capabilities, i guess my next question would be then, how it was possible for iran to become such a global drone power house despite western sanctions. well again it's, you know, it's, it was this early bed that they made to get into the, you know, and that to get into the, the, the field of technology. um, really before people are actually taking it very, very seriously. also keeping in mind, but drones as compared to say, missiles don't necessarily require incredibly sophisticated components. you know, you, you don't need necessarily like a very expensive rocket system. the kind of system that might be subject to sanctions or trade restrictions. you might just have a propeller or something, but it's as simple as what you can buy for a hobby plane. and in that regard, they sort of made this very, very, i'm president. bet that going low going small. you know,

going simple could actually be a pay us because a lot of the way customs that we've developed well for, you know, big rocket powered systems aircraft and such. and so being able to fly under the radar was a bit of a hole in that. arthur, thank you so much for joining us today. that is, are there holland michelle senior fellow at the carnegie council for ethics and international affairs and we can speak now to hands you all commissions are a senior director of the counter extremism project. thank you so much for speaking with us on the w news. i'd like to start with your thoughts on what has happened here. what do you make of the a tac last night to thank you so much for having me. it was me a you may need escalation, which is nicholas and unfortunately, really complicates things, but it was an escalation, again within the reading and twist. so what happened is, immediately after the drones and the rockets milan from the ring in the territory, united states tv officially announced the launch giving these re lease hours in the

case of the drones. and very long time the case of the missiles to actually get ready to defend themselves, including with the help of the men i can. so clearly the radians wanted to show me control force and minimizing the damage. that's actual force. what uh meets upon is around. um, in a including then of course getting the un mission. yeah. new york and there's going to be a security council meeting later today. evening time in germany again, new york on this attack, getting the right emission of all places to announce that this could be it from our side. this is already on the ation case closed. if you choose to close the case and then having the family representative to say, we no longer want any explanation. and we only made use of our right to self defense according to the right to the top. which of course, totally negates the points that it has to be a proportional response. and then that rockets and drones is not exactly

a pop in the eyes of the ring and a proportional response. so if i understand you correctly, it sounds like you think in this case, iran needed to be seen to be doing something in response. do you think that iran it could have mounted a stronger attack and whether this was something it considered? yeah, i mean, they haven't put on all the stops. don't forget. so his boss is it packed and the extension of the re, new regimes in, in liberty county does have a very sizable house. now that has the potential to actually over around is really a defense as, as we have seen in ukraine. it's not the individual shy drones of the rain inside the problem. it's the number of sight drones that i fired. that is the problem in this number that was fired last night really was not sufficient to over battle. these really defense is not, in my opinion, what the design to do. so simply shore force inside iran. now, of course, the resume celebrates these as a great success, but the problem is,

all sites i've lost, the tenants here. these really is not for most of the trends because it is, i'm present ended. that is the 1st time since then. it's not me, revolution, but you're on the tax itself from each time we don't not play a proxy as well. but also do you mean you really failure to hit anything? literally anything in israel means they now just demonstrated that potentially their systems are not good enough to withstand as well, which then of course was one on the middle of those. and he's ready to say, this is a good time to do. a very forceful responds and will be evaluated. the price goes to the readings just showed us that systems are not as good as they thought they were. so with a deterrents compromise, as you say, do you think that now after, after almost a more than a decade of proxy war, some kind of threshold has been crossed here, where we've seen a director, ronnie, an attack on his really swell. i'm just a small correction,

the proxy war between israel and the wrong didn't start, they get a go, it started much, much longer to go from the beginning, the enmity and they need against israel was part of the core ideological tenants of these let me group optical 3 rock, so it's been at a higher level in the last decade, but it's always been the, it's always being one of the, as i said, core i did lots of good feelings of the rainy regime. what happens now is really be in a new situation in the middle east, and there's really no good way out of this because both sides have to find and use it really freedom again. and we have not yet that, that it becomes clear what that you really don't actually with me. how concerned are you about the likelihood of escalation here? how do you expect the is re lease to react? i mean, it's a very, very, very 10 situation and any misstep from either one of the sites is going to really

detroit potentially uncontrollable escalation. yeah, we already have a what you're shooting war not only with guy but also with a will face and is pull out for many, many months since october 7th. and we now have this direct attack here, if these really responds, is attacking inside the rob. and then they're also levels of escalation that use radius could choose. they could just simply attack some of the many games to nations for which those are what goods and drones launched. this would be a classic us response to hit those spaces from which you were attacked by these radius could also decides to last and finally solve what these really government has always said is they may just read the actual speech, but it won't be wrong if it's nuclear broker and attack the, the rating new britain installations inside the rod, which would be a now the major major explanation. hence, these are named us officials. why you know, talking to the media. united states saying, i'm biden said to nathaniel,

i won't be able to defend you and be, i'm in class on your side, but we will not support your manual offensive operations inside the wrong. now if this is really what the american president sits to biggest rein department is to which country just got attacked, it is a very, very, i'm president, a statement from an american president. and it really shows how deep deep the concern is in the was administration. that this now can get out of control. do you think the rest of ministration is also concerned about spread outside the region as well? you know, i mean my personal assessment was that it's very likely that maintenance would respond with width attacks against this really diplomatic. uh, and also she institutions outside the future and which is something that the radiance happened before. i remind you that was attacked in uh, south america in argentina, against the embassy and a control center in ninety's ninety's, even in berlin,

where you are right now. in 1992, there was the beginning of thumb, as you mean in exile for the additions. and then we cannot subtract. there was a bombing, obviously, the tourist in 2012 in the book. i was put there. yeah. so you're in, iran has demonstrated that you can also attack and strike outside of the region with a help by the way of respond operatives in each one of these days. so, you know, there are levels of retaliation that you're on has not yet taken. and what do you expect around the proxies in the region like has the law and the who the rebels to do here to? well, i mean, one has to defend to differentiate between the proxies and the control that you're on ultimately has full instruction. this now is paula is a 100 percent remaining creation. it was at the core of forming his phone off during the civil war and living on the 1980s from the on the same. so it's not really is an extension of the stomach republic, other proxies,

especially the whole face of really being newly added to the union portfolio folks . these only really after 2015, and the attack of saudi arabia. therefore, you are e and the arch states under, with these in yemen, you mean in see a opportunity yet strength and their relationship build up the fees in order to essentially net their regional rival. so they read the i preach now they will fees are therefore less indebted studio convenience. and these are nice and therefore you, ron, will ever always be able because it will cease to shoot if the maintenance ultimately can tell that with these to stop shooting. and they will, that still remains to be seen, for example, of each month now really being attempts to tom tom down the fees and to tell them that it's not worth continued to harass shipping the right seat. and so far, the meetings, even if the dried doesn't seem to be able to stop them. so the escalation can also

come inadvertently by these folks. these are, you know, in various measures of control of as you say, we've seen shipping disrupted in the red sea. what do you think the effect here might be on energy markets? if we do continue to see an escalation of the region to so far in the national transport has managed to emerge a real crisis. and then when it comes to the red sea, of course contain a spices of double shipping insurance have tripled, and ships need to go now around the have to can come to the end, which adds 10 days. however, this is not really affecting energy exports so far. however, the radians just before they launched those records and drones actually took a is really own or link chip to the sodium group of the offer of the m s. m s. c. our use industry to, for most of the portable data, which i, it out hostage essentially like pirates to guy look up there and basically forced

the ship to entering the reading hob. now if this continues, the straight a from was, is actually a very large energy supply route, not only for saudi and u, e o l, but also for energy from tom, which supplies in a major way of australia and japan and then and increasing manner. european union during germany because as the, the german government, i mean your sign gas and n g deals with car impact, substitute the gas, they're no longer purchasing from russia. so any dropping the straight of from what was of course, a major emitted side for energy prices on the growth. however, this is also a huge loose proposition for the maintenance because that time cuz also need to straighten these the straight for or for most. and us has enough military assets in the persian gulf to make sure if other ships can't leave for him to definitely rain

in time because also won't leave for inter straight. so this is hopefully escalation stage that the mean is that not to contemplate, to be taken whatever these range that will to. and i'm curious if you could tell us what kind of diplomatic efforts we've seen from is rails allies in europe, including germany, to try to de escalate the situation here. well, in the run up to this uh, the american administration really put all pulled out all the stops. they were very clearly communicating. i remind you, a prison by them said simply, don't let the maintenance shuttle attack israel. they asked the china techie germany, the u. k. your pain states as well as ab states to talk to the radians to tell them not to do this. i'm not enough. this came to friction. now of course the is going to be the g 7 meeting later today. there's the security council. think china has already warned against escalation. it is certainly not in the interest of russia to

see it's new and you found allowing your brain walking around significantly weakened. so there is significant these forces, but i'm told down. do you mean sign? um, it's all really depends on what these rated sides decides. now when you're ready design a very uncomfortable position, you'll always can decide to start an explanation. you're rarely on the one voice deciding when to stop. well, thank you so much for joining us today with your insights, that is tunzia option there from a counter extremism project. we appreciate your time. thank you so much for having me us. and that is our show for now. i will be back at the top of the hour with more news headlines. thank you so much for joining us, the

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