the impact was the biggest change doesn't have the make up your own mind. maybe the is really prime minister benjamin netanyahu is under pressure to support a new truce and hostage release plan. the plan was tabled by the us israel's closest ally as an is really endorsed roadmap for an enduring ceasefire to the conflict that has been raging since the 7th of october attacked by the terrible co . how boss, that's on yahoo, labeled the plan, a non starter, and is this the israel will keep fighting until her mazda is eliminated? yet he faces increasing, pushed back the international criminal courts. indictment is just one sign of rising international opprobrium. tens of thousands of protesters in israel have

riley to demand that. you know, i was step down today we're asking organ garza is israel ever more isolated the hello and welcome to to the point. it is my pleasure to greet our guests. run a inch tank is a reporter and call them just for the german daily, the suit door to the side tongue. marcus bitco has the security table with a focus on the middle east of the online in depth briefing surface table media. and it's great to welcome tristan hell back back to the show. she's an independent author and journalist with extensive experience in the middle east. so an all german panel this week to get a perspective from here in the heart of europe and running. if somebody,

let me start with you and ask you to talk a little bit about the current situation. as i mentioned, joe biden claims that this plan was endorsed and devised by israel and yet, and that's on yahoo has not exactly embraced it. what chances would you give this plan of succeeding where so many others have failed? well, joe biden is able to direct as well, with something very substantial with that, and with pulling back the support, which is so essential to israel security. so even though nothing now is reluctant and many in his coalition, that even more reluctant to stop the fighting, the left with the choice, but to cave, to the pressure from washington. and we want to talk a little bit later about that us support and how far it goes. kristen international frustration with now ton yahoo and with the is really campaign faced a spike after. and you and these really are strike, hit a can't camp in boffin killed 45,

a displaced people. what exactly is the current situation now in guys and rough? uh, what are you hearing? the situation is devastating and re a healing even more attacks. the idea of the is what any army saying that they are attacking they are going against how must militants and they are killing. how much fight does on a regular basis. but at the same time, the a lot of civilians being killed in these attacks. we have been dozens of victims among civilians and this is the whole questions about the question. how is this well being that we have hunger crisis that is intensifying because the crossing that off crossing keeps to be closed often is way to military control of this. so everything goes into another crossing chem shalom crossing. and we see that even if the minute to it gets in, which has dropped a lot during the last few weeks, even when it's gets in, it's very difficult to distribute it due to a lack of fuel and due to a lack of security for are you going to to an equal concern is that,

so the situation is even more catastrophic and devastating than ever before. i think markets, as i mentioned, nets on yahoo has said that he will keep the campaign going despite the pressure until the turn group come, us is eliminated. in other words, he is looking to keep the military option open. how compatible is that with this ceasefire? a plan, would it allow him some room to maneuver? yes, it does allow him room to mendoza and his main name to the luminous come us as a military organization and as an organization which is able to rule gaza. that includes the military option. and i think in the long run and the time you or no is really government prime minister, whosoever will not give up the, the right to intervene in gaza at any time of the conflict. so even if there is

a ceasefire or a piece solution in the long run, as well as in the westbank widths and forces in to fight terrorism. so let's take a closer look at this 3 phase plan. it promises an end to the conflict, the release of the hostages and reconstruction of palestinian territory. and it comes at a time when is we just heard the situation in guys is increasingly dire, as is the desperation of israelis pleading for the return of family members. still being held hostage, 8 months of will and the humanitarian crisis in the cause of strip, the people are suffering and they wish for only one thing. the ability of is from outside understood that we pray to god for us to use taya we have lost. so much i've been looking, we have lost all of our loved ones, we have nothing left but what we need a ceasefire a. we have some broken and humiliated digital and i have that now. and then a few days ago us president boynton presented

a peace plan for cause on time to begin this new stage. hostages to come home for 0 to be secure in the shop for you to stop this time for this war 2. and the day after the plan has phases, beginning with the ceasefire, followed by the release of hostages, and ultimately leading to the rebuilding of the destroyed gaza strip. and the vital initiative bring peace to the region. let me put that question to run and then also ask you to unpack the 3 phases of this plan. if you would briefly and tell us where you see the biggest challenges, especially in regard to the transition from the temporary cease fire to the full cessation of hostilities, how workable is that transition going to be given?

and that's when you, off of his desire to hang onto the military option. so i think peace is a very big wood. let's imagine this time goes to what is how i was going to do, how much is going to be allowed to regroup, to retreat, to re um themselves, and to stage the next attack on his ro, an other 2 or 3 years out. they have done in the past in the past 20 years, whatever they were defeated and they were allowed to continue to route and gaza and to smuggle arms into the gaza strip. so this is the, i would say positive outlook that i can connect to this and to this deal. and what does it mean for israel, for it? so this is not a, a perspective of piece. this is a perspective of continuing such as quote, which is increasing untenable for these very society. so i can understand that from an israeli government perspective, it's very difficult to agree to this deal. what i kinda understand or what i think also bass. uh, also is with a highlighting is why how mouse is not jumping and celebrating this chance because

all they have to do to get this incredibly positive deal for them is to let hostages out. children civilians were in some dock sellers in the gaza strip crying for the mothers at night. something that is on condition to go to all palestinians also. and that just shows you what kind of a criminal organization they are with disregard to the life of their own population and that of any other country. kristen yeah, a place react to that a bite and actually claims that is really campaign has already a chief. what is set out to do namely rendered him mouse incapable of launching another attack similar to october 7th. but ronan says, well, they're just going to use this 1st phase or a 2nd. even the 1st and 2nd phases and plan to regroup and get ready to act again. would you agree with that or do you think find this right? no, i mean we definitely agree on the nature of home of this, no doubt about it, but we are seeing that this war and the way it is that does not lead to

a defeat of from us. we are seeing that for 8 months. is this a of total victory is not working out because whenever the sweat unit on withdrawals from an area within garza that it had just kept, it almost is regrouping. so it's not going to work like this. how much has to be kept away from power? it has to be be militarized by political means, and what time mazda is asking in this deal is a permanent ceasefire, an end to this war. and this is basically what most of the world wants to get. this is what put it in by himself since we need an end to this war at this time because it's not working all the time. so i would argue with that, yes, it's time to. and the crucial point is, how do we get from phase one to face 2 because face one says, let's free the female and children hostages and the elderly, and then talk about whether they will be a permanent sci fi later on how most of saying, we will not agree to release any hostages for both the guarantee by the us to stump

this war. definitely and, and permanency. so this is the whole point and i think that right now within the is really public and it's according to the families of the hostages, especially the pressure is really mounting on natania. i want to say, okay, we have to give everything we have to give in because the priority now has to be the hostages. especially given the fact that there has been some depth of bodies of the hostages of has been found within gods. and so the pressure is mounting, and i think the only way to stop this is to agree to a permanent sci fi and then to dismantle from us and find a solution for post war causes on how you dismantle them. if you don't, we can talk about the c withdrawal, which is the plan if you withdrawal from these randy ministry with go from the gaza strip. how'd you dismantle them to turn the tape and stuff? okay. well, let me get back and say, yeah, let me get my way in here. be a tie breaker, as it were, is dismantling her mouse more of a political question than it is a military one. we've seen that israel says that it has now successfully gained

operational control of the 14 kilometer long. i believe it is quarter between guys that in egypt after having destroyed many terrible organization tunnels, there. would you say that in fact, does confirm biden's claim that at least temporarily for some amount of time how mazda is no longer able to perpetrate military attacks? and does that then provide a basis for moving toward a political solution? i don't think we are anywhere close to see how much dismantled militarily and i think the dispute, if this cease fire is going to be temporary or permanent, is in the center of all discussions. if this 3 phase plan can come to lang longer political solution. so i think it's also important to see that the israeli government is all about the monolithic block. and if you listen to some of

the vices from the israeli defense forces, they differentiate between the stopping, how much from being able to govern casa and from defeating it military completely. so i think yes, you can reach the point that time us will not be able to govern guys up. but that the piece plan or the, the phase plan on the table. right? well, you will not reach a complete military defeat of how much are learned, how monolithic is the israeli government really we see to right wing ministers threatening to walk out isn't that on yahoo does agree to the cease fire plan. on the other hand, we also see a somewhat more moderate and very popular politician benny gans saying that he is going to walk out if there is not a clear plan for how to govern guys it by june 8th. so again, very,

very much nothing yahoo under pressure here also from within his own coalition, as usual, i would say is really public. there are 2 roads that you can go down. one road is to say, let's, let's not listen to the americans. let's go down the road we wanted to go down and carry on until we please that we've a sufficiently beaten moss. this will take forever. this is not something that you can have a rich. this is probably what the majority of these really public wants. it's. i think too easy to say it's only the right wing is i think it's the majority of these ready society who says we will never be able to sleep. we will never be able to relax, knowing that there is this terrorist entity waiting for the next chance to get back out on next. and the other road that you can to go down is um to uh, to uh, if you and if you, if you disagree with the americans and they will withdraw the ministry support and then the security will collapse. so there's not like there's not one good way to go

. and given that dilemma, i think that's when y'all in these really public is not left with a choice. if the americans are going to pull the plug and they're gonna stop the ministry support, which is the threat that's on the table, as you have to listen to that, otherwise you're going to be completely alone. then let's talk about that american support, a marcus the table. it wasn't a piece by you, but one of your colleagues recently attributed kansas decision to prep threaten to break up with net on yahoo to american foreign policy. and i'd like to know why you see this in that context, and also how far you think by them would go clearly by and is now trying to express some disappointment with his very close friend b, b. but do you really think that the current disappointment in washington could lead to a real cut off of crucial arm supplies? if you look back at the law in the to the last 8 months,

the americans were staunchly supporting israel. there's been a delivery of arms which has not been delivered, but ever since then. arms kept on going to is right. but of course it's the leverage from the american side to threaten to stop the security support for is ro talking about guns. the west, including the german government, is desperately looking for an alternative to net on y'all and benny guns was this man. but looking back in the past, then the guns is not that popular in this world as he is sometimes pauses to be. he has been in the government, this natania or even the over for those elections. he said, i've never gotten a go into a condition within that time. you know, so that's a bit the, the situation we have on that issue. so domestic politics a, suggesting that this moment might be opportune for guns, given the fact that there is this rising pressure on nothing. yahoo, yes, but let's see what happens after june. 8th,

i have my doubts that guns will really leave the war cabinet. meanwhile, guns is condition, sorry, that met perhaps just one point to that against this condition. here. a workable long term plan for can of an and gaza is not exactly something you come up with overnight. what might a credible governance structure look like? you've said the only way to really cut off from us is to find workable governance. that doesn't include the tara ization and this is something that not only been events, but the idea of the most talk. the secuity provides us within this one is asking this government to deliver, and the u. s. has been asking this for months. so this is really the big critical point against natania into the give us a vision because fighting with all the political strategy is not leading anywhere. so what the idea is that is why i cannot stay there forever as a military power. this is what, but rather come into still spin via it's mostly to dream about. they want to resettle goes on,

but this is not what the military and other political leaders are ending at. so the idea is who feels the back to him back to once these really ami withdrawals and it has to be some kind of palestinian entity that has been a lot of talks about the depth of the government of technocrats. it has to be without any how most people, obviously the p a, the palestinian authority would be the, the entity that should be this leading this, but it has to be reformed. it has to be more credible, testified corruption. this is where the european union and the other arab states come in to forces and that has been talks going on between different countries in the region who try exactly this. so the idea is that if you have a pet of sending an entity taking over that is being supported from outside by the u. s. that multinational force consisting of different arab nations, the europeans, and obviously the u. s. that have to guarantee the security of his right because it's really the only way to withdrawal. whenever the u. s. can guarantee that there

will be no danger coming out of concepts. so this is the short term roadmap for the arabs to go into this to work with this. they have to make sure that there's a long term perspective for posting in state for some kind of collecting the sovereignty otherwise. so that would not be ready to go in there and just work as the police force, as far as any occupation or security control. and you mentioned the countries in the region. in fact, meanwhile the us is also now trying to revive the prospect of and is really saw the normalization deal error. countries have, in fact been criticized for a response to the crisis that is considered by some of our servers to be largely symbolic and rather feeble. could the same be said of other international actors. now putting pressure on netanyahu. let's take a closer look is really prime minister ness and y'all who is coming on the increasing pressure more and more countries are criticizing the eastern in the all nice of the actions. and the goal is to strip randy price. the chief prosecutor of

the international criminal court recently requested arrest warrants were ness. and y'all, who am to mass leaders, the accusations against miss on yahoo, the liberal rest attacks on the civilian population. and using starvation as a weapon of war in the gaza strip charges against him off include will crimes and crimes against humanity. additionally, an increasing number of e u countries now recognized how to sign as a state most recent least moving the spain island a new way had also just taken the step in order to support a 2 state solution. and the region domestically mentioned y'all who is also facing increasing pressure the fall right to politician and coalition, pointing to each time i've been re a threatens to break up the coalition. if nothing you all who agrees to his ceasefire opposition lead up any guns who is also a member of the world cabinet, is calling for new elections and resistances will serve growing among the

population. tens of thousands of his writing, these all taking to the st. demanding the release of hostages and the quick resignation of the head of government. how isolated is this on yahoo? so let me put that question to you, marcus. how isolated isn't that on yahoo at the moment and does international pressure really matter to him given that he is fighting for his political survival at home? of course, he's under pressure of major international. you and institutions face the confrontation to is rarely politics. you have the eyes to see which is the, the, the deciding about issuing arrest warrants against the time, you know, against the defense minister gallano, also against thomas leaders. you've had the recognition of the states to so called state of palestine by more than 140 states, which increases the isolation. and um,

the question, how is well, is going to get out of that with the united nations facing it. so director is the one which would be decided in the coming weeks run, and i know you have a legal background. so let me ask you to take us on a deeper dive in regard both to the international criminal court arrest warrants and also the international court of justice is ruling that is real. must hold any military offensive in rafa that could harm civilians directly do these charges and the ruling have merit. so the question is, it's doubtful whether the claim of genocide has merits the claim of genocide, which was raised by the south africa and brought to the international court of justice and the hague. the court of justice has not yet found that out. they have used this opportunity to um, warn israel from a disproportionate tax,

but they've not decided on the merits of genocide. and i think is very doubtful that they will in the end say this a genocide because against humanity, crimes against humanity, probably also doubtful. war crimes. yes. and the international criminal court, which is a lot more precise and a lot more has a higher threshold, intuitively, has decided to level accusations against both these riley and the mosque leadership of essentially war crimes using methods of war which are in equal. it's then i'm claiming that is what does not have the right to self defense in to the opposite. they are explicitly reinforcing that is what has this, right? but this thing, even if you have a just cause for war, this is not justify every method. so one method that they're pointing out is hunger, whatever your goals are in a war, it never can justify it. letting a, stopping the shipment of food and water, and electricity to uh, to have somebody population. and that's putting pressure on people who it's not,

not that choice of their own to be and this was on. so to give you a, just a brief um outlook. the judges of the international criminal court will decide in a few weeks whether they will issue the arrest warrants against both. they have asked me to ship end of the time. yeah. and kalonde and i think it's very likely that they will agree to an issue. these arrest warrants meeting that's missing now, and kalonde will never be able to travel to europe ever again. kristen, how do you see the political impact of these 2 international, a court decisions, or at least of the prospect of the arrest warrants on the one hand and the ruling about how israel should prosecute its military campaign on the other? are they largely symbolic? could they even reinforce the intransigence of nathan yahoo and his government as well? i think what we have to discuss right now is what these international costs are

trying to do is to change the situation within garza. it's not about defining. do we have a general side or not? it's about how to prevent the generals. i could possibly have them. so this is behind the id. the id is how to implement international humanitarian law against whoever breaks it via a democratically elected leadership, the dictatorship, the, the totes group. so this was important to discuss. it's not about pressure being a and is by any government or i'm discrediting is way as a state it's about implementing international humanitarian law. as far as the to the courts. we are talking about about the recognition of palestine. this is obviously it's symbolic, but i think it comes out of the idea that we fall with the 7th of october of this horrible crimes committed there. that we cannot go back to a situation before where we just neglected the whole subject. we have to understand that we don't opinion state and some kind of 70 a life will put

a student is in dignity in a, in freedom that will not be an addition to this conflict. and the idea of countries like island or spain is to stress this, that these people on know these countries are committed to this twisted solution that for a tour long time has just been held up as some kind of you know, declaration without doing anything to implement. this, so this is a major step and it's the symbolic. so it's a signal as low to the pen of thing is to not give up hope and to believe in some kind of political solution to prevent taurus crimes that we just focus last question. very brief answer if you would our title ass whether is real, has ever more isolated, would you say increasing isolation will make a difference in getting us closer to association of the conflict? i don't think so. i think with germany under us, the spending so closely on his ro side, i think they will get out of this situation despite the recognition of palestine and the court decisions which we have talked. thank you very much to all of you for

being with us and thanks to all of you out there for tutoring in look at our website and tell us what you think see through the

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