rapidly shine increase in the ice fields unknown plastic. on the 2 years after russia invaded ukraine, its troops are surging on multiple fronts, while a dwindling supply of western weapons and munitions leaves you crane out gun. countries on nato's eastern flags are stepping up their warnings that a victorious russia might come for them next. while the death of russian opposition waiter alex, in nevada, they served as a reminder that vladimir put in those few scruples. will the wes tier to call to step up the fight? today we're asking rushes war on ukraine. no strategy in the west. the

welcome to to the point. it is a pleasure to greet our guest, sabina as the reports for the german broadcaster, deutschland funk. she's in eastern europe expert and has just published a book on what will become of russia. it's also a pleasure to welcome raphael, los he's a policy fellow at the european council on foreign relations is work focuses on security and defense in the euro, atlantic area, and my esteemed colleague roman gunter, and co also joins us. he's a news editor on t w's, europe and russia, desk, and frequently reports from and on ukraine. so i'd like to start out by asking all of you to share your assessment of the situation in ukraine. 2 years after russia launched the attack room. and what's the perspective in ukraine at this moment as

well, the situation is very, very critical. i would say we cannot say often enough. so a people were not expecting in ukraine. the west, especially the united states, will just stop supplying weapons. in particular, i see a lot of shells which are very important and this will adjust that this moment um they will, they will probably expecting this to happen after the presidential elections in united states. so they are not prepared for this. and europe, the european union is not fulfilling on its promise to deliver 1000000 until there are shelves to ukraine by march. so those 2 developments are very, very dangerous and we see the results. the results. are you grand losing territory again? and exactly, i wanted to ask you about that. the town of, of disco. so it just in the past weeks and that had

been very important for ukraine. ukraine held it for 10 years following russians, evasion of john boss, and 2014. what's that done tomorrow in ukraine's as well? um, of course it's a hard blow for your grand because as you've just mentioned of div, which is a small town very close to the nascar. now what was the statistic point a ukrainians have built very, very in sophisticated facilities the and were able to hold it for for any other 10 years. things 2014, when the russian under covered and very just invasion, started in don't boss. but the ukrainians were just out numbered and out. gone today are enough to you've got and they, and losing that strategic strategic town. ukraine now lose as the opportunity to advance further, and it opens up to them maybe to, to direction advance. feel that some of the, to the west. and it's

a good question. now we don't know the answer yet. how good are the pregnancy buchanan defense facilities behind of to you've got because the impression is, and this is also something that people in ukraine discussed or are discussing. now, if your brain had enough time to build facilities, the 2nd of the 3rd line of defense behind of div car, because the opinion presents savanski has only ordered 2 to dig in, as he said. and to build a new concrete facilities in awesome. so somebody that let me come to you, i know you've just come back from a key of you're also an expert on russia. so share your perspective if you would, on both sides. and particularly with regard to russia, it's mobilizing fresh troops, it's manufacturing new weapons. it's pushing now on multiple fronts of is it more resilient than many of us had thought it seems to be bought. uh the last

us in us do you have car also very high. uh, what do you heard um, 16000 soldiers on that. and uh, one guy, so quote, military broke on a road about this and suddenly he died in the 2nd. and this was in a week. and obviously it's not a fact which places depending and, and president, 14 that somebody is. so open a speak. so open the about losses about numbers, but on the other hand, i, i would say of to you've got is very serious this right. it's of dollars. but they're on success as well for ukrainian military for the army, especially when it comes to crimea. when you look at the sol called a fleet to of

a restaurant in a sea of us to poor, for example, the most is also very high. they lost a tour of the whole fleet and that means that the ukrainians, it's more in the shadow on the sides, but we shouldn't forget the crime. yeah. is the starting point of very, very of, of, of a lot of attacks of ukraine cities and in these over the whole country roughly. oh, during last year's grinding war of attrition, a word we were using a lot not on here on this program but elsewhere was stalemate. is it one still or are things now tilting in rushes favor? i think the changes are happening on the ground. does that mean are pointed to the situation and the blacks, the, the russian black c feed being lottery, decimated and unable to, you know, threaten ukraine's going next board? so that's a, for example, if things are happening in the air as well, we see

a precarious situation for you cleaning out for us to f. 16 deliveries from the west should happen soon, but these things sort of happened early as well. we're seeing intense efforts, bye ukraine's wisdom support us to get more a defense of missiles to ukraine to protect cities, but also to protect the troops on the front lines. just the fact that we don't see changes and the sort of line of contact between the 2 ground for us. this doesn't mean that we do have a stand made at the strategic level. and both sides, i think, are working hard to, to identify ways to get out of this. they are made on the ground and to exploit opportunities as they arise out of technology increase more likely to be, to take the advantage. to a large extent, i think that depends on the west on us, on decisions that we make in the coming days and weeks and months. we've seen now a couple of the western countries signing a security agreement with ukraine out of that could emerge and new momentum for

a defense deliveries to ukraine. but it's a political decision ultimately. and the fact that in germany and the bonus tag, just this moment, we're still wrangling around the question of whether or not to deliver taurus, cruise missiles, for example, is one that is extremely frustrating, not only from an analytical perspective, but shortly, also for ukrainians on the ground on the front line. let's drill a little bit deeper now on what the defeat at of these co tells us about the larger picture we've been calling it a pivotal battle for months here on to the point. and as we've heard it has fallen . what does that tell us about ukraine's situation? exactly 2 years after proteins launched his attack as the last images of ukrainian soldiers, enough deeds costs, at least for now, they had to abandon it to avoid being surrounded by russian troops. for russia, the capture of the almost entirely destroyed town is an important symbol. it

represents its greatest military success in almost one year. the last was when the ukrainian city of buck moved fell. the decisive factor here, russian air superiority, plus a large contingent of tanks, artillery and soldiers. beautiful, this is an obvious success. i congratulate you. it must continue to the right side of concentrated or it is now an extremely difficult situation at several parts of the front line. exactly where russian troops had concentrated maximum reserve, if they are taking advantage of delays and aid to ukraine. and this is a very sensitive matter. there are tillery shortages, there is a need for frontline air defense and for a longer range of our weapons and offers boy instead of a 1000000 artillery shells. so landscape troops will initially only receive around half from e u countries and in the us, republicans are blocking urgently needed funds. after the fall above discard, the president visited the front near the strategically important city of coupons.

there could soon be another russian breakthrough here. 2 years after russia's invasion, how long can you crane hold out? and let me put that question directly to roman or so the answer is simple. as long as you can can hold out for a long time, but the west must deliver at the moment to the west is not getting enough weapons until the ukrainians have to retreat. and if this tendency wouldn't, will not change in the coming weeks and months, then we can expect more traits from ukrainian troops, though you cannot just throw in more and more. so we'll just, ukraine doesn't have enough someone just, this is a huge problem. the zation, a new bill is not way new, great empowerment. the but the presence of lensky is very cautious. and with that, because the more than ukraine is also slightly changing. but there are not enough

men. so, um, it is a very tense situation for ukraine is about to answer your question once again. and it's, it's, it's for the west to deliver weapons without the less than the funds for granting inclined will not be able to hold territory. raphael, you mentioned, of course, uh, the same point in the report that we just saw. a president soleski russo landscape refers directly to, to ukraine's need for front line air defenses. and indeed, the russians took of these gun, not least because they had the aerial advantage. where are those gonna come from? who, who are the key partners who could provide what you create needs right now, that is a good question and their defense, i think from the draft spect of consist of, of 2 parts. one is ground based there, defends and we see some capabilities having been supplied to you trying to be trained dose of premier, the task with protecting civilian infrastructure and population centers. what your

credit is lacking as mobile ad defends on the front lines and, and it's, you know, get parts to dump, sort of anti aircraft tangs that are very effective that were provided by germany early on in the war. but they're too few one number and the 2nd leg of your credit or defends will be the 16 that us with and allowing new claims as false um to replace the losses and make a craft that they were using since the war began. but it is not at the scale or at the speed of relevance to the degree that ukraine's fall should be able to push back russia's f was from using these kinds of fly bombs that happened pummeling of these gun and other places on the front line. what is required is a more modern version of this, and the more i'm sustained effort at an increasing the scale of west and support and, and the out of funds where i'm both on the ground but also in the year. so the western support at the moment is not increasing. sabina, it is decreasing, or at least suspended, particularly in the us presidents savanski fluid in germany recently to make his

case. and in fact, germany has now become the 2nd biggest donor of military 8. and as a major donor of humanitarian aid as well, can germany make up for the gaps that the u. s. is leaving currently? oh, i think it's difficult to but what in difference between the beginning of civil war and now is that the will to feel at least a pump the of this gap. and what i saw when i was in key of was how frightening it this when you know that the systems on to able to shut down or drones or rockets and to sit in the cellar and to wait and not to know whether it's over or not. and this interrupt every day and several times. and this was really in

the capital of the queen and then other cities. of course, the, the very, very feeling of war, the war isn't over what, what some might think and in europe in germany as well. we are in the middle of this war and to this war has at least sweep benefits and one better for you to put foot. so quote is valid as a field, the concept see liverts in, in different cities which disrupt the everyday life. very much of people and that we have to consider. and when we count on give a good numbers, how many rockets or drones are shut down or bad or shut down? this is really frightening because if it goes our fuel and fewer and this speaks of the lack of munition and this is really serious,

let me ask you briefly if you would, you said, certainly germany has heard the call. interestingly enough, a recent survey shows that german public opinion is changing for a long time. there was a lag between what the leadership wanted to do allow schultz with his famous speech that site vendor right after the russian invasion, where he said, we have to step up, public opinion long lagging behind. but it now looks to be that the majority of german say, the situation is serious. we must act. uh, this is essentially a wake up call. we'll that change how rapidly the government response. and i think this is really a move we see. and this is very important because it's of the hesitation of the government of the lead us of, of different punches in the coalition. they responded every time on a certain pacific, a pet sophistic knew it was in the members. and now i would say it isn't over,

but it's not a strong editor used to be. and now the government isn't it for you. then if it has been bought, be you are in the middle of all you just at the beginning of the discussion. uh, let's do a spend money for a full backgrounds for your fame, for own purpose or for social needs and, and coming this is a to, to discuss the question whether it's necessary to think about a draft to, to a strength and openness where at least the needs of 20000 soldiers and a re, this question is really very sensitive and i would think that it's a long way to go. roman public opinion, of course, is shifting not only in germany,

but also in the united states. we're seeing particularly among republican voters and there is a presidential election coming up in the us. so their opinion is very important. a rising on willingness to support ukraine saying that us money should be spent at home to secure the u. s. southern border and in the face of that, and with republican front runner, donald trump saying that he could and the ukraine war in a day, presumably by negotiating with vladimir putin. would you say that presidents lensky is coming under increasing pressure to go to the negotiation table as well? of course this pressure has been growing for some time now. and you're absolutely right. i was at the munich security conference just a few days ago. and i spoke to the western intellectual and,

and it looks like even christophe, who just throws an oscar about that, saying that now wars are sometimes decided to develop books and they'll just on the battlefield. and he said that the more just changing, just if you had mentioned in the united states in europe, i knew crime himself, was there on no more ukrainians and thinking pauses to be that both negotiations, negotiations in general. there are still about 90 percent of ukrainians who are not ready to see the territories. but what the cost of said, i think is very important. he says, we might, might suggest to a point to interest in, in, in, in the coming months this year. probably after presidential elections in russia when rush, i wouldn't be ready to negotiate some kind of a cease fire. and he says that that is only, we're the only makes sense to talk about it if, if uh, if nato would be ready to, to accept you crying on a fast track. so that you kind would have security guarantees. otherwise, there is

a great danger that the russian, i would seek ukraine to become some kind of a at this time. so no man's land, you know, no rule of law, nothing. this is, this is what motors him and not content or disagree. very interesting, very briefly, if you would raphael of negotiations, even the chairman of the munich security conference prior to the conference, talked about the need for a negotiated solution. is this the time? i mean, if you look at the sort of universe of cases of wars around the world, 12 times most was in to negotiate settlement. but the single sheet and settlements usually reflect the balance of forces on the ground. and i think no side at the moment, faces and incentives to really make a compromises. i don't quite agree with roman's point on the, on the russian presidential election. i think the west presidential election is probably the more decisive factor in both sides. attitudes, 20 goal. she ations, but there's efforts, of course, by all sides,

among the question of support us of ukraine, ukraine's government incorporation with the swiss government organizing a peace conference, various delegations from african states from brazil, from china, trying to bring the sides together. these having produced anything meaningful yet. and so i think over the course of the year, but probably be on the next year. what was the movement on that front? as western politicians were debating in unit one piece of news temporarily to silence the noisy hall, the death of opposition leader. i'll explain the volume the and his widow's defiance call for justice served as a reminder of put into perfidy. the consequences of western equivocation, or after alexia of all of these death in a penal colony, russian police are taking action against people who want to pay tribute to the pretend. critics, even if just with flowers mountain,

it never seems that it is now worse than in stallings times. dvd mean, it's almost too much them. so it is important to live in a democratic state in the 21st century and not in a dictatorship. what is this is what pollutants russia looks like. here he has shown what soldiers from the forces fighting and ukraine. he's using all his power to ensure support for his vision of a great russian empire defending itself against the hostile west. whoever criticizes the war risks, the rest, whoever like bodies, not the listing has the slightest chance of success. and the so called presidential election is not allowed to stand. and now nobody thinks that his widow has accused wooten of murdering her husband and announced that you are able to continue the work of alex say not only continue to fight for a country, let me just ask you to support me on this. dice it out. those some really valid these legacy and pollutants. power will the resistance and your

sabina eulley and the volume they received the news of her husband's death at the munich security conference, a number of experts have suggested that that was no coincidence. you've called russia a mafia state. would you say that this killing was calculated the way a mafia don might do it to achieve a purpose? i'm sure it was calculated and this speaks about putting citizen uh towards the upper to us easy opposition. and this task for the opposition to fight this regime is super sure, which it's, it's uh, i would say it's unbelievable and it's on for, for both. if so will, because this is really a mafia state of what to what is not the state and mafia side by side. but it's

11 they are the, the old friends of 14 the don't the power and the government, the most important a and yeah. what, what, what to say the, the most important parts of it, a economy. what, when it comes to the private armies, everything is in their hand and to fight such a very strong opponent is almost impossible. roman. what would you say that the timing and nature of nevada, these depths tell us about put into frame of mind and about put into intentions as well. the timing was definitely to signal to the west before the munich security conference. look, you wanna negotiate with me. we can negotiate about the ukranian defeat. that's all

. so you want to show strength. i can show you my strength. so i think it was a very clear message and i think that was to receive the message. but what we have to wait for for more, more concrete steps as a response, and we'll just sanctions. but the best response, and this is what was the modern munich, what being to give more weapons to your crime. and as we have talking about the war, we've just had some remarks by the phone martian because that the medium and visit said that the restaurant wants key of the of granting and capital. and it's a good one. so i guess a very important lexi port. i still helped by ukraine. i think the signals coming from moscow are very clear they will, will continue. so the west needs to bear that in mind. and raphael, that is exactly what the nato member countries on the eastern flank of the alliance are saying, most especially developed countries, one of whose foreign ministers,

lens bag, as recently said, russians are all in. and if you creating falls, putting will not stop, he is coming for us. would you agree and has the west got that message? does it have a strategy? i think what was slowly moving towards getting it and, and drawing the right conclusions from this challenge that, that, that impact is presenting to us that has a monitor dimension, certainly, and nato is working on that. but it also has a political dimensional reaffirming level of democracy in europe. and as an economic that mention about, we're making supply chains more resilient about looking also to china at the going challenge that russia and china present to us europeans and the brought up political best. sabina, the clock is ticking. has the message gotten through one word? i hope so. a thank you so much to all of you for being with us. thank you very much to you, roman for joining us virtually. and thanks to all of our viewers. so you said the

answers were kind of success with sarah kelly's welcome to peace in pieces, the future of israel and palestinian relations town hall. this is a special edition of conflict. stone coming to you from the munich security conference with the palestinian prime minister. thank you for having me. and then we will open up to a high level panel. joining us here on the stage conflict, the in 15 minutes on the w. 2, the points. strong opinions, clear positions, international perspective. 2 years after russia invaded ukraine,

troops are searching while a dwindling supply of western weapons leaves ukraine out. god, does the west have a strategy to find out on to the point to the pulling in 90 minutes on d w. the words people have to say, that's why we listen. because every weekend on d, w. 2 kids at tech is changing. 6 years ago. he said he can't get any was, but it does. guardians of truth. this time, excel gen,

this turned into our meets the voices of the 3 turkey officer. as the ad one has his 3 into its own. i knew the police would search my house. courageous people are trying to stem of the turkish governments. all sort of tammy cools, also did some kids and whatnot, but really it's a crime is addressed and the path of trying to take responsibility for his action. what about freedom of surprise and freedom of expression? what about parliamentary democracy? to the situation is very serious. cut in those rights has not only weapon is off and the guardian of trees stocks much seconds on d. w. the

you are watching data we use live from building a know to taurus gem and will make is void against sanding the long range. me solve badly, wanted by your crime, bob haldeman. terry, instead of just the government to supply extra and military, i to kids. also coming up a massive fire in gulf to residential buildings in east and spine firefighters in the console. city of valencia rice to rescue people trapped binding and then i will bring you the lightest in a moment. the.