sleigh and box is the best news in the well, the wife says to call me back because it's what we need friends are of course hoping the reunion goes well. the, the, the tickets go on sale this saturday by that. that is your news update. i'm quite richardson in berlin. thank you so much for watching. the name is the calls back. said loud. thank you so much for joining in. welcome to don't hold bad. a lot of people do that. it's all about saying it aloud, and that's what it being nosy bay, like good everyone to kings, to check out the award winning called com. no, hold back. nato

. the north atlantic treaty organization was formed to 75 years ago. its aim to prevent war between solver and countries, the 75 years of europe and history without a war. that's the ultimate expression of a successful alliance. then, on february 24th 2022, russia launched a full scale invasion of ukraine. war had returned to europe. ukraine itself is not a needle member, but russia's actions have prompted the question. is the western military alliance capable of defending itself? how strong is nato? the

russian president vladimir putin viewed the eastern expansion of nato as both a threat and betrayal of a ported promise and booting size. it was a breach of trust that justified russia's attack on another country. he made that clear in an address to the nation 3 days before russian troops invaded ukraine. the scene instead of big sleeplessness, that is as low as i may need, but i will lay the substitute system. why be sufficient? you does that process. that is a project right in the site of the game storm. i mean, we weren't supposed to be speaking into that process. the motion, so similar to what was the level of the annual kind of nothing. it's a pretty maya mr. holmes, who was the senior electric by the master. oh yeah, no, it seems like himself a kind of shows name be sure to get something even though some guy who comes up some thoughts of a person virginia, you know, might you say it was the 1st on the sample i beach and to you please. i do it as

the best, but i need to use the see if i give them the base. wilson's grandmother new megan doing the best solution in the bottom when he is still. i mean, yet you don't mind your customer sitting in your way in the north. that's it. that's not one inch eastward. that's the much quoted promise. nato is said to have made to russia. so did the west. the train russian historian mary e sorority has spent most of her academic life focusing on that exact question. she's conducted more than $100.00 interviews and scrutinized countless transcripts letters and documents and ultimately. ready she found a clear answer. what i would really like would be if the russians would lay down their weapons and go home. i can't make that happen. but in a certain sense,

putting this, trying to get us history is a weapon to justify what he's doing. and i am a historian, and so in my own little way, it's very minor compared to what the premiums are doing. but in my own little way, i can perhaps take that weapon away from him by showing and a serious, reproducible scholarly way. the true narrative, the actual narrative of what happened. the story begins shortly after the fall of the berlin wall. germany was on the brink of reunification, but there was a challenge. germany had surrendered unconditionally after the 2nd world war. so the 4 victor powers of the us, france, britain, and the soviet union still had undisputed legal rights over divided germany, and particularly over divided berlin. so in order for germany to unify, all 4 had to give those powers up of the 3 victorious western powers. ask themselves what the 4th power would demand. what with the soviet union's last liter

mikhail gorbachev want in return for allowing the reunification of germany the the former west german foreign minister hans dietrich denture was, was certain that corporate jobs would want the security of knowing and dentures words that neither poland nor hungary is going to join nato, so venture thought that was reasonable and felt strongly that the western allies, so america, britain, france, and west germany should offer that to gorbachev. denture, propose the idea to us secretary of state james baker. he too thought it was reasonable. on february 9th 1990 baker visited gorbachev at the kremlin and he says roughly the following. how about you let your part of germany go. and we say that nato nato, in its jurisdiction,

will move not one into sports. after the meeting, baker flew back to the us to report back to his boss and a good friend, president george h. w. bush. bush, however, was anything but impressed with the proposal, the bush says, jim, i'm disappointed in you. i don't think we should negotiate about the future of nato . i think nato just won the cold war. i think nato is great just the way it is. so we're not going to do that. and you need to let people know. so one of my more interesting discoveries was a letter that baker then wrote to the west german for him ministry at the end of february, saying, i'm sorry, i should have said that i've caused confusion. we need to stop talking about this. and after that, this offer disappears from you american negotiating position. 2 weeks later, bush invited west german chancellor,

helmut kohl and his wife to camp david the us president's country residence bush said to call pretty much the same thing, but he said to james baker, we're not going to negotiate or the future of nato to help with that right, that's a direct quote to help with that. and coal responded okay. the corporate job is going to want something in exchange for his burdening tips and goals. coal thought about it and said, perhaps it will be a question of money. and bush responded. you have deep pockets and the later defense minister bob gates, who was basically taking notes around this time, he bob gates later wrote his memoirs. at that moment the strategy became clear. we were going to bribe the soviets out, but with money not with promises about nato enlargement. the 2 plus 4 negotiations dragged on until september 12th 1990. by then nothing stood in the way of german

reunification. and the line not one inch eastward was not in any treaty storage as assembly vegas tuck. you're one does the for, i need them to judge. so and then by truck routes, a field 70 it even guns old. this was not an amateur. our. these were professionals negotiating, this was the a team, as we say in america, and at the end, what actually was in the contract explicitly allows nato to enlarge across the former cold war front line. that i believe is what is most important. and the soviet union not only signed that accord, not only ratified it, but also cashed the associated check from billions of deutsch marks. that doesn't mention. so what, who does is he mentioned the early phase when a go, she ations where that was a possibility. but then he ignores what actually happened to the end. months later,

the soviet union collapsed. the warsaw pact was officially dissolved. the soviet flag over the kremlin was lowered nato when the west had one. suddenly the question arose. what should they don't do next? month after 1990, there was this idea of the peace dividend all states in europe in the west, but also russia and other former soviet states reduced their arms. the idea was if everyone has your weapons, it signaled nobody wanted conflict in that one's view of one kind of conflict. and for a few years at least, the idea seemed to work. relations between russia and the west, improved and 1997 leaders of nato countries and russian president boris yeltsin, signed a cooperation agreement called the nato, russia, a founding act. german, diplomatic, both gong dissing was at the negotiations. the,

the bits you're in the 1st half of the 1990s, the relationship was by no means confrontational or hostile or russian needed cooperation with the west of a rush. it was later admitted to the g 7 or so suddenly we were the g 8 of the don't proceed by the us. the nato, russia founding act, literally states, nato and russia do not consider each other as adversaries. therefore, man, do you mean the spot who is by caps? i'm ok. let's see if you don't see it. i see it choose to be too bad or you know, or you don't be able to walk in the founding that the west made concessions to rush out just because of didn't give you, couldn't we agreed that no nuclear weapons would be deployed on the territory a future, eastern natal member states, go to a period and build and vote so i wouldn't even know if the sort but despite the

accept. we also accepted that the deployment of troops from nato member states in those countries would only be allowed to take place in a very limited way, though the stuff in dawson and tomato honored that agreement, says andre courts, who not academic director of the russian international affairs council in moscow, the, the license too young to me or do i agree that between 20142022 the north atlantic treaty organization showed us such an restraint, a yacht, people to go up to the youngest folks because i had several commission yet more restraint in deploying new troops and heavy weapons to its eastern flank to roll. it would really not for you of us. portion of the long abilities was evidently done

to avoid any accusation of violating the provisions of the nato russia founding act as local guys to uh, the uh, the right. see not the category the act does not allow the apologies to station launch off most of weapons along the russian border. really uh, probably needs have like a saying, yeah, i'm gonna give them a boost lend. on the other hand, russia is doing things very differently. has to meet this nuclear, we have to assume that there are nuclear capable missile systems and colon and brad, which wouldn't give much warning to us sitting here in berlin. and here been a lot is happening there, positive i because we haven't done any of that needs. we haven't done anything in this domain that didn't already exist before reunification or during the cold war exist yet. even when booting came to power in 1999, the relationship between russia and nato was peaceful. the old enemy seemed to have

become a friend. meanwhile, a new adversary had emerged. terrorism to this day, the alliance is article 5 has only ever been invoked once. following the terrorist attacks of september, 11th, 2001. today, our fellow citizens, our way of life. our very freedom came under attack in a series of deliberate and deadly terrorist acts. the pictures of airplanes flying and the buildings fires, burning huge, huge structures collapsing have filled us with disbelief. at the time stephanie bobs was a nato security adviser at headquarters in brussels, watching as events unfolded the as gab down much oh, do you force them during the attacks? but also off too. it's, there was

a sense that we should expect to find the retakes bites of an i'm and we didn't know where and, and i remember very well how unsettled we felt as employees at nato headquarters to use. okay, who we so we will also target. we have an even 5 target so again, if it was directed from abroad, i didn't see and i did see it show me the job as an x cover up to 5 of the washington to into fund vargas. these include in that regard, there was a considerable risk in invoking article 5. you please by kind of because nobody knew what the situation would be like in a week's time. another kind of items and whether the americans would suddenly demand immediate military support from that route lice. and nobody could know that for ca tile is off to the attacks. then i'm just leaving new mustang

and response to the attacks us president george w bush declared a war on terror and $2170.00 nations took part in the subsequent war in afghanistan, including all nato countries and russia. a few days after the attacks put in speaking german address to the german parliament in berlin, who did the other. the other is foods and was one of the very 1st to express his condolences and a willingness to help after 911. that's relations were still stable. back then w, the when the of the other day i'm going to have an undefined and haven't, who does the unites of placing. usually that was so difficult for them to be dealing with it shoots and this one thing in the them to them and kind of because i spoke with you, it's from september in the fed up in the time to finish talking to she is one of in plus mentioned in the guns severely foggins, this is the common con. once we have done so the issue,

the death of dentistry gibson for an interview. the political you are leaving the vice president. and i think this is tim, just because i know 5 michelle new in duplicate helping get him on the keep getting notes with poland. ready food and supported nato in afghanistan in the fight against dow, kinda some of nato's logistics were routed via russia. at the time, prudence even considered the prospect of russia joining nato. the . ready ready both russia and nato member states benefit from the cooperation economically and politically, the non. yep, that's the problem. and you have certainly used to michel very much. there was

a very good cooperation between the west and russian dollars, essentially in the early 2, thousands a year and then the well yeah, yeah, complete get that goes out to wouldn't store. or the best example is probably the transportation options that russia offered nato during the war in afghanistan or the other. so it was to let you all a while you in that there are the so called the northern transport car dog. well, well, for several years you're going to be around the door. it proved to be very effective and you can get the category of option. because also, if it's even from 2002 onwards, representatives of russia and nato met regularly in the nato, russia council. the mood among leaders was playful and upbeat at the more, like i said, the minute the step, quite a few of them. i think even though i just don't said you have to do much, do i think i left with it in

the slippery slope of the i think it started to go downhill with the us decision to intervene in iraq. if not before then, gosh, i don't, because moscow of course had the feeling that a red line hadn't been crossed. or this is a new prescription. if the americans were going to start that kind of war means you get the with thousands of tanks and soldiers. and as it turned out, the based on false information and then where, what it ends on it was, it was investing, and it was the beginning of the end of good relations between russia and the west. russia, like china and france voted against the invasion of a rock at the un security council. the us invaded any way without a un mandate in 2007, 4 years after the us invaded iraq with its coalition of the will. it and you got

you and of the cost of those 2 approaches were bound to clash sooner or later that you develop i for the around the pause, know those little bit as talk a little so we can still void shipping a but it's a new apology. ation depends a bit me moves and the problem most of the ideally, normally the best suited to, than you've seen a lot and then what was it that is just okay, so you much doesn't need to shut down the list lane that's on the good. i need to keep us with the website. if you look on them, if you find the ticket, you put when you thought i see it maybe as a way to begin with. so that's the look i'm with upon that. come with the brother of actually physically, i guess we probably reacted unwisely. he zillow, the reaction was basically to assume he just needed to let off some steam with that the next morning it would be back to business as usual. and that turned out to be a miscalculation in the field agents. we found that out in 2008 at the latest. i

mean, when russia responded to the george and uprisings with massive military force for me to tell them after that. but nothing really went downhill. nicholas, in the back of the, in 2014 russian forces occupied crimea, pro russian insurgents and eastern new crane were supported with arms supplies, logistics, and irregular forces. the official line was that moscow was protecting the russian language and culture. in reality, it was probably also about preventing ukraine from joining nato. after all, no country involved in a conflict is allowed to join the alliance. who should face? rain would follow in 2022. the

rushes for administer essentially declared that the nato russia council was no more they want to go back to the border since 1997. they sent a concept tree to text and later in december 2021. and that means that the basically all the members that since 1997 has become a member of nato, would sort of become a 2nd to a class member. of course that is unacceptable. who wants less of nato instead? he's getting more of it. finland joining the alliance in 20. 23. sweden applied for membership in 2022, but wasn't admitted at 1st. for 20 months, turkish president ridge of type air to one block, sweden's membership that hungary opposed to even longer.

only to members have the right to veto, for example, when it comes to new member states as our district. and obviously here for christmas we had been preparing for over a year and dropping. they made an incredibly important, really quite 2 story decisions. they had to get it through parliament, which was a difficult political fate, inclusive, the sister from the they were more or less dependent on 2 people, missed the oven and missed a other one and all bundled. so they were on the doorstep and they basically have the bag and quotes. i told them bitches. research, are you guys out? dean says air to one has deliberately used nato to make profitable deals for years . and his role at the german institute for international and security affairs id and has observed turkeys, foreign policy of this house. and there's also a tactical reason for the turkish position, with turkey wants to extort more benefits, such as the us if you want to put it that way. and this was,

i kind of escape. it's about acquiring a 16 fighter jets, for example, jets. turkey isn't going to make it easy. i mean, the country is negotiating this one to 100. meanwhile, nato once again faces an age old question. how united would the alliance be in the event of an attack? polling suggests that nearly 3 quarters of turks now see its nato partner the united states as their greatest threat. nato itself now has just 23 percent support in turkey. nato is most important member was and is the us. it's key to the alliance of strength and its future. we assembled here today are issuing a new decree to be heard in every city, in every foreign capital and in every hall of power. and from this day forward, a new vision will govern our land. from this day forward,

it's going to be only america. first america, 1st the united states, please, an extremely important coordinating role in nato. the president is the most important person in the alliance and without an american president and all of that means in terms of american military and nuclear power. the, the, the alliance itself would be just a shadow of itself. good. in july 2018 nato secretary general young sheldon beck and us president donald trump clashed on camera at the nato summit and brussels. germany is just paying a little bit over one percent. where's the united states and actual numbers is paying for point 2 percent of

a much larger g d p. so i think that's inappropriate. all, you know, we're protecting germany, we're protecting france, we're protecting everybody. and yet we're paying a lot of money to protect. now this has been going on for decades, and then numerous of the countries go out and make a pipeline deal with russia without paying billions of dollars into the coffers of russian. and i think that's very inappropriate. and the former chancellor of germany is the head of the pipeline company that supplying the gas in 2014 nato member states agreed to spend a 2 percent of gdp on defense. but apart from the united states modeling, any countries stuck to it, the john bolton was us national security advisor for around 18 months under donald trump until the president forced him to resign. and when i took, the job is national security advisor. i believe that the weight of the decisions

that the president had to make in the national security field, the gravity of the responsibility would weigh on donald trump and disciplined him in the same way. it had for 44 american presidents before him. bolton was there on the 2nd day of the nato summit, when trump nearly caused a major incident. the while i was in a car over to our embassy, a residence in brussels, where the president was staying. and he called me in the car and said, uh, i think we should do something historic today. i think we should withdraw from nato . and i said this somewhat surprised by that. i said, well, let's discuss it. i'm almost there. as soon as i hung up at the present minute, i called the mike pompei o the secretary of state and called john kelly white house chief of staff. i tried

to reach matt as the secretary of defense, to basically say all hands on deck. i think this is very serious the for the 1st time and need those history. a us withdrawal seemed a real possibility. the . well, i was very worried that the trump would actually announce with wrong right there. not that we had considered it not. we had discussed it at the n, a c a, but because trump, once he started talking about something off and just went ahead and did it. and at one point, trump said to me that basically he was going to replace me with someone who didn't argue with him, but who just said yes, when he said things like, i want to get out of nato or the last conversation i had was,

and he was literally sitting at the big table in the nato meeting room. he called me up and said, well, shall we do it? and i said that, go right up to the line, but don't go over the line. and then i went and sat back down and when i set down, i had no prediction 40 would do the i think with a normal president it would have been seen as a blow because people know that come on the united states needs nato just as much as nato needs the united states, so nobody would have taken him serious. he comes across is not truly appreciating the significance of the alliance or what it even means or understanding the history or why do we do what we do. he, he understands the world and a transactional sense. quit pro, quote, then each. if i give you secure, is he what do i get in return? why do i have it was deal when it comes to nature. he didn't depreciate that nature

was impose and for the us in order to create global stability and security for him, it's just to do that. but can you give me this? and i'll give you that. that's what nato is about. the mission of, of, of the not to do nothing came of trumps threats. but nato allies, especially those in europe. we're concerned me. berlin july 29 team simulation was carried out by london's international institute for strategic studies. and the cub of foundation security experts from germany, france, the u. k. poland, and the us to part. everything happened in secret. neither the location nor the participants were disclosed. new law is executive director of international affairs of the club, a foundation by these. and so now you have them as

a sole task for the scenario exercises we invite and government officials but also people from the academic world. and from think tanks of the think tank that i was for sure they come from various countries that are relevant for the scenario we're playing out new and then the funds and a and a very important requirement. denise simulation games is that the list of participants remains absolutely confidential. obviously the, the fatality type the technician scenario was this. during a 2nd, trump presidency. the us announces its withdrawal from nato. it wasn't a military scenario. it was a political one. what concessions would the remaining members states be prepared to make with nato even collapse under the strain of the us threat? as of the start your team about details for hi, it's of a german team was quite prepared to throw the issue of trade policy into the equation. voc charlotte to val for the pullin volume and the polish team was

relatively quick to enter into talks with the americans along the lines of hey hey, what can we do beyond nieto in terms of a bilateral security policy agreements? be that to our and the, the shots pretty to should fine boned. so send that of course was actually a concern for the other players in the game. yeah. and then up to in these, infuse then then the, and because we start making bilateral security agreements with the west mason that the structure you know, will be undermined to the us to not tool i spoke to that or she went on the new to that and what they expected would happen, but it was a return to a series of bilateral alliance as alliances between 2 states, maybe 3 states in europe. and what they saw was the return to rickety system of alliances like those that existed in europe before the 2nd world war. and then in some cases, before the 1st world war 2. and they worried that this would be

a very unstable and dangerous situation, where states would have a series of different security obligations that could activate a whole series of dominos, if you will, if a conflict where to begin. the scenario secretly played out in berlin and 2019 became relevant once more and 2024. trump has repeatedly made nato an election issue, and his campaign appearances the and we don't get so much out of it. and you know, i just sent you this about nato. if we ever needed the help, let's say we were attacked. i don't believe they'd be there. i very much fear if he becomes president again, he will withdraw from data that he will probably also band and ukraine. that who knows what else he will do. i think it will be very destructive, very counterproductive. i think that the trump will withdraw from nato because he

has felt for so long that it was something he wanted to do. i think he feels frustrated that he wasn't able to do it. in his 1st term. he probably blames people like myself and several others and, and try in a 2nd. trump term. he will not be burdened by people like me. i can tell you. they asked me that question one of the presidents of, of the countries that upset. well sir, uh if we don't pay and were attacked by russia, will you protect us? i said, you didn't pay your delinquent. you said yes. let's say that happened. no, i would not protect you. in fact, i would encourage them to do whatever the hell they want. so you gotta say, gotta pay your bill. and the money came flowing in. we were like the stupid country of the world and we're not going to be the stupid country of the world any longer. we're not going to be the to see if the real danger

isn't unofficial us withdrawal from nato. that was, that's something that congress made clear again in 2019 with legislation on some of i'm a north east, you must have the president does not have the power to break the north atlantic treaty suppression fatigues and treaties have to go through congress if she could 5, does the police, there's a real danger as a lack of political will to do anything in the case of an allied being attacked by whether the president and the white house is trump, or someone else. i've been from the day give a bit even if trump is re elected and doesn't officially withdrawal from nato, because the us congress doesn't allow him to come because still decide to do nothing. if an attack takes place, put him on a contract. the us congress would still have the power to dig a will, but the us presidents from, as military commander could simply not send troops from the i could the world's

largest military alliance. and it's famous article 5 be undermined by just one person. and that's not the only threat to nato global power dynamics have been shifting for years to life. and i think for one thing us society is changing some of them. but also in recent years, there's been a dramatic increase in the perception that china is a threat. we need global play of that could take on the us under the category we rushes and a completely different category. when it comes to that, according to the global fire power index, china is ranked just after the united states and russia when it comes to military strength and worldwide. modernization of beijing's military is set to be completed by 2035 plus china already has the largest navy in the world. satellite images from recent years show how china has build up huge military bases on small, undeveloped ad holes in the south china sea. in china is taking

increasingly aggressive stance towards taiwan and other agents dates those dates are internal, also hoping for assistance from the us and nato. the team that we're also seeing this with you claim increasingly the question is can we be equally active in both these see it says in both regions. nice and that's with now spending on ukraine in terms of weapons and supports should we already be supplying that to tie $12.00, in case of a conflict from success databases going on in the us, getting types of options. if i'm titles and i wasn't part of a delegation to the us in 2019, during our discussions, the americans told us russia, so you're a problem. it's a european problem now is not ours anymore. you have to take care of it. on the desktop is not going to change, even if and 10 or 20 years. we have better relations with russia until then,

europeans have to come to terms with the idea that the us may simply not be able to act in the conflict because they may be busy elsewhere. the one that was on the mantel challenge for europeans in the future will be to show how they can also be useful and not just the beneficiary of us security. or is there a need for a plan b, like or unified european army? after roll? particle $42.00 of the treaty on european union contains its own mutual assistance guarantees similar to nato's article 5. you need us to say the us wouldn't be the mandatory power. it is today if it wasn't centralized, and that's exactly why a european army under a unified command structure is so unlikely because we're not one country like the united states to be able to kind of the european union is made up of 27 countries.

mind, they will never let us central command in brussels, for example, take military decision making out of the center. and it's a time come understand it includes it. somebody in february 2024 in europe and commission president, most of the fund a lie and supported a proposal to appoint an e u. defense commissioner in the future. but the idea of a european army would have to be approached over the long term, the a festival. what the europeans can do is a line, the army, so that there complementary. so that they work together, they still wouldn't achieve the necessary level of deterrence against russia. but at least they'd have a foundation on which they could carry out small to medium size emissions on their own. and if you want to do a pre owned small to medium sized dimensions are unlikely to discourage russia in the long term. in january 2024,

nato began its largest truth exercise since the end of the cold war named steadfast defender, 90000 soldiers practicing their reaction to a simulated attack. over several months, the hypothetical opponent, russia, the united kingdom diplomat had said, essentially, every time natal gets into trouble, the russians come along and save us. what's the deal? not this is just nato is now. in fact, returning to the reason the north atlantic block was founded in 1949, also keeping moscow a day of the afternoon. you must good weather put in, likes it or not. russia's war and ukraine has reinvigorated nato. the

is think is, is still good to your opinions and of course is gemini, it's the biggest test that we have faced since the end of the 2nd world war. this is not some minor crisis that we can manage from the side lisles. it's kind of minutes and regardless of external pressure looming risk between europe and the us is unmistakable. europeans are facing completely new challenges. a side because the ministry power of oil, european states put together as simply too small compared to what the us has creating a european defense policy that could function without nato would take decades. not to mention require much more than the 2 percent of g d. p. that's being demanded today. would escape just providing the money isn't enough. things have to be produced. weapon systems would have to be made the kind you up kinda in the dream of today, kind of what this of a helpless for, from the post cold war piece. dividend seems to have been used up.

the defense is once again, part of every day political discourse. been for median fault, i have a family feeling, a lot of us here, our fathers and mothers, we don't want more than, you know, it's the very thing we want to prevent the comes from being so how can it be prevented? so it'd be by preparing for something like it to the end by sending a message to somebody who just over a year ago, carried out and attack on a neighbor piece by saying that audios to that won't work here. so, so i'm here to us kind of what after 75 years, nato is once again confronting the task it faced when it was found in preventing a war the,

the targeting civilians, how russian drove terrorized, a ukrainian city what's behind and why our russian forces doing this our team comes across and outrages claim and decides to investigate those in 30 minutes, d w. flying high yesterday. in the doldrums today,

electric vehicles in europe. more and more, buyers are beginning to doubts claims that these are cheaper to run. hunger is ranking on a long term recovery courting chinese investors and building new factory made in germany. in 19 minutes on d w, the, she's got issues with a lot say well crazy. the

you're watching dw, it was coming to live from berlin. as ro launch has multiple attacks in the west bank, palestinian medics say at least 9 people are dead. he is really army says it is still carrying out operations in some northern town. also ahead on the program. japan, braces for an x spring type phone. car maker toyota has suspended all production as tie food, shaun, shaun approaches and why has pockets on the internet for come. so slow price groups say authorities are stepping up surveillance and censorship.