to figure out what's the real new deal just reimbursing the watch now the much of the british political class and media don't seem to want to touch the issue . breakfast, the elephant in the room ahead of the you case, upcoming elections. so what state is permits? what is the state of britain more than 4 years after leaving the u. haul suggests the british are fed up with prime minister wishes to now and has conservative tories 14 years and power. fixing the cost of living crisis and health care with the n h. s. our top priorities for voters. and what about for exit campaigners promise to reduce migration? the way we're parties, candidate care storm or as promising change this week onto the points we ask in

a broken britain, can a labor government offers the u. k. a new starts the hello. i'm quite richard saying that i'm thrilled to welcome our guests to our studio in berlin. we have nikolai, went on darpa, if one of the analyst at the german institute for international and security affairs, oliver moody, berlin correspondent for the british daily the times. and katya, where historian and author at king's college london, at joining us today with a view from london. so katya, i think it makes sense to come straight to you. how would you describe the mood going into these elections on july 4th? a well, that's certainly a lot of gun disaffection out there. i think, you know, not least with the fact that these problems, some of which were mentioned in the,

in the introductory film have been around for years and decades. um, you know, and that doesn't seem to be an attempt to so soul them as far as lots of people are concerned. um no, everyone sees labels c o v is kind of, you know, way out of the many people for labor because they won't change. but they're not entirely convinced that that will come. so there's a general sense of, you know, something needs to happen. something needs to change and people on into the show kind of with and, and how that's going to come forth. yes or disagreement over how in whether that's going to change, but oliver, do you think it's fair to say that most in the u. k. think that there is something fundamentally broken. we can put numbers really can numbers on this. so a couple of days ago that was a survey of people in 7 countries asking how do you write the general state if you'll country. and in denmark, 25 percent said it was either quite or very bad suite and it was 49 percent germany . it was set up all of our given what we've just talked about, you know,

i think an international audience might be asking, okay, if rex it hasn't gone as planned, if so many people are disillusioned with it, why wouldn't labor, for example, and campaign on trying to get the u. k. back into the you. i think in short there are 2 reasons for that. the 1st is the public opinion is very divided. the surveys fluctuate a bit, but usually it looks like those are need thought to a 40 percent of the electorate. the thinks it's a good idea to be joining the a you and they don't want to wiping out that whole kind of ones in the pond arise. i shouldn't be head during the referendum yet. the 2nd reason i think is that the actual policy differences you could make and buttons relationship with the you now of very technical and people's the average person's understanding of an enthusiasm for these. but at the end of the day brought the kind of minor regulatory shift is a lot lower than it would have been 5 years ago. all right, well let's take a closer look at the repercussions of, of braxton, especially with regard to the economy. that's a big one on independence analysis published this year,

found that breakfast is costing the u. k. 140000000000 pounds. it's roughly 162000000000 euros a year. economy has shrunk. many are feeling the consequences acutely in their everyday lives. full years off, the brakes to purchase residents of feeling disillusioned. many people are struggling with the shop, increasing the price of food and housing companies are complaining about stuff, shortages and border controls along with ram to interrupt policy and delivery delays. great. and the strong dining here. so he's leaving the european union. it's really going down here for the n h s. the countries health care system has been especially impacted. doctors are regularly striking against pull wages and stuffing shortages. it's probably very unfortunate for people who have missed appointments by the end of the day. it's the stuff on taken care of and how can they take care of a 7 and

a half 1000000 patients are currently waiting for treatment. the breaks the tea is promised that billions of pounds would flow into the chest instead of brussels has not been fulfilled. which has led to approval ratings for conservatives and power plummeting. this benefits the late, the policy issues lead to key. a storm is promising to purchase people, change fox can leave the really change the country has come to katya for more of a diagnosis of what's going on with the u. k. economy, katya. how would you assess the state of the economy now in 2024 compared to before breaks it to? well, when you look at what matters to people, the economy is always very high up as the cost of living basically. and this is the main thing that people realize in the everyday lives is not everything is just becoming so much more expensive. you know, even when you look at inflation rates just at surface level, you know,

that doesn't really translate into what this actually means for groceries, which has become disproportionately more expensive to kind of day to day stuff. really. that matters to people. that's not until i need you to break so that i mean the office, the world wide issues with inflation, corporate has a lot to do with the other things as well. so sometimes this quite difficult to disentangle that, you know, from, from the extra impact of breaks it up to another, people are basically feeding the squeeze because it was already quite tight. you know, even years ago for people to make ends meet at the end of the month. and now it's becoming possible for many, many people across the country. and it's like, how would you this entangle this, how, how much of this is cost of living crisis and the state of the economy is, is down to breakfast and versus things that are affecting the rest of europe like the krona virus. now demick like the war and ukraine, i think the big differences said something like the pen damage. there was one huge hit to the economy and then and started to recover. and breakfast is a constant rack on the u. k. economy. it affects competitiveness. it affects how

companies can trade with the e u, and therefore it columbus estimate that the u. k. is losing about 4 percent of a cdp gradually overtime. and does this make it makes it so difficult for the u. k to recover. and i think the 2nd point in this is maybe the difficulty for breakfast to us. many people in the u. k. now blame almost all problems economically on breaks it. whether it's true or not. and this has contributed to this effect of breasts of being so unpopular in the u. k. even ask you would say inflation cost of living crisis is something that also affects other european cry countries. but for the u. k. wrecks, it comes on top of that and makes it even worse. yeah. oliver. do you agree with that? and if maybe you can also paint us picture of what this cost of living crisis looks like for people, you know, 111 huge factor that really doesn't have much of tool to do with breaks that, that we haven't talked about yet. is the cost of housing. yeah, which is bad and a lot of western countries,

but it's very is particularly bad in britain because of the tangled of regulations that prevent people from building and also because of the mismanagement of fiscal policy and less trust when she was prime minister. so the mortgage rates on my flats in london doubled in the space of 6 months. we were paying like, found more than a 1000 pounds a month more well, as a result of that, that particular economic crisis, which had absolutely nothing whatsoever to do with breaks it so, so much unpredictability, there for your average person, katya. i guess the big question is that you've been to that already is, can labor fix some of these issues that the conservatives have, have not been able to as well. so is the big question for me. we don't really know it because the rhetoric that is coming out from the labor party at the moment actually sounds quite similar to what the conservatives are saying. so there's a lot of talk about christ, economic price trying to basically create revenue,

not necessarily directly through the raise of taxation, but to try and basically get the economy going and there by increasing the states revenue. whether that will come to pos, of course and tardy, depends on whether they can create the price that they, that they need to make that work. if not, then they may either have to borrow money or raise taxes, both of which will of course, have an impact on the economy overall. yeah, typically i'd like to get your view on that to whether labor has a plan in place that could do the conservatives have not. and also what katya mentioned, i think, is important about how are you going to pay for all this. so labor has a huge sleep in the polls around 20 percent. and so they're almost guaranteed to have a government with a probably very, very large, absolutely majority. and you could guess that would give them the breathing space to be more innovative and developed more radical ideas. but kissed i'mma has used the very opposite strategy in london. they speak about the mean boss for the way. how is this poli before him and is a very cautious to say anything that might upset both us and so he was out any tax

increases. he's very cautious on breakfast. and so as katia said, the, the economic ideas and the labor manifesto basically boils down to we hope we can stimulate more gross by being a more competent government. but we will not say anything, how we actually address the fiscal problems. and this will become a huge difficulty once labor has this majority. and basically on day one, he would have to give the answers to the economy, to the people on how he will address this. very, very tied fiscal space and still achieve growth for the okay. and then till then he's shuffling toward voting day, holding this really delicate raising his hands all over. i do want to talk about the n h s. this is of, are also one of the things that when polls the british they, they really want see an improvement too. from the next government head of rex it worst. johnson had promised that leaving the you would free off money that would then be re invested in britain's health service. why has that not happened?

why is it not happened? because the money wasn't afraid up by leaving the a you. but it's also not entirely true that the government hasn't invest in the health. so if his health spending has risen, and in fact in international comparison, we spend about 11.3 percent of all gd pay on the health surface, which is not as high as here in germany, but it's very high by the standards of ridge countries. so i think you have to ask really one of the kind of underlying reasons why we're getting started, poll results for what is a fairly significant investment. all right, so as we've heard, anger has been largely directed at the ruling, a conservative party, but i think it's important to talk about something else, giving them a run for their money in the polls is a right wing populace party featuring many of the same faces and names you might know from you kept, which campaigned in favor of rex it. well, guess it was back, mr. breaks it. and nigel for ross has returned. he's trying to enter the house of commons with his new policy reform. you came according to

a poll. it's the 2nd strongest policy behind the labor and a head of the tories for ross and says, the conservatives have failed to deliver on the promises made during brick set, including limits on immigration. anyway, so really funny, it was still a supper and say to decide who can come in, who can say is by leaving the european court of human rights, it is completely out of date. this populace terminology is similar to p. m through next, recent statements out domestic court will no longer be able to use any domestic international, including the human rights act. to stop us removing illegal migrants through not a must to pull refugees to rewind, although quotes have loads that it's dangerous. so next government responded saying rwanda is safe now for ours is once again fishing for right wing votes, his goal is to become prime minister in 5 years. right?

wing, populism, and immigration. will they shape british politics even more in the future? so nikolai, it seems that the only politicians in the u. k. still openly supporting breakfasts are part of reform, u. k. can you put this party into perspective for us, for example, how does it compare to other right when populous movements that we've seen in western europe? so reform u. k is very similar to the file, right? national conservative parties, i would say they campaign, for instance, for very strict migration rules. they campaign against net 0 climate policy. and i think the biggest similarity that the main aim is really to take over the central right position. so for a status aimless, basically, to become a 2nd in the polls, maybe not even get many seats in the house of commons, but intellectually take over the conservative party and drive it for the to the

file. right. and establish this as the only opposition to labor, and then this would give him the space to implement or push for his policies that he wants to get in, in the long term. and the selection oliver would you have expected to see reform u. k. performing. so well, relative to the conservative party, i absolutely would look, i grew up in a verbal family of like died in the will. conservatives who regarded margaret thatcher was assigned to david cameron is a dangerous new wet liberal. what i find interesting looking back is that they voted for previous module, firearms projects for the you kind of dependence potty for the breaks it potty without feeling that they compromise their identity as tories. because they saw nodule. firearms as an instrument to direct their own party. towards what base towards more authentic, conservative values. in other words, this has always been about moving to main center, right, potty and breton to the right. first of all, on the you then on that 0 and now increasingly on integration and russia and katya,

do you think then that we will see a bigger role of this brand of, of right wing populism in the u. k. have they've been successful in what oliver's laying out? i think so. not nice because they have nigel fellows back. you know what? but many people, the problem that many people have with the 2 main stream policies, is that they haven't go any personnel really out the top with any form of you know, what, what you might describe as christmas and a nicer fathers does have that. and so i think, you know, because they've managed to sort of striking my off retirement or whatever it is that he was doing. but they have not got somebody use basically able to galvanize a section of the population behind them. and that will play a role. now a lot of this is true not just in the u. k, but in a lot of right wing movements within europe. one thing that came up again and again is immigration in the u. k. reducing it, tightening borders. in fact, one of the biggest promises of rex it right, was that if the u. k left the you,

it would be able to tighten borders. nickel, i do think that that promise after breakfast has been fulfilled is yes and no. i mean, the ironic thing this, that's the breakfast referendum was about migration from, from the you. and that actually went down a lot of less people from the you come to the, you, k and many people from the us have left. but what has risen as it goes migration into into the u. k, to a very, very strong extent, but also migration from other parts of the world like hong kong talk is done. india that has also risk. and so right now, the net migration of the u. k. has reached figures said when never reached before the brakes that referendum over $600000.00 people per year. and that means for many bricks. the t is $1.00 to $2.00 vote for breaks it to really controlled the borders . the accept opposite has happened. we have the small boat crisis and even the, the conservative party with all the run, the policy that we see. so not tried to implement has not managed to really control

the bought it. and this is one of the core reasons why the attack from the file, right? a so open with niger for us, but also people within the conservative party attacking or research. so not and saying we have not really fulfilled a call problem of controlling migration and controlling our own borders. and oliver, what is labor promising here regarding migration festival? i hate to contradict nikolai with he's because today will expertise. but while the political focus is very much on a regular integration, the increase that we've seen and immigration from outside the us overwhelmingly been regular life and migration to fail. unfilled jobs, above all in the caps cast sector in the health sector to areas that are really lacking even the reform party. and it's manifesto that that is the right wing populous party admits that it would only try and cut no necessary integration, right? because there is actually a kind of side and political consensus that our economy can only be sustain,

that we can only pay for people to look after all our elderly methods. so it says the state in the, in a chest with a certain level of integration, not even a scope of skills like, but also have on school. like what does that play into labor? is platform this time around? i don't think labor has taken any kind of very, particularly strong positions on the subject to you. they said that they want to show the one the policy. and the aim is to get is even migration under control by sort of tackling the criminal gangs rather than trying to establish the state to and of to run the policy. but they also, i think, back again to this and being bossed with a very, very careful not to talk about immigration because that is one of the a tech lines of the conservatives saying, if you get labor, you will get much more people to the u. k. that was a very nice the ad for by the conservative party, where they showed somebody from the labor rolling all direct carpet at the british coast and saying if you voted labor, you would get lots,

lots of more. and because the migration, so the very careful not to talk about that, even if su sense, the degree migration is actually increasing and helpful for the okay? cuz the, the numbers have a tiny, right? the way the scheme we're talking about maybe a few 100 people at most bang to poach at each year. they this the obsession with the cycle. refreshing. yeah. but it's smokeless bringing people across the channel . that's 30000. yeah. like that's not even 5 percent of the title. and so i think the political debate about this has been incredibly narrow. it comparisons to kind of overall demographic changes with say so. so just to be clear, why make such a big deal out of this? if it's a relatively small number of just this, my theory here is that in the breaks it referendum. and since then it's not fundamentally, for most part has been about the number of people coming into the u. k. it has been about the feeling that they can exercise some form of control of who comes in and what becomes very visible with iraqi during the question. in particular with the small boat is the fact that we can't control this. yeah, got you. i just like to bring you in here too and get your thoughts on what nikolai

and oliver have been talking about is that, do you share that same view to well us, i think it genuinely is a big issue for a lot of items. so you see, when you look at surveys, the around 2 thirds of photos consider immigration of one of the, the big things thought. so keeps them awake at night. and that's been pretty stable actually for a few years now. so is a big issue, which is why the tories i came to talk about it. but what they're not going to talk about is effectively the dependence of the british economy on a cheap kind of ready made labor. people who've already been trained to do certain things, particularly in the medical sector. and them be sort of important if you will, into the u. k. without the u. k. um, you know, industry having or, or the economy having to train them themselves. and so this focus on this move, but it's is a way about taking integration as a topic and talking about it, but notes about the bit that they don't really want to do anything about, you know, so you can still use this topic without really addressing why that by legal

migration is still so high because i, i just want to bring this full circle and get some, some final thoughts on what's ahead. after these elections. can labor be a new start for the u. k. this is our big question. so i think 1st new governments are in pretty quickly in the u. k. so basically the day after the elections of labor gets a huge majority of the customer will be invited to form the government, but it will not be a blessed i. in 1997 revolution where labor comes in with a plan to really to and the country around. i think the best line i would describe the labels current policy is, was we want to do a lot of things like the tories, but we want to do that more competence and then kissed. i'm a will try to very carefully readjust some of the levers of, of the u. k. public policy address these fiscal circumstances. i don't think foreign policy will be a big issue. so even the u. k. u relationship, which we talked about in the beginning,

labor would only very carefully address that. and really the focus will be on tackling and h. s. the cost of living crisis. is it sort of small levers and labor trying to convince the economy to invest more and in the country? and this is what i think is stomach was say on day one after the elections. and where does all of our, where does this leave? the conservatives assuming labor does roll to victory, as the polls are showing. what you expect to come next in the recognize is actually a super interesting and unpredictable question. i think because that the general default assumption is that they will draw the lesson from the fate that they one far enough to the right. and that's why they haven't ridge so many bytes to the right wing populist brought that they're contributing, that they lost it in the middle and they should have tried to fight life for the sense of ground. and that therefore it would get increasingly radical. you would have of right wing latest, somebody like sweat up or off mental pretty patel who were the full now i'm secretaries. but there are also analyses that suggest the complection of the parliamentary party could actually be pretty centrist in of to the election. it

could be like radically different to what we've been used to for the past 5 years. in which case, you know, it is very possible that they could recognize quite quickly that the only plausible route they've got back to power is to a point somebody who can try and win the battle for the center grant. it'd be interesting to see how that plays out katya. let's, let's come to you. it is the u. k. do you think if you have to look into your crystal ball and make a prediction? what's happening next year in the u. k. will it see change as care start as promising or does breaks it have a role in a fundamentally crippling it in, in, in what it sees in the years ahead in terms of its economy. and it's a and it's standing on the world stage or i don't think breaks that would necessarily play a huge role. i think just almost already said, you know, that obviously doesn't want to take the u. k. back in as you will try and tweak basically the existing of agreements be that on security or in, on inputs,

exports and so on. but it will be incremental change, you know, so no, i don't think that the big thing the, dominate the headlines. i think told me an interesting question is what's happening internally with the labor party? i mean, you know that this kind of ming vase, the price that we've been talking about has also works. you know, to what's the inside. i'd really deal with the labor party because that's very divided and with our kill stomach and bring not together the less than the right wing kind of wings of it and then run the country with them remains to be seen. all right, so a political reckoning from both sides. it sounds like i will keep an eye on the election results as they come out. i want to thank my fabulous panel of guests for your insights. today as nikolai went on that that oliver moody and katya white i and to you watching at home. thank you so much for your attention. i for watching on youtube. br office. a comment in the comments section. i'm clear, richardson in berlin and we're so glad you can join us today. the,

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