it's time they are peers and rivals with one daring goals to help smart nature, the more likes watching it. on youtube, dw documentary, the donald trump sounds like an extortionist of allies want the protection of the usa. they have to pay. it is a blunt warning by the republican presidential candidates had a taste of what's to come. should he return to the president's russian would be able to do whatever it wants when delinquents nato members, the possibility that paul's at horrifies nato partners. many you countries see trump statements as a wake up, come to become militarily self. sufficient. crane is also planning to challenge restaurants, new military leadership, add a new strategy until the point we ask, coaching and trump, or new access again, state of enterprise. the

welcome to this week to the point time, have you have yes, it's good to have you with us. and these are today's guest, rachel, the 1000 point is a senior fellow at the german marshall fund. move in scotland is a reporter for germany's stand magazine, for which he recently reported from ukraine and nicole on it is a political consultant and security expert. and a senior fellow at the munich security conference is joining us from the city of unit 12. you thank you for joining us today and rachel, i'd like to start with you because here we are talking about donald trump's remarks, even before he's officially the republican candidate. know that let alone a president or um, yeah, president of the united states. why is that? again or at trump is magic. if there's one thing he knows how to do, it's to get everyone's attention. even when he says things that actually aren't

surprising. we know that this is trump's position on nato. we know he's not a fan of nato. he spent his 1st presidency complaining about the members who didn't pay up and in his way of saying, and yet he is able to shock americans on the world by saying, you know what, he thinks in a, in a particularly outragious way. and the world is certainly reacting in eco, i'd like to get to you and munich, a, the munich security conference gathers international leaders in germany to talk about global security issues. as donald trump, one of them is one of the lead us or one of the issues i think that will be debated. um, i would say one of the issues up already for the moment be certainly i think this is a long campaign coming into united states. we're still to ask ourselves the question, do we really want to deal with what donald trump says every day? at the same time, it is true that especially at this munich security conference,

the question, how do you or pm's will continue to support your claim? and what was your opinions to a folder on security to deter russia? the questions will be on the table and they will be in terms of you discussed. you already mentioned a nickel and moments i'd like to ask you of donald trump's efforts to get to the white house this time around are different because of the context of the word and ukraine. how do you think? does that change the stakes of the us election? i think that's it basically means for the europeans. that's uh, we should be, we should hope for the best, but prepare for the worst. so i would say that the until the end of last year, everybody was still hoping that maybe the republicans will choose another candidates for the presidential elections. and the well, the, the help for financial help for ukraine will somehow pass over the last weeks. we

understood that's not the 1st thing. now the seconds happens. so we should prepare for the worst, which means no more financial or military aid from the u. s. for ukraine and a possible president. trump possible president trump, that we don't know what he's going to do with nato. trump. recently drew attention to himself with these statements in which he threatened to hand over delinquents nato members to put in if they failed to meet their budget. it's the largest needle maneuver of all time operation. steadfast defender a name that says it all a 4 month long military exercise to demonstrate the strength of the military alliance. meanwhile, in the usa presidential candidate, donald trump reiterate this low opinion of nato and valves to cut off protection for delinquent allies who don't pay their dues in full no, i would not protect you. in fact,

i would encourage them to do whatever the hell they want. you gotta face. gotta pay your bill trumps publications or anything new. even when he was president, he repeatedly criticized the alliance. but this time, his comments are horrifying. partners in the alliance, nato chief against oldenburg claimed trunk words undermine our security. in europe is worried. this, what's nato's promise of protection applies with that restriction on hold for 11 for all. i see it, i don't see when it comes to the security of the western world, if nothing can replace american power countries, but for obvious reasons, we in europe need to wake up in security in europe even possible without the usa. that's of course, the question of some european leaders as we saw are extremely concerned. well, that's a is that, is that justified? do you think they should be fearing? unimed power rush?

of course, if it's justified, because without the help of the us, if you look at the conflict on the war in the ukraine at, they are totally different perspective. it's obvious that even if the union scales up, it's a help for ukraine. it can't replace the military aid from the u. s. the, that chunk is just too big. so the perspective of this war is totally different without the funding from the us. what about the perspective for the european security as a whole, as well? i think further you can say it security as a whole. uh, that's the same thing. if a trump, basically a trump is not president at the moment, but basically at him saying things like this already undermines. at this point, you're getting security because from the perspective of prussia, it means,

uh that's the article 5 of the nato may be, is not bit serious. effect is not that see us as a team. articles, meaning that if one country hasn't regression, all the other countries will defend it. mitchell as well. let's just say donald trump is not president yet. we've been here before, haven't we feeling what could happen? political leaders insecure about what he's saying, but don't from was already president ones. and i would say most of those scenarios and that didn't really happen. do you think it changes this time around with respect to nato? i think it changes, 1st of all, as your other question, i mean there's already an active or, you know, in on the are getting caught in that so that, that changes the stakes of everything. the 1st time trump was elected, most european countries were playing the waiting game. thought it's just going to be one term we can wait it out in america. well, you know, we gain it senses well. america looks like it's possibly going to elect donald

trump again. meaning, we should have some doubts about the reliability of this us protection guarantee. and 2nd of all, now, europeans, unlike in 2016 understand war in europe, is a real possibility. most europeans, at least as you know, sort of central western europeans didn't believe that war was really guessing that could happen in europe. so the stakes are much higher. and i think the concern is rightfully is rightfully more this time. you also think that the values that natal stands for are not necessarily represented by the us anymore or by donald trump. they're not represented. i mean, uh, trump is still not the majority of americans. uh, according to a pull we did last year, 68 percent of americans still support a strong rule of europe of the united states in europe and security and most europeans. but most americans support nato still. but those numbers are sinking among republicans. and you know, donald trump is,

is absolutely an exception. he does not believe that you do, you know, the us interests are well served by nato, and he didn't in his 1st term either because we've heard some trump's critics, including his own former national security adviser of saying that trump, ultimately, once the us out of nato are these budgetary reasons, just unexcused. we think if the countries paid more, the risk wouldn't be there. as we know from his last term that donald trump things about everything in transactional terms. and we are not very good in that. but maybe we have to become transactional, at least the use of the trump, if you show up the president again, that too. but once you says it's directly against us interest, and i think that should also be an issue in the us. it is a vital interest of the us to have made to, to have partners to have a basis and to work together in the native framework. and this is

a missing link. and it seems to be that in the united states, it's difficult to find the democratic legitimacy for, for, and then security policy in the interest of the united states. but that's not exclusive to the us receive similar development in france. but to be honest, we also see it in germany that it's difficult to find majorities for the right for and then secure with the policy important tries to play on this. and i think the messaging around drums a campaign statement is very important. and unfortunately, it does not sound one of the european side very much as a deterrent to put in. it almost sounds like an invitation, an invitation that, of course, would be extremely dangerous. let's rush just as it's only defending itself that it doesn't have any intention to invade. for example, in a to country. um, you have been in ukraine. you've seen what i originally question means, and what is your take on the intentions there?

well, i'm sure that the putting wants to restore the territory of the soviet union and ukraine is maybe the most important part in this without ukraine. his whole imperial project is not valid. and, and at this point, i would say that the biggest danger actually exists for a country is like a georgia armina, the most dual, which were part of the soviet union. and if he succeeds in ukraine, those countries are the biggest danger. i don't think that's a like the 1st step would be nato countries, because protecting the nato still is a very big risk for russia. so yeah, that's my take on this. however, when we take a look at the us perspective on this,

rachel nichol was telling us that this is not in the interest of the united states to, for example, pull out of nato. but it seems like in the us, at least republicans or followers i've done with them specifically. don't seem to think that would be a big deal if the us pull that up later was the country that much more vulnerable with that happens, i mean, and there's a sort of narrow view of security and a broader view of security. if you take the narrow view of security that really have to do a sort of territorial attacks against the united states or something like that. this is probably the way you know trumping a lot of his voters would think about security. there of course more focused on the southern border and where there are, you know, concerns or things like terrorism. and so to make the case that sort of the war and ukraine or poland has a lot to do with the us security. so it's a more difficult case to me, i would say the majority of the political leaders in the united states still have

this view of allied security and understand the international alliances makes us stronger. but that's a case that's slightly more difficult to make in the public than it used to be, especially among republican voters. but we're not quite there. i mean, trump is dropped is extreme um in his views. but, but the parts that shared across, across the, basically the entire robles and party and also part of the democratic party is, is this part about nato members not paying up? which is to say, this kind of resentment that the us is paying too much or investing too much in europe and security. and that's actually been a long standing critique, especially from republicans, but also from a democratic presidents. the question is, of course, what can be done now, because of course, the opinion has been considering going to board, creating an independent military for a long time. it is also talking about spending more militarily,

is all that viable at the current moment, especially to create, let's say, a unified european military one in europe. i think one starts to wonder how many wake up court calls do. we actually need. there was a movement on this runs in 2014. that was the russian for the invasion into your created in 2022. and now there is this, the projection of a new a, trump presidency. something has been done. and for example, that germany is serious me working towards permanent posture of investment ready brigades and this way. and, you know, i think it's a significant step forward. but i think it's also fair to say that even if trump is expressing things in a totally unacceptable way, there is a high truth at the bottom of it. and to hop truth is that we have not done what we committed ourselves to in nato. and that we always are looking for others to solve our security problems for us and to hold argumentation will be much easier,

regardless of who, who will be president of the united states. is your opinions step up in their own security matters. and that means really digging deep to help your train more and to find in your initiative on the europe in level to support your train, especially in descriptive, prefers also to provide hope to ukrainians. and at the same time, making your up more secure. the eastern strength of nato is at the same time the eastern vote after european union. and i think there's a lot in your opinions could do, instead of just expressing concerns or writing up at all, let us to one another from what you say and you call it all starts in ukraine at this moment. if you're p and nato countries fear they might have to defend themselves alone in the future. that outlook is even more dire for you crate in the us right wing republicans pushed by trump. we simply blocked and age package that included military assistance for ukraine. the consequences are felt on the battlefield and now even triggered a change of leadership bible out immersed lensky to meet the new dye commander in

chief alexander ski. once the head of the ground forces keys, now replacing former commander in chief, felicia sneak, who was beloved by both the people in the army known for his toughness, their sky trained at the military academy in moscow. shoes since our goals remain unchanged to me. and then holding our positions 3 mind holding our territory with exhausting the enemy by inflicting maximum casualties. listen, you will conducting an active defense within your by seizing the initiative. thinking supports it. pretty cool. we already do it on a daily basis. should been set up because of the new army chief brings his own team with him and is relying on a new strategy which includes expanding the use of electronic warfare and more automated weapon systems. drones will compensate for immunization shortages. the additionally troops will be supplied with weapons from abroad

more quickly. the new strategy also allows for a more rapid rotation of soldiers. but the new mobilization laws that would make this possible is still stuck in parliament. do these changes present more risks or opportunities for you create lots? it seems like with trump's remarks, with the territorial gains of russia and ukraine in recent weeks. and of course, with those changes and keeps top positions, things are really not looking good for your claim at the moment. how bad as well. the sphere was a bad, it was bad already an autumn or the beginning of winter. when was clear that the counter offensive basically failed. so people understood that's the perspective is totally unclear of the perspective of this war before people thought, okay, we have to endure a little more and then the war will. and now this is a totally unclear year. and since then over the last weeks,

it gets clear the may well basically from the u. s. a nothing to expect. and this year and also among the ukrainians, these political games and the leadership. and i would say that the 2nd offers, illuminated by who landscape is also part of the political game. it seems not very positive because what do we know about that new strategy that the new commander in chief wants to follow and how dependent is that from us? how on on tactics. um, i think that was one of the main conflicts between the alerts me and the president, whether to for example, hold of the guy as long as possible, administer lost as to the russian side, or to leave of the car. and shop in the front lines, especially with limited resources when it comes to i'm

a nation and other important resources. now that the decision has been made just b as in charles, a troops have been reinforced enough the to be honest with you overall, i'm really trying to point of view, i'm skeptical. and this might the maybe administer lots as to the russian side, but also take very important power away from other segments of the front line and maybe even future offensive power away from ukraine. but it seems that this key is better in translating the political will of the president into a defensive field, into small trusted by the ukranian president. and it all points to a very difficult phase for ukraine to come under foot. that the combined is not changed as one issue, but i think ukraine has to solve mobilization and not deposited on as a hot potato from one to another. i think they have to take responsibility and get mobilization on track if it's necessary for ukraine. and the other element is the

adjusters in the mobilization. i know this is hard for everybody who was able to to be to avoid being mobilized at the moment. but i think this is necessary also for the in a piece of ukrainian society so that there is no impression that some people fighting and others who can avoid being proud of to 5. but let's be very honest either the next months will be very difficult for ukraine on the petals. you know, especially in these coming back to the question of financing and weapons. do you think you cream can manage, having west support from the us because it was said for a long time that it was not possible without the us. can europe deal with that alone? it's not so much about money. it is about money to and to the psalms, a very important will also for the media debate about this. but in the end, it's about production capabilities. and we're in europe where i'm not able to

raise our production capabilities in time. they might kick in later some steps i've taken no. so i think we should consider also using the european piece specific to money or other you are paying money to buy from us companies, if necessary. if the congress is not giving to funds and what is important is that the company abilities are arriving with these ukrainians. and especially in the gap between now and at least the presidential elections in the us in the to provide also some way forward for the agreements. i think that's crucial, and i think is european still when it comes to from each of these spain, they have multiple abilities and they shall do more what somebody has to lead the process, bring everybody to get her, put something on the table, then say look, that's what we are doing now, let's make a new effort please everybody join in, but i'm missing executive debt element. maybe something will happen here at noon security conference that starts tomorrow. leading the process is an important

keywords there. rachel, critics of joe biden have said that the west lacks a clear strategy on what it wants regarding russia in general. do you agree with that, or i think joe biden has a very clear strategy of what he would want. the problem as we're seeing is that the president's abilities are limited right by the, as been pushing for a long time for this funding package to support ukraine. and he can make the difference, right. the republicans can stop at. so i think i think biden's strategy is pretty clear, but what happens with the u. s. support is very much an open question. i think you have battling visions, battling priorities and up until the election is going to be very difficult. what about the relation between uh donald trump and vladimir putin. and how does that play into the equation? because again, this was something that was speculated a lot about in the last term of donald trump. and it was not like we could say that

the us became a strong ally of brush or anything like it. or these fears were justified this time around. i don't know if they're more justified, but i think they're still justified. i mean, uh on, on 2 accounts to the 1st account is that, and, you know, trump has something like a grudge against 0 certain european countries. you know, those who don't carry their weight and his view and his relationship with a lot of important as a bit unclear. um, and it's not always clear that he has a sort of long term strategy, a visa vi put. and so i think there is plenty of room to be concerned on both accounts for europe. so yeah, i want to ask you if the prospective new crane is the same, but maybe i may have the, as a historian, it was a dream already of the soviet union for the russians to split europe and the u. s. and so in this sense of letting me put in the election of donald trump is

a very nice the present. although he says he doesn't want that. he just said that he was july. and besides a lot of things. yeah. the only one of those and i also advise uh, yeah, uh okay. uh, would you like me nickel that i put in is succeeding in that goal if you will. well, 1st of all, on what 14 says, i think he is a k to be person. and he never actually says what the things and he never does what he says. so i would not subscribe to his idea that he supports 5. i think the opposite is true, but when it comes to sickness to 14, i think it's very important for the europeans now to do everything necessary to signal support and look. if you attack us, whatever you will do, you will lose us. and if the europeans are saying, oh, it's very difficult without the united states, and please, please us, help us because we cannot do it alone. that this might be

a big temptation football team to try things. so it's very important, i think also to get the communication around this right? and some conversations, for example, about nuclear determines should not be made. look toral campaign considerations. what are your pin problem? and i think they should be discussed behind the scenes between the, the nato partners, including from spend then you okay. i think that's also a very necessary element right now. what i like just to exit, exercising. i think this is a good signal to the russian side. with the exercises that are going on right now, i think we need more. that's all we have time for in this discussion. thank you so much talk 3 of you for joining us. and of course we'll see how that plays around. we cannot predict the future, but we certainly can try to see scenarios. so thank you to all of you for that. thank you for watching, of course. and remember that you can always watch our shows and comments on them on our youtube channel. as always, stats don't even use, i'm for you to get us on behalf of the entire team. thank you for joining us. so

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