the next, the research director of the international monetary fund tells us what's next for the global economy. i'll be back at the top, the hour with more of old news, followed by the day i hope to see you this. the why do having does not get drunk. why do gravitational waves squeeze all bodies? how much do we need per day? press stop hans, praying for help find the on says get smaller on dw science outtake talk channel. the a so mr. going to thank you very much for making time for the developing these busy weeks of the year. let's talk

about the good news 1st. um, the great recession, somebody be warning of doesn't seem to really have materialized a global growth is expected to remain steady at over 3 percent this year. how do you explain this kind of surprising resilience? well, we had the yes, we had a very resilient global economy. were predicting global growth at 3.3 percent this year and next year. and that's the same growth number as last year. 2023. so it's kind of a steady growth, not super charge. some in days, thoughtful growth rate that we like to point to is what do we have between $22019.00 that was more like 3.8 percent. so it's modest but very far from the global recession or anything that may have been predicted at the time of the coming out of the pen demik and the inflation search. so what explains that? we've had a good news on the supply side. so unwinding of supply fractions restrictions and

supply chains. and we've had also very good news on the labor side, a very strong increase in labor force participation. overall labor supply is expanded in many countries that has provided a lot of support for economy connectivity going forward. and then some countries also have very strong demand side that us in particular, maybe we'll get into that. and so the strength of the us a consumer has been, has been quite strong in the last we can go there right away. um, maybe you can talk a little bit about this thing here in the united states. yeah, so what we had in the us is we had both positive developments on the supply side and on the demand side. so on the supply side, as i've mentioned already, labor supplies expanded, increasing labor force overall with a significant components coming from foreign born workers. that's been kind of the little bit of the hidden secret behind some of these resilient. so we've seen that in the us. see this in canada, we seen this in the okay,

we see the sea and other european economies as well. strong labor supply, strong productivity growth in the case of the u. s. t, there's been us economies been doing very well in that form. quite a bit of investment as well. so these are kind of on the supply side. and then on the demand side, households, we've accessed savings, a lot of public spending. and so you had also, there was really an economy on the demand side on balance. the us economy is probably one where the demand forces are having a little bit of the advantage right now. and that's why we are seeing maybe a little bit of a slow down or even a plateau in terms of the pass of this inflation. because the demand becomes, we'd strong then that fuels inflation pressures and that's kind of where we are. right. so went on to send you right. migration is part of the success story that here in this country. it is helping to into ways it is help because, you know, of course, more workers when there is a strong demand for labor and, and as the economies reopened,

people had accessed savings. they wanted to go out and consume. and so there was strong demand and businesses wanted to hire. and in the context in which they would have been limited labor supply, the know it's a fed into even stronger installation pressures. wage pressure is tight labor markets. so the, the increase in labor supply as contributed to off the labor market without causing a recession. so this is kind of this immaculate, this inflation that people are talking about when it comes out that one of the drivers may have been increasing labor. so, so i want to 0 in the outlook for 3 economies in particular the us, china and the u because we see some really interesting differences both of us and the chinese economies of for cost to slow down in 2025 by the years on is expected to see recovery and why all the worlds to biggest economy is losing steve. and to see you on course to kind of play catch up with something that you asked. what

we're seeing is, of course we have, i had mentioned the fact that the demand is very strong right now. so in the sense the economy is running a little bit hot. and some of that is going to go away as monetary policy remains tight. and we'll, we'll see the labor market putting a little bit more. so that explains some of that unwinding of this, this front in 2024. so we are predicting that growth is going to go to 2.7 percent this year. and 1.9 percent by by 2025 in china. or we were projecting for 2024 growth that would slow down to 4.6 percent. now the new chinese numbers came out last night. they point to maybe is from the resilience in the chinese economy in the 1st quarter. so we'll see how we revise on numbers. but overall, the weakness in the chinese economy is coming from a weak property sector that is wing down consumer confidence. how's prices are still going down or not increasing? we see a decline number of new construction. so this is

a sector that remains weekend is going to wait on consumer confidence and domestic demand going forward. and that's why we are marketing down our forecast for china in the u area. we stopped on the opposite end of the region was hit by a very sharp energy price chalks in 2020 to 2023. it's coming out of that, but the money to policy is still tight. so what we're seeing going forward is one of the policy will start the fees that will use financial conditions. and then as wages continue to grow and we cover wages, purchasing power of workers of decline and recent years in europe, and they're expected to catch up, that will provide additional purchasing power to workers in household and that will sustain the demand. so let's talk about developing countries emerging and developing countries overall i expected to continue to post solid drug with india, in particular, is expected to stay strong as well over 6 percent. um,

would you say that this growth is primarily homegrown, or is kind of this country uh, benefiting from wesson attendance to the couple of de risk. uh, that ties with china. india is, is, is one of the, one of the bright spots in the world economy. we have a revised upwards for both numbers for last fiscal year 2324, which ended at the end of march uh quite substantially to 7.8 percent growth. that's really very, very high growth number for the country like india. and then we're expecting 6.8 percent in the next fiscal year, the one that just started that's also revised upwards a little bit. so this is in the context in which the economy is really doing very well and is expected to keep some of that momentum going forward. there's, there's a strong demand. there was quite a bit of investment including public investment. and so we're going to see a growth numbers are fairly solid in india and we're expecting that the medium term

grows are around 6.5 percent. so are also fairly, fairly high. although these numbers have not been changed from our previous round. now, it is true that the trade tensions that have emerged in the global economy, and some of them are between the us and china. but more broadly, we've seen emergence of trade pensions. these lead to the configuration of, of supply chains and integration of supply chains. and that can benefit certain countries. now this is not a story for india right now in terms of the aggregate numbers we're seeing. but it's certainly a story. and when we look at the countries like vietnam or mexico, we see a lot of trade that used to take place between say, china and the united states. that would be, we routed through this. what do we call them, connect to countries, they help keep the, the global glutamine global economy together the global route with you want and they prevent a sharper, sharper. this integration of,

of global trade. we of course have to talk about the 2 conflicts in ukraine and the middle east. if you factor those into your predicts. so we, of course, we're monitoring the situation and the tensions in the me, the least a started escalate back in the last quarter of next year. and that is certainly part of our, of our projections. but we flag as a one of the downside risk for the global economy, the emergence of additional geo political tensions. and certainly the events of the last weekend would, would be in that category. it's too early to assess the impact that this might have . but when we did, you know, report is run an adverse scenario and imagine what would happen if an escalation of geopolitical tensions led to an increase in energy prices and also disrupted a shipping on

a scale that is higher than what we've seen up until now. and we've seen some disruptions in shipments, for instance, between asia and europe, through the red sea. and this was canal. so in our scenario, we look at something that is a little bit sharper than that. and what we find is that it leads to higher inflation around the world. this higher inflation would push central banks to type in monetary policy in order to keep inflation under control that would weigh down on activity. so we would have a combination of slightly higher inflation, you know, simulations. we find that if you had any increase in oil prices of about 15 percent compared to a baseline, that would translate into about 0.7 percentage point higher inflation globally. and that would also be associated with lower economy giving. let's stick with russia for a moment. and this economy has proven pretty resilient, but the growth is expected to slow down to think this might reflect

on an expectation of a conclusion to the end, the war and ukraine. one of the stuff from where we are. so where we are right now is indeed we have marked up a growth projections for restaurants for 2024 from about, you know, 2.6 percent or $3.00. so it's a significant upward revision. and the drivers of that revision, the 4 things going on. one, you mentioned, oil exports of been quite resilient in volume, and then oil prices of remain fairly high. so that generates resources for the russian economy that can help a fund it's activities. second, we've seen strong investment in international investment for 2 reasons. one is of course, because there's a military effort, but also because it's, some of the private investments is substituting for them for, for an investment that was there before. and then 3rd, very importantly, we have fairly strong consumption. this type labor market,

unemployment rate is around 3 percent. the economy is running is running hot. and, and in fact, we see inflation pressures in, in the russian economy. so the russian economy at this point is not running at the level, it is consistent with his potential growth. it's running above that and we see this inflation pressures. so some of the, some of the decline we're going to see is when that accessed stimulus, if you want is, is going to come out. and there, what do we find is that the russian economy is going to settle on. the medium term goes past that, you know, our baseline continue to factors in defect of sanction. so we make up projections, assuming that the sanctions are in place right now, all going to remain in place for our forecast or wise and, and we, we estimate that they have an effect in lowering medium term growth prospects for the russian economy. in fact, we've lowered them from about 1.7 percent that was before the war to about one and a quarter percent. uh at this point. what does all of that mean uh,

horror restaurants, ability to invest in the war machinery so far uh would were sending is uh, on the fiscal side there's really ample fiscal space when you look at the, the russian economy. so this is not an economy that is running a huge fiscal deficit. now running a pretty conservative, pretty tight to both fiscal and monetary policy. despite the fiscal efforts in, in terms of new choice funding. we have to talk about a, i real briefly um, according to your reports, i'm 60 percent of workers in advanced economies will be affected by developments, an artificial intelligence, about half in a positive value and the other half in a negative direction. so could you expand on that and how this breaks down across different sectors? right, so we, we, published in january is a big study on the potential impact of a i,

on labor markets. and our focus was on different types of occupations. so rather than look at industries directly, we decided to go one level deeper and look at the type of jobs and the tasks that people are doing. and think deeply about which ones were likely to be maybe substituted by a i or the ones that might be enhanced by a i. and we did a very detailed care. uh, you know, uh, type ology of the different tasks. and we found that, you know, some of you might think about some of the professional services, some of the more managerial positions might be enhanced by a are some of the more clerical types of positions might be substituted by a guy that can maybe do the same type of tasks, one other for unskilled tasks, for instance. then the army not be as relevant because it is not likely to substitute for that. so then you can map that into into sectors and think about which sectors might be, might be more vulnerable, and certainly some sectors and services of professional services. you might see

some of them be benefiting from the introduction of the i, unlike some other sectors, are, may be focus more on a more basic tasks. thank you very much. you're welcome. the when it comes to environmental protection, one of the biggest challenges is how to balance competing interests all too often there is a conflict between nature conservation. our economy goes, bought, taking auction on climate change, come and look new opportunities if it is done right. so welcome to go off because i am a son drug of homes that we nobody else right here in comp. hello uganda onto.