the global service as a whole lot of climate problems. if it turns out on the topics breast of those channels, we've got new videos every friday tried to plan. it's a it took a while, but this week sweet and got the green light on. it's been to join nato following finland succession last year. it is, nato is now firmly anchored in the high, nor will that strength and the alliance for risk provoking finland's neighbor restaurant. meanwhile, new trouble is brewing in south eastern europe as the break away republic of trans mystery out just south of ukraine asked, was russia for protection as the challenge as multiply nato members send diverging signals in the direction of moscow? with frances president, sparking pushed back by refusing to rule out sending ground troops to ukraine,

our topic this week, and sweden and finland in nato. a strategic defeats for russia, the hello and welcome to the port. it's great to have you with us, our guests this week, alexandra fund, them and heads d. w. as brussels bureau covers nato and security policy and has also reported from russia. and it's a pleasure to welcome daniel who can do it. she is a senior fellow at the german marshall fund with a focus on central europe and colonel of, of congress to joins us drum virtually from vienna. she's a senior advisor at the austrian institute for europe and security policy. so let me begin, if i may, uh, with you, alexandra, to formerly newt sole nations,

join the western alliance. how momentous is this shift? does it significantly strengthen data? the answer is yes, definitely having finland and so sweet and joint data is a big win for the alliance. when we talk about a sweden, they have a very highly capable armed forces and a geographic situation in proof of nato's. a portia in the baltic sea and of course in addition, you have to say that sweden has already been integrated to some extent into natal structures. they have been invited to meetings, they have participated in exercises and know that they are able to join the alliance is also showing the kremlin. that's the only finland. one thing to be in the club was not an isolated incidents. so this is a reaction, a to rush us aggression against ukraine. down here when finland in sweden 1st

applied to join. some analysts said that their membership would turn the baltic sea into a nato lake. would you agree with that? and what do you see as the geo political implications of the expansion? yeah, the geo political implication is that nato is not on. frank is significantly strengthened . and especially the organizations ability to uh, to reinforce its positions within the bath to countries which additionally used to be to the most exposed for posts of the organization. since they joined nato. and i think the positions are significantly strengthened, significantly reinforced. and against the background, the post chair against russia to undertake any thought experiments to the challenge in april positions in, in the region the, the messages that it can be potentially a very bad idea. so politics and data like about succeed nato lake. so definitely

in board time, del peroration on capability. also the russian baltic fleets to conduct a new verse will be significantly limited. this was done at the same time, we have the us equivocating about further support for ukraine and presumed republican presidential candidate donald trump casting doubt on whether the us would even defend all of its fellow nato allies. under those circumstances, doesn't that dyed lute the effects of this expansion by undermining trust in the notion of collective defense as a whole i guess maybe the think your question is called correct. i'm should not forget that sweden and finland joined nature. also, there could also have unblocked on or relied on the you defense commitments which are enshrined in the you create a but the big difference between the you and nature is us. the u. s. provides

a nokia umbrella, or at least located guarantees, ridges in portland for finland and sweden and all that does, of course, since russia is the 2nd one of the 2 big nuclear countries undergo. and this comes as a contradiction as a, on the one side of the line or later was us going to use on these other side to us . at least the trunk has cost out where the, this guarantee is really, really be complied with. and this makes sure makes clear why no to is now in a difficult position. in addition to the question why the us congress cannot deliver weapons and financial means to order in which is also associated already and probably the elections in november in the us. thanks very much and we will come back to the stability of nato and also the

nuclear issues in a moment. but 1st, i'd like to take a closer look at what the accession of spend, gland, and sweet, sweet, and data is 31st, and 32nd members means for the alliance and the region. the strengthening nato. $20000.00 sweeter service men and women on our part of it to the country is giving up a long tradition for most secure seat in the nato alliance. somebody loves reading is leaving 200 years of neutrality i'm mandatory norm alignment behind. this is a big step spirit. the swedish military is considered efficient, and its navy is equipped with states of the oss equipments. the country has little sir reintroduced compulsory military service and could quickly mobilize soldiers in the event of war. russia's war of aggression against ukraine changed everything fulfilled and done. sweep. those countries had already applied to join nato in may,

2022, a quick process for 50 bucks. in the case of sweden, kentucky, and hungry had reservations. new arms deals for both countries were effects and guessing them to agree. which means nato is moving closer to a russian officer expanding east. it is now also expanding north pendant has been a member since 2023. and now sweden is joining as the 32nd member states. bucks. how strong is the new nature really? alexander, you mentioned briefly in your 1st remarks, what sweden brings to the alliance. say a little more about that if you would please, how much these 2 countries add to nato's defensive capability, but also where you think the challenges might lie in integrating them and really ensuring a cohesive whole? well,

i think what was the big problem was not to have sweden in the alliance right now, because we know that nature is over holding their defense plans. and sweden has been an important country in that. so it was hurting the alliance knots to have sweden as a member. and it's gonna help to implement those new defense plans, knowing that sweden is now in the lions. and as i mentioned, they have a highly, highly capable armed forces. unlike some other members of nato who are joining the alliance after the end of the cold war and state will improve the situation in the bolts baltic sea. we already talked about that. and the voltage states can feel mice much say for a now, because a sweden can help the to make sure that they can be there because there can be c in for reinforcements. so if needed, if there is anything, if russia would risk any miscalculation until now,

the baltic states would needs to be provided with weapons and armed forces with very, very vulnerable border crossing between poland and lisa when yeah. and now the situation, the whole situation has a change. so i think there is no real challenge to integrate sweden. but what is of it's problematic if the whole process that it took so long. and that we saw that some, a member of the alliance were upon thing up. so concerned about the russian sweats . and exactly, that is what i would like to talk to daniel about to you are from hungary and hungry. in fact, was one of the nato members that held this up for so very long. in fact, it is sometimes said that hungry and turkey were both doing nato's doing a put in his bidding by delaying us, especially the swedish accession for so long. what kind of signal does that send

about alliance unity or disunity? yes, um, i think it sent a main signal and it was widely used and exploited also by the russian propaganda and dependents media that there is this, you need to uh, the about speed, especially speed and succession to, to make to the vet or that argument was used to spread also division among the best and elias i am not so certain, but the demeanor re, uh various arguments could be very, they'll use, that's the russian domestic propaganda. so it was important for the kremlin, for domestic political reason that this happened. and why the, in the case of 13, i think we can be more robust sourcing. that's the power of calculations, both based really on the regime interest. and in the case of, of hungry it will be use that it was partially a split teaching service to restaurant the country has. i'm going to back to are all for a policy. it tries to have close cordial ties to strategic contenders of its own

best underlying system, russia and in to china. and the supposed parts of this power calculation. why prime minister or been delayed this rectification. 21 most. all in the and his agreement was essentially purchased through a quid pro quo. oh, what exactly do mr or bon and a so mr adder one get out of all of this. so i think the 2 cases are absolutely different. uh, for 13, it was really crucial defense deal which allowed practically the upgrade angle to existing gap, 16 fleets to the, to the newest level, which was important because the countries access to the, to the 5th generation of sort a 5 fighters was rejected by both of us administration and, and to us congress in the case of hungary, no similar, definitely can steal, took place. so practically what we, so the purchasing of 4

o 8 generation griffin fighters and the extension of the service package be to use is a face safety measure. the prime minister or bank can also claim in the public that there was something enough change for the hon. get reimbursed if occasion in reality, simply the pressure of us too high and on gary and positioning was not some able anymore. but if i may just one sentence, but it's also showing us that for those members, domestic politics, one more, more important and then making sure that the alliance is being strengthened in the process. and this is very telling of it already bits damage to nature. i would say, and in many ways, that's the exact thing that you could say about the us as well. it's very much about domestic politics, both going if i can come to you to talk about another dispute among nato's leading members at the moment. that is also stirred up doubts about the solidity of the western alliance. when french president, my com said that he could not rule out sending ground troops to ukraine. basically,

chancellor schultz pushed back immediately and contradicted him in a very public rebuke. what do you think that means and how damaging is it for nato? let me say 1st that there was a red line for a long time, agreed with in nature. that metal member states would not become parties to the conflict directly intervening. that means it was a red line to propose sending drunk troops to grow into fight directory russia because it could lead to an expansion or ext escalation loves, of war. and europe could find itself, you know, terrible to go out because we speak about for nuclear power i said would be involved in such kind of thing. so that was astonishing that my comment this proposal and about is even more. that's the only thing is that obviously behind closed doors, it was key already in the preceding meeting that this proposal would not find any

support by the majority of your natural steps. nevertheless, my call went to the microphone afterwards into public announced that he could not exclude this option. so this sent and of course the response. but there was a sense of the signal of this unity around the unit 2. so in so far, one could even say it didn't solve the purpose. of course i understand that the funds wanted to increase its own roll. it was in the defensive position, particularly after the unix security conference of the but even criticized problems a lot to get about as much as durham and it, and elect behind, etc. but they, i mean, as presidents or from see themselves, they have to have a leading role and take back the initiative. and i think that was also one of the reasons why my call did it, but he did it not very skillfully. so he know,

finally this group sent the signal of this unity and regrettably the other, the decision that was made that to that is that using the defense facility means was a tour of by and for example, in the nation abroad, and not just in europe or in france, that was then not recognized under public so much so that was the signal of unity, but obviously it was most skillful. it or daniel and the dentist of luke on talked about seizing the initiative. chancellor schultz has often been accused of doing the opposite of lagging behind in terms of leadership and of essentially always staying to the back even though the german public now seems to support a more pro active position visa view russia. and in regard to support for ukraine,

do we see here a fundamental weakening of the french german motor within the alliance due also to german inertia? i think we see the coming in the german french tandem now for more than 2 years. and they'll be usually this can be traced back to the lack of joint commission, and they'll be usually in some way to the lack of cad. we get what you might call the euro atlantis and its ation scandinavia. do you think protein will have reckoned with those consequences and how would you expect him to respond going forward? well, i think that of course, the kremlin and put in himself a, so what was coming and, and, and, and off to film and succession. we also so kind of them trying to there were reports about hybrid the tax. they were a swift, an ink to increase the number of troops on the border to finland. but basically, i mean, this is made. so i don't think that a 14 which risk,

anything knowing what kind of response this any attempt would be a match with. so i don't expect any straightforward reaction, but of course for sure we will see may be, you know, hybrid attacks, of a lot of propaganda, probably trying to play down the fact that's sweden now also is joining nato. and what i learned from my time covering, put in is that you should never expect something that it's like clear and you would do it because they always would come up with something that is different and, and maybe also surprising. speaking of something different, let's stay with the topic of the russian response and to direct our attention to south eastern europe, where a break away republics request for moscow's protection. looked like a play book for another special russian military operation. that has been an

obvious increase in the russian soldiers at the boulders and in terms mr. yeah, it's unclear how many there are. they all the symbol of who was in charge in terms of history on hooton's, russian. the nice, the river separates the republic of most of us from the break away region on the eastern bank pro russian transmits trio with its 360000 inhabitants. the region broke away from the republic of mould about at the beginning of the 1990s. geo, strategically, the country is location out of focal points between the republic of most of which is pro european and ukraine. now the pro russian room is not sufficiently asking russia for protection for mold about an initial reaction from moscow shows the protection of the citizens of transmit street is the priority we'll trans industry ever come the next domino intrusions, expansion plans. let me put that question straight away to you of,

of cotton post as a military officer. and as a security advisor, you have considerable experience also in eastern europe and the congress's, including in georgia, where a similar frozen conflict has been going on for quite a long time. do you think trends in history a is the next domino to i think uh, we have seen uh tensions and plus tons of history are coming up and uh then again uh, flowing down uh several times. this is the 30th or conflict. i would say a post, so good conflict, right. was not clear from the beginning of the month of uh, with uh, the drawing back to romania as it was historically the case between the 1st and 2nd world war. and then these, slavic populations would not be in a position to do that. and a wanted to maybe very good on the,

on independence of john russell. this is something we have discussed for us. it was the, the organization for security and co, uh, security corporation and go to, was involved the russians that were, i had them on board for peacekeeping operations will also ask you this draw a heavy bathroom which i did also have been scanning verification contribution in the up to 2003. since then we have around 1500 russian and local troops in this area. there's light equipment, so venue a look realistically. also at the geography of this conflict. i could not imagine that major operations could start from there. but in particular, since the russian forces are totally absolved in particular, land false is physical training in the war. and even the withdrawal forces phone calling and go out from the board to a bonus. and trump, by the way, it was from the very long border to philip. so the question that i showed in an

address. yeah. yeah, in a nutshell, yeah. could this lead to add excise? you know, much of russell has, has no means at the moment to do that. they would of course, be happy when the tensions could be increased at this point about a real, a mandatory side. i cannot see for the moment, but the intentions were rush. thank you. very much, let me pass that straight on to daniel. a small dover itself seems to downplay the transmit stand request saying it was a propaganda move, which is the west to now, how should the west respond? i think the west response should be mostly led to by the expectations of the point here, because ultimately it's about the super entity into retail, real, the integrity of, of the country. but however, if you take a look what could be the real strategic intentions of the kremlin to be taught with this move? this is obviously him during all the of us european accession process and,

and also to influence the presidential elections, which will be upcoming during the spring and then disregard it. i think the european responses should also be those 2 fields being committed to the accession, accession altima except the accession process of molto. and it was to try to ensure that the presidential elections in the spring and their integrity remain intact. and that's the most part because it's possible i'm just going in under the circumstances. alexandra, what's the response in brussels to all of this? surely the timing of this move is not entirely coincidental. now it's not. and we just mentioned the election and, and russia, and that is for sure. motivation for put into a the path so puts you in a teased opportunity to present himself a strong leader and to signal to his own people. listen, it's not only the russian speakers and ukraine that we are ready and we are protecting already in their own. that's their narrative. but he can now points to

translates yeah, i'm say we are ready and determined to help them to. and that, of course, is helping him probably in the election campaign to present himself as a strong leader and this thing that for brussels. it will be important to 1st understand that this is precious attempt to him for him. all of us accession to you, european union, but it's also shouldn't be a motivation for brussels to speed up the process, not to wait for the european election. and it's also taking place this summer. and that's to uh to try to speed up the process and to offer moldova as well as you create a real perspective in the european union in the future. both going very briefly, if you would, the baltic republics in particular, lafayette and a stone. you also have very significant shares of russian origin populations. could

this done boss trends and history a play book? one day be applied also to these not nato member states. to answer the stress, it really depends on the question how this or a warren or credit union will turn off to be a. finally, it would also depend on the cushion holiday. estonia particularly loved to be on what a complet comply was. minority rights and according to the it was done the us here . i don't see any major interest of the book. it was the russian speaking population concerned. russia for the moment. i think the vengeance cannot be competitors. okay. and, and then we come back to the question of courses, which i don't see off the other way to look for in ridge. i've solved a lot of the russian forces and will probably take a long time onto rush. i could have it again, station, significant for cuz we have to finish the quality border and reveals the weather up

to then. europe is in a position to have some stability. the agreement is russia. thank you very much. my phone goes to thank you. i said to alexandra and daniels for being with us and to all of our viewers. thank you for joining the,

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