w, the warrant ukraine has prompted the calls to bring potentially vulnerable of organizations under the umbrella of the general t in union w business tasks. whether that's the street us next, be back up a time for the the i sorry. one on 6 times to please come and see more people than ever on the move worldwide. in such an one. great timing question. it's very hard to say very difficult to find out about time on storing info migrants one of over 200 lucky it's across the poland meant to shield the country from ukrainian products. farmers

here on a collision course with the expansion of the european union about this the because the idea do you membership offers economic opportunities to millions. we know exactly what they want. we want to be part of you. more and more people and you states are in favor of letting new countries joined the club and you officials have been pledging to make it happen. completing our union is the call of history. it is the natural horizon. i'll say your opinion about the countries in line to enter our port than those already in the us. and some europeans worry that enlargement will straighten their livelihoods. we must probably go for the bankruptcy. in this episode, we will look at what it means for us citizens to join one of the world's biggest economy. i think that's, that's what the smaller legitimacy we will assess the cost of enlarging where we're

talking peanuts, frankly speaking. and we will ask him to you afford to grow? that's all coming up on business beyond for more than a decade, the new seems like a close club with a line of members waiting to get in, turnkey became a new membership candidate in 1999. in 2018, that's succession process was suspended. but that's a story for another episode. 2005 north macedonia joined the que montenegro, follow to 2010 serbia, and 2012. and now pena in 20. 14. for a country to join the u. it must, shall feel certain criteria like being a democracy, respecting the rule of law and human rights, and having a functioning market economy. for the past 20 years of reforms this candidates have been slow and the use montrose was anti enlargement. this is the former president

of the european commission. john includes your bill and this is for miss jones. and paula mens mom that was built as kind of knowing these things are given budget by touch with doing this a few to them when russia invaded ukraine in 2022, all that changed the war catapulted you expansion to the top of the agenda in 2004, poland farmers joined the ranks of the biggest food producers in the u. you crane enters the union. that role is under threats because you cranes, industrial farms, dwarf europe, and ones. lucas is a green and pink farmer. i asked him, what would happen if you train were to join that you any time soon? we must probably go for the bankruptcy, i think. and because it would be easily filled up of, uh, all of the much cheaper. uh, products from uh the okay. what's the health of you innovation funds?

lucas invest in new technology for us. produce your opinion on the we have incredibly cost on that as a for the production, we've had follow up some documentation tracking, probing for $3.00 side uh services. we could fight the system to measure every move month till february peak, or every upholstery ukraine were to join the european union. it would likely get the biggest chunk of its agriculture budget. at the same time, farms like this one and poland would lose out on subsidies. the. but it's not just subsidies. lucas worries about these things. opening the use borders to ukraine before it meets europe in food production standards is foul play. likely to have the football match. and so you'll have, uh like one thing, it's not getting the right the costs or yellow carts. yes for for the, for what they doing because of the war. yes. and uh, and it's sure to do which should be managed by govern us government of your opinion

. back in warsaw, tom mostly wants to be of the polish economic institute is more optimistic. for example, uh, price uh, farmers quotes, try to produce more complex products. so they can try to move up on the leather of volume for the action. and so to try to seek opportunities, for example, in buying some roll basic commodities from ukraine to work on them here and sold them with the some of the margin of um, you're getting. we're taking a detailed look at the economics of ukraine joining. but what about the other cabinet of the western balkans? most countries in this region after you candidates for over a decade, north macedonia, even for 2 creeping reforms in the region by lateral disputes between new countries and candidates and slow reactions from brussels stalled enlargement process. but here the economic story is a different one. the cost of admitting the western balkans would be significantly

smaller. the take basically to 6 west to book and countries. um, georgia and most of i asked them all out to get a we, demographically speaking. we're talking about more or less the same size of the united kingdom. were talking peanuts frank, speaking peanuts for the you. but let's look at what it means for canada. countries to join one of the world's biggest economies, montenegro psychiatric for the to head, the q. it's a joining the you and as this market and pop go this way, it kind of seems like it's already a member. since 2002 montenegrins has been paying was yours for the country with a population of 630000. europe's currency offers a guarantee of stability. but new membership doesn't only promise abstract macro economic benefits. it would also be felt increasingly. yes, not pivots found as an online learning start up in montenegro is capital for her

being and use citizen would be transformative. i think that that would be, that would give us like more legitimacy on the, on one side and on the other side, like back to branch sections, being part of the you would be a stamp of approval for international investors. and another thing is like, oh, we never did the business of it with a month and negative. we didn't know how to do the sort of payment options looked at a low and i'm relations for them. i have them. but if we have talked a funeral pin union, would it be different and for many of them, they said that would be different because they know about it. okay. yeah, it's not as by far not the only montenegrin with high hopes for you membership 80 percent of the population wants to be part of the union citizens and the western balkans earn on average just 14 percent of their european neighbors. at this moment, we are around 45 to 48 percent of leaving sound of confess to you companies,

and that's the big 3 in succession pos converging in video films, we believe we extend the mula crystal. it has been following, montenegro is progress towards new membership closely. she says, the biggest cost of accession won't fly with you. it's not the question of the costs costs on mainly the fact of local communities because it's not to brussels questions, how will converge to them or how we've also so little it's all just it's our accountability. it's how long, specifically, the road to e u. membership has been long from montenegro was much still to the games. higher living standards, a bigger customer market and more international appeal. many people in montenegro hope that you membership would bring about an economic boost. montenegrins government aims to join the block by 2028 experts,

one that goes unrealistic. so far the us only approved the fraction of bunch. and that gross reforms sometimes leads us don't know exactly what they want. we know exactly what they want. we want to be part of you a basis as soon as possible. look in montenegro unveils a paradox. economically, the western balkans could be embraced by the single market and lift the living standards of millions, admitting the countries as much cheaper than admitting ukraine. but the region succession process has dragged on, while you cranes has well meant them behind it. that's because the question of whether the you can afford to expand is about much more than just money. the population we usually uh, should put in a blog, you able to use them as much like the dc bar. i give them as always, for the kids evaluation when that position,

being part of the new comes with a mutual defense guarantee. so attacking a member state is more costly. it's part of the rationale driving ukraine's pushed towards europe to a degree in research. as you enlargement, obvious reasons, um the us now seen enlargement as a security and instrument so that you want so not for security reasons. and the budget is part of the discussions, um, but it might not necessarily be the deciding factor in that was an armed conflict raging on its borders. perhaps the better question is no longer whether the you can afford to expand, but whether it can afford not to. so they're all good to be economic costs for the argument is that those economic costs are what undertaking, given that the strategic upside of doing is overall. the

downside of not doing it is, is halting, great, lauding near pollutants, land grab, has pushed you leaders to reevaluate the importance of expansion. so in the sense, enlargement was revised because of us jersey bostic, which is tied to eastern europe. and the challenge for those that believe in, in large memo brovio, and that's also the focus on it. i mean, the question is, how do we tagged on to that moment? what also remains to be seen is whether the warren ukraine creates enough momentum for new members to put their money where their mouth is. where does that extra money come from? actually, that is also an open question. um, it is possible is that it comes from the current member states. um it is also possible is that the you raise this its own money through new own resources. there are discussions at the moment, for example, slip plastic tax or for with the new calvin adjusted adjustment mechanisms.

the question of whether that you can afford to expand or not as a matter of perspective. and many of the costs can only be estimated for now. but to look at the past, the large man's rounds can offer some lessons on the benefits of letting new countries joined. in poland, initial costs for the u. a translated into an economic boom for the country, and that boom helps member states to one pond, joining the european union and europe in comb with market a few years ago. we started read the they nomics and profound transformational bodies economy. i think what, what we kind of knowledge is that of course, these are poor, are countries of that with, into the you. at the same time, it comes with benefits for the internal market, which becomes a big got, it comes with benefit, the cost of work for us becomes larger. and there is another lesson to be learned from the past. any budget we shuffle to new members doesn't happen over night.

during the last and large mate around new member states only received a fraction of their agriculture funding initially. then the funding was increased in phases b, you actually has a reputation mechanisms, is to ensure that the fluctuations of what member states receive and pay in is not too high. and the also has a dictation mechanisms to do with enlargement, which was that also the, the, the extra cost on not immediately, very, very big. at the beginning of this episode, we asked whether the you can afford to expend. what's clear is that in the large man's wave would mean a drastic economic, we shuffle. for some in europe society, that change would be solved, concrete least. do i end up losing positive budget? well, mostly, yes. you do. you might have, you know, this is unavoidable scenario and it's

a toby market street. this is positive scenario because when you are on that by every to means you're a reach level of and uh, concert with a strong economy. at the same time, living in new countries, springs, economic opportunities to millions of people. and that's the big 3. the accession boss converging in the problems, we believe we extend of the experts we spoke to emphasize that when it comes to enlargement. affordability is also a question of political will. so they're all going to be economic costs. but the argument is that those economic costs are well undertaking, given that the strategic upside of doing it overall. the downside of not doing it is, is all the question that remains. is there enough momentum in europe and large mon plans to move member states to from the bill?

if you have the time, please fill in the survey on the on screen link or in the description. thanks for watching and take care. the in germany and china are sprinkling ties, but the german chancellor is high level and high stakes visit to beijing will be a diplomatic and economic challenge. both countries can't seem to get a grip on their economic wolves. china is trying to export masses of subsidized goods to europe and america, but that creates new problems. the us and it's treasury secretary john yelling are already threatening further terrace as a trade warning. meanwhile, germany is trying a new china strategy oscillates between co operation and isolated on to the point we ask us china trade war,

which side is germany on the.