so i don't think we will see the immediate response in israel. this is also partially why, you know, the, the, the pasted was saying and this kind of complex thing is really one takes time. but the last 4 departments that it's shiny, thank you is always that's our middle east analyst shawnee resign us and we can speak now to hands. you all commissions are a senior director of the counter extremism project. thank you so much for speaking with us on the w news. i'd like to start with your thoughts on what has happened here. what do you make of the a tac last night to thank you so much for having me. it was me a you may need escalation, which is nicholas and unfortunately, really complicates things, but it was an escalation, again within the reading and twist. so what happened is, immediately after the drones and the records for a loan from the reading in the territory, united states tv officially announced the launch giving these re lease hours in the

case of the drones. and very long time the case of the missiles to actually get ready to defend themselves, including with the help of the men i can. so clearly the radians wanted to show me control force and minimizing the damage that's actual force would uh meet upon is around. um, in a including then of course getting the un mission. yeah. new york and there's going to be a security council meeting later today. evening time in germany again, new york on this attack, getting the right emission of all places to announce that this could be it from our side. this is already on the ation case closed. if you choose to close the case and then having the family representative to say, we no longer want any explanation. and we only made use of our right to self defense according to the writing cop, which of course, totally integrates the points that it has to be a proportional response. and then that rockets and drones is not exactly

a pop in the eyes of the ring. and a proportional response. so if i understand you correctly, it sounds like you think in this case, iran needed to be seen to be doing something in response. do you think that iran it could have mounted a stronger attack and whether this was something it considered? yeah, i mean they haven't put on all the stops. don't forget. so his boss is it packed and the extension of the new regime in, in liberty county does have a very sizable house. now that has the potential to actually over around is really a defense as, as we have seen in ukraine. it's not the individual shy drones of the rain inside the problem. it's the number of sight drones that i fired. that is the problem in this number that was fired last night really was not sufficient to over battle. these really defense is not, in my opinion, what the design to do. so simply shore force inside there on. now, of course, the resume celebrates these as a great success, but the problem is all sites i've lost,

the tenants here. these really is not for most of the trends because it is i'm present into that is the 1st times and since not me resolution, but you're on the tax itself from each time we don't know why i broke seek as well . but also, do you mean you really failure to hit anything? literally anything in israel means they now just demonstrated that potentially their systems are not good enough to withstand as well, which then of course was what on demand of those. and he's going to say, this is a good time to do, a very forceful responds and will be evaluated. the price goes to the readings just showed us that systems are not as good as they thought they were. so with a deterrents compromise, as you say, do you think that now after, after almost a more than a decade of proxy war, some kind of threshold has been crossed here, where we've seen a director, ronnie, an attack on his release oil. and i'm just a small correction,

the proxy war between these right and the wrong didn't start if they could ago, it started much, much longer to go from the very beginning, the enmity and the need against israel was part of the core ideological tenant se. let me group optical fear rock. so it's been at a higher level in the last decade, but it's always been there. it's always being one of the, as i said, core, i did lots of good themes of the rainy regime. what happens now is really be in a new situation in the middle east, and there's really no good way out of this because both sides have to find and use it really freedom again. and we have not yet that, that it becomes clear what that you really don't actually with me. how concerned are you about the likelihood of escalation here? how do you expect the israelis to react? i mean, it's a very, very, very 10 situation and any misstep from either one of the sites is going to really detroit potentially uncontrollable escalation. yeah, we already have

a western shooting war not only with guy, but also with a full face and is full life for many, many months since october 7th. and we now have this direct attack here, if these really responds is attacking inside the rod, and then they're also levels of escalation that use radius could choose. they could just simply attack some of the many games to nations for which those are what goods and drones launched. this would be a classic us response to hit those spaces from which you were attacked by these radius could also decides to last and finally solve what these really government has always said is they may just read the actual speech, but it won't be wrong if it's nuclear broker and attack the, the rain in new britain installations inside the rod, which would be a now the major major explanation hands. these are named us officials. why you know, talking to the media. united states saying, i'm biden said to nathaniel,

i won't be able to defend you and be, i'm in class on your side, but we will not support your manual offensive operations inside the wrong. now if this is really what the american president sits to a biggest randy, prime minister was country just got it back. it is a very, very, i'm president, a statement from an american uh president. and it really shows how deep deep the concern is in the was that ministration that this now can get out of control. do you think the rest of ministration is also concerned about spread outside the region? well, you know, i mean my personal assessment was that it's very likely that maintenance would respond with, with the tax against his randy, diplomatic and also she institutions outside the teacher. the image is something that the radiance i've done before. i remind you of that, was it packed in uh, south america in march, dina, against the embassy and a control center in the ninety's ninety's, even in berlin, where you are right now. in 1992,

there was the beginning of some aggravating exile politicians. and then we couldn't us attack. there was a bombing officer, any tourist in 2012 in the book. i was put there. yeah. so you're in, iran has demonstrated that you can also attack and strike outside of the region with help by the way of respond operatives in each one of these groups. so, you know, there are levels of retaliation that you're on has not yet taken. and what do you expect around proxies in the region like has the law and the who the rebels to do here as well. i mean, one has to defend differentiate between the proxies and the control that you're on ultimately has. all of these boxes now is paula is a 100 percent meaning creation. it was at the core of forming his phone off during the civil war and living on in the 1980s from the on the same. so you split up really is an extension of the stomach republic, either proxies, especially the whole face, of really being newly added to the union portfolio books. these only really after

2015 and the attack or so the rape. yeah, that's how you, i. e n d r states under, with these in yemen, you mean in c, a o, but unity yet strength and their relationship build up to these in order to essentially net, their regional rival. so they read the a fleet, now the one piece i left for less in depth. it's due to convenience than these on ice. and therefore you run with, i'm always be able to go that route these to shoots. if the maintenance ultimately can tell that with these to stop shooting and they will, that still remains to be seen. for example, leave for months now really being attempts to tom tom down the fees and to tell them that it's not worth continue to harass shipping. the right seat and i will find the meetings, even if the drive doesn't seem to be able to stop it. so the escalation can also come inadvertently by the spokes these. oh, are you know,

in various measures of control of as you say we've seen shipping disrupted in the red sea? what do you think the effect here might be on energy markets? if we do continue to see an escalation of the region to so far, international transport has managed to emerge a real crisis. and then when it comes to the red sea, of course contain that prices are doubled. shipping insurance have tripled, and ships need to go now around the african continent, which adds 10 days. however, this is not really affecting energy exports so far. however, the radians just before they launched those records and drones actually took a is really own or link chip to the sodium group of the offer of the m s. m s. c, r. e's in the strait of them was off the portable data, which i it out hostage essentially like pirates to guy look up there and basically

forced the ship to enter in the reading hob. now if this continues, the straight, the foremost is actually a very large energy supply route, not only for saudi and u e o l, but also for energy from tom which supplies in a major way of straight. yeah. and japan and then and increasing manner. european union during germany because as the, the german government, i mean your sign gas and n g deals with cut the impact, substitute the gas, they're no longer purchasing from russia. so any dropping the straight from what was of course, a major emitted side for energy prices on the growth. however, this is also a huge loose proposition for the maintenance because that time cuz also need to straighten these the straight for or for most and us has enough military assets in the persian gulf to make sure if other ships can't leave for impact. definitely raining time because also won't leave for inter straight. so this is hopefully

escalation stage that the reason is that not to contemplate taking whatever these rates. and i'm curious if you could tell us what kind of diplomatic efforts we've seen from israel's allies in europe, including germany, to try to de escalate the situation here to well, in the run up to this side of the american administration really put all pulled out all the stops they were very clearly communicating. hey, i remind you are prison biden's that simply don't let the radiance shouldn't attack israel. they asked china a turkey. um, gemini, the okay. your pain stage as long as i've stayed. so talk to the radians to tell them not to do this. i'm not enough. this came to fresh. now of course the is going to be the g 7 meeting later today. that is the security council. think china has already warned against escalation. it is certainly not in the interest of russia to

see it's new and you found allowing your brain walking around significantly weekend . so there is significant, the forces that i'm told down. do you mean? so it's all really depends on what these really decide decides. now your main design a very uncomfortable position, you're always going to decide to start an explanation. you're rarely on the one voice deciding when to stop. well, thank you so much for joining us today with your insights that is on jack ocean there from the counter extremism project. we appreciate your time. thank you so much for having me. if you're just joining us, let's get a recap of what we know so far. the israeli army says more than 300 missiles and drones were fired from iran directly toward israel. most of the muscles were intercepted by israel and the united states, the u. k. and jordan have also shot down drones, air raid sirens that sounded across israel and explosions were heard in jerusalem.

iranian revolutionary guard says the assault is in retaliation for an attack on its consulate in syria, which killed several generals iranian diplomats. the united nations set in the statements, but their attack on israel can quote, be deemed concluded us, and that is our show for now. i will be back at the top of the hour with more news headlines. thank you so much for joining us. the

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