mary, today and election day in november, a lot can happen, but look around the world from russia's war and ukraine potentials over taiwan to the is really palestinian conflict. geo politics appear to be in a holding pattern. tonight, a world reckoning with a 2nd, trump presidency in terms of foreign policy, is president biden, already a lame duck and break off in berlin. this is the day. the choices are so strong. i bought it for him. last time. it was, it was touching, go, would not have bought it for him. if i knew what was going to happen, but then there were a few issues in the end that trump on. i feel like we need to get younger than that would be times where i would vote republican, but at this point i just can't imagine voting again with what i've seen. i don't

know, we've had the same system for so long. i think we need change to me. the biggest issue is our democracy. i just really don't want our country to get donald trump again has been a lot of attacks on him, but i ignore that. also coming up the uranium threat to israel, a network of proxies or using missiles and means and that despite the reprisals from israel model for someone who says, why not attacking you ran, we are testing it do. how do you run? is the head a deal to this and you can see its tentacles all around the, to our viewers watching on tv, as in the united states into all of you around the world. welcome. we begin today with the truck factor in global geo politics. the world is watching what happens in new hampshire today and what it will mean moving forward towards the election day in november. and there is the saying about elections. people elect the candidates,

they deserved. well, that may or may not be true, but in the united states in this year's presidential election, the voters may very well not get what they want. a majority say they do not want a repeat to the 2020 joe biden. donald trump contest. the assumption however, is that a repeat is all but guaranteed. in fact, america's allies and its enemies appear to be behaving more and more on the assumption that there will be a 2nd, trump presidency. we'll discuss this in just a moment. the 1st take a listen to what the trump factor sounds like. look, nato is taking advantage of our country. so you are paying countries. took advantage of russia, said one, stay take ukraine. poland and the baltics are next. those are nato countries that puts america at war, that far we should give you credit the equipment and, and munition they need to win. but i think we are talking too much about donuts

from and you could well be elected again despite the fact that many people in europe where we are now or not really is biggest fans, the ships and the people our selves for a possible 2nd. so for donald trump, by fostering, are you a competitive? so my next guest, as the donald trump is already re shaping geo politics into 2 distinctive camps, those anticipating a boom and those bracing for anything. but graham allison served as assistant secretary of defense under president clinton. he's been the advisor at the pentagon and every administration from ronald reagan to donald trump. and he was the founding dean of the harvard kennedy school of government, where he has taught for 5 decades professor and assistant secretary alison, it's good to have you with this tonight. i'd like to if i could just because i'd like to discuss your recent article in for an affairs and just a moment. but 1st you attended the word economic form in davos, switzerland last week. i'd like to get your take on what they were saying. there is

it all about a 2nd, trump presidency, which certainly a set of steel specter of trump. i'm going to training for the 1st time people's consciousness. and i was one of them said that they were killed a sense of the ghost of christmas past. so i think those who remembered the trump administration made me did strong with a c or a lot. yeah, let me just talk a little bit then maybe about the ghost of christmas future you brought it in for an affair, is that russian president vladimir putin is counting on a trump victory. what does this mean in your opinion for you cree? i think there's no question the more and you probably and we'll continue through 2024 uh and the filling in destruction that the ukrainians have

suffered in the past year is the best predictor of what they've got in store for the year. ahead in the article, i asked the question that i've noticed this already in the, you know, in, in watching the tea leaves. that if, if somebody were prepared to settle the war at this point for a long ceasefire or armistice with the troops staying in place. where they are. so russia still controlling about 20 percent of your weight. i think clinton would very likely safe. thank you very much, but i'm going to take my better than even chance that a year from now i'm going to be dealing with trump to present very clearly. he would tell. so let's get you. we're struggling this in one day. we've cut off false report for you. you make the best deal you can. this war is over. so if you

compare all what ever could be offered to put in the day, was what he makes might be in store a year from now. i will see a likely hedge when i think that some of our hedge, or hesitation is infecting us relations with all other countries today as a picture about whether any year the us may be under radically different management . yeah, and i want to share one segment of your article um, with our viewers, and this has to do with european weapons for ukraine and you right? when considering how many tanks are artillery shells to send to ukraine? some europeans are now pausing to ask whether they might need those arms for their own defense or trump to be elected in november. that's quite a statement to make up. mr. allison, i mean in, and we hope it's not for shadowing. but do you see trump as president, being

a green light to vladimir putin to push as far as he wants meaning beyond ukraine? well, i would, i would say that he is as a green light. but i would say that the consequence of trump, if he were to tax the way did he did in the last administration, i am, his disregard for alliances. and his clear of discussion is you can, if you look at the letter of resignation by the secretary of defense, to matters about the differences between matters and talk over the alliance is quite clear. trump thought from time to time, maybe we just withdraw from in a toilet. and if god forbid, we should do that or even come close to doing so. the consequences were nato would be a catastrophic tongue. cataclysmic and european countries would have to

be thinking about the role of defense, though that's just judging that they should be busy. but i mean, yeah, i long and then in favor of, of you, europeans being more serious about their own defense capabilities. but i think it's for the 1st. 6 image conversations, i've heard in germany and france of some of the other countries, people are thinking, you know, maybe we really would have to fight for ourselves. and if we did maybe tied shore artillery shells are, you know, about our own defense, this, this anticipation fear you can call a dread of a 2nd truck. it has the world in a sort of a standby mode. does that make joe biden, a 1st term lame dog president between now and election day? and that's a painful question. and unfortunately, to some extent,

the answer has to be yes. so when the present biden alert of his national security team or trying to deal with anyone today, say, let's settle this today, that they have to recognize that they do recognize that the party withdrawing their daily is asking themselves well. but if i don't like the terms today, what might they look like a year from now? and similarly, if i do accept the terms the day, what could happen a year from now? nobody can forget that the obama administration negotiated painfully. with all of the big patrice, including germany, the reading and book, we agree with the j. p. c. o, a. and that, and his 1st year in the office, president troubles said, we'll just have this up and proceed independently in our own. you know,

in our own path. so prisoners have a great deal of discretion and particularly given the current uh, different divisions within congress, giving a treaty level agreement, or 2 thirds of the senate would agree on anything. it's almost impossible. so understand that really countries are hedging, but understandably that we're giving the head for president the fight. do you think that explains what we're seeing and is real why israel's prime minister netanyahu was now so openly defiant of israel's most important ally, the us when he says that he will not support a 2 state solution to these really balanced any in crisis. i think that is part of it. i think that in part, i mean the main thing is this has been b, b 0. this is that there's art, she really believes this. so actually it's essential for the coalition, including the right wing that he's we have all these people here been bower,

but certainly i think he's looking over his shoulder say, i have had a very good relationship with the truck. i think guys are in the manage the americans to mr. watson. i want to ask you before we run out of time, you know, we are a primary season in the united states last night. the co founder of the lincoln project re galen. he told me on this program that a win for donald trump in november, a 2nd, trump presidency would guarantee the end of us democracy and the end of the world order, which the u. s. has led for 7 decades. those are strong words. do you agree? uh no, i think that's too strong. i think that to uh, i probably have a ninety's that are somewhat nice faith in american democracy. i think the country has gone through before the payroll for the correct one. we

actually did have a civil war. we should remember which almost the country was split into 2. we went to a great depression, which you could have seen the rise of fascism. we didn't. so i, i think that the american political traditions are strong. the american people ultimately are more sensible when they made a pretty rich of which color i, i work and i take that to your, your image in pain, both from the, by the administration and from the truck and ministration. that the election of their adversary will mainly elizabeth and democracy, or the end of america. as we know it, i've tried to use been resilient. i think it's just the 2 issues are resilient. and i was worried about that said nobody's ever made money in the long run, selling the us short. all right. and with that positive that silver lining. and the story will say,

thank you to professor greene allison from harvard university. professor allison has been good talking with him. please come back next time. thank you. thank you very much. i of the war now to israel's war against the mos in gaza. tuesday was the deadly is day for is really forces since the homeless terror attacks on october 7th, 24 is really soldiers were killed in the gaza strip as the military tried to in circle southern guns as main city boats. and the soldiers were killed in an explosion in central garza, according to is really military officials, 2 buildings that they had been mine for demolition collapsed after her. most militants fired at a nearby tank is really prime minister benjamin at yahoo, called at one of the most difficult days for his country. and he added, it is real, will not stop fighting until absolute victory is achieved. i wonder when it's almost as big as the porters is. the regime in iran, which has

a goal of destroying is real, runs influence reaches far beyond to mos in gaza, the clerical regime and t. ron is using a network of proxy stretching from israel's border with 11 on to iraq, to syria, and along the red sea. all of these proxies are part of the strategy against israel and its main. l. y. the united states is ready troops on the advance footage from israel. this minute tree shows its policies fighting in the gaza strip. 5 minutes to benjamin netanyahu has repeatedly framed to this as a struggle between israel and to run which backs him us. israel has long being locked in to shut a wall with 2 round conducting co you but strikes and targeted killings. it was believe 2 of being behind this striking damascus at the weekend. but nothing yahoo essays country is not meant direct conflict with around the model for some who says

why not detecting you ran we are attacking it. do on the run is the head a deal to us and you can see its tentacles all around. a run box, a network of militant groups throughout the middle east, among the goal was to undermine his royal and dr. balance american influence. these proxies have become more active following the october 7th tiro attacks in lebanon to run supports in arms hezbollah, seen by some countries as a terrorist organization is fight as fire rockets into israel, and almost daily basis is re elizabeth hunting for you. these images released by these rarely me. but why was situation, hey i, the border is tense. so you, for each side is being careful to avoid an escalation. iran also on the who face an armed group in human civil war, which is these control of large parts of the country, including the carpet to send off now, but whose these are we're talking commercial ships and the red sea they've released

this video shows them boarding and seizing a cargo vessel, they say the thing is sort of that i would say with the palestinians. well yeah, i bought a young men is bravely standing against israel. thank god for your beautiful efforts. brave, mighty and proud jim. and is defending the oppressed and strong palestinian people the most competitive for this thing. the united states and others have sent war ships to the region and launch strikes on who's the targets, or another friends in iraq and syria, way around appears to be encouraging is malicious. to attack us military base is washington has responded with his own strikes. others are israel as president, is calling for global response to the east challenges care. there is an empire of ego emanating from to her, on the proxies all over the region, quietly, larking, dwanda, mind any piece processing and the stability of the world. and that is exactly what

we are seeing and they have to be faced by very strong coordination for the moment . gaza is the most active friends in these railways, cold war with around but turbines, proxies are becoming more heavily involved. each a strike and counter strike could bring besides closer to open conflict. what i'm doing now bye alex, the tanka director of the run program at the middle east institute in washington, dc. mister tank. it's good to have you with this, this, this growing involvement of iran, proxies what is driving all of it? is it all about the war in gaza? you know, i think in many ways we really need to go back to the creation of this law made republic back in 1979. and when i told the home and he came to power, he kind of create an agenda that this is his successor. i told the harmony was

being powers is 89, have been pursuing, which is basically the 2 pillars of this original agenda as to end the state of israel as we know it. and to push the united states out of the region. and i think, you know, this island republic is to be pretty fateful and sticking to this agenda at a very high cost. so the radian nation and people, but that's what we are at. now. having said that, on the one hand, well they do want to push the united states out of the region and confront israel. as we've heard, the radius supreme did say himself in menu occasions since october 7 arrived is not in the business of confronting the us, or is israel military directly? so what they're doing instead is the sort of low intensity waterford through this network of a groups that they have created in the last few decades. but it's still not without its risks because of what he right does not know is the reaction from the west ultimate, it could, could be quite costly for you. right?

yeah i, i've read that it is the goal of the islamic republic of a run to not to kill is real, not with one blow, but with 50 minor or smalls stabbing wounds if you will. and with that in mind, do you think then that iran has more plans and if yes, what might that look like? a i think the reading game plan is pretty obvious in the short term is just bringing about a ceasefire in god's as quickly as possible. both for the military and reasons, as they say, but also to salvage as much of the how much community wing as possible the re neighbors. you would like to see a ministry wing. i must exist and continue to be a point of concern for the is raise going forward in years to come. so that's the sort of game plan in the short term. i think, you know, long term to things that iran is banking on. one is not to get it subtract into original war. certainly not the one that involves the united states. because once

the us into the war against era that really puts these nomic republic, i'd risk. i mean, if you trip is nomic republic is not a certainty, is, is a regime that is huge on popular with its own people. this is a regime that has pursued a foreign policy. that's a huge, unpopular with the rating and public. so you don't take a big risk finding the united states and for that reason they don't want to go there. at the same time. what they're hoping to see is that what israel is doing, guys, it's conduct in gaza, will undermine israel's long term presence in the middle east. and for example, chip away of support and quick countries that recently signed the abram accords the saudis, the way and so forth. so that i see, i think, and in summary is what the radians are playing on. how has iran regional policy shifted since the start of the war in gauze a bit really has and i mean the to pick big issues that i just mentioned in terms

of trying to save as much of from us as possible. take this bullet out of the war and also prevent a direct confrontation, united states, those things have been true since they want. what we saw in the last few weeks, particularly the attack in the city of pure mind, but isis for us on a new re, in response to it when they started finding ballistic missiles into syria, iraq, but also pakistan. it's sort of creating a new set of questions into right. and then as somebody was in iran, watcher, i think they're now wondering if what they have done, particularly needs to be packaged, starting with the right course of action, you know, to fire off ballistic missiles of the country. that is 3 times the year population that has nuclear arsenal. it just suggested recklessness on the part of the range and regime that ought to concern all of us. so $11.00 has to hope that messages are going to tear around that. look. one thing is to have proxies a fire off, you know, small rockets into northern israel and get away with it. another thing is it is to

for you, right, to think that he can afford original war against adversaries that are much bigger than the ride has faced in recent years. you know, on the outside people looking in at the situation that would consider the abraham a cordial, re seen several muslim majority countries managed to normalize relations with israel and then they, they look at me as well. i mean, republican, be running and ask, why hasn't iran managed to do this? i mean, is it as simple as, as a, she assumed the divide or is there more to it as well? the, the really limited to of israel is limited to design made republics leadership. they really, people are not a, you know, at these really and before 1979, you're right in israel had good relations as we all know. but as i said, it's on the committee, came in 1979, decided to turn this in into a issue that his regime would invest in has done at a very high cost of i to the farm and a who is the leader today at age of 84,

i doubt very much. he's going to change his position. but i think people that are sort of waiting on the wings trying to maybe be the successors to, to this the brain need or they need to really seriously do better. soul searching is what are you, i'm doing with the era israel, of any serious benefit to the reading and national interest. i think most objective observers would say, no. it's an ideological commitment by this receipts. but if they chose a different course of action, these would be israel, that would really benefit you around because it will break it's isolation. i'm wondering to help this entire situation is affecting iran domestically, thinking about the recent age protests against the government. there's the faltering economy and there's the 45th anniversary of the islamic republic, which is coming up soon. a right, well, i mean, this goes back to what i said before about the regions and regional war being something that's too much of a risk for i to the harmony and the generals into revolution regards. precisely for,

for the fact that you just mentioned public sentiment inside of it, right? this is a very angry, rainy, and pollock. this is a public that looks around and the inside of the border sees incompetence, mismanagement corruption on scales and never seen before. and in terms of foreign policy of regime that is basically taking groups everywhere you look while not being able to protect the radians citizens against basic threat such as ices from for us on as we just saw in, with the attack in fairmont. so it's a, it's a regime that, it's really, it's a regional policy was put to a vote inside of it, right. i have no doubt it would not be able to do with a one point final point if i make but go ahead on what be heard from the got 30 seconds. go ahead and take a look at the issue also. is this iran benefits from other peoples in the region? a particular, in this case is well making mistakes. if there was a real serious attempt to, to speak solutions in uh by the palestinians and israelis that uranian minutes in

the message would be so hard for to arrive to sell. so that's important for us to alex, the tank of director of the run program at the middle east institute is the retainer . we appreciate your time and your analysis tonight. thank you. thank you for the day continues online. you'll find this on the x also known as twitter, and youtube and dw news. you can follow them, be of grand golf tv. and remember whatever happens between now and then tomorrow is another day. we'll see you then everybody, the

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