they can afford to expand the blog unlike look in those names for me and the rest of the team. and thanks for watching. and by the way, my name is the calls back. say, thank you so much for joining in. welcome to don't hold bad. a lot of people do that. it's all about saying it loud as you guys would have being nosy bay, like get everyone talking to me. you're healthy award winning called called the called back one of over 200 lucky it's across poland meant to shield the country from ukrainian products. farmers here on

a collision course with the expansion of the european union. about this the because the idea new membership offers economic opportunities to millions. we know exactly what they want. we want to be part of you. more and more people in new states are in favor of letting new countries join the club. and you officially have some pledging to make it happen. completing our union is the call of history. it is the natural horizon. i'll say your opinion, but the countries in line to enter are poorer than those already in the us. and some europeans worry that enlargement will straighten their livelihoods. we must probably go for the bankruptcy. in this episode, we will look at what it means for us citizens to join one of the world's biggest economy. i think that that would be that and give us some more the legitimacy. we

will assess the cost of enlarging where we're talking peanuts, frankly speaking, and we will ask him to you a forge to grow. that's all coming up on business beyond for more than a decade, the new seems like a close club with a line of members waiting to get in turnkey became an u membership candidate in 1999 in 2018. that's succession process was suspended. but that's a story for another episode. in 2005 north macedonia, joined the que montenegro, follow to 2010 serbia 2012, and now pena in 2014. for a country to join the u, it must feel, feel certain criteria like being a democracy, respecting the rule of law and human rights, and having a functioning market economy for the past 20 years and reforms of the candidates have been slow and the use montrose was n t enlargement. this is the former president of the european commission. john

showed younger van this is for miss jones, impala minutes, months out. this bill that's kind of knowing these, these are given budget by touch to doing this. a few of them when russia invaded ukraine in 2022, all that changed the war catapulted you expansion to the top of the agenda. in 2004, poland farmers joined the ranks of the biggest food producers in the u. u crane enters the union. that role is under threats because you cranes, industrial farms, dwarf europe, and ones lucas chest as a grain and pick farmer. i asked him what would happen if you train were to join the you any time soon? we must probably go for the bankruptcy, i think. and because if we would be easily filled up or uh, all of the much deeper products from the okay. what's the health of you innovation

funds. lucas, invest in new technology for us. produce your up in your younger we have incredibly cost on that as a for production. we've had follow up some documentation tracking, probing for $3.00 side uh services. we could fight the system to measure every move month till february peak or every upholstery. if you crane were to join the european union, it would likely get the biggest chunk of its agriculture budget. at the same time, farms like this one and poland would lose out on subsidies. but it's not just subsidies. lucas worries about he thinks, opening the use borders to ukraine before it meets europe in food production standards. sell play. like we have the football match at the okay. uh like one thing is not getting the read the costs or yellow card. cs for, for uh, for what they doing because of the war. yes. and uh, and it's sure to do which should be managed by govern us government of your opinion

. back in warsaw. tom actually wants ski of the polish economic institute is more optimistic. for example, uh, price uh, farmers quotes, try to produce more complex products. so they can try to move up on the leather of value chain production and they should try to seek opportunities. for example, in buying some roll, the basic commodities from ukraine. work on them here and sell them with the some of the marketing of your game. we're taking a detailed look at the economics of ukraine joining. but what about the other cabinet of the western balkans? most countries in this region after you candidates for over a decade, north macedonia, even for 2 creeping reforms in the region by lateral disputes between new countries and candidates and slow reactions from brussels. stalled them large min process. but here the economic story, the difference was the cost of admitting the western balkans would be significantly

smaller. he takes basically to 6 west to book and countries. um, georgia, um, most of i have to move out to get a we demographic who's speaking. we're talking about more or less the same size of the united kingdom. we're talking peanuts frank, speaking peanuts for the you. but let's look at what it means for canada. countries to join one of the world's biggest economies. montenegro is a country for us to have in the queue. it's a joining the you and that's this market and part of it. so it kinda seems like it's already a member since 2002 montenegrins has been paying was euro for the country with a population of 630000. europe's currency offers a guarantee of stability. but new membership doesn't only promise abstract max for economic benefits. it would also be felt increasingly. yeah, it's not pivots found as an online learning started up in montenegro is capital for

her being and us citizen would be transformative. i think that that would be, that would give us like more legitimacy on the, on one side and on the other side like that, the brand perceptions being part of the you would be a stamp of approval for international investors. and another thing is like, oh, we never did business with a visa, montenegro. we didn't know how to do this, what the payment options, what that a lot i relations for them. i have them. but if we have parts of europe in union, would it be different and for many of them, they said that would be different because they know about it. ok. yeah, it's not as by far not the only montenegrin with high hopes for you membership 80 percent of the population wants to be part of the union citizens and the western balkans are and on average, just 14 percent of their european neighbors are at this moment we are around 45 to 48 percent of leaving sun to compare it to you companies. and that's the big 3

in succession boss converging in the us comes with leaving, stand up me like to sell it. so it has been following montenegro, his progress towards new membership closely. she says, the biggest cost of accession won't fly with you. it's not the question of the costs costs on mainly costs of local communities because it's not to brussels question, how will converge to event or how we will fulfill the rules? it's our job. it's our accountability. it's how it is specific to the road to annual membership has been long from montenegro was much still to be gained higher living standards, a bigger customer market and more international appeal. many people in montenegro hopes that new membership would bring about an economic boost monitoring acros government aims to join the blog by 2028 experts. one that goes unrealistic. so far,

the us only approved a fraction of bunch and that growth reforms sometimes leads that us don't know exactly what they want. we know exactly what they want. we want to be part of you the business as soon as possible. and look in montenegro unveils a paradox. economically the western balkans could be embraced by the single market and lift the living standards of millions, admitting the countries as much cheaper than admitting ukraine. but the region, the succession process has dragged on while you cranes as well mentioned behind it . that's because the question of whether the you can afford to expand is about much more than just money. from the put your should we say is we, i should put in a blog, you able to use them as much like the dc bar. i give them as always, for the kids email you have shown when they get the position

is being part of the new comes with a mutual defense guarantee. so attacking a member states as more costly. that's part of the rationale driving ukraine's push towards europe to a degree in research as you enlargement copies reasons. um the u. s. now seeing enlargement as a security and instrument so that you want so not for security reasons. and the budget is part of the discussions, um, but it might not necessarily be the deciding factor in that was an armed conflict raging on its borders. perhaps a better question is no longer whether the you can afford to expand, but whether it can afford not to. so they're all good to be economic costs. but the argument is that those economic costs are what i'm to take a given that the strategic upside of doing is overall. the

downside of not doing it is, is halting, right. lottie, mutants, land grab, has pushed you leaders to reevaluate the importance of expansion. so in the sense, enlargement was revised because of us jersey wasik, which is tied to eastern europe. and the challenge for those that believe in law's memo brovio and that's also the focus on it. i mean, the question is, how do we tagged on to that moment? what also remains to be seen is whether the warren ukraine creates enough momentum for new members to put their money where their mouth is. where does that extra money come from? actually that is also an open question. um it is possible that it comes from the cult member states. um it is also possible that the you raise this its own money through new own resources. there are discussions at the moment. for example, slip plastic tax or for with the new a common adjust the adjustment mechanisms. the question of whether that you can

afford to expand or not as a matter of perspective. and many of the costs can only be estimated for now. but to look at the past, the large man's rounds can offer some lessons on the benefits of letting new countries joined. in poland, initial costs for the u. a translated into an economic boom for the country, and that boom helps member states to one pond joining the european union and european colon markets. a few years ago, we started read the they nomics and profound transformational bodies economy. i think what, what we kind of polished is that of course, these are poor countries of that with, into the e. u. at the same time, it comes with benefits for the internal market, which becomes a big got, it comes with benefit, the cost of workforce becomes larger. and there is another lesson to be learned from the past. any budget we shuffle to new members doesn't happen over night.

during the last enlargement around new member states only received a fraction of their agriculture funding initially. then the funding was increased in phases. b, u actually has a reputation mechanisms to ensure that the fluctuations of what member states receive and pay in is not too high. and the also has a dictation mechanisms to do with enlargement to ensure that well it's so that the, the extra costs are not immediately very, very big. at the beginning of this episode, we asked whether that you can afford to expand what's clear is that an enlargement wave would mean a drastic economic re shuffle. for some in europe society that change would be felt concrete least do i end up losing positive budget? well mostly, yes, you do, you my view of this is unavailable scenario. fence a,

toby mars 3. this is positive scenario because when you are on that by every to means you are a reach level of and uh, concert with a strong economy. at the same time, living in new countries, springs, economic opportunities to millions of people. and that's the big 3. the accession boss converging in the problems, we believe expand of the experts we spoke to emphasize that when it comes to enlargement, affordability is also a question of political will. so they're all going to be economic costs. so the argument is that those economic costs haul was undertaking at given that the strategic upside of doing it overall. the downside of not doing it is, is often the question that remains is there enough momentum in europe to large mon plans to move member states to from the bill? if you have the time,

please fill in the survey on the on screen link or in the description. thanks for watching and take care the the, the phase where i live, mr. king, 7 for an aide. work is in gaza. that'd be in hopes that the humanitarian situation, my ease, and the desperately need of food can begin to reach the hundreds of thousands of risk of funding for how realistic of those hopes, my guess is yeah, mega and head of them. the wage and refugee council, for decades of experience in the humanitarian field. he's also a formative. matthew was personally involved with a low piece told between israel and the palestinians in the 1990. how does he fix the salvage war? and then in 6 months the war must be over. i

hope it's over in, in a week.