had its own about saying it's loud as things would of being nosy, bad like good everyone to ok. so to be turning into the microphone. sorry. check out the award winning pop comment. don't hold doc. experts have been expecting a fresh russian offensive for a while now. but certainly not expecting to be shake up in russia's military leadership that we solve this week. newton's defense minister for the last 12 years and the survey showing goes is out of the job. and he's been replaced by a civilian economist. what does that tell us about pretends strategy, and what will it mean for ukraine and are home bargains and losing ground in the region at northeast of harkey? there's, we're going through the points and we're looking at for is for economy and discussing whether new military leadership will mobilize russia for a long on the

hello and welcome. i'm quite richardson in berlin and i'm thrilled to introduce our panel this week. we have a vladimir, yes above officer and a journalist with d. w. nico, along a senior fellow at the munich security conference. and joining us today from your neck, marina maroney, military analyst with kings college london. or and welcome to you all read a after months of essentially stalemate. we're starting to see some movements again in the war and ukraine. russia making games in the north east. is this the new offensive that many analysts were expecting to take place this spring or summer as well? i won't be very careful as to describe it as the actual offensive. i believe this

is just a prelude to the offensive because what we're seeing now, obviously a new front has been opened in the north in har keith. and there are some talks about the potential of to me internally here, also being attacked by russian forces. however, we see activity along the entire line of contact. so from my perspective, this is just a way that's why she's trying to gain a better position and more favorable position for itself in order to street. i'm afraid we just can't hear the last bit of what you're saying. so i would turn over to nico, just to pick this up. we have the united states top diplomat, anthony blinking in care of this week. and we know that one senior us official, basically acknowledge that this trip was to reassure ukrainians. he said this was quote, a very difficult situation. can you read between the lines for us here? what is united states thinking about the situation?

first of all, i would have preferred the secretary blinking to go to hockey if instead of playing guitar in the club. and the situation is difficult also because the us took 6 months of a domestic discussions. most of them unrelated to your train at all to delay the necessary military assistance to ukraine. so the some responsibility of the us and the difficult situation the ukrainians know themselves that the situation is difficult. the question is what this done to help them, especially with ad defense, which seems to be the biggest problem for the equations and they are, i believe we have still not doing enough. and we will certainly come to that later in the show. but 1st, vladimir, you know, within russia we're also seeing big changes as well, boots and has been swapping people out of the top jobs in this re shuffle of the government. and i'm, i'm curious why we're seeing this now, even though it seems like things aren't going so badly for russia was it was expected for, for him to change something to make some changes on the government positions as

over some of the presidential elections. so it was expected, there might be some movements um, but besides the facts who lead state defense ministers, tribal elosa, for someone else. as long as was an important mistake, some powers in the russia. she is the only one who decides what's going on on the general, on the general was the front. so what comes i? it's talking about the in terms of me that there is to have to start to strengthen training the ukraine. but it did, did i some of stay, some power sensitive chief over the russian unit. i'll stop. so she decides what's going on on the, on the mental health and the ukraine. and the below sufficient with this is being described as pragmatic or professional economist indeed. but as i mentioned all on already, 14 is the only one who, who is there any to decide in the general direction of the russian politics. okay, so we have put in, you know, in a way keeping us guessing, with what has been the most significant change as to his military commander, since russia's full scale invasion of ukraine. and as we've hinted,

even one of pollutants closest allies was not spared in this region awful. side by side and good friends. that's how i'll show you cool and polluted and presented their relationship for years. 68 year old show who has ever seen the ministry of defense since 2012, his time in office. so the annexation of crimea, and the invasion of ukraine. but he did not deliver what boots and had hoped for a quick capture of keys. now he is being replaced by the civilian and right below self boots in hopes that the form administered of economic development will provide a boost to the alms industry in particular and use that. so you, course military technology is changing very quickly, which if we want to be successful, we must always be one step ahead. we could see that the initial cd and show who his new position, the secretary of the national security council. replacing nikolai pa to shift also

a long time alley of fruits. and what is patients a human restructuring, the military leadership, the bottom here, i'd like to talk a little bit more about showing go out of that job at. do you think these are ghosts here of of you have danny, for goes and the, and the wagner group chief for those who, who don't remember, he went after show you how hard a year ago there was a viral video in which he was a strongly criticized no gosh, so if you have any goals and you've been able to go into the history so it's, it's gone so it's not, not, not public any anymore. and then a replacement of a cycle. my, they have technical reasons for us that by the big question is what, what's important once to achieve or with the bill of. and the question is it for us is going for a long cold war for a long war? isn't mention, can ukraine stand for a long core as, as well as around 2nd,

and is the most important questions for the rest and public? because if the rest and rest and society system congress wants to support, you can no longer war begins trust. so you kind of need more support spend now? so let's take a little bit about his replacement then moreno. why do you think we're seeing food in a pointing a, a civilian, an economist, as his defense minister? well, i think that andre levels of has done and very good job in his previous position. and it's certainly somebody who's more scientific and who is also oriented towards more steve control of the military industry. and if we're looking at russia and see how it has behaved during the same since how it impacts his russian economy, we can see that the sanctions didn't achieve the desired effects meetings at whatever below. so who was doing? he was doing the right thing. and so for pollutants perspective, what he needs right now is somebody in the ministry of defense. he has somebody for

the military as has already been said. rosmer remains in his position, but he needs somebody who understands economics and who is able to take care of the military. industrial complex, especially as a defense spending increases and to integrated into the overall russian economy and ensure that it functions efficiently. also perhaps removing those layers of corruption or assembly years of corruption which were standing in the way of the proper and civil military cooperation and military innovation. because when you think of this, ken bellows of clean up rushes, military complex and make it more efficient to think of the 1st of all, i believe cycle is also a civilian. i think he's coming from the emergency services, but he was never an expert in military mattress. and so i go and goes, i'll see him off. i mean, they have messed up this aggression against your crime. no military goals have been the chief even after 2 years. so from the effect that the same of is staying there,

i would draw the conclusion that loyalty is still more important than competence and put in has made this movement. no, but i would not start with the hypothesis that this would work. i mean, shall i go ahead and many deficits, but he is a very important part of the system put in for many years. and he was able to quickly trone a lot of resources around, especially when the initial phase of the invasion got botched and rush. i had to go to other plans. um, so let's see if this really works and the russian war economy and to approach to this. i mean we are hearing a lot about this and it seems to me, part of it, at least is information warfare. what i see is old tanks getting out of storage, being refurbished, being drawn to the better field and destroyed very quickly. so i think from a risk and point of view of, we should not be afraid of russia waging, waging a little more. we have enough resources if we want to,

i've told you is russia and to do if you train everything it's need, it needs and also the the efforts northwest of hawk. if a seems to me more like a supporting effort to, to information campaign. and they are competing target that it's the, getting the population in hockey if and maybe so you mentioned you have to leave the cities. but it's not something that way i would, i would suspect, serious military results from the russian side. but just to, just to make things clear, if i understand you correctly, you think this does indeed signal that brewton is digging in for a long war of attrition. and the fact that he's, he's an economist, does this not signal the fact that futon is trying to find someone who can really put the economy at the service of the defense industry to put in this digging in for a long war. i think that is clear since april may 2022, when the initial plan did not work out. but there's nothing to be afraid of from

our point of, you know, military goes by the, on the roof of the russian side. have been the chief so far and i think we can make sure that also the new military goals will not be achieved. um, what i think is changing is that russia is more successful now in the information campaign and just trying to create a picture that it's hopeless to defend against restaurant to us. and when the divorce academy is running. and it seems that is impressing many people, including here in germany and invest in general. a lot of here is that also your opinion, do you think we should be afraid available stuff and what he can do with the rest of the economy? yeah, that's yeah. so don't be afraid of the loss of not at all. your son should be afraid of being not clear about your goals, because it's contradiction that signals good and from, from europe. on the one side, there's a lot of talks about delivering dollars to ukraine and delivering more refunds. and is it to face the to the is not our is the dividend through the ukraine?

no more. the funds and ukraine freezing their huge like of them and power as well. so it's not only about people in the system, so in the restroom, but the lack of, of min power in the inside the ukraine, which is a problem. but what, what the night and the to consult for the okay? so it's a contradictory positions contradiction the signal of going going from the rest on the one site, or you're supporting your ukraine on the other side. not really. and this is what, what she'll do 1st. so the face, bye bye, bye, bye address, and societies. ok. let's take a closer look at the situation in the northeast of ukraine. clearly, it is in a dangerous position here with russian forces pushing across it's north eastern border and taking over the past week controls moorland every day. then they have, since the start of the war or the region, no set of car keys is under constant fire soldiers, i'll guessing the remaining people out of the homes, one off to the right here. come on,

let's go. only take your document what the they can only take the battery essentials, not knowing if and when they'll be able to return. in easton ukraine lawyers hawks chunks directly on the front line. it's not far from call. keith, which is home to millions of the ones. 19000 inhabitants on the 500 remain you lie down and wonder will they kill me now? oh, and then i want you to sure. for those $500.00, it could now be the last charms to flee from the russian troops. the homeland has become the focal point of the current fighting. we drove through the city center. i can't see it without crying. everything is trembling with the russian army is testing the ukrainian resistance at several points up the front

can the we can soldiers with stand the russian attacks so we have thousands of ukrainians evacuating from the harkey of region. niko, many of them are reporting that this 2nd russian invasion is for them even worse than the 1st one at the start of the war. can tell us a little bit more about what you think we're seeing unfold here. russia has been telegraphing this for a long time. the air attacks and then you intensity on hockey. different also pop the on. so me and showing you stopped at some weeks ago. so this was clear that this what would come and it's the right move by the ukrainians to evacuate. a something village is to have a defense position somewhere deeper into the country and to defend their. but of course, this will lead ended let it for the last day is for russia been seen as taken territory, but it took most up to, to re territory because you create a vector 8 at the villages. now that the real defend started onto your brain

insight into creating or support in reserves and use more 45 positions. rushed off for the last 2 days is having more difficulties, the suffering, very heavy losses. and i think russia has to decide now where to put it in, in reserves to continue this with continue with its plans to do a similar efforts in the so me region. but let's be clear here. this is the supporting effort to what is going on in general and the russian to text me a trust if y'all and other places in the east, they continue at the same time why this is going on and stretching the ukrainian defense has been spreading. the ukraine and resources that is in effect, i think that russia is that even marina is that also what you think is going on here. put this into perspective for us as how do you think russian troops were able to advance so far and, and so quickly in the northeast and under to i'm afraid we've got technical issues here again. so watermark, if you could,

i'd ask you to jump in for that question too. what do you think happened? what went wrong here in ukraine's defenses? and looked at it as something went wrong because the grain is on the, on the limits because you can put a huge resources to the defense. lions in the front line was almost more than 1000 kilometer long. now we have a new piece of this is fighting against as you conventions already. so ukraine faced, as i mentioned already, there, michael likes to open demand power in the more weight points from the front of the rest, more resources and more man power moment. but as a, as in more, more troops on, on, on this, on this. and this is just another one problem for, for you create them governments with zalinski council for this trip to europe. yesterday, she was supposed to go to spain and portugal to canceled it on short notice because of this complicated situation on the front. so even if it's on the adjuster actually informational law for, for it, what's most facing hard because it's being treated very seriously by the, by the presidency lensky. and indeed, we even heard

a ukrainian commander criticizing this as quoted at the terrible border defense as marina. let's see if we can bring you back in here. what's your view, why ukrainian defense is warranted, better prepared. hey, there are many reasons for that. and we have seen that ukraine also has a problem of corruption as was a former defense minister resnick, of um. so i'm not sure what exactly happened, but apparently the defense is that were supposed to be constructed haven't been constructed in, in, in the way expected. and so the logical thing that has been done by you creating a troops is pulled back and let the russians enter. this is why we have seen this rapid tonight, in spite of the russian forces not withstanding, of course, it has drawn the attention of the ukrainian command and the necessity to decide where to send the reinforcements. do we stay entrusted yard or do we send them to harkey? and i think that was a plan, old gas,

or to divert the attention from more important directions. because if we look at the map, what the russians are trying to do is that they're trying to cut off ukrainian troops and cut through the grouping if they can get to colorado, we'll still need of it. so i think that the idea here is to develop the breakthrough that they had in or to retina and west of the you've got in order to get them for is or west. and the point that i'm talking about specifically i saw it on skin from a tourist and hard to you've for now i think is more of a distraction because they just don't have the manpower and they're not going to commit resources to take both chance front of it do a frontal assault on group of chance or a frontal assault on heart to you. okay, so ultimately meant to spread that ukraine's forces. then you go, we've mentioned blinking was on that unannounced visit to cube this week. there he said, us weapons will make a real difference. where are these weapons?

do you think? do you think so too? there are some of them are there and if they are they are, they make a real difference. and we can see that the new version of attack him as the ground based precision fire makes a difference on try me. uh, that's the only a region where the ukraine can still put some pressure on the russians into dust it and very significant, i think a text that's being conducted there. so yes, u. s. weapons make a difference. still blinking did not answer the question on what is the strategy of the u. s. w. a. d u. s. one to ukraine, helped to help ukraine to push russia or is it just this kind of slowed the recipe that divide house was perceiving as a center g. and i think on the one hand divide, how strategy of denying restaurant achieving is more ins has been a success. on the other hand, many in ukraine have to feeling the dripping off. the support is a recipe for a slow drip death for a few great. and i think it's up to the white house to make

a different strategic choice. we hear that now and your package is formed immediately after this one. so maybe there is some speeding up. and jake set of upside even alluded to higher speed of deliveries. but there is always a big difference between deliveries being announced and having a communicative effect. and delivery is really arriving to the troops in ukraine. yeah, these things take time, don't they? of why to me or do you think reference taking advantage of this window where your brain is still waiting and deliveries of. so look late because this is the deliver to delay of many months for so huge the trash and ultimately we'll take advantage of this, of this as to duration. absolutely, yes. yeah. there you go. and you are chief of staff to a german defense minister from the conservative party and until 2022. and you've recently suggested that allies could protect the sky over ukraine from nato countries like romania like poland. can you tell us a little bit how that would work in your view? but we have for the defense systems at the eastern border of nature,

which is also be simple enough to european union. and i think we should use them to shut down any russian drones and missiles that are in range that will at least cover $70.00 to $90.00. given me just into aerospace, into western part of your train, it would free up ukraine and they have different assets that could be brought to hockey if took in april. does that bodies are where they are, desperately need it? and so under, i'll take a $51.00 off to you in toronto, it's perfectly legit. liquor to do it. and we have seen that this kind of escal atory assumption that many hat in the west. it's just empirically not true. i mean, if the most qual has been sunk, if the black safety of headquarters has been attacked by christmas side. so what are we afraid of? we should just do it. i mean, this is exactly the argument that some from the center last have made that it would be at school a tori, a marina, though, i would like to get your view here because as we've said, it appears like there is some support for this idea. both within the german

government and the opposition. what chances do you think a plan like that would actually have of becoming reality? so there are many different scenarios to this. the 1st scenario is, of course we're looking at, from our perspective as nicholas had that would be legitimate under their article, $51.00 of the you on charge are. but um, does russia actually care how we proof of for perceive it and whether it's legitimate from the russian point of view, those air defense systems in romania will become a legitimate military target for the russians. so the question here is, what happened is the russians actually start destroying those air defense systems on romanian territory. how will need to act? will article 5 of collective self defense be invoked in such a scenario? and i think those are important questions to thanks for you. also in other point is just because we haven't seen any escalation and i know that put in have threatened

many times. um, it doesn't mean that he's not willing to use at least tactical nuclear weapons. and i think that is a signal here has been clear. so what would happen if he was to use tactical nuclear weapons, even interruptions, detriment would then nate or react and kind before look at at nato. having nuclear weapons, friends has its own nuclear weapons. some are stationed in drew. many of those are us. what would happen in such a scenario? how would need to act? and the more a strategic question is, is it going to essentially help you create? and because that's only one part of the equation, protecting that era space because you cannot protect all of ukrainian territory, was those areas defense systems. and of course, and technical terms. you can and weight air defenses or russian missiles could potentially weight your defensive, such as air cruise missiles. or we're seeing that difficulties with

a new fads which are all fitted was an electromagnetic warfare kit. to, to make them much more difficult to injure south than to detect. so the question is, is it going to make a huge difference? all right, let's pick it up there with a vladimir and get some, some final thoughts. your view on what marina has just said, look, the worst parts are fighting on this for us. that's not the rest of the video. create their worst parts in the, in the east, on the front line. and this air defense system from your main, you know, folding on or the night, the accounts are real, non type in any way to protect the kids. because it's not, it's the file from there and look ethics any, any thinking in the eastern part of it. okay. so it's a highly symbolical sense. it's highly provocative. staples 0. i agree with somebody in the strategic a consequence of this with the question the for us, i will ship this broken air defense system and not the countries how not that would go to react to this. i think it's stating that states even higher,

but i think it's a clearance the direct escalation between or us and many other countries. but it's very, it's very provocative in terms of media effect. just laugh thoughts and i will give you a chance to respond to there and also i'd love if you could tell us what lessons you think the west should take away when it's looking at these indicators we've discussed of put in the strategy going forward. i think we have to think along new ways and if we are continuing to be afraid of what is going on and put into mind, i'm afraid and we are not able to print against them. well, thank you very much for that. i'm very pleased to have this panel of guests with their insights today, 5 year supply of marina moran and eco long. i thank you so much for your insights and thank you at home for watching. if you're watching on youtube, but let us know what your thoughts in the comments and hope to see you next time the

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