of nature to american interest that the pension to kind of challenge article 5 will be there. i still think that the risk is low or direct competition between russian the us. but the risk is unfortunately going up, right? but if we were to discover the optical 5 isn't worth the paper, it's written on nato's finish, doesn't it? that's absolutely true. and that might be the data of the russian side. so many people who are wrong about putting supply this to invade you crazy,

because objectively speaking, if you are a rational product, which is the list of downsides for rusher is just so long. it is killed, thousands office, be bolting, but it gets both professional military. it's sanctioned, it's isolating from the world is becoming junior partner of china, but we support and it's not the church. and jesus grip on the 14, russia is frank's it. so what it is course is proven to be a winning course, at least for himself. and you get, impose this music on the russian leads that the patient shall edge article by nato and chase the americans out of europe will be growing the support of this not getting younger. he's not getting any rational. so the risk are not 0. unfortunately, this might be the issue that he can stop scratching, you mean in other words? yeah, and this is exactly why getting serious about defense and getting as serious about

side when the and all the promises that were made. 2 years ago when rushing made it ukraine, i think are really very necessary to fulfill not only to support ukraine, but for your own security and tell you meant, is there a way to go for it? unfortunately, let's look if we may add, pretends friendship with china. so you wrote last spring, but thanks to the war and you create russia and china are now closer allies, but at any time and the 2 countries, martin history, do you believe that's put in this new best friend? she jim thing would go along with the idea of a big a wall. i think that mister season p in a cool new care less where the conflict between where the border worth the contact line between russia and ukraine is as long as this war doesn't go nuclear and she is not blamed to support that. she will respect american red lines which have been communicated to, you know, genetic, military direct support,

no military. what's your real and bind walrus? she follows that. why? if russia is weekends, isolated and more align and supported that you're trying about. what's the bad news for you? he only likes this situation. what about voters of a foreign friends suddenly he's popping up in the u. a and saudi arabia where he was greeted as a very dear guest of the kingdom in moscow. he's been putting out the red carpet for foreign leaders like the president of it wrong so much for the international i selection that was expected to follow is indictment tool, war and war crimes charges. is he just flaunting his impunity? or is he busy putting together a new id, west of access? 3 quick points. i think that's the illusion about the, the global unity in isolating russia. it's just the illusion and it's a fantasy. it's very easy to cast up to see me or below it, or

a boat criticizing russia in the un general assembly. but so many countries in the global south, not only china, but also the largest democracy in the world. india are having a beneficial commercial relationship. and they're not abandoning vladimir putting same goes for countries in the gulf, including u, a in saudi arabia, to receiving, quote. and with this, the symbols of prestige and welcome is also a way to show to the west uh that, uh, this region as friends. and this is tied to the west and how do they offer gossett christ and war between israel and a moss? and the finally, yes, mr. poodle is trying to book this call, listen to the other. what's the is called the global majority. i don't think that anybody in the global south is really the leading to support and bunch of stuff that's used to where it gets to grade is the rebelling against us. had gemini,

but so many countries are following the narrow, pragmatic interest and blaming device on double standard. the say, what about iraq? what about of gone to stop? and frankly, there is not that much introspection that we convinced this countries that russians were a gastric freight is entirely different level of violation of the national boards as to what expense. i mean, you talked a bit about the, the rushing economy to what extent have improvements in that economy helped to keep the russian people, if not on site, then at least not protesting to the people protested, i'm just the thousands of them. i've gone, haven't they? they've left the country, but somehow they seem to have re aligned or color less the round the kremlin happened thing is that the economy we have we enough the estimate upfront leased out for 1000000 people leaving the russia for good me included for a country or more than 114000000,

that's not too much. and these are people who are employable in global markets. there are so many people who want to leave russia, but couldn't because of these of restrictions and many other policies. for the remaining people, it's a mix. all violence because protesting has a very top price. you see alex in nevada and they, you see so many thousands of brave russians who have dear to protest this war and have been beaten and it proves on that. so what the russian society is optimized in mr. putting these building, he is regime on this level. i took this ation f lack of unity. but then another element to this is really the economic prosperity, because uh, the war has made a lot of low middle income families really receiving a lot of money because the government is paying people to go into the product lines . it's the gave them to have to cash routes for tablets,

but wanted to kill. so it is a rational strategy for somebody to go to fight in ukraine because he established will be provided. do you measure briefly? the garza war is obviously diverse. us weapons and ammunition from ukraine to israel. and it also leaves america increasingly isolated diplomatically . so it's a play, a benefit to put through this and that there's no downside for him in this war to clear benefits of his support and that he has and create that there is no credible evidence that he was in any way involved in commerce attack. but she's definitely taking a one side and reset the one sided for all mass stats. he is not the exit que. take the even balance russian for obviously not that much sleep but the for the weeks it's a horrible job or sound tax. and yes, the us forces are diverted to israel,

attention of us senior policy makers, including president biden himself. and he's national security team. is that brought it to the middle east. and then the double standards of the vast are something that needs to put and has preach to the global south, and he has a child around there. so very briefly, does that be moscow is ending the year on something of a high looking better than it did a year ago. but if you look back where the 20 pre has been a really surprising the good year for me start putting and it's read it in the hands of the west sun. paul listed meeker to make sure the 2024 is not as good for alexander god, way of spring. good to have your own complex. i'm thank you very much for your time . thank you so much for having me. in the

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the grave of his son who was killed and the conflict between guides to the gun violence is spreading throughout the country. what is the swedish government doing the focus on 0 in 90 minutes, dw, the, you'll see about the video that goes in the media and legal law. give a lot done, but again, i will stop into that and i'll give you a go on and you are you able to order that up? joe, media, doctor coverage, the more people than ever on the news world wide and such. but this are nice to be able to use man and they can't mess with the 2 megs of appears in the general does

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you're watching dw, and you like somebody that is the professor defend itself and quote against accusation from jennifer. jordan's begin to the un stopped forward and the head of the zeros war against him off java, shoals know laptop, and it's federal city. also coming off so many of the stuff on. so i spoke to south area and a major fall to say you were to unbutton, approved to the every or by the city guided weapons deliveries to the kingdom of frozen house with killing of 200 enough to mob crush up to soft back. for those things and the price of the president says his country is that more of

a job gang off of the wave of the deadly violence the storm in.