the, the, the, for nato, a worst case scenario would be a russian attack on one of its members stage. and now it is rehearsing weren't exactly that possibility. it's running. it's the biggest military trail since the cold war to practice as the response. the exercise is called steadfast defender and it see some 90000 fruits from 32 countries taking part with fighter jets tanks and warships. that's all shortly before the 2nd day nursery of russia's full scale invasion of ukraine. since then, cube has fall to expel its invaders withheld from western weapons, but will the support continue today on to the points we're looking at is imperial emissions, and asking is the west and leaving ukraine out to drive the

hello and welcome to the point time claire richardson in berlin, there's plenty to impact today, and i'm so pleased to welcome our fantastic panel to do just that. we have a mark was kind of a senior fellow at the german institute for international and security affairs. a need a senior fellow at the german council on foreign relations. and for the few, anita, we have dw scenario and brussels correspondent, terry shops joining us today from finland. so in a, almost at 2 years of war, we seen ukraine repelling a russian invasion. and i want to just take a look 1st at where things stand today. terry, from what you're hearing in the halls of nato. how serious is the situation in

ukraine as well? we have known for a long time clear that it is critical and you know, you constantly hear that ukraine is running out of ammunition. now they're even concerned that they're running out of soldiers because president zelinski has, has been unwilling to make the most dramatic call ups of his citizens. and now it's looking like he might have to do that. so when you hear the stories of ukraine fatigue throughout the west, throughout nieto allies, particularly in the united states right now, you wonder, just how much more dangerous can't get for ukraine? how much longer can they hold on when they're not getting the supplies they need? and when countries which have them are did the ring about whether they can afford this, that's a really big concern. meanwhile, the frontline allies of nato, the baltic states and poland realize every day that if you cream doesn't when they believe food is coming for them. next, so this isn't just a critical issue inside you credit. it's also a critical issue inside europe and countries. and marcus,

this has really turned into a war of attrition, hasn't that you're seeing not much ground, one on either side, but both inquiry really bloody losses. do you think that this kind of war is to rushes advantage? i totally agree. we have seen this situation for a couple of months now in military times. no major move and i think, you know, we see fighting or every day every, the people, every day people are dying are. but if you ask for the big picture, i think there's the large movements on the ground and then the ability to read that as well. we don't see any political initiatives and people that they, you know, they go to the case what's going on. however, i think they is moving to on, in other arenas in europe, as mentioned military before in the united states as well. i think we're going to talk about this in a couple of minutes. so it's not some of the both to focus on ross on to crane on the, on the front of the farm, the mall, to put a degree arenas in width and capitals. and we certainly will be talking all about

that in just a moment. but 1st i want, i want to come to you for your opening thoughts. what is your view on this war of attrition? do you think that putting is sitting here? rubbing his hands with glee while he waits for western support to fade for ukraine as well. he has been very self confident in the recent public statements also and it looks like it. and there is something still called elections. presidential elections and frustrating march. i think he is pushing his during those for us some kind of a symbol. it could make 30, maybe after you've called being overtaken, although there is not much left. and the russians are russian armed forces. now do have initiative. so the, i think pushing the recreating defensive. but we will be remains to be seen, not to how much munitions rush or we'll have, but in few months, how much of a russian armies there they will need to do new mobilization, which is very tricky in a big country because it's still putting doesn't want to admit that the country's

fully in war, although the defense industry is running fast, he wants to gun us as a, as a west. i think he comes on luck over as well. it this to step up over the defense industries, including in this country, and then he's waiting for your selections. um, what i hear from many people are looking at these rational experts. he's not really for peace negotiations before the end of the year. and if they will, only practically to squeeze out to ukraine, the big goal for almost go is still not to take 3031 kilometers, cleared it over to here and there. but this triangle, ukraine is the sort instinct for so many moving parts here. and as we've heard, and munition is a huge issue for ukraine that has been ripping through artillery shells and ukrainian commanders say they are not being replaced as fast as they need. every shot is precious. ukrainian folders only have 2000 bullets to fire at the moment.

russia on the other hand as at least 5 times that much. the appeals and cheese are becoming increasingly urgent. bolted, levine overall, and i am grateful to all friends of ukraine world wide or even understand that you're just the battles, the more not simply wait and i think you should put it and that we cannot wait to save lives. we to all those, we're trying to expedite the necessary decisions these people, 3, they are needed right now. but 8, it's slowing down. despite political resistance, the us granted another $250000000.00 in military age shortly before the new year. but it remains unclear whether further supplies or funds will follow. and the you just also following considerably short of its commitments. often only verbal promises are made enough to think according to french president emmanuel. i'm a con, a russian victory would mean the end of european security. that is why we will

continue to help them ukrainians. the reality is different. in march 2023, the promised ukraine that it would supply $1000000.00 artillery shells within a year. so far, only 300000 have been delivered. russia, on the other hand, has expanded its arsenal of weapons withheld from 8 on an north korea. in addition, the russian arms industry has massively ramped up its production, which is increasingly performing ukraine militarily. can ukraine counts on more help from the west? so me one, let's pick it up right there. if you were speaking to ukraine's leadership and advising them, what would you tell them? can they expect or western support? i think the, the understand that they will be more um support in financial support in particular coming from europe rather than the us germany and german consul interestingly stepping in to lead on this. um, he's talking

a lot about the next week. you're up in cost with special calls for the for agreeing of the funds will facility for ukraine to the tune of $50000000000.00 euros for 4 years um august. the 3rd one is through booking it. but you see a lot of shows actually making sure that there is an agreement on this. so we crank and rely on it. the question about how this is, mike was we'll explain this better, why this is important, but i think it will be bigger challenge to keep public support behind such moves as, as we go and get into your yeah, marcus, do you want to pick that up? why our are the terraces so important for ukraine and just more generally, how much are we seeing? a lack of ammunition in ukraine affect their ability on the battlefield right now? give me 22 or 3 points. the 1st one, i think, we see that the european arms industry is suffering from 2013 years of no product or less product concerns. move as in quite difficult in the last couple of

months to speed up production in your pain and your paints equities. i'm taking these and we're seeing that we have seen the commitment of the european union to arrive mid 1000000 and selves to ukraine of things and find them at the end of the will be 300000 as far as i don't remember. so this is too little, i think we're going to see more and it was even a few with the 2526. the they might be too late. and if the end of the and if it is intimate though for the root of the results, and assuming the answer, i think is the bigger problem. because at the end of the so many, we have been called this really mean times of type. and then time they've changed to be gray going into the informations. the event that i'm gonna go into is, but i'm particularly looking for ways to go with the glasses, the not to put into list price of the time. like i'm

a zone population. got really still unclear whether this turning point will really happen in german history of terry. i want to come to you because we did hear and nato chief, insulting or warning that the warranty prentice turned into a bottle of ammunition. and the alliance has agreed a want to point 1000000000 euro contract for hundreds of thousands of 155 millimeter artillery rounds. can you tell us a little bit about that and how much of it we can expect to go to ukraine? yes, sir, i would like to actually unpack a lot of this discussion on munition, because i've been tracking the entire process actually going to an ammunition factory in norway and watching these $155.00 millimeters shells be forged in fire because i wanted to understand just what is holding up your supply of ammunition to ukraine, and there are a lot of places where the process gets dragged down. the 1st one being that, as was mentioned, europe's weapons,

manufacturing capabilities were scaled way back before they ever thought that there would be a war coming close with russia. and so it wasn't possible and it isn't possible, even in the best of circumstances to just buy 150 millimeters shells, off the shelf. they are all custom made specific to countries. and so they, it, most to your european allies, nato allies have set what they could from their stockpiles. and is $1100000000.00 deal that you just mentioned, this joint procurement that was announced this week that is only going to be for shelves that are delivered in 2 years, 2 to $2.00 and a half years. it will take to supply that order and i have to say that this is made by allies who have not have not said at this point, that they will send them to ukraine and who even knows what this issue situation will be in 2 years time. but it takes so long to make the shells, and as you mentioned, they didn't scale up fast enough to fulfill this promise to have a 1000000 sent by the end of march. so you cream remains very much out in the cold,

in terms of getting the shells, and we don't even know how much more might be spared from european stockpiles. it's a big problem for ukraine, but it also has a problem that comes back to europe and allies when their own comfort levels of their stock piles are, are below where they would like them to be. but in fact, we did not see orders go in fast enough to the weapons manufacturers, despite governments saying they wanted to scale it up quickly for you created for themselves. okay, so these are not being produced fast enough. it's not even a clear whether they will go to ukraine and yet, marcus, uh, the ukranian side of lease publicly seems to still be remaining very optimistic about this. is this just for show to avoid a self fulfilling prophecy? i should have given the impression that that without western support, a weakening western support that is really going to be hung out to dry. here. my question would be, what is the alternative for the ukranian government does to smile and to pretend to be happy based on alternative. i think the quite

a way i think that the ones and the majority of what the government spends the large lesson governments still make the same claim. as in february 2022 ukraine main or new was for us, i mean, or when. but if you raise a question, what does it mean in financial terms? in military times? i think the peut and the accountant said was going through all the dock and i'm not confident that there's both hands and diversity of a few weeks. and you mentioned the torres issue again in berlin. the heart is on part of things. i mean is it in a strange sound thing? any particular avoiding them present to provide long term mississauga to grain and now they're going to the u. k. and then you gave me, provides them to ukraine. this is an strategic form policy. and this is

a pity. yeah. so talk a little bit about germany's role here, but me when i want to come to you when you're looking at arms deliveries from europe for ukraine. i mean, who do you point a finger at here? who is to blame and who is really hitting the brakes on sending additional ammunition and supplies to ukraine? well you have um you have a public this course which is changing because it's no longer prime list of hungry saying he would know that there were any weapons. it's so now i'm just doing my own country. slovakia pizza who came famously was selected. so with the saying, no, no, no, single blackmore, why the in fact he's government is still living is just not from the arguments from the army. we're obviously they're empty of the previous government. the everything they could, but they are contracts the private contracts running there is also a lot of flows go through 32 of so like, you know,

from germany and others. and the prominence defeats it was at the chancellor yesterday talking with the shoulds about new competition contracts between the 2 arm and industry. so you have a public this course you have a you have also society in my own country. part of it is really tired from this war in neighboring country and would like to see some signs that the politicians are trying to encourage some kind of a ceasefire. so i think the prime minister fits on is a way of that. he's looking at pools. he needs to say one thing, but then in fact, quiet, he's doing something else. if you look at the eastern plank of nato, you have really different approaches even to the restaurant that down the road to 3 years. not every sort of politically lead in countries. they're thinking that they are, they can be testing by don't, you know, everybody's pulling the baltic countries the so some of these countries including i would go get into this kemp, i think, okay, maybe we can because we can sit it out and actually we will test them directly to

us because we are always friendly. that's fascinating, isn't it? i mean, looking at the case of slovak and rubber feet. so because you've got a neighboring country, i'm making big claims about wanting it to stop arms deliveries to ukraine. but then as you say, he seems to have changed his tone recently. can you explain for us a little bit more what is going on there and, and why you see these differences between different eastern countries regarding their attitude toward rush and the war and ukraine. you have different history, you have a different of the societies. so yes, if 60 percent of society, my own country wants something different course on government then then these new leaders providing while, i mean what's interesting is he met the kindly prime minister to me how they knew, hold on before coming to berlin. they agreed 3 infrastructure projects, things like railway connection from key of to cost you to the airport so that people from gift can use the airport to fly out. and they will meet every 2 months

with their ministers to really sort of put this a robust corp. it's such a big contest with big throw a bunch hungry yet, the public line overall, the speed. so he's basically no more, no more web on support. change of course, it's not really a change of course, but it's very different political communication about it looks like a quick look also at western support here. um, because look into the us. i mean there's even potentially more bad news for ukraine here. uh terry. um, you know, the elephants in the room, the possible and, and not unlikely election of donald trump as the next president of the united states. and he has both said that he could end of the war and ukraine in a day if he comes to power. is this just the typical trump bravado or, or is there something concrete to his plan? what could you create, expect, or claire? i'm going to be honest, i don't spend a lot of time looking at donald trump's suppose

a piece plans for you crazy when i'm so busy looking at, you know, ammunition deliveries to the soldiers who are fighting on the ground. forgive me for that, but i will point out the president zalinski said, hey donald trump, you've got a plan, a real plan, come on over and show it to us. so i think president zalinski a, you know, is, is masterful of his communications as well. and sort of took the lead on that, but i will point out that i wouldn't say any nato ally has confidence in a trunk plan and, and really wouldn't like to, to think that there's, uh, you know, a possibility that this is going to be something there us to sign onto, i'm standing in a city where i also covered the trunk, brewton summit in 2018, and that is something no one would like to see a repeat of the relationship between trump and putting is something that worries nato allies, european union, partners every single day and you said, you know, is the elephant in the room, but i can't tell you how many conversations i have already had about people's worries that, that donald trump could be coming back as president of the united states. and what

that will mean for nato, and it's unity. i'm sorry, thank you so much for that. um, you know, as we've heard and need a really wants to deter russia from pursuing any of his other imperial visions. and that is one of the reasons that we've been seeing the biggest nato exercise in decades. i'd like to take a closer look at steadfast defender. it's the largest military drill since the end of the cold war. 90000 soldiers from 31 nations will undergo 4 months of emergency training to prepare for the scenario of a russian attack on the needle ally. this seems more probable now than it has been in the last 30 years. russia's invasion of ukraine has presented nato with new challenges, militarily, politically, and ideologically support for your credit is still trying to get the support to credit is investment to the old security. and therefore, allies have provided unprecedented support in all way around thinking production. the needle wants to strengthen its air defense by placing an order worth billions

allied nations plan to purchase up to 1000 patriot missiles. nato is upgrading with more soldiers, weapons in new members, including finland and soon sweden is the alliance prepared for an emergency. so is nato prepared for a worst case scenario mark is i wanna 1st look at how likely this is that we would see a russian attack on a needle member state. and then we can turn to nato's preparedness in such an event . what do you think? how realistic is it that russia would try to attack a member of nato? i think nobody knows what's inviting me to put into mine, so i wouldn't dare to speculate about it. but i think for the next couple of years, we had quite save the military capabilities. all right, so i have been severely diminished in ukraine. we see some determinations and to replace them in personnel times, but also in military capabilities. and but i think ready, mean,

put in knows the difference between keys and tell him as a sonya is involved in a door to a big one example. and i think he has to realize then for the, for the serious repercussions. for, for him. i mean, i'm sorry to jump in, i don't know. i'm curious what that means and agrees with that. okay, go ahead. i think we slipped through before the worst activity when we slept through the fact that this is different, actually different put in the if you remember his conditions before the war started . well, he wanted, he wanted to roll back nato to 1990. i paid the so trigger public, poland hungry not hosting. so caused me to time for center. this is crazy because it means that we cannot exclude that. when you crane war ends, he will poke to the business at the weakest point. and i think the weakest points about the countries. in fact, i talked to people from the new government in warsaw last week. and they're there. and that is that in 2 to 3 years, if the water ends next year, 2 to 3 years later,

we kind of exclude that they will be small incidence into both to countries where the rush, i will try to see and learn, you know, how they told you, they react maybe to head bumping and think there's a different and now the dimensions we sometimes overlook, which is the confrontation which is not mended. henry, the holy bit hold pain of this information, sidebar espionage, and the stablish a we see more involved this and then this is quite an important part of the man. so the western russian conflict, and if you would ask me, i would bet more. all of these deputies days, the operators over off on at the premier, for our vendors, for us and ball, and the bone blends, waiting across the board that expect a full blown military confrontation of the of to come. i suppose we will have to wait and see no one will know for sure until then a terry, let's look then at, you know, if this were to happen,

how prepared nato would be. and do you think that focusing on white, or nato preparedness, looking at the possible attack of one of its members state, is actually detracting and taking away from its efforts to support ukraine. so well, let me just pick up on that, comments about the presumption that russia will poke at the finish russian border because that's one of the things i'm here reporting on. and that is very much what they think was happening with the russia, you know, facilitating migrants coming to the border and pushing them over. they think russia wanted to see how resilience finland could be right now and see if there was any, you know, sort of changing the armor of this new nato ally of the european union. and they have not found that to be effective, so, so much at the moment, but it doesn't mean they won't try somewhere else. and yeah, sure, i mean, nato will say to the ukraine's constant heartbreak that it's, his job is to protect every inch of nato territory. so when, when it comes to it, i mean, that's really what they're doing here is making sure that their own territory is

not vulnerable to any kind of, of russian invasion, including the hybrid warfare tactics that were mentioned here. so it does take some attention away from ukraine, but i mean, nato is unapologetic about the fact that that's why it exists. it would love to help push russia out of ukraine. if it doesn't mean any, you know, nato allies to boots on the ground. if, if allies can, you know, maintain their own self defense with what they sent to ukraine, but in the end, nato is really here to protect itself, and that's what steadfast defender is about. and marcus, your view is nato leaving ukraine hanging here as it looks, a potential for us elsewhere to. i would agree, i mean, we have the nato summit as you um and, and you claim it was denied for membership and the alternative would have been or has been sole goal, not security guarantees about security agreements with in the 7 states. and these have limits days and as far as i can see, that has not months in progress and this,

the bates and this agreements and everything at the end of the day, i think all of western governments have to raise. and i have to ask themselves in grants, and what are they going to do to defend ukraine? not only now, but also in 5 to 10 years. and i think that's a lot to improve. we're going to have to leave it there. thank you so much to our audience for watching into my fantastic guests for your insights and analysis. i really appreciate your time today. you're watching at home and you enjoyed the show . let us know if you're watching on youtube. you can drop us a comments. i am clear, richardson in berlin, and i am so grateful you can take the time the next time the,

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