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welcome to the spresso channel. today in ours military program, we will talk about

what new prospects for ukraine will be the decisions and plans that were discussed in washington on december 6 and 7. and there the representatives of ukraine will discuss. the situation on the battlefield and current defense needs, there was also talk of security guarantees for our country, and at the same time in washington , a large-scale conference of government officials and gunsmiths from the usa and ukraine was held, in which about 350 representatives of defense companies from both countries took part. and the goal was to find ways to speed up the production of weapons for the forces defense of ukraine with the help of the united states of america. according to the results, among other things, a memorandum on joint production in the defense industry was signed and it was also announced that production facilities should be built in ukraine to provide the armed forces of ukraine with the necessary weapons in the areas of air defense of ukraine,

the production of critically needed ammunition, as well as repair and maintenance samples of equipment that have already been transferred to the armed forces of ukraine. so, how will all this... affect defensive and offensive capabilities of ukraine, what should we hope for, and where should we bet on our own capabilities. we will talk about this with professional experts and managers of our companies, who want to strengthen the combat capability of our army at the expense of potential and own projects and initiatives. my name is serhii zgurets, i am the director of the information and consulting company defense express, which together with spresso channels strives. highlight the most relevant trends in the field of the defense-industrial complex and in the field of security, and now to us the first guest joins, this is valentin badrak , director of the army, conversion and disarmament research center, military analyst and writer, mr. valentin, welcome, nice to see and hear you, mr. sergey, congratulations, very happy

to be invited, as always, i would like to start from the first question, but i'm sure you've actually followed these results. negotiations of our delegation in washington, there was the minister of defense, the head of the president's office, and the minister of strategic industries, that is, it was about both military-political and military-technical component, but when we talk about the military-political component, i was first of all interested in this thesis that security guarantees for ukraine were discussed, this is a topic that was raised there after the vilnius nato summit, then it kind of went away. in the background, but we see that the process is somehow taking place, i would like to ask how we now understand these security guarantees from the united states, whether this concept remains that there may be an option that the united states has with israel, where conditionally speaking, there are no security guarantees in

such a direct sense, however, there are agreements that are guaranteed to provide assistance to israel from the united states and must always ensure that the israeli army has the necessary equipment. logical advantage over our opponents, is this option possible for us in the context of these conversations and plans about guarantees for ukraine? in fact, the issue of guarantees. becomes even more urgent because , well, the war is dragging on, and under such conditions, in principle, we cannot, if we are realists, yes, we understand that we cannot count on full membership in nato, which would provide us with such, such full-fledged guarantees, so that we would be protected from attacks in russia, but precisely the guarantees that... can be on the model of israel, are very effective and very interesting,

why, that's why that israel not only receives more than 3 billion dollars annually from the united states, but also constantly introduced joint developments, for example, the aarrow anti-missile defense project, the third version, where the united states spent more than 50% of all allocations for this project, it is very important. and during the war it was very effective cool, because both the united states and israel have these weapons, and when the time begins or, so to speak, yes, that is, hostilities, israel made a request and almost immediately received all the necessary high-tech things, ammunition, primarily for of these anti-missile systems, so this is a very important point, regarding the guarantees in general, of course, and this with... nalo during the summit in july, and it was recorded in the protocol of the big seven, that ukraine should not

only receive resources and receive weapons from western countries, from guarantors of guarantor countries, but also to receive technologies that will allow ukraine's defense-industrial complex to be integrated into the defense potential building system, and this again corresponds to this... israeli model, because it gives us just such opportunities. the only thing i would like to say is that we are very keen that the bilateral guarantees with all the countries, let's say with the united states there or with germany or with france, that they have the form of a legal document and that they clearly define both the figure of the aid and those directions in the technologies we need, e.g. let's say rockets. technology or air defense, this is an urgent need for ukraine right now, it would greatly

accelerate our development, this is especially relevant at a time when washington and berlin are wavering whether to provide us with missiles with a range of 300 kilometers or more, we could make our own, more that, well, i won’t go into details, but we can make both a winged and updated missile that will hit targets on the ground, and... a missile as part of the operational-tactical missile complex project, this is now known and understood in the united states, but a negative point came from the french ministry of foreign affairs this week, they said there that they are finalizing the negotiations on security guarantees and can finish them by the end of the year, but they are extremely unwilling, not interested, that the parliament, first of all, that there are some numbers. that there should be a clear definition of their obligations, and secondly, that the parliament

should ratify it, let's put it this way, yes, and this is a danger for ukraine, because it could become a trap just like the budapest memorandum was, when everyone agreed and everything is fine, but when one country, we know russia, guarantor country, violated its obligations and started a war against. countries, so we would like a legal document. now let's go back to the united states , very interesting things have happened in the united states, in my opinion, and the first two projects, which have already been announced in the military-technical cooperation, namely the adaptation of western-made missiles to domestic, well, not domestic, but to soviet, let's say complexes, buk-300, which is in ukraine, and this project called franken, he actually

got, well, a new life there, yes, actually an agreement has been concluded about it, about joint production, and this is very, very important, and this joint production will be both in ukraine and in the united states, this is a kind of, in my opinion, an intermediate project, if we manage it very well, well together with the second project... the second project is the help of two powerful american companies, as i understand it, primarily with technologies, in deploying the production of 155 millimeter ammunition on the territory of ukraine, ukraine , again, a very important project for us , and the main thing is that it's joint productions, it's very very important thing. i think that the situation here looks the same as with the german company rain metal, which did not start with some high-tech projects, but proposed to produce armored vehicles, which,

let's say, is not new, yes, but joint production, it is certainly about the fact that if ukraine's... defense complex proves in practice that we are powerful partners and can do it all, then more powerful projects can follow, and projects, perhaps, which will be part, part localization, well and let's say, like poland purchased about 500 hymars complexes, yes , high-precision, high-precision artillery and deploys, localizes the production of both launchers in part, yes, yes, and missiles in part, and this is a very important example for us, because in this way we can get technologies, become part of the high-tech world and ultimately gain a high-tech advantage over the enemy, this is the main thing that glass is the content of new security guarantees, because

security guarantees are actually a situation where the enemy does not dare to us to attack, but one option is, yes, this country becomes a member of the nato bloc, and then it does not dare to attack, because it affects the entire union, and the second moment is when ukraine, following the example of israel, will increase its combat potential to such opportunities when, when the enemy will consider it an extremely difficult task to attack ukraine, and will understand that he will immediately have a very powerful defense. answer, we have already started to do something now, yes, i have already mentioned about our missiles, and i want to say that from the month of november the attacks actually started of russian enterprises, this is actually a new stage in this war, because before that, we remember, we received information that there were attacks on, say, airfields,

one, two, three planes were hit and so on, but when we are already talking about the injury. defense enterprises, then this is already , well, let's say, ukraine is showing its teeth sharpened already, already new teeth, and therefore, in fact, such joint productions, they can do a lot for ukraine, and of course, one of the main components, which i would i would like to say, this is the creation of a missile with a range of 1000 km, ukraine is already conducting such developments. and strictly speaking, joint actions with the united states would be, well, a logical opportunity to accelerate the creation of such missiles. another project concerns the french, ukrainian-french military-technical relations, it is the creation together with a french

company based on the antonov enterprise of the creation of such, i would say operational-strategic... drone aharon, which will be able to fly for up to 30 hours, climb to a height of to 10, well, there are nine or so kilometers, and my mother is on board weapons of 1.5 tons, we definitely need such projects, and they are already an integral part of future security guarantees, this is how i see the situation with the issue of security guarantees, mr. valentin, but we understand that the deployment of these capacities in ukraine outside of ukraine, joint projects, they take a certain amount of time, there are certain, let's say, nuances related to the fact that it is necessary faster, but everything is equal, let's say, well, the inertia of these defenses is quite noticeable, and against this background, the ukrainian side appealed to the united states with an expanded package of wishes for other types of weapons, because at the same conference

we are talking about now, where there were representatives of defense industrial enterprises, it was said that... ukraine would like to receive thaad anti-missile defense systems and ballistic defense systems, new aircraft of the f-18 type, apaches, military transport aircraft, what does this mean, can we say that these wishes from the ukrainian side will be satisfied, and what stage, well, changes in the quality of the ukrainian army can we talk about, if these delivery will be after a certain period of time? and here the situation is, of course, complicated with practice and with the transfer to the practical plane, but the move made in my opinion is absolutely correct and correct, which is about what by the way defensek. already wrote today that we need to order more, then we will get at least something, yes, that is, this is a normal, normal theory, because, but i

do not really agree with the determined cost, yes , which was provided, provided by defense express, why, because it is primarily political project, and when we say, for example, about f-18 aircraft, there is a way already receiving australian aircraft, for example, which australia no longer needs will withdraw. actually from the combat stock, and could be obtained through various american compensations, let's say there from the development of the submarine fleet of australia, for example, yes, and obtained not at all for such a huge amount of money that they cost, yes, ah, that's one point, another point , there might be a delay in paying for it, but in the end, in the end, if, say, the united states supplied, well, for a lot of money, let's say, supplied the eyes sed anti-missile systems, yes or sade, this,

i mean in saudi arabia and the united arab emirates we understand why, because this is an issue of oil first of all, and a question of the game and the issue of creating powerful allies in the middle east, then in the end ukraine is transformed on active, on asset. er in the alliance and can become, can claim to become an ally of the united states and other countries, countries, european countries of nato, precisely an ally, and when we move to the stage from partnership to having the status of an ally, then of course the supply of such things can have a huge political and security sense for the donor countries themselves, why, let's remember , uh, when on the last day of november, the german analytical services issued a report that russia needs 6-10 years before war with nato in order

to , to recover, and then a few weeks later, the head of the polish intelligence service said that russia needed 3 years to recover. i 'll say more, i think it's not quite realistic. data, and unfortunately i want to state that the western special services, receiving exceptional, exceptional data from their intelligence cannot draw correct conclusions from this data, i say on behalf of my center that russia needs 2-2 years to attack nato. why so, because russia has a completely different mental dimension and mental potential. westerners than a resident of the western world, therefore, strictly speaking, ukraine too, just as a country with a similar mental

dimension can stop russia, i will even say more that only ukraine can stop russia from this influx, and they should take advantage of this western partners and create a powerful ally from ukraine, that’s roughly how i assess it, then... mr. valentin, i would then like to ask you in more detail about your assessment of the enemy’s potential, because for a long time we talked about the fact that russian missiles are running out, bopripa in there are fewer of them, relatively speaking, there are no personnel reserves there, and now the dynamics are such that, in fact, a certain mobilization of the defense industry, ideological work in russia itself has led to a certain internal transformation of the russian defense industry and it is possible there are changes even in the russian mentality, although we understand that it has always been... war-minded, does this mean then that we have to draw more thorough conclusions regarding the assessment of russian capabilities and from this actually look at

ukraine's own defense strategy and in the perspective of offensive actions, so far, defense is still at the first stage and thus, well , in a different way, it conveys this information to our partners, whom we see, are not fully aware of the reality, on the one hand, they still have big...problems with the mobilization resource, i want, if someone does not believe this, then let them find, there is such a center for the analysis of strategy and technology in moscow, our former colleague, yes, with whom we communicated before the war, and he conducted such the so-called kharkov hearings and posted it on the internet , fortunately for us, from this, from these reports, we learned very clearly that... er, when there was a special hearing during the er hearing, not an incident, but debate with the participation of general boluyevsky, former chief of the general staff of the russian federation,

so... there they clearly said, they clearly said that they, they have huge problems with the integration of the mobilization resource into the troops, that is, they admit that there are undertrained people, and the number is not as much as they would like, they are throwing people, then they determined that they do not have the combat superiority and striking power to make a breakthrough. but this is as of the 23rd year, but at the same time, at the same time, russia is now building up its capabilities, yes, russia continues to sell oil and gas, russia continues to sell even its aircraft, yes, russia, even then, just now there was a ban on the export of russian diamonds, a ban on the purchase of russian diamonds, yes, and there are many more...

russia sells 20 billion dollars a year only to the eu, yes, it is non-ferrous metals there and the same diamonds there and all that otherwise , that's why the situation is very problematic, it is connected with the fact that at this moment russia still has many years of economic resources, i don't want anyone and i don't want to hear even if someone tells me that russia can be there for two or three years. maybe in such conditions as now, as now, how much, for as many years as you want to wage this war , for as long as you want, further , mobilization work has intensified in russia, we know that electronic registers have been introduced, electronic summons have been introduced, and there is a lot of pressure there against the background, against the background of the growth of propaganda, such as stand up , huge country, that all that the west is waging a war to destroy russia, yes, that's why

there will be no problems with... us there either, yes, with the number of people with training, yes, i think the same will happen with the availability of modern equipment, because, well , a lot depends now on china's position after all , the united states has done a lot in the direction of harmonizing relations with china, and various warnings have been issued by leading european countries and the united states. so if, as a matter of fact , the support from china falters, then the situation can be changed, but as of now, as of now, the situation looks like really, uh, having a low level of technology, having a low level of education of people, they will create the effect of an influx and we will constantly face this danger, therefore for ukraine there is indeed logic in

in order to... prepare for a major protracted war, to really create fortifications, to increase defense capabilities, echeloned defense, so that there would be analogues, ukrainian analogues of such surovikin lines, and that the depth there would be 20, or maybe more than 30, in russia there are certain areas where the depth is up to 40 km of areas of echelon defense, so this is one side of the matter, and the other side... the matter of building up high-precision weapons and carrying out high-precision strikes, it seems to me that only high-precision strikes and especially if it will concern of the occupied crimean peninsula and its key facilities, including the crimean bridge and those logistical possibilities, that is , it is necessary to isolate the crimean peninsula and simply destroy all of them. all objects

that are related to war or logistics, this is , strictly speaking, a tactic for the future, well , at least six months, because the advances that the west dreamed of above all were and remain extremely risky, why, the west pushed the ukrainian army into frontal attacks and contributed, so to speak, information. and in various other planes by encouraging this, for ukraine it is an extremely dangerous tactic, because this is a symmetrical war, no one has yet managed to win a symmetrical war with russia, and we do not need it, but to use asymmetric strikes, and to create steps to blur the front line, to create defenses near these lines, to create powerful capabilities .