that is, the faults negatively affected the work of all the roads that connect ukraine and romania, and therefore allow receiving certain goods from this country to ukraine, let's say, they can lead to, a single marathon continues, liliya nalyagaka works live for you, we have news as of midnight, a historic decision. the european council decided to start negotiations with ukraine on joining the eu. moldova will also start similar negotiations, but hungarian prime minister viktor orban left the hall during the voting. about this the guardian reported. almost immediately after the decision, orbán published a video on social networks. there, the hungarian prime minister repeated what he said ukraine was not ready for negotiations on joining the bloc.

after this step there will be further ones. yes, about the decision of the european council, president zelenskyy said and added that ukraine has already proven more than once what we are capable of. he congratulated all ukrainians with an important result on the way to joining the eu. the president emphasized that everything we are currently achieving would be impossible without the courage of our people, which inspires the whole world. the day before, the head of state visited germany, but volodymyr zelenskyi recorded his address from lviv. let's listen to what the president said. i wish you health, dear ukrainians, dear ukrainian women, an important day , a week, important were visits, many meetings and negotiations, even more not public work with friends and skeptics, as well as with everyone, ukraine always defends itself, gains what what is needed, and even when someone doubts, we do not give up, but convince fight, fight, fight. that's how it

works, and it's really a very strong result for ukraine, for all of europe, another step towards ukraine's full membership in the eu. i thank everyone who supported us, carried out exactly what we agreed on, thank you to everyone in ukraine, to our team, who did everything necessary, we fulfilled the recommendations of the european commission, we removed doubts today about the decision to start negotiations on joining the eu. after this step. there will be a lot of work ahead, to integrate the state, all institutions, all norms, all this to the european union, but we will do it ukraine has already proven more than once what we are capable of, there will be another victorious decision, there will be a time when we can celebrate ukraine's accession to the eu, now many in ukraine are in a high mood, and this is important, this is motivation, i congratulate all of you, each and every one with what succeeded, all of us succeeded, whose unity...

ukraine strengthens the unity of europe, i want to especially thank all the boys and girls, men and women who fought and are fighting for ukraine, who are now defending the will of ukraine in battles, who help our soldiers, treat, train, import weapons, produce weapons, everything we achieve would be impossible without this heroic courage of our people, our people, which so inspires the whole world, all of us, i... returned to ukraine, now in lviv with a decision on the european union and other things, which will strengthen air defense, there will also be more support packages, there was a good summit with the nordic countries, our friends, i thank you for your support, strong decisions, denmark a billion-dollar package for the defense of the sky, artillery, much more. norway, a new package, more than 400 million dollars, including air defense, finland. also cooks

a new package, iceland is preparing a program of long-term financial support, a very important one, sweden also has a new package, there is a strong statement, the ukraine plus northern europe summit , another political projectile that brings our negotiations closer, a visit to argentina, in fact, we are restarting relations with the entire region of latin america , thank you for hearing clear words of support and of course the united states, today i was at the base in wiesbaden, in the name... there is located the command of the us forces in europe and africa, powerfully there our military guys work, of course there were meetings with partners that will strengthen us and the visit to washington, president biden, his team , secretary austin, general brown, congress, both chambers, both parties, speaker johnson, i heard words of respect for our people, for our struggle, important advice, important agreements , i thank everyone for the support, i will continue. our work, i expect that the congress

will soon pass the necessary decision, we must win, so that it does not happen, we work, drink and increase our strength. the strength of our beautiful ukraine. believe in your own strength. glory to ukraine. the senate adjourned canikoli and may hold a meeting next week to negotiate aid for ukraine. reuters journalist tommy lund reported this on social networks. let me remind you that the us president is asking for $61 billion in aid for ukraine. but the republicans are blocking the adoption of the decision, motivating it by the fact that it is necessary first. to bring order to the borders, the biden administration found a compromise, proposing to allow the deportation of migrants at the southern border of the united states under a simplified scheme, but only on days when a particularly large number of people arrive at the border. 12th package of sanctions

eu leaders agreed against russia, reuters reports. the information was confirmed by radio liberty's editor for europe, rikard jozwiak. according to his information, this package. will be formally adopted in the coming days. let me remind you that eu ambassadors could not reach an agreement on the 12th package of eu sanctions against russia due to austria's position. this is the end of the news release. i pass the floor to my colleagues. the marathon lasts around the clock. he can't afford it, or he doubts it, and you... well, you do it, give it as a gift, and it will definitely be positive a reaction that will improve the mood and improve overall positivity and will be remembered later, perhaps for a whole year, that even unexpectedly, i did not even think, here i got a trimmed christmas tree, what

i had dreamed of in principle, but still i haven't realized my dream yet, that's why i'm doing it, it definitely needs to be done, and it's very positive, but about the occasion. to excise goods, this decision is not made so quickly, so no one should think that it will be a gift for the new year, there are certain negotiations, they are established, there are certain our obligations to europe, for example, on tobacco products, we have a plan, it rises, increases accordingly, because we harmonize our excise taxes with the excise taxes of the european union, generally during the war. if we talk about a certain neutrality of tax increases, then precisely the increase in excise duty is minimal, which affects the ukrainian economy as a whole, but if we also talk about tobacco products, then i can note the following here that today they are quite cheap,

if you compare with the cost there a dozen eggs, with bread, which you buy there by a kilogram of meat, you will see that they are cheaper, so in this context, the adoption of such a... decision by the government is justified and correct, it is something for which you can get additional funds, taking into account , that all our taxes go to the army, then this is precisely such taxation, it is justified and does not hit the wallet of ukrainians. mr. ivan, if we talk about our certain obligations to the european union in the context of fixing prices there, regulating prices for certain groups of goods, then in connection with our movement towards... what other increases can be expected, so if we are talking about tobacco products, there are, for example, yes, and there are some other groups of goods that can increase in the context of our european integration, the situation with the monthly balance of ukraine, when they see that last year

we had a negative balance of 7 billion dollars, and now, i mean in 10 months, and now 22 billion dollars, first of all i still expect that there will be an increase in cars and ... other, let's say, goods that are more related to the lux class, why, because through them we we have a situation where our partners tell us that we help you with money, and we see what they are going for, you buy these expensive goods, so to reduce the demand for them, in my opinion, first of all, you need to raise the prices so that people after all, they did not squander their money on them, but at least somehow they started to save, so i expect that they will grow. the price of them, plus we see that the demand for them has increased, as for other products, well, we'll see, because really, so far, what i'm so proud of is the negative balance that we have as of 10 months, and i understand that, in fact, what are the thoughts

of our partners at this time, who say, well, listen, we help you defend yourself, but it turns out that you are engaged in improving your living conditions there, which is not... a true signal , which , by the way, may have a negative impact on decision-making regarding future assistance to ukraine in 2024, which is already almost here, so i think that... the growth will be in the categories of these luxury goods, as for other goods, well , you have to look here, because you know, when any price increases, it is necessary to understand whether there will be people who will be ready to buy these goods at these new prices, because it is easy to raise prices, and the other question is what will happen if you, by doing so, hit the demand for certain goods and which you hardly need, uh, well, so do we, i'm sorry, please, we also understand, we remember that the increase is actually, well , for example, prices for certain categories. goods may not lead to the desired result and the refusal of the population there, for example, from harmful

habits there, yes, but may lead, for example, to a black market, which can be formed if yes, for example, they will rise, well , for example, i am not even talking about alcohol now, well, in general, yes, if, if the idea is that people do not buy, then will it work like that? but i do not agree with the idea, indeed we have already experienced our law of the late 80s. when this led to the fact that a significant part of the alcohol trade actually went into the gray area, that is, not controlled by the state, from which the state did not receive taxes, therefore, one should be very careful about this price increase, realizing that we can really lose markets that will move to , let's say, areas not controlled by the state, so they will hit our country's budget even more, ugh, mr. ivan, from alcohol to gifts, i just noticed out of the corner of my eye that you reacted very

briskly when we talked about gifts under a christmas tree about the fact that you can actually take care and make an effort now, so that you can have time for joy in the future, and not run around in stores in search of leftovers, if you were asked what gifts you would advise to buy, knowing the situation in the country , as an expert on international maybe you have a professional view on this issue from a professional point of view? oleksiy always adds seriousness to my questions. please, i agree with mr. malya, first of all. yes, yes, go on, mr. ivan, go on, please. yes, yes, yes, yes, i wanted to say that yes, i wanted to agree with the phallic mile that the occasion really, when we talk about gifts, it should be. an individual thing, but it is desirable to look for it, let's say, not at the last moment, because at

the last moment it is very rare to find something that will suit a person individually, so you know, right now it will be st. nicholas, and right after st. nicholas, you have to, let's say, look closely at what kind of gift is suitable for this or that person, whom you want to make nice, here, by the way, i also agree that yes, the war definitely has a negative effect, at the same time by... they bring us back to the fact that life goes on and give notes of positivity, which we definitely need, especially in these conditions, so here you really need to look for, let's say, what suits the person you want to please , be it a member of your family or a loved one a friend, or just a person whom you want to cheer up, because you know, once upon a time, as we recall there, partly the soviet years. in previous periods there was such a joke that how you start the year is how you will spend it, so

the more you make people happy in the new year period, the more people, this year will pass happily, and if there are many people who will have a happy year, then maybe the country will receive happy news, which in principle we will absolutely all wish for on new year's eve, and maybe this year this victory will be will come to ukraine, absolutely. i will add, regarding what is passing, that the soviet era has passed, how well, true, yes, unequivocally, i would think that here, yes, and right away it is very good that mr. ivan mentioned, of course, those thanks to whom ukrainian families can gather at their tables, we are incredibly grateful to those defenders of ours who are currently protecting our land as part of the defense forces, and we also thank and thank their families for their patience, who probably will not be able to gather. at the table during the new year holidays, of course, we also remember we will always remember those who will never

return, friends, remember that it is worth supporting the armed forces not only with words, but also with deeds, as i'm sure you all have already learned in these almost two years, let's let's also talk about one aspect that will affect our life in the next year, it is of course the exchange rate of the hryvnia, as far as possible , well, let's do it, of course, i won't ask the question of what will happen to the dollar and what the exchange rate will be next year, because this no thanks affairs to predict, however, taking into account the current circumstances, ms. ilya, what do you say, is there now prerequisites for a significant jump in the exchange rate, or for now, well, if things continue like this. continue like this, then we will have an approximately stable level. well, look, first of all, i would like to say that now the exchange rate is completely controlled by the national bank, well, completely. if we take the economic prerequisites, then we would have a slight devaluation of the hryvnia, not 36, as we currently

see on the cashless market, but somewhere around 37-38. and it would be justified, but the policy of the national bank, it is currently excellent, and therefore, he very rigidly, well, i think that is not entirely justified, keeps the course at this level. for next year, i emphasize, we have record gold and currency reserves of the country. if the national bank decides to keep the rate sufficiently, let's say, stable for a long period, it has every opportunity to do so. even with the challenges that exist, this is also the issue of the border, this is also the issue of, say, the delay of aid from the united states of america, this is also another issue, but the reserves at the national bank are more than enough, so in this context i take special risks, based on the way the national bank is currently behaving,

that is, on the foreign exchange market, it is firstly, and secondly, based on those financial cushions that... it has, it has significant financial cushions of 39 billion, then of course in this context, he can calmly hold the rate for a long time at the level of 36/37 as much as possible in this interval and not worry at all, that is, he can calmly satisfy any demand that is currently on the part of the consumer, so there are no reservations whatsoever and there is no no serious risks whatsoever. uhu, thank you, mr. ilya, ilyana skhodovsky, economist, head of the analytical direction of the ans network, joined our broadcast, thank you not only for your forecasts, but in general for giving our viewers a part of the new year's mood, and ivan us is also with us, and let's remind, let's say that this year it was, let's say, if we talk about

currency prices, about gasoline, we saw certain changes, and from currency to gasoline, we just... what does this affect prices in general and for products and food, etc. in principle, for everything, will we see any changes here at all, if we talk about general global processes , geopolitical, let's say this, are there any prerequisites for fuel to become more expensive, because let's remind our viewers there that these are petroleum products, and if gasoline becomes more expensive there, oil may become more expensive, and this it is beneficial to russia, and here i laid such and such a chain, so let's go on , i will lay it, and we will lay it. together with yaroslav zhalilo, economist, deputy director of the national institute of strategic studies, mr. yaroslav, we congratulate you, congratulations, good, so that delay, your forecasts with what will happen on the fuel market, what prices to expect in the near future, what, or rather, what will affect prices, both locally and on a large scale?

well, first of all , the fuel market is affected by the price of petroleum products and oil on the world market, in our case it is also added... this is a matter of logistics, so we see a situation where the logistics of delivery are complicated, and today the vast majority of fuel is delivered by cars to ukraine through blocking the polish side of the ukrainian border, this may create certain risks for logistics, at least some experts talk about it, on the other hand, we have an interesting situation, when now a number of leading gas station chains have even introduced such discounts, that is, in principle. it is obvious that they have certain balances and they are ready to contract new volumes of fuel at lower prices, obviously this is also connected with world fuel prices, so if this logistical factor does not intervene, then i think that in principle the situation on the fuel market will be more or less stable in principle, ugh, mr. ivan, i i promised to give you my word, but i took it and interrupted, and

for that i apologize, mr. ivan, so if we are talking like this about how much money from the sale. in particular, will russia be able to get oil next year, is there a trend in this, because we understand that it also affects the continuation of the war on the part of the aggressor in a certain way? definitely, that is, for russia, let me remind you that this 27 so-called group in foreign trade, it just determines approximately 2/3 of the income from russian exports, and therefore they are strongly oriented towards it, but here is another one, let's say yes, under under detail, that's what they get. this money, because you know, here is such a very interesting example of india, when russia significantly increased the supply of petroleum products, primarily oil to india, if they had it there in 2021. 8 billion, then in 2022 it was already over 40 billion dollars, at the same time we count it in dollars, and in fact, due to the fact that russia declared that it does not want to have, let

's say, trade in friendly currencies, as they countries believe, then they sold india oil in rupees, and this led to a situation when india agreed, she said that she would pay in rupees, she actually paid in rupees, at the same time, due to the fact that rupees... are not a convertible currency, they deposited this money in a special account of russian companies in indian banks and without the permission of the central bank for india, this money could not simply go to russia, because more than that, when russia wanted to exchange these rupees for other currencies, india told them that no, that we cannot do it, at least the central bank of india did not give the appropriate permission, so actually from one on the other hand, for russia, these are resources and they er... are largely supporting this war by selling their oil, on the other hand you have to look at the liquidity of what they get, because the example with india has shown that what russia is painting, that they

got so much money, in fact it can be noted that they received them in, with all due respect to india , a not very liquid currency, so here we will watch and we will watch, by the way, with regard to oil prices, a significant factor will be how relations between the united states of america and the vnf will develop. you somehow know a little about this country forgot, at the same time in terms of deposits , explored oil deposits, it is the largest country in the world, more than even the kingdom of saudi arabia, but oil production there is relatively very low, why, because this country chose, in my opinion, a very contradictory path of its development with an anti-american poll rate, and because of this rate they are not getting technology that will allow them to increase oil production, there are already bells that... venezuela will move away from this policy, and the more it returns to the world oil market, the less will be proper its price despite the crisis in the middle east

that we are observing, and the lower the price of oil in the world, the less, accordingly , russia will receive, and here there will be a certain dejvie situation that the whole world observed at the end of the 1980s, when thanks to agreements then the kingdom of saudi arabia and... the united states managed to lower oil prices so much that the soviet union not only could not withstand this competition, it collapsed altogether. ugh. mr. yaroslav, we already talked a little on our broadcast about what will happen with exchange rate, in particular with the hryvnia-dollar pair. but i want to ask, of course, and hear your expert opinion. we remember what you believe the nbu recorded from the beginning of the war. exchange rate of the hryvnia, in october he released it, everyone was worried that it would somehow affect and the price tags for the dollar would creep up, this did not happen, now we see a certain

even weakening of the dollar, if we talk about the forecast not in the coming weeks, not in the coming weeks, but to talk about the forecast for the hryvnia and the dollar for the next year, 2024, so that we and our viewers also have certain benchmarks on which should be considered, so what would you predict? what are the recommendations you see, it very much depends on many factors and, first of all, for ukraine, of course, on the amount of international aid, if you take the budget for the 24th year, then there is a deficit in it, it is an objectively determined deficit, because we are the funds which we earn inside the country and pay the budget, we direct it to the needs of resisting russian aggression, everything else is paid for by borrowing, and primarily by external borrowing, so... next year ukraine has the government plans to receive 41 billion dollars of foreign loans, not all of them have yet been contracted, well, clearly foreseen, there are still

uncertain expectations, and a lot depends on whether we will be able to fully finance this deficit, well, i would, let's say, optimistically i took this direction because we have the experience of previous years and we see that the world's understanding of the fact that... ukraine needs support because it opposes the spread of russian influence in the global dimension is not weakening in the world, but of course there is uncertainty, yes from if it is not possible to fill some part of it, of course, that ukraine will then have to resort to certain steps regarding internal financing, it may be connected with the emission, with other means that are not very pleasant for the financial system, then of course, the course, that is it is risks for the course, also we have from it. one plan in the budget of the 24th year, which is based on expectations that the exchange rate will be 40.7 hryvnias per dollar on average for the year. we already have a precedent, when in

the current year, too, the rate was sufficient. well let's say, low fixed actually, the hryvnia was stronger than planned, it is possible that the hryvnia will be stronger next year as well, so i would rate this rate at 4.7, i would not consider it as a target, rather it is a kind of pessimistic forecast, but i will repeat myself again , a lot depends on the support of partners and, of course, on the situation at the front. mr. ivan, we remember that ukraine was shaken by economic crises several times. which suddenly came to them, as always, no one was prepared, and if we are not talking about a crisis, brought about by the war, the global financial crisis, well let's say this, yes, something has not happened for a long time, do we currently have the prerequisites for that, yes, but maybe now mr. ivan will say that we need to prepare just in time, and maybe it's not i'm just giving advice to our viewers, we can actually recall the cover of the economist, where you remember, the currency rates went down, and maybe this is also a certain program.

by the way, yes, mr. ivan, what would you say , are there any dynamics or tendencies towards the fact that, maybe now we need to urge our viewers to prepare for a possible financial crisis , you know, there is a man, norel roubini, who every year always said that there would be a crisis, and several times he really guessed, so actually you can expect it every year, but it is unlikely to happen, until things, there is a certain theory that this cycle of crises, which was at first, let me remind you, at the end of the 90s, then there was 2008, and that the next one should have been exactly 2020, at the same time, if the covid had taken over these crisis phenomena, and thanks to this global pandemic covid, we avoided this global crisis, which everyone, let's say, certain analysts, not all, but certain, expected, so now, it seems to me, this expected crisis has passed,

and the next one, which may be... there in 10 or plus or minus years, we still have to wait for it, so personally i do not expect that there will be any such global crisis in the near future, they will certainly be further, because unfortunately , mr. yaroslav, this is the story, from you, we know that you are in a hurry , we have to let you go, some expectations from you, a feeling that a crisis may come, in particular in the next year, they are, i understand that we will not bank, but ugh, yes, the world today... is entering such a rather interesting phase, when in fact in the majority, the vast majority of countries in the world today , policies aimed at security are being activated, including to strengthen armaments, to strengthen one's own armies, this is connected with sufficiently active infusions into the economy, i would say that at this such an upward stage , the probability of a crisis decreases, because the economy is heating up, as it was heated up at the beginning of kovid due to

funds... in support of what mr. ivan said, this is another step, it absolutely does not mean that this will protect the economy from the global economy from further crises, on the contrary, it can increase volatility, but only when this rising wave increases , therefore precisely due to this factor, i believe that today the probability of a crisis is lower than, let's say, ever. ugh. thank you, mr. yaroslav. yaroslav zhalilo, economist, deputy director of the national institute of strategic studies, was together with us. at this hour, thank you for your expertise. of course, when talking about finances , when talking about our budget, one cannot fail to mention something that also worries our viewers, of course, this is money for social expenses, yes, for pensions, for salaries of state employees, for probably subsidies, right? well, let 's run through it in order, so to speak , in general, are there any prerequisites now, we understand that our budget is completely subsidized, yes, half, we have half the expenses , double the expenses. that

exceed our incomes, so shall we see on the background of rising prices for certain groups of goods and growth, for example, of pensions, minimum wages, etc., or until the war, let's say, in the near future, can we forget about it? of course, political statements about the need to raise pension salaries, they will be, at the same time, you know, i think that first of all our government should be guided by the fact that a really significant part of our expenses is covered by our partners, actually we can see this elementary in the budget , when our income there is 1.8 trillion hryvnias, and expenses are 3.4 hryvnias, that is, this difference it is necessary to cover at the expense of foreign aid and say, it is more correct to ask for external aid against the background of statements that we will increase pensions or salaries, in my opinion this is not the right way, because the partners will say, first you yourself, let's say this,