now the ceasefire would not be permanent and there would still be hostages and gossip. on tuesday in cairo, egypt, a home aust delegation will sit down to consider what the us is calling an extraordinarily generous offer. a possible window of opportunity for both sides. will they take it on board golfing berlin? this is the day the mazda has to be forward a proposal that is extraordinarily, extraordinarily generous on the part of this room that is appropriate, of course, on certain issues. but students there is fundamental issues that there must be a sort of compromise from both sides. the only thing standing between the people of guys that cease fire is the most you would find a lot of pressure included in both sides not to

reach any kind of compromise. also coming up a plot to overthrow the german government and replace it with an aristocrat wouldn't be modern day in for 9 suspects, charged with treason. their trial began today. the whole affair is really a big burden for our democracy and really, really needs transparency. who is behind this grouping and what went wrong, that they could operate so long without having being seen for to our viewers watching on cbs in the united states and to all of you around the world . welcome. we begin today as diplomats dare to talk seriously about a serious see its fine is real and some of us have been and were practically non stop 7 months now. the only pause was about a week last november tonight and something more substantial appears to be in the works is real, is reportedly offering

a limited ceasefire in exchange for the release of $33.00 is rarely hostages and loss reported lee is demanding the release of hundreds of palestinian prisoners held in his really presence. now will him off and israel, where they find common ground will a know be a green light for is really troops to launch the round defensive against rough up. this is what is real as close as allies said on monday. how much has before it a proposal that is extraordinarily, extraordinarily generous on the part of israel. and in this moment, the only thing standing between the people of guys and a cease fire is the most they have to decide and they have to decide quickly. so we're, we're looking to that and i'm hopeful that they will make the right decision. and we can have a fundamental change in the, in the dynamic does seem to me, the is the, you know, let's be frank, a pretty generous offer of, of, you know,

sustained 40 days he spied the release of potentially thousands of palestinian prisoners in, in return for the release of these hostages has not been in captivity for over 200 . all right, i'm gonna pull in now. hans, y'all should learn is an international diplomacy analyst and the senior director at the counter extreme is in project. he joins us tonight from new york is generally it's good to see you. so diplomats, they have been open, especially in the last 24 hours about their optimism about this possible ceasefire deal. what does this tell you as well, i mean the act those undoubtedly, but i like to add it where to fortunately, it's been closed before it has frequently really been a problem about the leadership in guys all the time as well. it's not reading the willing to accept the conditions of a deal. that's how much the the ship is outside cause that and it's like sampling stuff. i was willing to accept result while there's pressure and up just from

secretary blinking, but also 13 nations collectively called on my mouse to take the deal out. and i have to release the hostages. it's only over, i mean, it's old. and that is the international community pressure ring come off with what you just mentioned. what about the pressure on israel to make this ceasefire deal a reality? while these really goverlan to be frank has been opened to make it seized by a deal um for awhile now. that's been a sub, a shift from i only wanted to accept short term as these fires and limited number of people. and also only to be released only listings with minor crimes. now that has shifted to a longer building this drive along because these via but also to release palestinians that have most serious crimes against them. and what would it be is really want to have from us or not? i mean, it's very clear that the general came up is raised operations in jobs. i,

the, the destruction of our mass as an ongoing tre is concerned, is still and remain still the main, one of the main targets, the other ones, of course, being the hostages. and this is where the appropriate mix is. the hostages are the same time for our mass, their life insurance. so i doubt that how much is willing to release on of the hostages. equally, i doubt that even if this deal is made, that he's right and he's going to commit to an ending ceasefire. there's still a rough up and i still for battalions. if i'm us in rough, i as well as the key there's need is save days and thing. why and rough. ok. they cannot lead to lift a need for the rough uh lot. otherwise, i must, when we come to june, very fast after the it says, how do usually this is how much does not take this deal. will that be a green light then for and is really ground operation into rasa? letting me formulate like this is randy goverlan concave hostages back with this

they very shortly or they've been preparing for. busy the rightful offensive planning, talking to the american, a government about their plans, how to protect civilians in dogs that during the offensive, if they can get those to just back, these ready to government has no choice. they will have to do with this offensive and try to read also just by post rather than through negotiation. all right, that's another topic that's on the radar, particularly in israel, is really media are reporting that the international criminal court might soon issue arrest warrants for senior is really government and military officials. i mean, do you see this timing as a coincidence or, or is there something more here as well? i mean, 1st of all, the brand is uh, potentially to uh, issue the best ones, not only for its really is the name of the tire patients, but also for how much. so if it happens, hopefully, well be a binds biased approach, looking at what happens next. one is not necessarily yet a conviction of guilt. mind you. so i don't see

a particular connection between what the i c i c, t to us, and what the negotiates doable. in, in cairo and into okay, how's that give similar as always, but usually we appreciate your time and your analysis. thank you. here at germany, 9 people suspected of plotting to overthrow the national government went on trial. today they face charges of terrorism and high treason, prosecutor say the ring leader was a businessman in german. the aristocrat called hind, rich prince royce. they say the plan was to make royce a modern day german. him for this was the moment prince kindly slices. fairytale came crashing down. his alleged plan was simple, storm parliament and overthrow the german government. but all stories pounds before the plot could unfold. more than 3000 officers were involved in the december 2022

raids. it was one of the biggest anti extremist raids in german history. at its heart, kindly close a business man and self sailed german aristocrats. he's accused of leading the plot at his hunting lodge. he and dozens of others are alleged to have hatched. the plan violently overthrow the government. the group is linked to the right wing extremist, a vice via the movement or citizens of the rise. police say they conspired to establish a new german state based on the old empire from the late 19th century, with prince hinesville, as emperor among its members, former police officers, soldiers, and the former politician for the far right a if the party prosecutors and legs the network had access to a huge arsenal of weapons. the whole affair is really a big burden for our democracy and really,

really needs transparency. what's behind this grouping? and uh, what went wrong, that they could authorize so long without having been seen. now prince hind wish and his fellow suspected conspirators are set to stand. trial charge was planning an act of treason and membership of a terrorist organization. the voters across europe will elect a new european parliament in june. and the polls and predictions shift in the balance of power for right parties could emerge as the strongest political force in several european union countries, including france and the netherlands, and their predicted to come in 2nd in many countries, such as germany of turnout among young voters is expected to be higher than in the last election 5 years ago, and that's a demographic. all political parties want to win over tonight, the leaders of 8 major european political parties, including european commission,

president ursula, find the lion faced off in a debate in the dutch city of boston, the audience, hundreds of university students and the w. terry schultz. she had a front row seat to tonight's debate. she joins me now from last week in the netherlands. very good to see you. so this was an event for the university students . and right now, as i understand that you were supposed to be at an after party, but instead you're standing. well, i'm looking there is an empty square. what happens of the that's right, brand after this major kick off event. with ursula bundle ion and 7 other political leaders. there were supposed to be a big festive party where students could discuss what they had heard you were days plan that were bar set up. but as it perhaps is appropriate, the real world intruded on these plans and a, a group of pro palestinian students,

held a protest across the street from the, from the venue. and police decided to kick them out and shut the whole thing down hours early. so now instead of a bunch of partying students, you can see workers taking down the pro european union posters hours early. so yeah, this is not exactly the way that things were expected to end. but, you know, we're the only ones here now, actually worrying about getting kicked out ourselves. well, we still have to worry about finding any way to dance. let's go back inside after listening to the 8 candidates debate, you know what there was for debate. i mean, was there a clear winner of the well, there was one way to measure that. and that is because the organizers which were maastricht university and politico asked students on their way in and there were some 900 students watching live. so this was really a big event, ask them who they would choose for european commission president whether it was

a live underlying should be replaced, and by the end, the leader of the greens plus attitude, who is a dutchman. and he would, he one i, as to who the people here in this audience would have selected. but i came out and spoke to the students before they got kicked out of this square and asked them how they felt. and basically what i heard was that nobody was really happy with what they heard the candidates say they didn't feel like they had geared their answers towards the youth. let's have a listen. i guess i felt, but a lot of the debate was more about what others were not doing. i talked to one another rather than focusing on what each candidate wanted to do for you know, continuing this european dream. so it's, it's, it's interesting to say the least. so i'm a member of the green party myself. however, i thought that our green candidate, well, he was a bit disappointing tonight. i mean, he found that the green deal really well, however, i didn't, i didn't think that he brought his point across in the way that he could have done,

or that maybe other people could have done. i think he could have squeezed us up on the line a little bit more on what you promised that didn't deliver. i would have wanted them to be more brave into taking up on some issues that are important. i thing for europe in general, they didn't take any risk, so no, and that's a shame of the so students would really like to see some dramatic positions. i think more fighting more arguments and basically candidates delivered the same kind of talking points we would hear in brussels. and so really we didn't hear anybody coming out really cheering their candidates either turn, this reminds us avoid per time and time again about this democracy deficit in europe . people tell pollsters that they connect much more to national elections, national politicians, it's a never ending story. how to convince voters that what happens in brussels? instruct berg matters just as much as what happens in berlin, paris, or rome?

i guess, no success tonight of the. that's true. i mean, admittedly, these were 8 leaders of, of groupings that are pan european and, and so you know, you could be expecting that they wouldn't speak so. so clearly to national interest and boss equity to again came in 1st among the voters for european commission president, he admitted that he may have had somewhat of a hometown advantage being from the netherlands. but a lot of these students would have liked to hear them speak more to youth and they really didn't feel that. and this was one of the themes. the democratic deficit wasn't tacked one of the 3 themes. the candidates were supposed to address. one was environment 2 was defense, and security and 3 was the state of e u. democracy. but again, if you listen to the 2 of the students coming out after the debate, none of them really felt inspired. of course, what happened here in this square losing their after party may have had something to do with that. it certainly didn't help. yeah. and the irony here is that the

events that happened downside and with everything being shut down, that will actually get more media attention than the actual debate itself, right? this is true and this is what a lot of students were saying like this is supposed to be an event about european union democracy. why can't we talk about god, that the war between israel and god and was not a major event in the debate? and some students really felt strongly about that. many of them were very disappointed to see the police very forcefully, actually tearing the palestinian flags out of the protesters, hands and kicking them out with dogs and kicking out the journalist as well. so this was not a good scene. this was not the way you want a pro democracy event, the end of course, but we're glad that you were not injured in all of that w. terry schultz in moscow just for that. i'm like, i didn't get kicked out. okay. alright, very thank you. thank you. what i think

is a real issue is when, when we're start seem to see differences between the number of birds that people say they want and the number that they end up having. and so, i mean, if people want to have kids like then and they're unable to because of things like economic prosperity and cost of child care that's, that's not good, right? that's a bad seinford society. the americans are having fewer babies. in fact, the birth rate dropped in 2023 to its lowest level in a century. the only group then saw an increase where women 40 and older. it is a trend that began around the time when i was born since the 19 seventy's. despite the little book we saw during the pandemic, it has been just one direction downwards. as a result, the united states is aging like never before a gray superpower. or is this a contradiction in terms? are these demographics, dangerous for us, power at home and abroad? it is just one of the problem added realities highlighted as

a new study prepared for the pentagon to be released tomorrow. the rand study focuses on the relative decline in us standing one that it says is accelerating. it lives many reasons including addiction, to luxury and decadence. so loss of civic virtue military overreach, as well as self center, deletes and environmental abuse. after more than 2 centuries, after the pax americana of the 20th century is the decline of american power inevitable, almost pre programmed. well, my next guest has been thinking about the rise and fall of great powers. he is the lead author of a new study published in the proceedings of the national academic of sciences that suggest countries of white. they are population's age and the older they get, the greater the probability of their demise. i'm happy to welcome to the program, martin schafer. he is with the department of environmental sciences ad blocking snip. can you give them university in the netherlands, mr. shafer?

it is good to have you with this, your investigation. it called because it caught my attention for, for several reasons. i mean, you look at the mortality of states. first things 1st, what didn't you treat as a state? i mean, how far back in history did you go back and were there shared characteristics of, of all of these states? a while? states are very diverse. we have to look at hundreds of states, the earliest ones, 2002 years before christ and the most recent ones. and starting before the year, 1800. so we have an option of the modern states between half group at a very large collection and, and around large differences throughout small alarms, big warms, and some are terminated very, very quickly. orders were able to pull through for a millennium more or more. so it's

a very diverse collection that normally does it help to say the c, c, the veterans that the older states get, the more likely it is that the dent combs for a state just as a dose for humans. so we, we could show that there is a den seahorse stage to become fragile. and just like, just like human beings and i understand it correctly. the states have about the same life span, most of them the same amount of time before they enter decline. and i think it's what about 200 years, right. as well. yeah. but the there is a difference and to, to humans. so for humans to pro bill up to that you're done any given year it, it goes increasingly rapidly. i should become all her. that's why i'm normal for us become really, really very old. and for states it's slope like that. it's over the 1st 200 years.

they become increasingly google normal and then they stay in. busy less equally vulnerable search, so it's not as deterministic as it is with humans. some states are actually able to survive much longer gotten older. so that's a difference. but they do age and get to become more for their goal. and if we bring that then to our presence in the post mode where to order that has been directed by the united states, the super power us, it's about 2 markets, $250.00 of the birthday in just 2 years, 250 years old. would you say that it is now in a period of spaces, or is the us now living on borrowed time? a well that's, that's the, of course we cannot conclude from the, from the, our observations in pre modern states. but then one thing

you can say is that the united states are not alone prior to the united states. their constitution was rich and i think around the same time as the french constitutional french revolution. so there was a, do united states were very important, but there was a whole tendency around the world of different alignment away from the feudalism 2 and a meritocracy. to the industrial capital. there's some debt. no, no. and, and the united states are a very prominent play ranger but, but again, they're not alone. and this is a very different world in the sense that in the like a 1000 to years ago or so, and a stage good, full and, and that was it very usually it wouldn't have major repercussions. and with one exception, 11 important period when there was a cascading collapse of

a lot of state to disrupt the so called and beta grunts h collapse. and now of course we have a very connected world. so you said it's a very different situation. and on the other hand, i think the tensions that, that you see rising are comparable to dose in the past. but you mention like a stress environment, deterioration of the environmental conditions. you're perhaps increasing inequality . if you try to diagnose i, i would assume diagnosing a superpower in the 21st century, of course is different from diagnosing the condition of a declining power. 500 years ago. mean we're talking about new threats. nuclear war . i'm artificial intelligence this information, these new threats, these new elements. would you say the hurt or help americans chances of

saving itself in your opinion? oh, that's a very hard question for me to answer. course there is diversity idea or that the new peer threat has helped the present worse off for the 2nd quarter in tor m with the risk of course that when things go wrong they might cope variable. and i think what is definitely true is that we are all more connected to the world then before. and that is true for the united states. it's true for the netherlands where i, where i live, to various one, the periods in time when the, when there was such a collection in the country as a reference to the mediterranean sea. and that there's a period in which famously there was a cascading collapse of one state officer

d all there. that was that just office periods so so, so an archeologist has i've suggested that we are in a similar situation. nothing here is to risk for that guess caden failure. so i'll just say once we have doesn't happen and you know is the shape of before we run out of time. one reason that we learn history is in the hopes that we do not have to repeat it. so let me ask you, should your paper do you think, should it be required? reading for every lawmaker in the united states, maybe lawmakers everywhere. i think it's a good idea because it shows that there is this tendency to become fragile, but it also shows that it is not and never so some states were able to do something about it. good so far from the drive very long. so i think it's a good idea to read the paper. yeah, i'm a, it's a, it's a great read and let's hope that the, the story we're in right now has a happy ending. martin schafer,

we appreciate you taking your time to talk with us. it is and you thank you. thank you to well, the day is almost done, the conversation continues online. you'll find this on youtube x and facebook. either dw, nearest you can fall, would be at risk golf tv. and remember whatever happens between now and then tomorrow is another day, we'll see you then everybody, the

people are fighting over water in the name, the struggle has increasingly fitted herders against farmers. everyone needs this precious resource to survive the day as a no man who wants to mediate these disputes to stop the vicious cycle of violence and 3 and residents before it's too late. next on d, w and a wing sis of prosperity, luxembourg looks something is wrong behind the chic facade. housing is affordable

for many poverty and homelessness are rapidly growing. and n t o is trying to help. but politicians are standing by and doing nothing. poverty in europe's wealthiest country, close out in 60 minutes on d, w, the duty force it on anyone, but we did sell them such a product to us and by agreed in the 2000 star, 2 bank engaged in various high risk business practice. the types of unc was basically involved in every shady scandal in the banking sector. world wide range for as high a process. if you made money that was pressure to make more money. and then

the mind of a german institution, the georgia bang story may 2nd on d w. the, [000:00:00;00] the left and we're doing this is where the stream used to be. and yeah,