the, the let someone else to, to see the highlights of selected for you, new every week in new a box. subscribe. now. gus promise sponsored xerox con. it's wanted to say a weapons and he knows how to use this to me and to extend this guy knows about energy in a way that these as much functions have no idea. it's been pretty clear, especially of way to energy, often tend to be the printer symbol. that's what menu deals can be looking for

warnings to fix that. but just a glimpse behind the facade of this energy time. tell us, gosh, come russia's political weapon starts february, 3rd on dw, the germany is being left behind as the global economy out performs expectations. that's a conclusion you can draw from the international monetary funds latest, well, economic outlook update. so let's discuss what the i m s. things 20 valuable housing store with petticoat of, of brooks, deputy director of the i'm us research department. thanks a lot for being with us here on the date of your business. if i can just put you on the spot to start with, i'm ask you to sum up in just a sense in swap 2024 is looking like from a global economic perspective. a sure for the global economy,

we see declining inflation and steady growth, which open the clear a path to a softer landing, soft landing actually. so that's, that's generally good news for the economy as a whole. well, let's have a look at how gross is going around the world. let's get a quick look at just a quick math that we put together the strongest price that we're seeing in 2024 according to the math is gonna be coming out of a user with a solid, if it goes for in different parts of southeast asia. the arm if expects 4.6 percent growth from china, although i think badging would prefer not to be somewhere closer to 5 percent. the 2 point one percent production for the usa is stronger than previous forecasts. but what could i think if a gemini is lacking well behind, is bad and struggle is to get the wheels going again to get his economy up to speed . just say we're point 5 percent growth forecast for this year as a pressure co wave of books. we'll talk through a few of the figures we've just seen that, but let's start with that number for germany. it is out performing in comparison

with the economy is the i m f is now less optimistic for the country for this year . why? as we see different countries having being effected very differently over the past couple of years by the numerous shocks that have hit. so germany into your area more broadly has been very much affected by the large energy shock. the terms of trade shock that we have observed in that us forces affected inflation. is it affected alpha? so we had expected a recovery to start and we're still expecting back in for this year. but compared to all the previous forecasts for germany, we've seen just the more sluggish and a restart the private. uh huh. consumption and sentiment has remained relatively weak. but all of that being said, we do expect the rebound to happen. as inflation comes down,

real incomes are going to go up. and the brunt of the monetary type thing that has happened is, is also going to materialize. so in the 2nd half of the year, we're certainly expecting growth to, to pick up substantially. did you find any evidence of why domestic consumption hadn't reached this other level? was that you were expecting it to be reaching by this point? well, i think a lot, again has to do with the log decides of these shots that we had seen. i mean, we have seen, of course energy prices coming down, but the impact of that it's been takes a while to materialize and also again, you know, really incomes have been eroded. so i think it's in the stand about that, that people would be a little bit more cautious when they, when they spend, and also compare to the us. um the i think there's being less of kind of tapping into excess savings in order to, to fund private consumption. so that i think is another factor that has made

a difference in, in recent quarters. demons of being a bit more frugal with the nit expected. that's one way to put it. and also on that map we saw sheets guys in positive southeast asia and in the 56 percent in indonesia or in the philippines. it's not playing a key role in maintaining global credit. yeah, if we look at the overall growth figure, not the revisions, but the growth, a bulk of that is really driven by, by countries in, in asia. it's india and even china. although the growth rates, they are not as what they used to be in past years, but still very, very robust growth. and as you mentioned, indonesia, philippines and so on. this is a very dynamic part of the world and the underlying trends growth rate. they're just significantly higher than they are in advance to funding these,

but also another emerging market street region. okay, well, let's now look even wider at the picture until 5, the end of the global economy. and all of which of course is contribution to buy these things they've already been talking about with us. just give us a quick snapshots of the states of the world economy a by the i m. s reckoning global economic growth is expected to be 3 point one percent this year, which is slightly up on the most previous forecast. i did. 2025 is projected to be 3.2 percent centers west. just bearing in mind that i still found that below the pre fund, demik average that has made name of 3.8 percent playable grace. anyway, let's bring back. betcha, cory, the brooks from the i m. s. u. now more optimistic for the global for global growth this year in, you know, just a few months ago was changed to healy a bit more optimistic. we have seen a lot of resilience across the board. and we've seen those in economies like us in china, but also in, in

a number of large emerging market economies. and the reasons for this resilience um have to do with some of the consumer spending, but also government spending as well as on the supply side, we've been surprised by the better than expected labor force participation that we see. another way of putting it that maybe the scarring from the pandemic is being less than what we had previously anticipated, which is good news. and this is also why we're seeing these, the kind of different developments on inflation and growth. we have a upward revision for growth, but a downward revision for inflation when weeks fluids. um, excuse me, examples extreme cases stuff such as surgeon, tina. yeah, and indeed many central banks do appear to be a winning that we're on the inflation of war that began joining the pandemic and reach to speak many places in 2022. so play will headline,

inflation looks set to fall from industry to $6.00 in 2023 to 5.8 this year. and to continue to was target level as in 2025 is folding faster in most regions and previously expected and having a less severe impact on employment then some have said you kind of just touched on this, particularly the books. but i mean what, what's your assessment of the reason for inflation falling out bit faster than have been expected? i guess. so the, some of the supply side, the positive supply side developments that i mentioned has to stay the role here. as i said, the, the labor force participation coming down, but also the of the supply disruptions that had been a big issue in the past. all of those have also been on my mother rating. of course, monetary policy has also played its role in terms of tightening financing conditions and also through indirect effects of through commodity prices. monetary

policy is really done his job in terms of containing and preventing installation expectations from rising and kind of contributing to, to an inflation spiral. so i think that has also been a very positive development and several positive reports does come with a few warnings isn't and one of those from the i m f as in their governments and then send you a function decline, victory over inflation to early. i mean, what's, what's the danger of that? so indeed, we do see the risks at this stage to be profoundly balanced and to be to 2 sided. but i think the same can be said about monetary policy and there is a risk to that. and we talk about this that there is a risk of declaring victory to early the problem with that would be that then the inflation problem would not be solved. a real incomes are not going to go up. and then the longer the, uh, it takes to actually solve the problem then the,

the more pin for it would be to, to do so. so this is why we think it's so important to kind of to finish the job and to bringing depletion back to target. although of course, the risk and the other direction as well. and we've talked about those as well. some of those have been very clear to see over the past couple of years is this frank venting of the global economy effectively. what we seem to be getting is in a china and its allies and the west on the other side of the report from the m. s. i mean, it was against that. so i think the cost of that fragmentation of the people who are participating in that fragmentation was a, it's a small move. what does the i m s, sites that as well we have seen unfortunately arise in trade restriction in the export restrictions that really exploded over the past couple of years. and i think that has been again a sign of the fragmentation which you mentioned. this fragmentation can cover it

can affect the different areas and we've done a lot of research on this. we've shown that it's impact near a negative impact on f. d, i on, on commodities on a lot more broadly on trade in our estimates of the overall impact for uh, for global outputs, show that these numbers going to be fairly large. they can be up to 7 percent of the gdp in the medium term. although of course, there's a lot of uncertainty around that. and what's important to keep in mind is that this is happening in an environment where global growth is a still quite a modest ard mediocre. i would even call it compared to the historical average. so . so fragmentation is really not something which is helping in that respect to expect that governments and, and businesses. and for example, your, your, if in the united states to actually take any a notice of,

of that warning when they've shown that pretty keen to start to, to, to reassure and tom show their supply chains as they've been to, to so we have some, we have seen signs of, of a fragmentation, but at the same time, i think it's fair to say that we've also seen a lot of resilience. so we are hopeful that that of firms, companies and people will adjust and would, i would make the potential costs as, as low as possible if those trends were to, to continue something that looks at my son and tell him very large, i have a 2024, the tensions in the middle east, which a past interest be escalating. and if by the week those that have a potential to undermine the most forecasts of issue. but this is one of the downside risk that we do mentioned in our report. most recently we've seen also the development to and in the red sea, which are so far their global impacts has been limited,

but we've seen increase in shipping costs and such. so if, if those developments were to escalate, this would come with a very unfortunate time for the global economy, because again, it would, it could potentially increase the increased costs. it could increase inflation. and again, put us a little back to talk to a situation where a fighting inflation would be a lot more difficult. so again, we're hoping that these risks would not materialize, but they're certainly on our radar. okay, patrick brooks from international ministry fund. thank you very much. for fielding law, the answer is the conflicts with tim sebastian, the israel. how much small booth briefly to an open quote,

to be the hague product city as welcome to move, including my guess we're stuff about booty and the westbank has the power city and national initiative. we've never been in such a difficult situation. so how will the more and can garza ever be rebuilt? conflict the next on d. w to the point. strong opinions, clear position, international perspective. hundreds of thousands of people have taken to the streets in germany are right. and yet the country's biggest bar right party is seen record numbers of members and border supports to the point we ask in defiance, can turn. can mass protest stop to the point in 6 to minutes on d. w. get ready for an exciting auburn toyota look surprised. hi,

irish. and i am ready to dive into the hands of human to you. have you have a one to delete it from port. click on it. please go to the spot on the on expected side to side. the israel, how boss was moved briefly to an open courtroom with the hague as the international court of justice hud accusations that as well had committed genocide, gaza palestinians, welcome to move, including my guest, who stuff about booty and the west bank who heads the policy, the national initiative was the one from the court immediately to allow me it is the same that there is no suspicion of genocide and to give it as an add on or death to stop. no property, the pro is violent and forgets, all civilians. but he was a special condemnation, israel. so how will the war and how will the hatred of a good faith.