what do you think? there is no in the commons, and don't forget to subscribe to our channel. the experts have been expecting a fresh russian offensive for a while now, but certainly not expecting to be shake up in russia's military leadership that we solve this week. who attends defense minister for the last 12 years survey show it goes in and out of the job and has been replaced by a civilian economist. what does that tell us about pretends that strategy and what really means for ukraine under compartment and losing ground in the region? it's northeast of hockey. there's, we've gone through the points of we're looking at for is for economy and discussing whether new military leadership will mobilize russia for a long and fights the

hello and welcome. i'm glad richardson in berlin and i'm thrilled to introduce our panel this week. we have a flat him here, yes. above officer and a journalist with dw me go with long a senior fellow at the munich security conference. and joining us today from your neck, maureen, i'm a run, a military analyst with kings college london. warm welcome to you all, read a after months of essentially stalemate. we're starting to see some movements again in the war and ukraine. russia making games in the north east. is this the new offensive that many analysts were expecting to take place this spring or summer as well? i will be very careful as to describe it as the actual offensive. i believe this is just a prelude to the offensive because what we're seeing now, obviously

a new front has been opened in the north in har keith. and there are some talks about the potential of su me enter need. he's also being attacked by russian forces . however, we see activity along the entire line of contact. so from my perspective, this is just a way that's why she's trying to gain a better position and more favorable position for itself in order to street. i'm afraid we just can't hear the last bit of what you're saying. so i would turn over to nico, just to pick this up. we have the united states top diplomat, anthony blinking in care of this week. and we know that one senior us official, basically acknowledge that this trip was to reassure the ukrainians. he said this was quote, a very difficult situation. can you read between the lines for us here? what is united states thinking about the situation? first of all, i would have preferred the secretary blinking to go to hockey if instead of playing

guitar in the club. and the situation is difficult also because the us took 6 months of a domestic discussions. most of them unrelated to your train at all to delay the necessary military assistance to ukraine. so there is some responsibility of to us and a difficult situation. the ukrainians know themselves that the situation is difficult . the question is what this done to help them, especially with ad defense, which seems to be the biggest problem for the equations and they are, i believe we have still not doing enough. and we will certainly come to that later in the show. but 1st flight, i'm here, you know, within russia we're also seeing big changes as well, boots and has been swapping people out of the top jobs in this re shuffle of the government. and i'm, i'm curious why we're seeing this now. even though it seems like things aren't going so badly for russia, whether it was expected for, for him to change something to make some changes in the government positions as over some of the presidential elections. so it was expected. they might be some

movements um, but besides the facts who lead state defense ministers, tribal elosa, for someone else as long as the volume important mistakes and powers in the russia, she is the only one who decides what's going on. on the general, on the general was the front. so we can say it's talking about the in terms of me that there is start to start to strengthen training the ukraine. but it did i some of stay some power sensitive chief over the russian unit. i'll stop, so she decides what's going on on the, on the mental health and the ukraine and the below sufficient. this is being described as pragmatic o professional economist. indeed. but as i mentioned all on already, 14 is the only one who, who is to decide in the general direction of the russian politics. okay, so we have food in, you know, in a way, keeping us guessing, with what has been the most significant change as to his military commander, since russia's full scale invasion of ukraine. and as we've hinted, even one of pollutants closest allies was not spared in this region awful. side by

side and good friends. that's how i'll show you who entreated and presented their relationship for years. 68 year old show who has ever seen the ministry of defense since 2012. his time in office. so the annexation of crimea adams, the invasion of ukraine. but he did not deliver what boots and had hoped for a quick capture of keys. now he is being replaced by the civilian and right below south boots in hopes that the form administered of economic development will provide a boost to the alms industry in particular and use that. so you, course military technology is changing very quickly, which if we want to be successful, we must always be one step ahead. we could see the definition i'm showing go his new position, the secretary of the national security council, replacing nikolai pa to shift also a long time alley of fruits. and what is patients?

a human restructuring, the military leadership academy . i'd like to talk a little bit more about showing go out of that job. do you think these are ghosts here of of you have danny for goes and the, and the wagner groups you for those who, who don't remember, he went after show you go hard. a year ago there was a viral video in which he was a strongly criticized. no gosh, so if you're doing it because you've been able to go into the history so it's, it's gone. so it's not, not, not public any anymore. and the replacement of a cycle my, they have technical reasons for us and by the big question is what, what's important once to achieve over the bill of and the question is it for us is going for the long cold war for a long war isn't mention can ukraine stand for a long core is isabel, is that our 2nd and is the most important questions for the rest of the public? because if the rest and the rest of society system congress wants to support to

gain the long war against trust. so you kind of need more support spend now? so let's take a little bit about his replacement then moreno. why do you think we're seeing food in a pointing a, a civilian, an economist, as his defense minister? well, i think that andre below sophie has done and very good job in his previous position . and it's certainly somebody who is more scientific and who is also oriented towards more speed control of the military industry. and if we're looking at the russia and see how it has behaved during this time since how it impacted the russian economy, we can see that the sanctions didn't achieve the desired effect meetings at whatever below. so who was doing? he was doing the right thing and so for put into perspective what he needs right now is somebody in the ministry of defense. he has somebody for the military, as has already been said, gruff mal remains in his position,

but he need somebody who understands economics and who is able to take care of the military. industrial complex, especially as a defense spending increases and to integrate it into the overall russian economy and ensure that it functions efficiently. also perhaps removing those layers of corruption or assembly years of corruption which were standing in the way of the proper and civil military cooperation and military innovation. because when you think of this, can bellows of clean up rushes, military complex and make it more efficient to thank us with us of all. and i believe so, it was also a civilian. i think he's coming from the emergency services, but he was never an expert in military mattress. and so i go and get him off. i mean, they have messed up this aggression against your crime. no military goals have been the chief even after 2 years. so from the fact that the same of is staying there,

i would draw the conclusion that loyalty is still more important than competence and put in has made this movement. no, but i would not start with the hypothesis that this would work. i mean, shall i go ahead and many deficits, but he is a very important part of the system put in for many years. and he was able to quickly turn and lot of resources around, especially when the initial phase of the invasion got botched. and russia had to go to other plans. um, so let's see if this really works and the russian war economy and to approach to this. i mean, we are hearing a lot about this and it seems to me, part of it, at least is information warfare. what i see is old tanks getting out of storage, being refurbished, being thrown to the better field and destroyed very quickly. so i think from a rest and point of view of, we should not be afraid of russia waging, waging a little more. we have enough resources if we want to add to juice russia and to do few train everything it's need, it needs and also the,

the efforts northwest of hawk. if a seems to me more like a supporting effort to, to information campaign. and they are competing target that it's the, getting the population in hockey if and maybe so you mentioned you have to leave the cities. but it's not something that way i would, i would suspect, serious military results from the russian side. but just to, just to make things clear, if i understand you correctly, you think this does indeed signal that brewton is digging in for a long war of attrition. and the fact that he's, he's an economist, does this not signal the fact that futon is trying to find someone who can really put the economy at the service of the defense industry to put in his digging in for a long war. i think that is clear since april may 2022, when the initial plan did not work out. but there's nothing to be afraid or from our point of, you know, military goes by the, on the roof of the russian side has been the chief so far and i think we can make

sure that also the new military goals will not be achieved. um, what i think is changing is that russia is more successful now in the information campaign and just trying to create a picture that it's hopeless to defend against restaurant i trust. i will be in the divorce academy is running and it seems that as impressing many people, including here in germany and invest in general, what i'm here is that also your opinion. do you think we should be afraid of valuable stuff and what he can do with the rest of the economy? yeah, that's useful. don't be afraid of the loss of not at all. and your son should be afraid of being not clear about your goals, because it's contradiction i signal so good and from a, from europe on the one side, there's a lot of talks about delivering folders to, to ukraine and delivering more reasons. and is it to face their energy? there is no thought has been evident through the ukraine. no more. the funds and ukraine facing the huge lake of manpower as well. so it's not only about people in

the system, so in the restroom, but the level of men power in the inside the ukraine, which is a problem, but what, what the night and the to consult for the okay. so it's a concerns return positions contradictory signals going going from the rest on the one site you're supporting your ukraine on the other side. no 3 this and this is what what, so the 1st so the face, bye bye, bye bye. the rest of the site, just okay, let's take a closer look at the situation in the northeast of ukraine. clearly, it is in a dangerous position here with russian forces pushing across it's north eastern border and taking over the past week controls more land every day than they have since the start of the war in the region. no, says car keys is under constant fire soldiers, i'll guessing the remaining people out of the homes, one off to the right. yeah. come on. let's go only take your document what

the they can only take the battery essentials, not knowing if and when they'll be able to return. in easton, ukraine lies vox chunks directly on the front line. it's not far from concave, which is home to millions of the ones. 19000 inhabitants, and the 500 remain. you line down and one the will. they killed me now in an hour. for those $500.00, it could now be the last charms to flee from the russian troops. the homeland has become the focal point of the current fighting. we drove through the city center. i can't see it without crying. everything is trembling with the russian army as testing the ukrainian resistance at several points that the front can the we can soldiers with stand the russian attacks.

so we have thousands of ukrainians evacuating from the heart, gave region. niko, many of them are reporting that this 2nd russian invasion is for them even worse. and the 1st one at the start of the war can tell us a little bit more about what you think we're seeing unfold here. of russia has been telegraphing this for a long time, the era text, and then you intensity on hawk, if and also pop the on. so me and showing you stopped at some weeks ago. so this was clear that this what would come and it's the right move by the ukrainians to evacuate. something village is to have a defense position somewhere deeper into the country and to defend there. but of course this will lead and to let it fall. the last day is for russia being seen as taken territory, but it took most of to, to re territory because you create a vector a to the villages. now that the rio defense started on your gradients sized ends, ukraine also put in reserves and use multi 5 positions. russia for the last 2 days

is having more difficulties, the suffering, very heavy losses. and i think russian has to decide now whether to put it in, in reserves to continue this would it continue with its plans to do a similar efforts in the so me region. but let's be clear here. this is the supporting f o to what is going on in general, and the russian to text me a chest. if y'all and other places in the east, they continue at the same time what is going on and stretching the ukrainian defense has been spreading. the ukraine and resources that is in effect, i think that russia is achieving marina, is that also what you think is going on here? put this into perspective for us as how do you think russian troops were able to advance so far and, and so quickly in the northeast, hold on under to i'm afraid we've got technical issues here again. so watermark, if you could, i'd ask you to jump in for that question too. what do you think happened?

what went wrong here and ukraine's defenses and looked at it as something went wrong because your brain is on the, on the limits because you're getting put to huge resources to the defense. lions in the front line was almost more than 1000 kilometer long. now we have a new piece of this is fighting against is and you conventions already. so ukraine faced, as i mentioned already, there, michael likes to open demand power in the more we from, from the front of the rest, more resources and more when power moment and as a, as in more, more troops on, on, on this, on this. and this is just another one problem for, for the okay, no government. so it is an empty council for this trip to europe. yesterday. she was supposed to go to spain and park it over to cancelled it on short notice because of this complicated situation on the front. so even if it's on the adjuster, actually informational law for, for it, what's most facing the card because it's being treated very seriously by the, by the president and asking, and indeed we even heard a ukrainian commander criticizing this as quoted at the terrible border defense as

marina, let's see if we can bring you back in here. what's your view, why ukrainian defense is warranted, better prepared. hey, there are many reasons for that. and we have seen that ukraine also has a problem of corruption as was a former defense minister resnick, of um, so i'm not sure what exactly happened. but apparently the defense is that were supposed to be constructed. haven't been constructed in, in, in the way expected. and so the logical thing that has been done by ukrainian troops is pulled back and let the russians enter. this is why we have seen this rapid line spies, the russian forces not with spending. of course, it has drawn the attention of the ukrainian command and the necessity to decide where to send the reinforcements. do we stay entrusted yard, or do we send them to heart? you? and i think that was a plan, old gas, or to divert the attention from more important directions. because if we look at

the map, what the russians are trying to do is that they're trying to cut off ukrainian trips and cuts through the grouping if they can get up to colorado, we'll still need of it. so i think that the idea here is to develop the breakthrough that they had in no true retina in west, off of the you've got in order to get them for his or west. and the point that i'm talking about specifically i saw it on skin from a tourist and hard to you've for now i think is more of a distraction because they just don't have the manpower and they're not going to commit resources to take both chance front of it do a frontal assault and group of chance or a frontal assault on hard to you. okay, so ultimately meant to spread that ukraine's forces. then you go, we've mentioned blinking was on that unannounced visit to cube this week. there he said, us weapons will make a real difference. where are these weapons? do you think? do you think so too? there are some of them are there and if they are they are, they make a real difference. and we can see that the new version of a tech a mess,

the ground based precision fire makes a difference on cry me. uh, that's the only a region where ukraine can still put some pressure on the russians and adjusted and very significant. i think a text that's being conducted there. so yes, u. s. weapons make a difference? still, blinking did not answer the question on. what is the strategy of the u. s. w a. d u . s. one to ukraine, helped to help ukraine to push russia or is it just this kind of slowed the recipe that divide house was receiving as a said to g? and i think on the one hand divide, how strategy of denying restaurant achieving as for him as has been a success. on the other hand, many in ukraine have to feeling the dripping off as a part is a recipe for a slow drip death for a few great. and i think it's up to the white house to make a different strategic choice. we hear that now and your package is formed immediately after this one. so maybe there is some speeding up. and jake set of

upside even alluded to highest speed of deliveries. but there is always a big difference between deliveries being announced and having a communicative effect. and deliver is really arriving to the troops in your crime . yeah, these things take time, don't they of why to me, or do you think reference taking advantage of this window where you kind of still waiting for delivery. so i've saluted because this is a deliberate a delay of many months or so huge the trash over. they will take advantage of this of this situation. absolutely, yes. yeah. and then you go and your chief of staff to a german defense minister from the conservative party and until 2022. and you've recently suggested that allies could protect the sky over ukraine from nato countries like romania like poland. can you tell us a little bit how that would work in your view? but we have for the defense systems at the eastern border of nature, which is also be simple enough to european union. and i think we should use them to

shut down any russian drones and missiles that are in range that will at least cover $70.00 to $90.00. given me just into aerospace in the western part of your train, it would free up ukraine and they have different assets that could be brought to hockey. if tiffany pro does that part easier, where they are, desperately need it. and so under, i'll take the $51.00 off to you in toronto, it's perfectly legit. liquor to do it. and we have seen that this kind of escal atory assumption that many hat in the west. it's just empirically not through. i mean, if the most qual has been sunk, if the, let's say, for the headquarters, it has been attacked by christmas side. so what are we afraid of? we should just do it. i mean, this is exactly the argument that some from the center last have made that it would be at school, a tory, a marina though i would like to get your view here because as we've said, it appears like there is some support for this idea of both within the german government and the opposition. what chances do you think a plan like that would actually have of becoming reality?

so there are many different scenarios to this. the 1st scenario is, of course we're looking at, from our perspective as nicholas had that would be legitimate under the article, $51.00 of the you on charge are, but does russia actually care how we proof of for procedure it and whether it's legitimate from the russian point of view, those air defense systems in romania will become a legitimate military target for the russians. so the question here is, what happened is the russians actually start destroying those air defense systems on romanian territory. how will need to act? will our ethical, 5 of collect, of self defense be involved in such a scenario? and i think those are important questions to thanks for you. also in other point is just because we haven't seen any escalation and i know that put in have threatened many times. it doesn't mean that he's not willing to use at least tactical nuclear

weapons, and i think that is a signal here has been clear. so what would happen if he was to use tactical nuclear weapons, even to russia's detriment, would then nate or react and kind before look at me to having nuclear weapons. friends has its own nuclear weapons. some are stationed in germany. those are us. what would happen in such a scenario? how would need to act? and the more a strategic question is, is it going to essentially help you create? and because that's only one part of the equation, protecting that era space because you cannot protect all of ukrainian territory, was those area defense systems. and of course, in technical terms, you can wait area defenses or russian missiles could potentially weight your defensive, such as their cruise missiles or we're seeing that difficulties was a new fads which are all fitted with an electromagnetic warfare kit to,

to make some, much more difficult to intercept and to detect. so the question is, is it going to make a huge difference? all right, let's pick it up there with a vladimir and get some, some final thoughts. your, if you want. marina has just said, look, the worst bar to fighting on this worse, that's nothing to invest with video. create their worst parts and in the east, on the front line. and these are different systems from your main, you know, folding on or the night they're comfortable, non type in any way to protect the kids. because it's not, it's the file from there and not of text any, any thinking in the eastern part of it. okay? so it's a highly symbolical sense. it's highly provocative. staples 0. i agree with marine the strategical consequence of this with the question the for us, i will ship this broken air defense system and not the countries how nothing would go to react to this. i think it's stating that states even higher, but i think it's a clearance. they do the direct escalation between or us and many other countries.

but it's very, it's very provocative in terms of media effect, just laugh, thoughts and eco, we'll give you a chance to respond to there. and also i'd love if you could tell us what lessons you think the west should take away when it's looking at these indicators. we've discussed of put in the strategy going forward. i think we have to think along new ways and if we are continuing to be afraid of what is going on and put into mind, i'm afraid and we're not able to bring against him. well, thank you very much for that. i'm very pleased to have this panel of guess with our insights. today we're at the pub marina moran and eco long. i thank you so much for your insights and thank you at home for watching. if you're watching on youtube, but let us know what your thoughts and the comments and hope to see you next time the,

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