the signage, research and the i c classic of the w 2 years after russia invaded ukraine, its troops are surging on multiple fronts, while a dwindling supply of western weapons and munitions leaves ukraine, outgoing countries on nato's eastern flags are stepping up their warnings that a victorious russia might come for them next, while the desk of russian opposition waiter alex in nevada. they served as a reminder that vladimir put in those few scruples will the west here to call to step up the fight. today we're asking rushes war on ukraine. no strategy in the west. the

welcome to to the point. it is a pleasure to greet our guest, sabina as the reports for the german broadcaster, deutschland folk. she's in eastern europe expert and has just published a book on what will become of russia. it's also a pleasure to welcome raphael las. he's a policy fellow at the european council on foreign relations. his work focuses on security and defense in the euro, atlantic area, and my esteemed colleague roman gunter, and co also joins us. he's a news editor on t w's, europe and russia, desk, and frequently reports from and on ukraine. so i'd like to start out by asking all of you to share your assessment of the situation in ukraine 2 years after russia launched the attack roman. what's the perspective in ukraine at this moment as

well? the situation is very, very critical. i would say we cannot say often enough. so a people were not expecting in ukraine. the west, especially the united states, will just stop supplying weapons. in particular, i see a lot of shelves which are very important and this will adjust that this moment um they will, they will probably expecting this to happen after the presidential elections in united states. so they are not prepared for this. and europe, the european union is not fulfilling on its promise to deliver 1000000 a 2 literal shells to ukraine by march. so those 2 developments are very, very dangerous and we see the results. the results. are you grand losing territory again? and exactly, i wanted to ask you about that. the town of, of disco. so it just in the past weeks and that had

been very important for ukraine. ukraine held it for 10 years following russians, evasion of john boss in 2014. what's that done tomorrow in ukraine as well? um, of course is a hard blow for ukraine because as you've just mentioned, of div, which is a small town very close to the nascar. now what was the statistic point uh, ukrainians uh, have built very, very in sophisticated facilities the and were able to hold it for, for any other 10 years. things 2014, when the russian under covered invasion, invasion started in don't boss. but the, the ukrainians were just outnumbered and outgunned, today are enough to you've got and they losing that strategic strategic town. ukraine now lose as the opportunity to advance further. and it opens up to them maybe to, to direction advance. felt that some of the to the west, and it's

a good question. no, we don't know the answer yet. how good are the opinions buchanan defense facilities behind of to you've got because the impression is, and this is also something that people in ukraine discussed or are discussing. now, if your brain had enough time to build facilities, the 2nd of the 3rd line of defense behind of div, because the opinion presents savanski has only ordered 2 to dig in, as he said, and to build a new concrete facilities in awesome. so let me come to you, i know you've just come back from a key of you're also an expert on russia. so share your perspective if you would, on both sides. and particularly with regard to russia, it's mobilizing fresh troops, it's manufacturing new weapons. it's pushing now on multiple fronts of is it more resilient than many of us had thought it seems to be bought. uh the last

us in us do you have car also very high. uh, what do you heard um, 16000 soldiers on that. and uh, one guy, so quote, military broker wrote about this and suddenly he died. the 2nd and this was in week and obviously it's not a fact which places depending and, and president, 14 that somebody is. so open a speak. so open the about losses about numbers, but on the other hand, i, i would say of to you've got is very serious. that's right. it's a dollars. but they're on success as well for ukrainian military for the army, especially when it comes to crimea. when you look at the soul called

a fleet to of a restaurant in a sea of us to poor, for example, the most is also very high. they lost a 3rd of the whole fleet, and that means that the ukrainians, it's more in the shower. the will on the sides, but we shouldn't forget the crime. yeah. is the starting point of very, very of, of, of a lot of attacks of ukraine cities and in these the over the whole country is roughly oh, during last year's grinding war of attrition. a word we were using a lot not on here on this program, but elsewhere was stalemate. is it one still or are things now tilting in russia's favor? i think changes are happening on the ground. does that mean are pointed to the situation and the blacks, the, the russian black c feed being lottery, decimated and unable to, you know, threaten ukraine's going next board? so that's a, for example, if things are happening in the air as well, we see

a precarious situation for you cleaning out for us to f. 16 deliveries from the west should happen soon, but these things sort of happened early as well. we're seeing intense efforts, bye ukraine's wisdom support us to get more a defense of missiles to ukraine to protect cities, but also to protect the troops on the front lines. just the fact that we don't see changes and the sort of line of contact between the 2 ground for us. this doesn't mean that we do have a stand made at the strategic level and both sides. i think of working hard to, to identify ways to get out of this day and made on the ground and to exploit opportunities as they arise out of technology increase more likely to be a to take the advantage. to a large extent, i think that depends on the west on us, on decisions that we make in the coming days and weeks and months. we've seen now a couple of the western countries signing a security agreement with ukraine out of that could emerge and new momentum for

a defense deliveries to ukraine. but it's a political decision ultimately. and the fact that in germany and the bonus tag, just this moment, we're still wrangling around the question of whether or not to deliver taurus, cruise missiles, for example, is one that is extremely frustrating, not only from an analytical perspective, but shortly, also for ukrainians on the ground on the frontline. let's drill a little bit deeper now on what the defeat at of these con tells us about the larger picture we've been calling it a pivotal battle for months here on to the point. and as we've heard it has fallen . what does that tell us about ukraine's situation? exactly 2 years after proteins launched his attack as the last images of ukrainian soldiers, enough deeds costs, at least for now, they had to abandon it to avoid being surrounded by russian troops. for russia, the capture of the almost entirely destroyed town is an important symbol. it

represents its greatest military success in almost one year. the last was when the ukrainian city of buck moved fell. the decisive factor here, russian air superiority, plus a large contingent of tanks, artillery and soldiers. beautiful, this is an obvious success. i congratulate you. it must continue to the right side of concentrated or it is now an extremely difficult situation at several parts of the front line. exactly where russian troops have concentrated maximum reserve, if they are taking advantage of delays and aid to ukraine. and this is a very sensitive matter. there are tillery shortages, there is a need for frontline air defense and for a longer range of our weapons and offers boy instead of a 1000000 artillery shells. so landscapes troops will initially only receive around half from e u countries, and in the us, republicans are blocking urgently needed funds. after the fall above discard, the president visited the front near the strategically important city of coupons,

there could soon be another russian breakthrough here. 2 years after russia's invasion, how long can you crane hold out? and let me put that question directly to roman or so the answer is simple. as long as you can can hold out for a long time, but the west must deliver at the moment to the west is not getting enough weapons until the ukrainians have to retreat. and if this tendency wouldn't, will not change in the coming weeks and months, then we can expect more traits from ukrainian troops, though you cannot just throw in more and more. so we'll just, ukraine doesn't have enough someone just, this is a huge problem and we'll go as ation a new bill is now a new grain empowerment. and, but the presence of lensky is very cautious. and with that, because the morning ukraine is also slightly changing. but there are not enough men,

so it is a very tense situation for ukrainians. but to answer your question once again, and it's it's, it's for the west to deliver weapons without the less than the funds for granting inclined will not be able to hold territory. raphael, you mentioned, of course, the same point in the report that we just saw. a president soleski russo landscape refers directly to, to ukraine's need for front line air defenses. and indeed, the russians took of, they've got not least because they had the aerial advantage squared. that is going to come from who, who are the key partners who could provide what your grade needs right now, that is a good question um and their defense, i think from your draft spect of consist of, of 2 parts. one is ground based there, defends and we see some capabilities having been supplied to you crime and be crammed. also primarily i'm task with protecting civilian infrastructure and

population centers. what you're kind of lacking as mobile ad defends on the front lines and, and it's, you know, get parts to dump, sort of anti aircraft tangs that are very effective that were provided by germany early on in the war. but they're too few in number. and the 2nd leg of your credit or defense will be the 16 that us we and allowing new claims and for us to replace the losses and make across that they were using since the war began. but it is not at the scale or at the speed of relevance to the degree that ukraine's air force you to be able to push back rushes air force from using these kinds of flight bombs that happen pummeling of these gun and other places on the front line what is required as a more modern version of this and the more sustained effort at an increasing the scale of the western support and, and the out of funds were i'm both on the ground but also in the air. so the western support at the moment is not increasing, so be now it is decreasing or at least suspended, particularly in the us presidents savanski fluid in germany recently to make his

case. and in fact, germany has now become the 2nd biggest donor of military 8. and as a major donor of humanitarian aid, as well can germany make up for the gaps that the u. s. is leaving currently? so i think it's difficult to, but what in difference between the beginning of the war and now is that there is a will to feel at least a pop the at this gap. and would i saw when i was in key of was how frightening it this when you know that the systems on to able to shut down or drones or rockets and to sit in the cellar and to wait and not to know whether it's over or not. and this interrupt every day and several times. and this was really in

the capital of the cream and then other cities, of course, the, the very, very feeling of war, the war isn't over what, what some might think and in europe in germany as well. we are in the middle of this war and this war has at least 3 benefits and one but the few of the but so quote is valid as a field. the concept see liverts in, in different cities which disrupt the everyday life. very much of people and that fee have to consider and when we count on give a good numbers, how many rockets or drones are shut down or bad or shut down? this is really frightening because if he goes our fuel and fewer and this speaks of the lack of munition and this is really serious,

let me ask you briefly if you would. you said, certainly germany has heard the call. interestingly enough, a recent survey shows that german public opinion is changing. for a long time, there was a lie between what the leadership wanted to do or last schultz with his famous speech that site vendor right after the russian invasion. where said, we have to step up, public opinion long lagging behind, but it now looks to be that the majority of german se, the situation is serious. we must act. uh, this is essentially a wake up call. we'll that change how rapidly the government respond or not. i think this is really a move we see. and this is very important because it's of the hesitation of the government, of the leaders of different parties in the coalition. they responded every time on a certain pacific, a pet sophistic knew it was in the members. and now i would say it isn't over,

but it's not as strong as it used to be. and now the government isn't it for you. then if it has been bought, be, are in the middle of all, maybe just at the beginning of the discussion with us to spend money for a full weapons, for your faithful own purpose or for social needs. and, and coming with this uh to, to discuss the question whether it's necessary to think about the draft to, to uh, strength and openness where uh, at least the needs of 20000 soldiers and a re, this question is really very sensitive. and i would think that it's a long way to go. so roman public opinion, of course,

is shifting not only in germany, but also in the united states. we're seeing particularly among republican voters. and there is a presidential election coming up in the us. so their opinion is very important. a rising on willingness to support ukraine saying that us money should be spent at home to secure the us southern border. and in the face of that, and with republican front runner, donald trump saying that he could and the ukraine war in a day, presumably by negotiating with vladimir putin. would you say that presidents lensky is coming under increasing pressure to go to the negotiation table as well? of course this pressure has been growing for some time now. and you're absolutely right. i was at the munich security conference just a few days ago. and i spoke to the western intellectual and analytic,

yvonne christophe, who just throws an oscar about that, saying that now wars are sometimes decided to develop books and they'll just on the battlefield. and he said that the more just changing, just if, as you've mentioned in the united states in europe, i knew crime himself was, there are no more ukrainians. and thinking positively that both negotiations negotiations in general, there are still about 90 percent of ukrainians who are not ready to see territories . but what the cost of said, i think is very important. he says, we might, might suggest to a point to interest in, in, in, in the coming months this year, probably after presidential elections in russia, wind rush. i wouldn't be ready to negotiate some kind of a cease fire. and he says that that is only would only make sense to talk about it if, if uh, if nato would be ready to, to accept you crying on

a fast track. so that you kind would have security guarantees. otherwise, there is a great danger that the russian, i would seek ukraine to become some kind of a at this time. so no man's land, you know, a no rule of law and nothing. this is, this is what motors him and not content or disagree. very interesting, very briefly, if you would raphael of negotiations, even the chairman of the munich security conference prior to the conference, talked about the need for a negotiated solution. is this the time? i mean, if you look at the sort of universe of cases of wars around the world, 12 times most was in the negotiated settlement. but the single sheet and settlements usually reflect the balance of forces on the ground. and i think no side at the moment, faces and incentives to really make a compromises. i don't quite agree with roman's pond on the, on the russian presidential election. i think the us presidential election has probably the more decisive factor in both sides. attitudes, 20 goal. she ations, but there's efforts, of course, by all sides,

and among the quotation of supporters of ukraine, ukraine's government incorporation with the swiss government organizing a peace conference, various delegations from african states, from brazil, from china, trying to bring the sides together. these having produced anything meaningful yet. and so i think over the course of the year, but probably be on the next year. what was the movement on that front? as western politicians were debating in munich, one piece of news temporarily to silence the noisy hall, the depths of opposition liter. i'll explain the volume the and his widow's defiant call for justice served as a reminder of putting perfidy and the consequences of western equivocation. after like saying of all of these death in a penal colony, russian police are taking action against people who want to pay tribute to the pretend. critics, even if just with flowers. well,

it never seems that it is now worse than installing this time stupid, even though it's almost too much them. so it is important to live in a democratic state in the 21st century and not in a dictatorship. what is this is what pollutants russia looks like. here he has shown what soldiers from the forces fighting a new crane. he's using all his power to ensure support for his vision of a great russian empire defending itself against the hostile west. whoever criticizes the war risks, the rest, whoever like bodies, not the listing has the slightest chance of success. and the so called presidential election is not allowed to stand. and now nobody thinks that his widow has accused wooten of murdering her husband and announced that you're able to continue the work of alex say not only continue to fight for our country, let me just ask you to support me on this. dice it out. those some really develop these legacy and pollutants. power will the resistance and your

sabina eulley and the volume they received the news of her husband's death at the munich security conference, a number of experts have suggested that that was no coincidence. you've called russia a mafia state. would you say that this killing was calculated the way a mafia don might do it to achieve a purpose? or i'm, i'm sure it was calculated and this speaks about putting some distance to over to over to us, easy opposition. and this task for the position to find this where she is silver sheet, which it's, it's, uh, i would say it's unbelievable and it's i'm for, for both if and so will. because this is really a mafia state of what, what is not the state and mafia side by side,

but it's 11 they are the, the old friends of 14, the don't the power and the government, the most important a and you know what to what to say the, the most important parts of a economy. what, when it comes to the private armies, everything is in their hand and to fight such a very strong opponent. it's almost impossible. roman. what would you say that the timing and nature of nevada, these deaths tell us about put into the frame of mind and about pretend intentions as well? the timing was definitely to signal to the west before the munich security conference. look, you wanna negotiate with me. we can negotiate about the ukranian defeat. that's all

. so you want to show strength. i can show you my strength. so i think it was a very clear message and i think that was to receive the message. but what we have to wait for for more, more concrete steps as a response and we'll just sanctions. but the best response of this is, what was the morning munich would be to give more weapons through your crime. and as we have talking about the war, we've just had some remarks by the former action says that the medium and very different said that the restaurant wants key if they were crying and capital. and so that is one. so i guess a very important lexi port i still held by ukraine. i think the signals coming from moscow are very clear they will, will continue. so the west needs to bear that in mind. and raphael, that is exactly what the nato member countries on the eastern flank of the alliance are saying, most especially the baltic country is one of whose foreign ministers,

lens bag. as recently said, russians are all in. and if you create and falls protein will not stop, he is coming for us. would you agree and has the west got that message? does it have a strategy? i think what was slowly moving towards getting it and, and drawing the right conclusions from this challenge that, that, that impact is presenting to us that has a miniature dimension, certainly, and nato is working on that. but it also has a political dimensional reaffirming level of democracy in europe. and as an economic that i mentioned about with making supply chains more resilient about looking also to china at the going challenge that russia and china present to us europeans and the brought up political best. sabina, the clock is ticking. has the message gotten through one word? i hope so, and thank you so much to all of you for being with us. thank you very much. uh to you roman for joining us virtually. and thanks to all of our viewers. so you said the

people that they kicked in the door at 6 o'clock, my child was 3 minutes to take mommy. you'll be set to my son, your mom. you're not coming back over the ukrainian city of coupon schools under russian occupation for 6 months. everyone can endure the fear we felt every day when russia come a d, w. m tension on the on and my on stuff, you know, sula is frustrated by the arrival of increasing numbers of refugees,

the dream of europe, and end up here. the french have, as these territory is simply too small, and the pressure for migration to big, like many inhabitants, nephews neglected by the central government in far away europe. focused on us. in 90 minutes on d w, the this shadows these costs and video shed light on the donkey street. devastating colonial har is infected by germany across and he employed schools, farms and destroyed lights. what is the legacy of this wide spread races, depression, today? history? we need to talk about here, the stories,

shadows of german colonialism. jackie is changing. 6 years ago. we said he can't get any was to, but it does guardians of truth. this time, excel gen, this turned into our meets the voices of a free turkey alter as the ad one had to flee into exile. i knew the police would search my house. courageous people are trying to stem the turkish governments and sort of tammy and cools. of some kids, but really it's a crime is addressed and the path of trying to teach this phone civility for his action. what about freedom of to print and freedom of expression? got ease of truth, dots march, 2nd on d, w. the

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