the volume is the ice melting more rapidly in the ice fields and passages the it took a while, but this week sweet and got the green light on. it's been to join nato following finland succession. last year it is, nato is now firmly anchored in the high, nor will that strengthen the alliance or risk provoking finland's neighbour, russia. meanwhile, new trouble is brewing in southeastern europe. as the break away republic of trans mystery out just south of ukraine asked, was russia for protection as the challenge as multiply nato members send diverging signals in the direction of moscow? with frances president,

sparking pushed back by refusing to rule out sending ground troops to ukraine, our topic this week, and sweden and finland in nato. a strategic defeats for russia, the hello and welcome to to the point. it's great to have you with us, our guests. this week, alexandra fund, them and heads d. w as brussels bureau covers nato and security policy and has also reported from russia. and it's a pleasure to welcome daniel who can do it. she is a senior fellow at the german marshall fund with a focus on central europe and colonel of, of congress to joins us from virtually, from vienna. she's a senior advisor at the austrian institute for europe and security policy.

so let me begin. if i may, with you, alexandra to formerly neutral nations, join the western alliance. how momentous is this shift? does it significantly strengthen data? the answer is yes, definitely having finland and so sweet and joint data is a big win for the alliance. when we talk about a sweden, they have a very highly capable armed forces and a geographic situation in proof of nato's, a portia in the baltic sea. and of course, in addition, you have to say that sweden has already been integrated to some extent into natal structures. they have been invited to meetings, they have participated in exercises and know that they are able to join the alliance is also showing the kremlin. that's the only finland. one thing to be in the clap was not an isolated incidents. so this is a reaction

a to russian submission against ukraine. daniel, when finland in sweden 1st applied to join. some analysts said that their membership would turn the baltic sea into a nato lake. would you agree with that? and what do you see as the geo political implications of the expansion? you know, the geo political implication is that nato is not on. frank is significantly strengthened and especially the organizations ability to, to uh, to reinforce its positions within the bath to countries which additionally used to be to the most exposed for posts of the organization. since they joined nato. and i think the positions are significantly strengthened, significantly, reinforced, and against the background the push to are against russia to undertake any thought experiments to the challenge in april positions in, in the region the, the messages that it can be potentially a very bad idea. so politics and data like bout succeed nato lake,

so definitely in board time, del peroration on capability. also the russian baltic fleets to conduct maneuvers will be significantly limited. sports going at the same time, we have the us equivocating about further support for ukraine and presumed republican presidential candidate donald trump casting doubt on whether the us would even defend all of its fellow nato allies. under those circumstances doesn't that dyed leute the effects of this expansion by undermining trust in the notion of collective defense as a whole i just made in the i think your question is called correct. i'm should not forget that sweden and finland joined nature. also that could also have unblocked on or relied on the you defense commitments which are enshrined in the

you create a but the big difference between the, you and nature is us. the u. s. provides a nuclear umbrella, or at least look, you're going to use the ridges in portland for finland and sweden and all that does, of course, since russia is the 2nd one of the 2 big nuclear countries undergo. and this comes as a contradiction as a, on the one side of the line or later was us going to use on these other side to us . at least trump has cost out where the, this guarantee is really, really be complied with. and this makes sure it makes clear why no 2 is now in a difficult position. in addition to the question why the us congress cannot deliver weapons and financial means to order in which is also associated or in probably the elections in november in the us. thanks very much and

we will come back to the stability of nato and also the nuclear issues in a moment. but 1st i'd like to take a closer look at what the accession of finland and suite of sweden. data is 31st and 32nd members means for the alliance and the region. the strengthening nato. $20000.00 sweeter service men and women on our part of it to the country is giving up a long tradition for most secure seat in the nato alliance. somebody loves reading is leaving 200 years of neutrality. i'm industry norm alignment behind. this is a big steps. the swedish military is considered efficient and its navy is equipped with states of the oss equipments. the country has little sir reintroduced compulsory military service and could quickly mobilize soldiers in the event of war

. russia's war of aggression against ukraine changed everything fulfilled and done . sweet. those countries had already applied to join nato in may, 2022, a quick process fulfillment butts. in the case of sweden, kentucky, and hungry had reservations. new alms deals for both countries were effects and guessing them to agree. which means nato is moving closer to a russian officer expanding east. it is now also expanding north pendant has been a member since 2023. and now sweden is joining us. the 32nd member stage box. how strong is the new nature really? alexander, you mentioned briefly in your 1st remarks of what sweden brings to the alliance, say a little more about that if you would please, how much these 2 countries add to nato's defensive capability. but also where you think the challenges might lie in integrating them. and really ensuring

a cohesive whole well, i think what was the big problem was not to have sweden in the alliance right now, because we know that nature is over holding their defense plans. and sweden has been an important country in that. so it was hurting the alliance notes to have sweden as a member, and it's gonna help to implement those new defense plans, knowing that sweden is now in the lions. and as i mentioned, they have a highly, highly capable armed forces. unlike some other members of nato who are joining the alliance after the end of the cold war and state will improve the situation in the bolts baltic sea. we already talked about that. and the voltage states can feel mice much say for a now, because a sweden can help us to, to make sure that they can be there because there can be c in for reinforcements. so if needed, if there is anything,

if russia would risk any miscalculation until now, the baltic states would needs to be provided with weapons and armed forces with very, very vulnerable border crossing between poland and lisa when yeah. and now the situation, the whole situation has a change. so i think there is no real challenge to integrate sweden. but what is of it's problematic if the whole process that it took so long. and that we saw that some, a member of the alliance were a crime scene up. so concerned about the russian sweats. and exactly, that is what i would like to talk to daniel about to you are from hungary and hungry. in fact, was one of the nato members that held this up for so very long. in fact, it is sometimes said that hungry and turkey were both doing nato's doing a put in his bidding it by delaying us,

especially the swedish accession for so long. what kind of signal does that send about alliance unity or disunity? yes, um, i think it send to main signal and it was widely used and exploited also by the russian propaganda and dependents. media that there is this, you need to uh about speed, especially speed and succession to, to make, to the vet or that argument was used to spread also division among the best and elias. i am not so certain, but the domino re, various arguments could be very, they'll use that. the russian domestic propaganda. so it was important for the kremlin, for domestic political reason that this happened. and why in the case of 13, i think we can be more robust sourcing. that's the power of calculations both based really on the regime interest. and in the case of, of hungry it will be use that the suppose partial, the a split dietrich service,

the restaurant, the country has. i'm with the vector all for a policy, it's prize to have close cordial ties to strategic contender. so if its own best underlying system, russia and, and to china, and this 1st part of this power calculation. why prime minister or been delayed this rectification? 21 most all in the and his agreement was essentially purchased through a quid pro quo. oh, what exactly do mr or bon and a so mr outer one get out of all of this. so i think the 2 cases are absolutely different. uh, for 13, it was really crucial defense deal which allowed practically to upgrade ingles to existing gap, 16 fleets to the, to the newest level, which was important because the country's access to the, to the 5th generation of sort a 5 fighters was rejected by both of us administration and, and to us congress, in the case of hungary no similar death defense deal took place. so practically

what we, so the purchasing of 4 o 8 generation griffin fighters and the extension of the service package be to use is a face safety measure. the prime minister, our bank can also claim in the public that there was something enough change for the hon. get reimbursed if occasion in reality, simply the pressure of us too high and on gary and positioning was not some able anymore. but if i may just one sentence, but it's also showing us that for those members, domestic politics, one more, more important and then making sure that the alliance is being strengthened in the process. and this is very telling of it already bits damage to natal would say, and in many ways that's the exact thing that you could say about the us as well. it's very much about domestic politics of both going. if i can come to you to talk about another dispute among nato's leading members at the moment. that is also stirred up doubts about the solidity of the western alliance. when french president,

my com said that he could not rule out sending ground troops to ukraine. basically, chancellor schultz pushed back immediately and contradicted him in a very public rebuke. what do you think that means and how damaging is it for nato? let me say 1st that there was a red line for a long time, agreed with in nature that natural member states would not become parties because it conflict directly into the and that means it was a red line to propose sending drunk troops to grow into fight directory russia because it could lead to an expansion or ext escalation loads of war and europe could find itself, you know, terrible to go up because we speak about for nuclear power us, it would be involved in such kind of thing. so that was astonishing that my comment this proposal and about is even more,

it's the only thing is that obviously behind draws dollars, it was key already in the preceding meeting. that this proposal would not find any support by the majority of your natural steps. nothing of this my call went to the microphone afterwards into public announced that he could not exclude this option. so this sent and of course the response, but there was a sense of the signal of this unity around the unit 2. so in so far, one could even say it didn't solve the purpose. of course, i understand that the funds wanted to increase its own roll. it was in the defensive position, particularly after the unix security conference of the year. but even criticized across the board as much as durham and it, and elect behind, etc. but they mean, as presidents upfront see themselves, they have to have a leading role and take back the initiative. and i think that was also one of the

reasons why my call did it, but he did it not very skillfully. so he know, finally this group sent the signal up. there's only 2 ends, regrettably, the other, the decision that was made, that the, that is the using the defense facility means was a tour of by, for example, initially abroad and not just in europe or in trust. that was then not recognized under public so much. so that was a signal of unity, but obviously it was not skillfully done to daniel and the dentist of luke on talked about seizing the initiative. chancellor schultz has often been accused of doing the opposite of lagging behind in terms of leadership and of essentially always staying to the back even though the german public now seems to support a more pro active position visa view russia. and in regard to support for ukraine,

do we see here a fundamental weakening of the french german motor within the alliance due also to german inertia? i think we see be coming in the german french tandem now for more than 2 years. and they'll be usually, this can be traced back to the lack of joint commission. and they'll be usually in some way to the lack of chemistry between the leadership of the, of the 2 countries. it's the tragedy actually of, of the german strategic thinking, guns, ukraine policy, that's the country is performing so high, practically is the 2nd 2nd most important that's on the very partner of ukraine. meanwhile, it's kind of explain the situation and turn it into an enhanced leadership position at, at your a pm level. obviously, that's also

a sign of to be coming drawn on. so if you do position within the european union, but i think this didn't stop it, but this announcement of presidents on chrome, we see this clip which is in this european entry and for a time us, alexandra. but meanwhile, let's talk about pretends reaction to all of this. his chief idealogue had described russia's goal in general as the finland, this ation of europe. instead, we get what you might call the euro atlantis and aid station of scandinavia. do you think protein will have reckoned with those consequences and how would you expect him to respond going forward? well, i think that of course, the kremlin and putting himself space, so what was coming and, and, and, and off to simon succession. we also so kind of them trying to there were reports about higher at the tax and they were threatening to increase the number of troops on the border to finland. but basically, i mean this is made so i don't think that's a 14 which risk,

anything knowing what kind of response this any attempt would be a match with. so i don't expect any straightforward reaction, but of course for sure we will see may be, you know, hybrid attacks, of a lot of propaganda. probably trying to play down the fact that's sweden now also is joining nato. and what i learned from my time covering, put in is that you should never expect something that it's like clear and you would do it because they always would come up with something that is different and, and maybe also surprising. speaking of something different, let's stay with the topic of the russian response and to direct our attention to south eastern europe, where a break away republics request for moscow's protection. looked like a playbook for another special russian military operation. that has been an

obvious increase in the russian soldiers at the boulders and in terms mr. yeah, it's unclear how many there are. they all the symbol of who was in charge in terms of history of hooton's russian. the nice, the river separates the republic of most of us from the breakaway region on the eastern bank for russian trends. mr. young with its 360000 inhabitants, the region broke away from the republic of mould about at the beginning of the 1990s. geo, strategically, the country is location out of focal points between the republic of mold of which is pro european and ukraine. now the pro russian root is not sufficiently all skiing. russia for protection for mold about an initial reaction for most sco shows, the protection of the citizens of transmit street is the priority. will trans industry ever come the next domino intrusions, expansion plans?

let me put that question straight away to you of, of cotton post as a military officer. and as a security advisor, you have considerable experience also in eastern europe and the congress's, including in georgia, where a similar frozen conflict has been going on for quite a long time. do you think trends in history a is the next domino to i think uh, we have seen uh tensions and plus tons of history are coming up and uh then again uh, flowing down uh several times. this is the 30th or conflict. i would say a post, so good conflict, right. was not clear from the beginning of the month of uh, with uh, the drawing back to romania as it was historically the case between the 1st and 2nd world war. and then these, slavic populations would not be in a position to do that. and a wanted to maybe very good on the,

on independence of john russell. this is something we have discussed for us. it was the, the organization for security and co 6 were to go brush and then go to, was involved. the russians that, uh, i had them on board for a peacekeeping. operations will also ask you a booster or heavy weaponry of which i did also been scanning verification contribution in the up to 2003. since then we have around 1500 russian and local troops in this area. there's light equipment, so venue a look realistically. also at the geography of this conflict. i could not imagine that major operations could start from there. but in particular, since the russian forces are totally absolved in particular, land false is physical training in the war and even the withdrew forces, phone calling and go out from the boy to a bonus. and from, by the way, it was from the very long border to philip. so the question i showed in an address

. yeah. yeah, in a nutshell, yeah. could this lead to alex actually not sure. russell has, has no means at the moment to do that. they would of course, be happy when the tensions could be increased at this point. about a real, a military side. i cannot see for the moment, but the intentions were rush. thank you very much. let me pass that straight on to daniel a small dover itself seems to downplay the trends and a stand request thing. it was a propaganda move, which is the west to now, how should the west respond? i think the west response should be mostly allowed to buy the expectations of money to buy here, because ultimately it's about the super entity into retail, real, the integrity of, of the country. but however, if you take a look what could be the real strategic intentions of the kremlin to be with this move? this is obviously him during most of us european accession process and,

and also to influence the presidential elections, which will be upcoming during the spring. and then disregard it. i think the european responses should also be those 2 fields being committed to the accession, accession altima except the accession process of moved over. and it was to try to ensure that the presidential elections in the spring and their integrity remain intact. and that's the most part because it's possible i'm just going in under the circumstances. alexandra, what's the response in brussels to all of this? surely the timing of this move is not entirely coincidental. now it's not. and we just mentioned the election and, and russia, and that is for sure. motivation for put into a the past. so it puts you in a teased opportunity to present himself a strong leader and to signal to his own people. listen, it's not only the russian speakers and ukraine that we are ready and we are protecting already in their own. that's their narrative. but he can now points to

translates yeah, i'm say we are ready and determined to help them to. and that, of course, is helping him probably in the election campaign to present himself as a strong leader and this thing that for brussels. it will be important to 1st understand that this is precious attempt to him for him. all of us accession to you, european union, but it's also shouldn't be a motivation for brussels to speed up the process, not to wait for the european election. and it's also taking place this summer. and that's to uh to try to speed up the process and to offer moldova as well as you create a real perspective in the european union in the future. both going very briefly, if you would, the baltic republics in particular, lafayette and a stone. you also have very significant shares of russian origin populations. could

this done boss trends and history a play book? one day be applied also to these not nato member states. to answer stress. it really depends on the question. how this or a warren or credit union will turn off to be a finally, it would also depend on the christian holiday. estonia particularly loved to be on what a company that comply was the 2 rights and according to the it was done, the us here. i don't see any major interest of the book. it was also the russian speaking population concerned, russia for the moment. i think the vengeance cannot be competitors. okay. and, and then they come back to the question of courses, which i don't see off the other way to look for in ridge. i've solved a lot of the russian forces. it will probably take a long time onto rush. i could have, again stationed significant for cuz we have to finish the call to the border and we really see the up to then. europe is in

a position to have some stability. the agreement is russia. thank you very much. my phone goes to thank you. i said to alexandra and daniels for being with us and to all of our viewers. thank you for joining the

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