this means that, again, they are far from talented, and then the futility of these sacrifices becomes. of course, he won't allow himself to do that later. thank you very much, ivan tymochko, a serviceman and head of the council of reservists of the land forces of the armed forces of ukraine, was in touch with us. and now, i hope, oleg sahakyan, political scientist, co-founder of the national platform of stability and cohesion, will be in touch with us. good health, mr. oleg, glad to see you, thank you for... finding time for us on sunday evening, let's start with surprises, no one expected just it was an absolute surprise that putin agreed to run for the position of president of the russian federation, the whole world was taken by surprise by this information, if only everyone knew that he is a decent person and will not even go for a third term, here is already the fifth, but my question is different : i have the impression that he

is taking a lot of risks, that this election, which is scheduled for march, is such a risky game, i understand that i have rose-colored glasses, but any serious operation is not only in the armed forces of ukraine , but, for example, west to the border regions of these russians fighting on the side of ukraine and the seizure of some district center. well, maybe not even the regional center, but some kind of bombing of some objects, i'm not talking about the crimean bridge, but just the heroes in the city of sevastopol, it all reduces its possibilities, it's simple, it's not an election, well, in the usual sense of it words, such a game is risky, and holding no elections is also risky, because he loses legitimacy. what do you say about this,

how risky is the russian establishment now, how risky it is at the head of mr. putin? well, obviously it's a choice now between very bad and bad. going to the elections is bad, not going to the elections is very bad. in the russian interpretation, it is obvious that these elections should now be held under the triumph of the russian victory. and the russians wanted to duplicate putin's crimea-2 and the crimean effect, so that he would triumph in those elections. to win, but the elections are taking place during the war, and in a situation where the idea of ​​a quick war failed this year, and as the blitz of the russian army after the collapse of ukraine, it failed, so on it's a pity, and we state that the idea of ​​the collapse of a quick war on the part of ukraine, the quick liberation of the territories, collapsed with a certain crash, so we understood that these elections will be difficult for putin, this is the first moment, the second moment is what they really are... in full

and total dependence on the dynamics of the war, there will be more pretexts, less pretexts, problems will be created, not created, all this will have a more serious impact on the course of the election campaign, even putin's statements today will very seriously depend on what are the dynamics at the front, whether to pay attention to the front topic at all, or to abstract and try to pretend that there is no war in russia, and the third important point, in my opinion, is that for... to ensure turnout, it is more difficult , because russian society against the background of hostilities has internal migration, and putin had to rebuild russia from authoritarian practices to totalitarian ones for this full-scale invasion. there are many differences, but one key one of them, which is important for us now, is that in an authoritarian society, and the state, rather, society is being pacified, it should be passive, not get involved in politics, the russians were given a tv, a refrigerator and a batek so that there was somewhere to put them.

and they should not be interested in politics, otherwise the poor people from the 90s may return, this fear was hung over each of them, in the totalitarian state that putin was now building in order to be able to drag this war, it is impossible to sit in it anymore, an average citizen must actively support the state, and accordingly the weight and value of the turnout at the elections, it is much greater, and the price for the dictator, if people vote with their feet and do not come to the elections, is enormous. you can draw any number of support, but wait for queues at the polling stations throughout the country, because it is much more difficult, if you do it with a repressive apparatus, then they will start talking about it in the kitchens, and it will cause a backlash, they will not love you for money, sir olezhe, so look, and this is what you said, you confirm it, that it is difficult whether to publicize that the war is going on or not to publicize, they said... there must be a choice, a turnout

big or small, a big choice, and then there is such an idea, not a question, such maybe, i would say, reflections, do you... think, now there will be some kind of meeting with the press or there with supporters, i don't know, they are there have announced how important it will be, we will be able to feel something if we watch it live, will there be anything definite, or do you think that on the contrary they will engage in eye candy, because really today it is necessary to show up, there is a war, and suddenly there will be a defeat, well, at least on some part of the front, that is, here, well, everyone... the word counts victory in the elections , what do you say, to what extent it is necessary to monitor this and how much can we think that he will cancel, for example, the elections, not a day before the elections, well, i will multiply , he will say that, or, or, or, or he

they will be held, that is, i think that we do not yet know for sure whether these elections will take place, because if there are defeats at the front, i think that then we should think about the fact that no, no, no, now is a war, what elections may be, well, these are usually absurdities that the kremlin emits, then i would be afraid to leave the russians after the new year, sometime in february homes, although he was also afraid to be in homes, because in this case terrorist attacks will be carried out, they will be declared guilty of ukrainians, and the elections will be canceled under this pretext, then putin will not want to recognize the war as a front-line situation, but he has to then import into the middle of russia, raise fear and say: look, the support is enormous, i wanted the elections, i wanted to go to the elections, but these scoundrels, etc., they did not allow, in short, we are defending ourselves, i think that until this moment we will act as much as possible

light, such a soft and not very active election campaign, putin will, on the contrary , create smoke and a kind of light anesthesia for society, and... the key topic will be traditional values, he will, as always , fight against lgbt people, liberals and everything else, well, the gardens will start to grow in my mind , i don’t know, in short the processes, i will shave, i already understood your hint, i, in order not to look like a russian, i will shave, that’s all, look, this question is idiotic, i’ll admit it right away, but well , i'll put it anyway, well, let people do something after... the elections, economists say that it is now the last strength, as it was, by the way, we have the experience of yanukovych, when they held the exchange rate even to the last strength, and then after the elections, it means that all this was changed, after the elections they say, that the exchange rate will be released and some say 120 to

the dollar, now 93, others say 150, russian pessimists say 200 to the dollar, others say that there will be a mobilization in order to... now mobilize before the elections, as far as we can think or hope even that there is at least some kind of authoritarianism that turned into totalitarianism, some mo, some possible opposition, some maybe individual voices, that we are not quite satisfied here, how much the post-election situation in russia can be such a sign of mass dissatisfaction in russia. i think that the situation of dissatisfaction in russia is influenced not so much by the russian election as by the american one, and according to the dynamics of the electoral process in the united states, based on this, everyone will decide whether to declare mobilization or not, there are chances, they need to get to the election in the united

states, before that they will play up the theme truce, negotiations, constructiveness , etc., and there a window of opportunity may open, which they want to take advantage of, and according to this... they will see how far they can stretch the economy so as not to collapse the ruble even more, because now there has already been a wave, we remember, from 60 to 90 pennies on the dollar, they even staggered, then rolled back, this was precisely done in order to shoot this topic earlier in the fall, to get through the christmas and new year holidays and not to leave this currency rebound at the end of the election campaign, simple same saying to about it was forgotten at that moment, and they will look at the dependence on it. whether to collapse the ruble further, or to keep it from the last efforts until the time of the elections in the united states, and then it may collapse and the mobilization will also be adjusted to suit themselves. the only thing is that if the situation improves earlier, in terms of international support for ukraine, for example, or something

colossal, striking happens, then of course the russians can go for it even before summer, and in principle everything looks like they are considering the scenario, maybe. .. larger scale, let's say, the dynamics of the war at the end of spring to summer there, that is, next summer they want it to take place under the banner of the russian counter-offensive. by the way, about the american elections, do you personally believe in the possibility , today they started discussing, i don't remember who wrote it, where it was written, that europeans are very worried that the arrival of trump could lead to the withdrawal of the united states from the nato bloc. how realistic is that? i think it is unrealistic as a withdrawal from nato, but realistic that it can create domestic management financial and other crises within the nato bloc, and can minimize the participation of the united states, can de facto at

certain stages freeze the activity of the united states within the framework of nato, and this is a really serious threat. leaving nato, i don't think that is on the table, because of this, after all, the institutional capacity and deterrence in the united states will be enough, but it does not make it easier, as it is called. mr. borel, even more than a year ago, in his program speech, this is the leader. of the eu foreign policy department, he voiced a certain rather good formula the doctrinal thing that the well-being of europe was based on cheap electrical energy from russia, and cheap goods from china and on the delegation of security to the united states, so this cannot continue, because russia has turned energy into a weapon, a global confrontation is starting with china, and the united states states are increasingly less hopeful of a dangerous partner because of the possibility of arrival. trump, and accordingly, europe needs to seek greater independence and self-sufficiency within

itself. and now we see that the germans have obviously come to these theses, certain reflections have done, just as in the european space, at different speeds, different states are doing it, and i would consider these theses about the possible withdrawal of the united states from nato, precisely as echoes of those expert discussions, which are behind closed doors, with the planning of various scenarios around what europe needs. to become more self-sufficient and, accordingly , more active in supporting ukraine. one more question, armenia and azerbaijan seem to have reached some kind of result. armenia remains armenia, as if azerbaijan says: we do not encroach, azerbaijan hangs up its medals, it is satisfied, it conquered everything it wanted to conquer. i understand correctly that this is the end of the story, or there may be some other circumstances, there will not be, that will push

the military industry, say, caucasian countries? the story is not the end, the situation with karabakh, it will not end, because the de facto deportation of the yurmen from there has now taken place, more and more pressure mechanisms are being created in the world on azerbaijan, and still this is not perceived as a solution to the conflict, even if now, for example, karabakh remains there... now decades under the control of azerbaijan, this still will not create a settlement situation, just as it did not create a situation there under the control of the self-proclaimed authorities of karabakh, accordingly, for now this conflict will still continue, normalization can be , let's say, temporary, ah, and more stable between azerbaijan and armenia itself, but it will not mean the settlement of the karabakh conflict, which has its roots there centuries down, and unfortunately, ... in its nature it is very, very complex, for example, we can now see that the weaker

the collective security system and the world system in general, the more these chronic old volcanoes, conflicts are waking up in venezuela and guyana, therefore just a textbook example of a 200-odd-year-old conflict , and vinete wakes up with walkie-talkies once every 50-60 years, and he woke up again, so i wouldn't put a stop to karabakh today. three points for now, and the azerbaijan-armenian situation will continue. azerbaijan is now going to negotiations and shows a certain constructiveness, in particular under the pressure of the fact that the united states will enter a new budget year. and this year , the moratorium on sanctions against azerbaijan was already lifted. now both europe and the united states are actively discussing the introduction of sanctions. azerbaijan wants to avoid this. thank you very much, oleg sahakyan, political scientist, co-founder of the national platform of resilience and unity. serhiy

migdal, former officer of the international of the israel police department , a security expert, with us, we will talk, i will speak in ukrainian, mr. serhiy will speak in russian, as i understand it, but then i stand within the limits of ukrainian legislation, he stands within the limits of his own legislation, as he wants yes. he doesn't speak and we don't break anything. thank you, mr. serhiy, for finding time for us, and now i have some questions, if you already know.

russia and iran, which go against the interests of israel, and naturally, israel has the right to express this. i'm sure, что как there was always some part of the conversation that doesn't appear in press releases, it's usually the most important. as far as i know, yes, it has already reached through the leadership of massad, through the ambassador of israel, through the chairman of our

national security council to patrushev, that if, that is basically a warning. a warning to iran and syria through moscow, which consists in the fact that if hizballah leaves the framework of the borderline, comparatively low-level clashes that are taking place now and opens a full-scale war, then this means a warning that israel will then feel that its hands have been completely cut off in syria and then will no longer feel obliged to those commitments that netanyahu personally made to putin back in the thirteenth, and then again in the fifteenth year strikes will begin not only on pro-iranian militias, but also on hizbollah columns that carry weapons for themselves from iraq to the syrian border or on warehouses unloaded there by iranian planes, where they unload these cargoes, weapons for hizballah, and israel will start striking precisely at the main objects of the syrian regime, at its military airfield, destroy

its aircraft, helicopters, and main military bases . greatly weakened it and put it again in a difficult position, while we know that several groups at once, and the first of them is tahrir al-shams, in the north of syria, is preparing another, as it were, offensive request, and of course, for them, the main problem is not only russia's help and hezbollah fighters fighting on the side of syria, but most importantly the syrian air force and helicopters, and something that they don’t have at all, and something that very strongly always restrained their offensive and attempts to defeat assad, israel has always been afraid of putin, precisely not to touch this,

because putin and the kremlin have influence on assad and his regime , he can somehow influence hezbollah, which depends on him, since the main supply of everything from bullet fuel to shells and rockets comes through syria. sergey, look, and then i will return to the visit of mr. putin, which is written by the israeli press, but first it is true that they say that terrorists

surrender en masse in the gaza strip, throw down their weapons, raise their hands, and is it really en masse, because five people can raise their hands one by one on one section of the front, someone will take a picture of them and look yes, there are a lot of them. to what extent do you confirm or deny this information about the mass surrender ? i still do not see a real mass capture, one must understand that there are, as it were , two separate parts, one part is the capture of terrorists, the second part is the arrest or detention of hamas activists. after all, hamas in the gas sector is like the communist party of the soviet union in the ussr, it's not only...

these people you see are either hamas fighters, either personal, or their activists, they are hamas fighters themselves, their real ones soldiers, there are not so many average prisoners, very many killed, yes, for fans

of this genre, you can find hundreds of videos in telegram with the corpses of hamas fighters, some in civilian clothes with assault rifles, some in their black uniforms, eh, we just have israel is forbidden to show it, the body is like that it's someone else's, it's not accepted according to our television rules, but in telegram. everything can be found, they really have it, especially among elite fighters, here is a sub-division of hamas, very high motivation, we are talking about islamic fanatics, yes, many of them, there are whole squads, for example, death squads, which, in addition to a machine gun and a grenade launcher, carry even a suicide belt, sometimes they send when they see a group of israeli soldiers, or they send, for example, a suicide bomber to try to run up to them and explode, this the tactics, in fact, that igil used in mosul, in raqqa, in other places in syria and in iraq, yes, nothing, but...

this is being discussed in israel, and as far as the influence of russia, which was once the soviet union, it was real in the near future an influential country, and now, and now yes, everything has changed quite a lot, because people hardly remember, but in the soviet union , it had such a dichotomy in the middle east, on the one hand, it had its own, as it were, clients of the state, which it fully supported and even fed, and... then already in power putin was written off their debts, yes, such as egypt, syria, northern yemen, well, there was iraq, which

pursued a more multi-vector policy, but also... supported very strongly by the soviet union, as is known, but libya, of course, again with a multi-directional policy, but first of all a supporter, an ally of the soviet union, on the other hand there were pro-western monarchies and not that they had bad relations with him, with most of them there were no relations at all, many of these countries, because they were very anti-communist from an ideological point of view, yes, being muslim traditional monarchies, where communism is often a member. communist party, some of them were punished with the death penalty according to the criminal code, then there were no relations with these countries, even what was very badly damaged after the 1977 soviet invasion of afghanistan, namely the coalition of muslim countries led by saudi arabia and pakistan, after all, they were in many ways behind the support of the afghan mujahideen against the soviet army, as is known

that the saudis... promised that for every dollar that the americans would give to support the afghan mujahideen against the soviet army, they would give their dollar, but pakistan naturally offered training, weapons and its territory for raids, it is clear that since the soviet union ceased to exist, the independent russian federation, independent ukraine appeared, these relations are already completely different, all this ideological, the mood has completely died down, now it is primarily about interests and... and russia, especially when putin, i spent a lot of energy and strength to develop and improve relations with saudi arabia, with other monarchies, with jordan, among other things, again with egypt, even though egypt was considered a client of the united states for many years, after the discord between saddam and brezhnev, we see that it

generally bore fruit. there are many reasons for this , yes, because i understand that such countries as saudi arabia, the emirates, bahrain, amman, jordan, they have their own interests, they, many of them, by the way, have good relations, for example, with ukraine, with president zelensky, but, nevertheless, very first of all, of course, they observe their interests, among these interests there are many things, there is also international trade, there is also the maintenance of high oil prices. such a country, for example, as the emirates, it is very interested in becoming a center, well, both in business life and in circumventing sanctions for russian businessmen and russian companies . probably ukraine too, but you can't do anything, but there's nothing personal here , it's definitely just business, so to speak, some personal history has been added to it,

which... is connected with the fact that the tone, among moderate arab states, is set by saudi arabia. i will come back to israel a little, when we saw this peace process, which has been going on for several years, it did not happen immediately between such countries as the arab emirates, bahrain, morocco, oman and others, with israel. in fact , prince muhammad ben salman was behind all this, without his word, without his permission, without the green light nothing would have happened to him, he simply sent them ahead of him. since saudi arabia is a very conservative monarchy , as you know, his father, king abdullah, who is strict in general , is still the son of the almost old king of the late first king, who is very conservative and does not like to change anything, like us. we know that the reformer is precisely his son, that is , everything depends on them, the same thing is meant in relations with russia, here it turned out, because muhammad bin salman feels

что его... the famous saudi billionaire alone on the hashtag of the most famous arms dealers in the world, who was, among other things , supplying soviet weapons bought all over the world, namely the afghan mujahideen, with automatic weapons, rpgs, machine guns, dictated in this sense, it is a little like the retribution of muhammad ben salman, although, as we have seen, biden, especially in the last hour and a half, has been asking to mend relations with him, but...