the downgraded germany's economic style as long use on our website, dw, dot com and our social media channels. and told me i had to go to the visa news on the ice, cold b, c. at the end, just to pass the gun any difficult to access an expedition ventures on to places that no one has the why is the i smelled the design of the research in the ice teams,

plastic on march. the gemini is being left behind as the global economy out performs expectations. that's a conclusion you can draw from the international monetary funds latest, well, economic outlook updates. so let's discuss what the i m. s. things 20 valuable has in store with petticoat brooks, deputy director of the i'm us research diploma. thanks a lot for being with us here on the date of your business. if i can just put you on the spot to start with, i'm ask you to sum up in just a sentence. what 2024 is looking like from a global economic perspective. is sure. for the global economy, we see a declining inflation and steady growth, which opened the clear

a path to a softer landing soft atlanta actually. so that's, that's generally good news for the economy as a whole. but let's have a look at how growth is going around the world. let's get a quick look at that. just a quick math that we put together the strongest price that we're seeing in terms of headphones. the math is gonna be coming out of asia with a solid state, goes for in different parts of southeast asia dealing with expects 4.6 percent growth from china. although i think badging would prefer that to be somewhat closer to 5 percent. the 2 point one percent projects over the usa is stronger than previous forecasts, but look it up like if a gemini is lacking well behind us, but in struggle is to get the wheel is going again to get his economy up to speed. just to say we're point 5 percent growth forecast for this year. so if i should call aver brooks, we'll talk through a few of the figures we've just seen that. but let's start with that number for germany. it is out performing in comparison. we will look at economies,

the i m f is now less optimistic for the country for this year. why, as we see the different countries having being effected very differently over the past couple of years by the numerous shocks that have hit. so germany into your area more broadly, has been very much affected by the large energy shock, the terms of trade shock that we have observed then that as far as has affected inflation, is it affected alpha? so we had expected a recovery to start and we're still expecting that in for this year. but compared to all the previous forecasts for germany, we've seen just the more sluggish and a restart the private. uh huh. consumption and sentiment has remained relatively weak. but all of that being said, we do expect the rebound to happen. as inflation comes down, real incomes are going to go up. and the brunt of the monetary type thing that has

happened is, is also going to materialize. so in the 2nd half of the year, we are certainly expecting growth to, to pick up substantially. did you find any evidence of why domestic consumption hadn't reached the so the levels that you were expecting to be reaching by this point? well, i think a lot, again has to do with the log decides of these shots that we've seen. i mean, we have seen, of course energy prices coming down, but the impact of that it's been takes a while to materialize and also again, you know, really incomes have been eroded. so i think it's in the stand about that, that people would be a little bit more cautious when they, when they spend, and also compare to the us. um the, i think there's been less of kind of tapping into excess savings in order to, to fund a private consumption. so that i think is another factor that has made

a difference in, in recent quarters. demons of being a bit more frugal with the nit expected. that's one way to put it. and i'm also on that map, we saw sheets guys in positive southeast asia and in the 56 percent in indonesia or in the philippines. so i think a key role in maintaining global glass. yeah, if we look at the overall growth figure, not the revisions, but the growth, a bulk of that is really driven by, by countries in, in asia. it's india and even china. although the growth rates, they are not as what they used to be in past years, but still very, very robust growth. and as you mentioned, indonesia, philippines and so on. this is a very dynamic part of the world and the underlying trends growth rate. they're just significantly higher than they are in advance to funding these, but also another emerging market street region. okay, well,

let's now look even wide at the picture and talk by the end of the global economy. and all of which of course is contribution to buy these things we've already been talking about. but let's just give us a quick snapshots of the state of the world economy a by the i m s. reckoning. global economic growth is expected to be 3 point one percent this year, which is slightly up on the most previous forecast. i did 2025 is projected to be 3.2 percent extend to as well, just buying in mind that i still found that for the pre fund, demik average for this mid name of 3.8 percent playable grace. anyway, let's bring back. betcha, cory, the brooks from the i m. s. u. now more optimistic for the global for global grace . this is, you know, just a few months ago was changed us and we are a bit more optimistic. we have seen a lot of resilience across the board, and we've seen those in economies like us in china, but also in, in a number of large emerging market economies. and the reasons for this resilience um

have to do with some of the consumer spending, but also government spending as well as on the supply side. we've been surprised by the better than expected labor force participation that we see. another way of putting it that may be the scarring from the pandemic is be less than what we had previously anticipated, which is good news. and this is also why we're seeing these, the kind of different developments on inflation and growth. we have a upward revision for growth, but a downward revision for inflation when we exclude. um, excuse me, examples extreme cases such as surgeon, teen. yeah. and indeed, many central banks do appear to be a winning, that we're on the inflation of war that began joining the pandemic and reach to speak in many places in 2022. so play will headline inflation looks set to fall from us. so i to 6.8 in 2023 to 5.8 this year and to continue to

was target level was in 2025 is following fostering most regions and previously expected and having a less of a impact on employment. then some have said, you kind of just touched on this particular brooks, but i mean what, what's your assessment of the reason for inflation fully not bit faster than have been expected. yes. so the, some of the supply side, the positive supply side developments that i mentioned has to stay the role here. as i said, the, the labor force participation coming down, but also the of the supply disruptions that had been a big issue in the past. all of those have also been on my mother rating. of course, monetary policy has also played its role in terms of tightening financing conditions and also through indirect effects of through commodity prices. monetary policy has really done his job in terms of containing and preventing installation

expectations from rising and kind of contributing to a to an inflation spiral. so i think that has also been a very positive development. and our role positive reports does come with a few warnings and one of those from the i m f, as in the governments and then central function decline, victory over inflation to early i mean was, was the danger of that? so indeed, we do see the risks at this stage to be profoundly balanced and to be to 2 sided. but i think the same can be said about monetary policy and there is a risk for that. and we talk about this that there is a risk of declaring victory to early the problem with that would be that then the inflation problem would not be solved. a real incomes are not going to go off. and then the longer it takes to actually solve the problem, then the, the more pin for it would be to,

to do so. so this is why we think it's so important to kind of, to finish the job and to bring installation back to target. although of course, the risk and the other direction as well, and we've talked about those as well. some of those have been very clear to see over the past couple of years of this frank venting of the global economy effectively. what we seem to be getting is in a china and its allies and the west on the other side of the report from the m. s. i mean, it was against that. so i think the cost of that fragmentation of the people that are participating in that fragmentation was a, it's a small move. what does the m s sites that as well we have seen unfortunately a rise in trade restriction in the export restrictions that really exploded over the past couple of years. and i think that has been again a sign of the fragmentation which you mentioned. this fragmentation can cover can affect different areas and we've done

a lot of research on this. we've shown that it's impact near a negative impact on f. d, i on, on commodities on a lot more broadly on trade in our estimates of the overall impact for uh, for global output show that these numbers going to be fairly large. they can be up to 7 percent of the gdp in the medium term. although of course, there's a lot of uncertainty around that. and what's important to keep in mind is that this is happening in an environment where global growth is a still quite modest ard mediocre. i would even call it compared to the historical average. so. so a fragmentation is really not something which is helping in that respect to expect the governments and, and businesses. and for example, your, your up in the united states to actually take getting a notice of, of that warning windex. and that pretty keen to start to, to,

to reassure until i'm sure that supply chains, the stipend a so we have some, we have seen signs of, of a fragmentation. but at the same time, i think it's fair to say that we've also seen a lot of resilience. so we are hopeful that that of firms, companies and people will adjust and would, i would make the potential costs as, as low as possible if those trends were to, to continue something that looks nice and tell them very large. i have a 2024. the pensions in the middle east, which a pass interest, be escalating and it by the week those that have essential to undermine the volume as forecasts of issue. but this is one of the downside risk that we do mention in our report. most recently we've seen also the developments in, in, in, in the red sea, which are so far their global impact has been limited, but we've seen increase in shipping costs and such. so if,

if those developments were to escalate, this would come with a very unfortunate time for the global economy, because again, it would, it could potentially increase the increased costs. it could increase inflation. and again, put us a little back to talk to a situation where a fighting inflation would be a lot more difficult. so again, we're hoping that these risks would not materialize, but they're certainly on our radar. okay, patrick brooks from international administration. thank you very much for feeling a lot the how your largest phone line retailer is coping with the short of skilled workers. hey,

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