[000:00:00;00] the the, the hello and welcome to ask the w on youtube. i'm feel gale and this is a show where your questions take center stage. today it's all about the recent death of uranium present abraham, right? you see that how they come to crash and how this is likely to impact iran and the middle east dining buys. take your questions and comments, and a couple of minutes is come around at my tea. is a senior electra, an international politics at the university of sussex in the okay. well, huge crowds gathered into her on today for president rice is a funeral procession along with a rounds foreign minister. he and several others were killed on sunday in

a helicopter crash. you know the board with as a buyer's john remaining and he says it's investigating the incident state media reported to technical finally it was to blame for the crash. c c how to state funeral heavy with symbolism? the black turban to the top of president taper. he, maurice, he's coughing the marking him as a descent into the prophet mohammed is and the richest bearer of power. the millions of mourners reportedly turned out. not all of them by choice, with some 2 round residence, saying they received phone messages, urging them to join the funeral procession. to many iranians, right, you see will be remembered as the butcher of t. ron, a member of the so called death panel, which sent thousands of political prisoners to their death decades ago. and more

recently had the leader who oversaw the brutal repression of women and a freedom movement that sweat the country. it's the fact that he was associated with the loss of crackdowns with uh, with um, you know, execution of the urena physicians in the eighty's when he was the public prosecute in the wrong. and the fact that he was very close to the supreme need. i really that didn't help his case, so i don't think there is a widespread sense of grief. the funeral also provided a glimpse of the smile honey. a widely regarded as the highest official in her moss, the palestinian militant crew that iran has funded and armed during its war with israel balls. the experts say runs influence in the region will not be effected by the death of its president. i very much doubt that the uranium regime we've changed course, given the advanced level of it's next era program which gets it sees as a bargaining kind of chip in, in negotiations with the west,

with the reform is completely out of the system. a direction by definition has shifted to the to the a kind of right man. abraham or i, you see was widely seen as a potential successor to we run supreme leader. i told him in a no, no, no, no matter who succeeds him, it seems unlikely they'll change the course of the nation, lead by religious hardliners. so that's where we offer the next half hour. also looking at the implications of the desk of iran's form at present, you saw him at in that report to john does not come round to maxine who elect has an international politics of the university of sussex. questions in the solution of ask a d w, just problem in the comments and from you to us. ok, so come on my thing. welcome back to d w. let's start with the funeral. lots of people think massive crowds that attending today's that procession. how much of this that we believe to be genuine,

sympathy, and how much staged good evening, thanks for having me. well, i mean, i grew up into the run and i went to school on university in iran, in the eighty's and ninety's. and my experience was that, you know, students were forced to actually to attend these states staged ceremonies. if you didn't, you wouldn't be reprimanded even your ability to go to university late tron was compromised because people were actually invented by special commissions to be approved for actually even being able to study as university. so things might have changed enough to go to a little bit, but i don't think the basic principle has changed at iranian state uses, is paola and especially it's a state employees, people in the public sector are forced to attend these ceremonies. and in addition to that, i mean, if you look at the exl pharma tweets or other social media outlets, you will see that many range and users actually use different methods to show the

way in which the uranium state tv actually exaggerates the number of people attending and in many cases as several times and people are, you know, represented as if there are tens of thousands of people. but in any case, i mean, you're on is more than 18000000 population. and there was, in definitely has a certain percentage of population, you know, supporting is around 1015 percent. that's the best estimates. so they, we should be able to, you know, bring enough people to, to feel these squares and strays for, for such a day. okay. so that gets us off nicely way next for era, and that's what we're looking at to over the next to how far with special guest come around my team getting in touch in the comments as matthew has done a massive, as honest with your writing and government dealing with right, you see that death could we see arise, an anti government protest? i like we sold with v and a huge on protest. i mean the, these protests and the wrong are not quite predictable,

possibly because there is no guys leadership. and this lack of organized leadership is both a kind of, it's a double edged sword. on the one hand, it makes you know, of suppressing protest or suppressing dissenting. they're on difficult over long periods of time. but it also means that it's, it's more difficult to organize it in a strategic way to, to kind of track the government when it's a, there's a, it is that it's weak points such as this of this car. and the story is not clear, you know, whether that would be process or not. the, the latest round of nationwide protests which began in september 2020 to following the, the, the stage manager i will describe of gene on my side. i mean, is a goodness girl. who was killed into run a fully, you know, was, was for the or press the last year. so people are still reading from extremely violent repression of district security establishment during that period of,

of protest. but we have to see what happens during the run up to the elections, which must take place constitutionally within 50 days. and depending on how the state is going to organize these selections, if it allows potentially some level of competition, people might use those possibilities during the campaign to, to protest. but i'm not going to ultimate think that the actually a racing will open up this stage for um, for house the competition even within the establishment itself. that is to say, a competition between reform is and the so called principal as the 2 main factions within this, let me go public. so when should we start getting in indications as to what is likely who the likely run isn't right? is ought to be to re fold the post of a rating and president will, do you expect a competition or will that be a selection as well? there will be an election across additionally,

the election has to be heavy held. but the, the issue is that in the wrong, even though the system on paper is a republican political system, but there are on the elected body's most important though, which is a budget calls the costs of guardians at 12 members by the which is whose members are appointed by the supreme leader, and this by the, basically with every single candidates or any office in the country. so in that sense, the, you know, candidates par selected before hand. so only people can spending the elections, which are pre approved by the system. it says in that sense the, the composition is, is very much engineers and controls in the past decades hop 256 years ago when moderates of t goes or a form is weren't able to take part in elections. you could see some sort of competition within the system, which is, you know,

i cannot make the describe as competitive authoritarianism. but since the, this is the time racy, actually one elections refer me. so i completely excluded from the, from the system, from the political system as even the moderates, principalities, such as a role honey. the next president who, over so the need certainly go stations and the, you know, the, the, or on the key or deals where actually disqualified from participating in parliamentary elections as well as the presidential elections. so we'd have to see whether you know, to, to what we, who is the allowed even to spence or the elections, the current, or rather the diploma. speaking of parliament mohammed father probably bust a form, a general in ohio gc. and over there she goes to his tips as one of the potential candidates. he has extensive links within the establishment of the supreme leader and to are able to say gods. but i'm sure there will be more than one candidate. so

then with that has to be somewhere as semblance of, of competition during the election. okay. so that has to, that will be a sort of a pre selection process. and one of the things that i, i've heard sad over the last few days about the, the death of the presidency as well. it really doesn't matter because i a tell a how many is the big boss. he will be side, was he was, he will be side the countries direction, the president is mainly his face, his presence amongst the politicians. so nothing really changes as well. there is a lot of truth to this reservation because the iranian constitution recognizes the office of supreme lead, the which is cartons now to the hominy. having a overarching powerful are full. the father powers, which supposedly should be independent, such as the traditional religious legislative body, which is the parliament,

the iranian, and much less, i'm the presidency. so these, these bodies, including the presidency, have limited powers. and whenever the supreme me that the size actually he can override them and it has use this pile of time. and again, in those 3, all of your honestly instead of a dish and 979. and therefore, the constitution has become a battle ground both within the establishment when the reform is wanted to um, fully implemented or even put into a friend them to be amended and so on. and also the position which is the constitution as the basis of authoritarianism, which is basically sustained by brute force of a security in the ministry establishment at times when you have had a independent minded presidents such as cos, i mean, or to some extent, real handy who could use their limited power to negotiate and you know, how go with the supremely, the, you could see such

a level of kind of differentiation politically within the state. but even that little assembling. so, you know, competitive politics has, has gone over the last decade. oh, so, and especially seems the so called green movement of 2009, which was brought to the repressed by the by this is let me go public at the time. so in a fact to us how the company has an absolute power that he has an absolute power, but he also needs a certain level of support, but especially with the security and minutes reestablishment. and that's the base of power as high as you see, combinations his own accession to supreme leadership has systematically cultivated relations. we die obviously supported them. and there is a huge amounts of economic interests involved. if you see using the sanctions to create a power level economy domain,

i think more than one size of your writing and economy even more on the, you know, on the dollar homes or run by institutions which are directly working directly related to the supreme either. so while he's a has enormous power, but he does also, um, you know, needs some sort of negotiation with hi. are you seeing a particular which has, has you know, the military and economic power, which is unrivalled in any, any stage in the middle east or beyond? but in the end of the day, yes, constitutionally supremely, that has all the power in his hand. i need to count, he can, especially in major policy, such as foreign policy, domestic and national security policy. he has the law say on these policies. ok, camera, nothing is a guest on us. get d w at that he lectures in international politics at the university of sussex in the united kingdom. in the next few minutes, we're looking up where next for iran, given the death of a president, right?

see if he questions or comments, i put them in the comments books here at a d dot on dw youtube. a question that's coming up for you. let's talk about the, the power dynamics within the regime because we're outside it often seems that so when we talk about the radian racing, that often seems as though they act as a block. so we'll talk about that. the question is, how do i, who do you think is the most likely successor and took us through the power dynamics within the regime, or at least a question of success and profess to the supreme leave the technically on, according to the constitution, there is a, a bother you call assembly of textbooks whose members are elected in elections. but as i mentioned earlier, the people who spend for elections to that body themselves are selected. the time

has to be approved. run by the council of guardians, whose members are appointed by, you know, incumbent supreme leave the so only people get into that assembly who are approved by your leader himself. and those people are supposed to choose who is going to succeed him. so that the token, the run has been for, for us these past 2 decades, that combinations of save us his own son. most of us are many a to succeed him. but there are also some concerns within their own seem itself that this would give the impression of a head. right? that's right, right. and similar to them on our to us and she sent me a little bit of some toppled so that, so that's the, this is a native of that. like, let's keep it to the, to the president at phone now. until close to the power blocks the the, the the who is vying behind the scenes to replace the uh, the, the,

the, the, the full. i'm a president or um, well the, as i mentioned earlier, the, the, the depaula months. you're an impala months time offended recently. new parliament has been, you know, go right, said, but the new speaker has not been selected or other electives within the parliament . but they did the speaker for the last term of that parliament is a person called my my brother finally boss who has been a speaker of the parliament for some years and he has a long history of associations. he was a senior general within the gc and he's close a seam seemed to be too close to, to uh, to the hominy. so he is there almost have it that he, he will spend in his elections. he has stood for presidential elections in the past . he has never actually gains um, you know, any, any number of considerable number of votes in the elections, but he might try his,

his luck this time as well. there's another form or i obviously come on the most and was a who has also stood in presidential elections in the past. he might try again. so since then the image we get is that basically people close to accommodate fans with close ties to aisle g. c will probably stand, i'm sure they will allow some civilians also to stand just to give this semblance of some sort of competitive elections. but i very much doubt that there won't be anyone who will, you know, who might coast surprises for the regime at this particular time when, because of economic sanctions in specialized relation, the water in the middle east and so on, there was even finds the hymns itself quite walner, but especially following the nationwide protest instead of in 2022. okay. i'm glad you've given, given you've widened this out for us because i next question concerns the political

implications of iran's internal political instability on the broad, the geo political dynamics in the middle east, particularly regarding relations with saudi arabia and israel. as the question from tyler has he asked the w and i, i think ron will continue. it's current course in terms of foreign policy, largely because foreign policy, as i mentioned earlier, it is really determines, has to be seen as broad and basic outlined by the supremely the gc. and they have decided that's one way of dealing with us treasury, it's really economic sanctions and diplomatic as a nation is to kind of undergo some sort of rep for some on with the regional states with which they have had quite, you know, unstable and intentional problem. relations especially so their idea and as your viewers might remember, china kind of

a mediation between the ronald's held your ideas or relations have been homeless. and i doubt to your on wants to change that does patton, at this particular time. so basically as let me go public wants to continue its support for its proxy forces, which it describes as excess of resistance from us as bullet who stays in yemen without causing a direct and outright kind of conflict with hide united states or is room know, maintaining this is, this balance is difficult, but it's iran has tried to do so and been an iran has been able to do so. largely because united states also wants to avoid that direct conflict with iran, especially in the run up to the presidential elections in united states. itself, but it's in november elections and us a tunnel from wins. he's known for his hotline, against iran. so that's might change the equation quite

a significantly. and so a lot depends on that elections, as well as, you know, the way in which the, the watering does, uh, develops if it's spreads to lebanon. for example. iran is likely to back is the less the source. and that's also involves the danger of iran being directly implicates as in conflict and therefore a why the war might erupt as so it is summary, i don't think you're on with change. it's foreign policy in a significant way, just because a present racy as has died in this crash. but developments outside the around might actually uh for see around to also um, you know, um update his policy in the region. okay. so likely no change and its, and its, and its relations certainly with israel a but unlikely with uh they, it's near neighbors. how about looking further ahead?

we got another question here for you. a camera on my team from the the university of sussex is that on houses in the soda codes and abraham right uses that, that could be slowed down or even stopped the support iran has been giving a to poach and that's from philip. both stopped i very much doubt so because i'm in a ways mine make republic in the last 44 or 5 years and since its inception has, has these, you know, has failed to pop up on, on crisis. and when there is no crisis, actually they try to manufacture one because it allows them to justify internal oppression. it's uses this external crises to riley some people around the flag if you like, you know, use their up, national, the sentiments and so on. and because the wrong is in this kind of impasse

with the west over it's next project. and because of the sanctions, uranium of foreign policy has been strategically reoriented towards the russia and china, the 2 patrons of islamic republic. so in some ways, if you look at this, the warning ukraine from uranium perspective, the more the west is implicates of, i'm kind of but down in ukraine because of its reliance on west and that new suppose in its defense against russian aggression, the less likely that the united states under westwood puts, you know, extra pressure on the wrong or with contemplates, i don't know ministry solution, for example, to uranium. you accept projects and so on. so here on, does benefit from continuation of that war and in potentially the benefits from russia's success in that war. so iran would continue supporting russia in, in any way you can find this. there is a, you know,

deal with the west overnight and it's a project. and why that kind of a deal of original policies and regional issues. that is extremely unlikely with the current regime in iran and in the foreseeable future. the but you know, things can quickly changing, authoritarian regimes and it rang and state was at the moment. seems strong and stay but, but it's extremely brittle because it doesn't have a social support within the room. so i'm on the point. is there any way of, of, know, and where the public eye is on perhaps hoping for or expecting a change with a change of, of president, or do they do they simply in the writing and context know that they just have to deal with whatever it is i get and unfortunately the last one is the case and if you look at the records of people's participation in the elections over the last decade or so,

you will see that they kind of systematically and progressively diminish. so that means that people have lost hope in the institutions of the state. and in the fact that that's traditional reform is where it says hotline is kind of backup good comp kind of situation. he's able to deliver anything to them, it comically or, or politically or socially even. i mean, i mean, terms of women's rights for example. and, you know, did the did process against compulsory veiling which interrupted in 2022 and was arguably the, you know, the, the most serious a challenge to these i make republic since 1979 was driven by the, by the fact that there was in was unable or unwilling to compromise, even on the uh, you know, on the social and cultural issues. that's, that on, on the, you know, major political issues. so i predict

a very low turn out in the elections, and that's will just show that there was even, has resigned to the fact that it has a smoke census of people supporting it and only focuses on that percentage to be on the streets when, when is needs them, you know, for example, today and is a funeral saturday. okay, so on the, on a, what's almost the final point then we'll have 5 days of a funeral. we'll have an election at sometime within the next step, 50 days. give us something to, to look out for what should we be looking out for in this, this, in this, in this interregnum in this uncertain period? and i believe after the funeral is over. uh, this, this sir, i'm gonna use this 5 days a morning. um it basically they open the um, the election kinds of content. but games and people begin to register for,

for participation in is depending on which candidates are eventually approved to, to stand for the office. one could have a picture of what the, what the regime is thinking basically. and the characters of those individuals, their relations with the supremely, the, unless it allows you see, will tell us a lot about the likely course of the new presidency. and these allow me to probably go with the next few years. okay, so lots of, uh, the international community, focusing its eyes on iran over the next a couple of months. so thanks very much. i come run my team for sharing your insights and experiences with us and to think it was especially those besides the questions. thank you for your actually participate. participation. thank you. camera i asked a dw is possible for genuine dialogue and understanding will look at the big issues of the day. i'm told to experts with you about that. stay tuned up next on dw, we have a series of looking at the women turning their personal grief into action. so if you've got, you can get all the bases,

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d. w. conflicts with sim sebastian, the chief prosecutor as the international criminal court has surgery, seeking a rest, suarez for his radiators for the coming back to the war in gaza. my guess is week from kind of leave is dennis ross form especially the system to president obama and for more than 12 years. the key prior to shaping us policy conflict into oh is on d. w. people in trucks, engine. i was trying to see the city center the straight pieces explains the

around the world more than 150000000 people. we of mine because no one should have to make up your own mind dw, may for mine's the. the no one use a visa to live in the arctic archipelago of sound body, but it is no legion territory from the government side. they want this to be a new region to meet families, so sorry, foreigners feel ostracized. then they a and other local politicians don't care about my problems because i context for them real small but remain an open society in the future.

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