the, the for nato, a worst case scenario would be a russian attack on one of its members states. and now it is rehearsing for exactly that possibility. it's running, it's biggest military drill since the cold war to practice its response. the exercise is called steadfast defender and it see some 90000 troops from 32 countries taking part with fighter jets tanks and warships. that's all shortly before the 2nd day nursery of russia's full scale invasion of ukraine. since then, cube has fought to expel its invaders with help from western weapons, but will to support continue. today on to the points we're looking at proteins,

imperial emissions, and asking is the west and leaving ukraine out to drive the hello and welcome to to the point. i'm clear, richardson in berlin and there's plenty to impact today. and i'm so pleased to welcome our fantastic panel to do just that. we have a mark was kind of a senior fellow at the german institute for international and security affairs. i mean, i need a senior fellow at the german council on foreign relations. and for the few, anita, we have dw scenario and brussels correspondent, terry shops joining us today from finland. so in a, almost at 2 years of war, we seen ukraine repelling a russian invasion. and i want to just take a look 1st at where things stand today. terry,

from what you're hearing in the halls of nato. how serious is the situation in ukraine as well? we have known for a long time clear that it is critical and you know, you constantly hear that ukraine is running out of ammunition. now they're even concerned that they're running out of soldiers because president zelinski has, has been unwilling to make the most dramatic call ups of his citizens. and now it's looking like he might have to do that. so when you hear the stories of ukraine fatigue throughout the west, throughout nieto allies, particularly in the united states right now, you wonder, just how much more dangerous can't get for ukraine? how much longer can they hold on when they're not getting the supplies they need? and when countries which have them are did the ring about whether they can afford this, that's a really big concern. meanwhile, the frontline allies of nato, the baltic states and poland realize every day that if you crane doesn't when they believe put in is coming for them next. so this isn't just

a critical issue inside you credit. it's also a critical issue inside europe and countries. and marcus, this has really turned into a war of attrition, hasn't that you're seeing not much ground one on either side, but both incurring really bloody losses. do you think that this kind of war is to russia's advantage? i totally agree. we have seen this situation for a couple of months now in military times. no major move and i think, you know, we see fighting the every day every, the people, every day people are dying. i. but if you, as for the big picture, i think there's no large movements on the ground. and in the particularly knows why we don't see any politic. and then there's that there's any policies in the legal case that's going on. however, i think there's movement on in other rina's in europe, as mentioned military before in the united states as well. i think we're going to talk about this in a couple of minutes. so it's not some of the about the, to focus on rather than to crane on the,

on the front of the farm. the more the put the good read us in width and capitals and we certainly will be talking all about that in just a moment. but 1st we want to come to you for your opening thoughts and what is your view on this war of attrition? do you think that putting is sitting here, rubbing his hands with glee while he waits for western support to fade for ukraine as well. he has been very self confident in the recent public statements also, and it looks like it. and there is something still called elections, presidential elections and frustrating march. i think he is pushing his generals for us, some kind of a symbol that can make 30. it may be after you've called being overtaken, although there is not much left. and the russians are russian armed forces. now do have initiative. so the, i think pushing the recreating defenses. but we will be remains to be seen not to how much munitions rush or we'll have. but in few months, how much of an army is there? they will need to do new mobilization, which is very tricky in

a big country because it's still putting doesn't want to admit that the country is fully in war. although the defense industry is running fast. he wants to gun us as a, as a west. i think he comes on luck over as a loop is to step up over the defense industries, including in this country. and then he's waiting for your selections. and what i hear from many people are looking at this, russia, experts, he's not really uh for peace negotiations. before the end of the year, and if there's only technically to squeeze out to ukraine, the big goal for most go is still not to take that authorities one kilometer squared over to here and there, but this triangle, ukraine does this wooden state. so, so many moving parts here and as we've heard, and munition is a huge issue for ukraine. it has been ripping through artillery shells and ukrainian commanders say they are not being replaced as fast as they need. every shock is precious. ukrainian folders only have 2000 bullets to fire at the moment.

russia on the other hand as at least 5 times that much. the appeals and cheese are becoming increasingly urgent. molded levine overall, and i am grateful to all friends of ukraine world wide or even understand the battles the more than not simply weight. i think you should put it and that we cannot wait to save lives. we to all those. we're trying to expedite the necessary decisions needed people 3, they are needed right now. but 8 is slowing down. despite political resistance, the us granted another $250000000.00 in military age shortly before the new year. but it remains unclear whether further supplies or funds will follow. and the you just also following considerably short of its commitments. often only verbal promises are made. according to french president emmanuel, my con,

a russian victory would mean the end of european security. that is why we will continue to help the ukrainians. the reality is different. in march 2023, the promised ukraine that it would supply $1000000.00 artillery shells within a year. so far, only 300000 have been delivered. russia, on the other hand, has expanded its personal of weapons withheld from the dawn in north korea. in addition, the russian arms industry has massively ramped up its production, which is increasingly out performing ukraine militarily in ukraine towns on more help from the west. so me one, let's pick it up right there. if you were speaking to ukraine's leadership and advising them, what would you tell them can they expect or western supports? i think the, the understand that they will be more support in financial support in particular coming from europe rather than the us germany and german cancel it. or

interestingly stepping in to lead on this. um is talking a lot about the next week. you're up in coast with special causal for agreeing office funds or facility for ukraine to the tune of 50000000000 euros for 4 years um hundreds of weeks or months through booking it. but you see what i've shown is actually making sure that there is an agreement on this so we can, can rely on it. the question about how this is, mike was, will explain this better, why this is important, but i think it will be bigger challenge to keep public support behind such moves as, as we go and get into your yeah, marcus, you want to pick that up. why our are the terraces so important for ukraine and just more generally, how much are we seeing? a lack of ammunition in ukraine affect their ability on the battlefield right now? give me 2 to 3 points. the 1st one, i think, we see that the european arms industry is suffering from 2013 years of no

product or less, for the concerns of, of as been quite difficult in the last couple of months to speed up reduction in your pain. and your paints equities, i'm factories and we're seeing that we have seen the commitment of the opinion to a variety, mid $1000000.00, some selves to ukraine, of things and find them at the end of the will be 300000. as far as i don't remember, so this is too little. i think we're going to see more fuzzy. but if you're looking at $2526.00 the it might be too late and event of the. and if it is, it's a minute though for the root of the results. and assuming the answer, i think is the big problem. because at the end of the day in so many way of can call to really be in times of type. and then the time they've changed to be gray going into the informations, or the event that i'm gonna go into is quite,

i'm particularly looking for ways to go with the glasses, but not putting too much price of the time ago of the population. yeah. really still unclear whether this turning point will really happen in german history of terry. i want to come to you because we did here at nato chief insulting the warning that the war ukraine has turned into a bottle of ammunition. and the alliance has a great, a one, a point, 1000000000 euro contract for hundreds of thousands of 155 millimeter artillery rounds. can you tell us a little bit about that and how much of it we can expect to go to ukraine? us? yes, sir, i would like to actually unpack a lot of this discussion on ammunition because i've been tracking the entire process actually going to an ammunition factory in norway and watching these 155 millimeters shells be forced in fire because i wanted to understand just what is holding up your supply of ammunition to ukraine, and there are a lot of places where the process gets dragged down. the 1st one being that,

as was mentioned, europe's weapons, manufacturing capabilities were scaled way back before they ever thought that there would be a war coming close with russia. and so it wasn't possible and it isn't possible, even in the best of circumstances, just by 150 millimeters, shells, off the shelf. they are all custom made specific to countries. and so they, most, your european allies, nato allies, have set what they could from their stockpiles. and is $1100000000.00 deal that you just mentioned. this joint procurement that was announced this week that is only going to be for shelves that are delivered in 2 years, 2 to $2.00 and a half years. it will take to supply that order. and i have to say that this is made by allies who have not that have not said at this point, that they will send them to ukraine and who even knows what this issue situation will be in 2 years time. but it takes so long to make the shells, and as you mentioned, they didn't scale up fast enough to fulfill this promise to have

a 1000000 sent by the end of march. so you cream remains very much out in the cold, in terms of getting the shells, and we don't even know how much more might be spared from european stockpiles. it's a big problem for ukraine, but it also is a problem that comes back to europe and allies when their own comfort levels of their stock piles are, are below where they would like them to be. but in fact, we did not see orders go in fast enough to the weapons manufacturers, despite government saying they wanted to scale it up quickly for you created for themselves. okay, so these are not being produced fast enough. it's not even a clear whether they will go to ukraine, and yet, marcus ukraine, inside, or at least publicly, seems to still be remaining very optimistic about this. is this just for show to avoid a self fulfilling prophecy? i should have given the impression that that without western support, a weakening western support that it's really going to be hung out to dry. here. my question will be, what is the alternative for the granting government does to smile and to pretend to

be happy based on the alternative. i think the quite a well, i think that the one saying the majority of what the government spends the large blessing governments still make the same claim. as in february 2022. ukraine may know news for us, i mean on when, but if you raise a question, what does it mean in financial terms? in military times? i think the peut and the accountants that was going through all the dock. and i mean, i'm not confident that this will change and the policy of the future. and you mentioned the taras issue again in berlin. the heart is done and part of things, i mean, is it industry and sounding company, if a particular avoiding them present tools and provide long term miss of to grain and now they're going to the okay. and that you gave me provides them

to ukraine. this is an strategic form policy, and this is a pity. yeah. so talk a little bit about germany's role here, but me when i want to come to you when you're looking at arms deliveries from europe for ukraine. i mean, who do you point a finger out here who is to blame and who is really hitting the brakes on sending additional ammunition and supplies to cry? well, you have um you have a public this course which is changing because it's no longer prime list of hungry things. he was not that of are any weapons. it's also no problem just on my own country. slovak you have a bunch pizza who came famously, it was connected with the saying, no, no, no single. that's more why the in effect is government is still delivering is just not from the arguments from the army. we're obviously, they're empty up to the previous government that they want everything they could, but their contracts, the private, the context running there is also

a lot of flows go through $32.00. it's like, you know, from germany and others and the prime minister fee to us at the turn to lady yesterday talking with all of shows about new corporation contracts between the 2 arm and industry. so you have a public, this course, you have a, you have also society in my own country. part of it is really tired from these board in neighboring country and would like to see some signs that the, that the politicians are trying to encourage some kind of a ceasefire. so i think the prime minister fits on is a way of that. he's looking at pulls, he needs to say one thing, but then in fact, quietly, he's doing something else. if you look at the eastern plank of nato, you have really different approaches even to the restaurant that's down the road to 3 years. not every sort of politically lead in countries there. uh, thing that they are, they can be tracking bios, you know, everybody's pulling the baltic countries the so some of these countries including i

with google getty onto this kemp, i think the okay, maybe we can because we can sit it out. and actually we looked at them directly to us because we were always friendly. it was fascinating, isn't it? i mean, looking at the case of lavaca and robert pizza, because you've got a neighboring country. i'm making big claims about wanting it to stop arms deliveries to ukraine. but then as you say, he seems to have changed his tone recently. can you explain for us a little bit more uh, what is going on there and, and why you see these differences between different eastern countries regarding their attitude toward rush and the word ukraine. you have different history. you have the different the societies. so yes, if 60 percent of society, my own country wants something a different course on government then then these new leaders providing while, i mean it was interesting. he met the kind, the prime minister to me, how they knew, hold on before coming to berlin. they agreed 3 infrastructure projects, things like railway connection from key of to cost you to the airport so that

people from gift can use the airport to fly out. they will meet every 2 months with their ministers to really sort of put this robust corp. it's such a be contrast with because they're all bumped hungry yet the public line overall the street. so he's basically no more, no more web on support change. of course, it's not really a change of course, but it's very different political communication about it looks like a quick look also at western support here. um, because looking for the us, i mean there's even potentially more bad news for ukraine here. terry. um, you know, the elephants in the room, the possible and, and not unlikely election of donald trump as the next president of the united states. and he has both said that he could head into the war and ukraine in a day if he comes to power. is this just a typical trump bravado or, or is there something concrete to his plan? what could you create? expect is claire. i'm going to be honest, i don't spend

a lot of time looking at donald trump's suppose a piece plans for ukraine when i am so busy looking at, you know, ammunition deliveries to the soldiers who are fighting on the ground. forgive me for that, but i will point out the president zalinski said, hey donald trump, you've got a plan, a real plan, come on over and show it to us. so i think president zalinski a, you know, is, is masterful of his communications as well. and sort of took the lead on that, but i will point out that i wouldn't say any nato ally has confidence in a trump plan and, and really wouldn't like to, to think that there's, uh, you know, a possibility that this is going to be something there us to sign onto, i'm standing in a city where i also covered the trunk, put in summit in 2018, and that is something no one would like to see a repeat of the relationship between trump and putting is something that worries nato allies, european union partners every single day and you said, you know, is the elephant in the room, but i can't tell you how many conversations i have already had about people's

worries that, that donald trump could be coming back as president of the united states. and what that will mean for nato, and it's unity. i'm sorry, thank you so much for that. um, you know, as we've heard it need a really wants to deter russia from pursuing any of his other imperial visions. and that is one of the reasons that we've been seeing the biggest nato exercise in decades. i'd like to take a closer look at steadfast defender. it's the largest military drill since the end of the cold war. 90000 soldiers from 31 nations will undergo 4 months of emergency training to prepare for the scenario of a rush. an attack on an nato ally. this seems more probable now than it has been in the last 30 years. russia's invasion of ukraine has presented nato with new challenges, militarily, politically, and ideologically support for your credit is still trying to get the support to brand new investments, the owner security, and therefore outliers, how to provide the unprecedented support and all way around thinking production the

needle wants to strengthen its air defense by placing an order of worth billions allied nations planned to purchase up to 1000 patriot missiles. nita was upgrading with more soldiers, weapons in new members, including finland and soon sweden is the alliance prepared for an emergency. so is nato prepared for a worst case scenario mark is i wanna 1st look at how likely this is that we would see a russian attack on a needle member state. and then we can turn to nato's preparedness in such an event . what do you think? how realistic is it that russia would try to attack a member of nato? i think nobody knows once in vladimir putin, it's mine. so i wouldn't dare to speculate about it. but i think for the next couple of years been quite save the military capabilities of ross. i have been severely diminished in ukraine. we see some determinations and to replace them

in personnel times, but also in military capabilities. and, but i think ready, mean, put in, knows the difference between keys and telling, as, as tonia is involved in a door to a big one example. and i think you have to realize that for the, for the serious repercussions for, for him. i mean, i'm sorry to jump in, i don't know. i'm curious whether you want agrees with it. okay. go ahead. i think we slept through before the worst activity when we slept through the fact that this is different. the rush of different puts in the if you remember his conditions before the war started, well, he wanted, he wanted to roll back nato to 1990. i paid the so trigger public, poland hungry not hosting. so caused me to time for us after this is crazy because it means that we kind of exclude that when you crane war ends, he will poke to the business at the weakest point. and i think the weakest point is developed countries. in fact, i talked to people from the new government in warsaw last week and they're there.

and that is that in 2 to 3 years, if the water ends next year, 2 to 3 years later, we kind of exclude that they will be small incidence into both to countries where the rush, i will try to see and learn, you know, how they told you, they react maybe to had funding. i think there's a difference in now the diamonds. we sometimes overlook, which is the confrontation which is not mended. how are you the holy bit hold pain of this information, sidebar espionage and the stablish a we see more involved this and this, this is quite an important part or the minutes of the western russian conflict. and the, if you would ask me, i would bet more, all of these deputies this operators over off on, at the premier, for undefended franklin ball. and the bone bleeds waiting across the board that expect a full blown military confrontation of the of to come. i suppose we will have to

wait and see. no one will know for sure. until then a terry, let's look then at, you know, if this were to happen, how for shared nato would be. and do you think that focusing on white, or nato preparedness, looking at the possible attack of one of its members state, is actually detracting and taking away from its efforts to support ukraine as well. let me just pick up on that, comments about the presumption that russia will poke at the finish russian border because that's one of the things i'm here reporting on. and that is very much what they think was happening with the russia. you know, facilitating migrants coming to the border and pushing them over. they think russia wanted to see how resilience finland could be right now and see if there was any, you know, sort of changing the armor of this new nato ally of the european union. and they have not found that to be effective, so, so much at the moment, but it doesn't mean they won't try somewhere else. and yeah, sure, i mean, nato will say to the ukraine's constant heartbreak that it's, his job is to protect every inch of nato territory. so when, when it comes to it,

i mean, that's really what they're doing here is making sure that their own territory is not vulnerable to any kind of, of russian invasion, including the hybrid warfare tactics that were mentioned here. so it does take some attention away from ukraine, but i mean, nato is unapologetic about the fact that that's why it exist. it would love to help push russia out of ukraine. if it doesn't mean any, you know, nato allies to boots on the ground. if, if allies can, you know, maintain their own self defense with what they sent to ukraine, but in the end, nato is really here to protect itself, and that's what steadfast defender is about. and marcus, your view is nato leaving ukraine hanging here as it looks, a potential for us elsewhere to. i would agree, i mean, we have to as nato, so much as you, um, and in the, in the new claim was denied for membership. and the alternative would have been or has been sole goal, not security guarantees about security agreements with in the g 7 states. and these are members dates. and as far as i can see,

that has not months and programs and this the bates and in this agreement. and i think at the end of the day, i think all the western governments have to raise. and i have to ask themselves like when to, what are they going to do to defend ukraine? not only now, but also in 5 to 10 years. and i think there's a lot to improve. we're going to have to leave it there. thank you so much to our audience for watching and to my fantastic guests for your insights and analysis, we really appreciate your time today. if you're watching at home and you enjoyed the show, let us know if you're watching on youtube. you can drop us a comments. i am quite richardson in berlin and i am so grateful that you can take the time the next time the,

the, the

shifts, your god to life and it digital you know, the latest online trend to navigate your way through the digital jungle global perspective. we'll be your guide and show you what's possible. really message to you in 15 minutes on the w. we love your we love does the t

anything no mountain is too high. the road is too long. in such a faith, ordinary we have a specialist of lifestyle, 009. in 30 minutes on d w, the district have a site to make the buying decisions. these are being used on the ground. water can remove, follow cause problems sponsored 0. so it's one of the sale when he knows how to use it, it's not. i mean, this guy knows about energy in

a way that these as much structures have no idea. it's been pretty clear, especially of late often can be the printer. what just the, just behind the facade of this imagery, john, tell us gas from russia's political weapon does february 3rd on dw, frankfurt, a hot international gateway to the best connection, south road and radio. located in the heart of europe, you are connected to the world experience outstanding shopping and dining offers. antonio's services be our guest at frankfurt and bought cd, managed by front, bought the

facilities of a news line from the and in the u. n. stop course orders. israel to prevent genocidal acts and the international court of justice also rules, but israel's must do more to protect civilians in the casa. the stopped short of calling for a ceasefire. the un agency helping palestinians in gaza, finest several stuff allegedly involved and they come off terror attacks against israel on october 7th. last is growing opposition to the rise of the far right. the alternative for you have any policies writing high in national polls? some say pressure.