already a certain adaptation, after all , i would like to calculate the reasons for the time being that next year the dynamics will at least not be worse, the risk, as i understand it, is the risk of not receiving financial, financial assistance, external financial assistance, i think that it is not high enough, because currently we have a proper flow of macrofin funds for the current year, plus funds from the international monetary fund, the european union is quite optimistic. tic about a positive decision on macrofin next year, well these well-known 50 billion, yes, but there are also additional agreements with other countries, already individual countries of europe, and other countries of the world on aid, so i think that there will be no problem here, but even if there is some interruption there for one- two months , some of the time periods, then it may well be closed at the expense of the national economy’s own capabilities, we need to work on this, but it is critical... i would

n’t call it a fall, but the ukrainian ministry of finance also said that probably next year we need will be less financial support from our partners, yes, we are talking about a reduction of about several billion dollars, which is also evidence, because it was, if i remember the numbers correctly, about 41 billion, and now it is a little more than 37, uh , well, i haven't seen these latest figures, because it was actually about, obviously it was about the fact that part of the deficit is planned to be closed at the expense of internal reserves, as you know, now the international monetary fund is in this memorandum, which was finalized and presented by the last , especially at this time, a few days ago it was said that the government should undertake to increase the revenue part of the budget by another 0.5 of gdp, i think that this is exactly what is being said, that due to this , the need for deficit financing should be reduced, in general it is indeed 41 billion, well the coverage, let's say, it... was filled after the adoption

of the law on the state budget, and well , actually, i repeat, it is possible that optimistic, it was enough that regarding this estimate, moreover, as experience shows, let's say the same current year, during year, additional support resources are formed in external ukraine, plus now there is a discussion of the possibility of channeling russian funds seized in the countries of the civilized world to the benefit of ukraine, this is also such a new possibility. to be absolutely a trend, which has already passed the conversation, has already moved into the practical plane. and you, as an economist, now see the prerequisites for the national bank to turn on the printing press and print the hryvnia? the concept of a printing press and printing a hryvnia, it, i am very sorry, but it is so very ordinary and it has nothing to do with any real economic processes, money is emitted every year, it's just that they happen in different directions. in the 22nd year.

the national bank directly bought the government's debt securities, and because of this money entered the economy. in the 23rd year , the national bank bought back to the gold and foreign exchange reserves those funds that came to ukraine in the form of macro-financial assistance. at the expense of this , he actually threw additional money into circulation. in the second year, he withdrew them through certificates of deposit from commercial companies banks therefore, it is only about how exactly the fueling of the economy will take place. of course, the minimum is less inflationary - this is such a mechanism when there is no direct direct financing of the government deficit, but according to the opinion of many experts, i agree with this opinion, actually nothing catastrophic will happen, even if the national bank part of this debt, which need to cover, will cover the purchase of government securities directly at its own expense. the international monetary fund, i will mention this one again memorandum, he admitted that... such a possibility

exists, and emphasizing, in fact, emphasizing that the sequestration of budget expenditures will have a much worse effect for the economy, for slowing down the economy there and so on, domestic demand, than such a subsidy for, rather than the risk arising from a bribe from a national bank. well, since the minister of finance was mentioned, let's hear his words in this context: ukrainians should reduce the consumption of expensive imported goods. in the case of transfer of the economy to military rails. such a scenario is considered as one of the possible ones for 2025. minister of finance serhiy marchenko stated this at a discussion panel dedicated to the challenges and prospects of the next year. he reminded that ukraine's military budget is 40 billion dollars, while the enemy's budget is 120 billion dollars. so far, we live in a rather specific reality, when everything is good, we have stability, macroeconomic, course.

but it is this reality that will need correction if we really want to move on military rails, this is a limitation. consumption , public consumption, we need to reduce our consumption, i think, several times, because we mainly consume imported goods and services, this determines our economic potential, but the transition to military rails in general is being discussed very actively, especially by economists in to ukraine, how far are we now in this process and how will every ukrainian feel that... is the economy already in a state of war, wartime? the transition of the economy to military rails has already partially taken place, he continues happen, it should consist in our case in the fact that it is necessary to ensure the capacity of the economy, to produce those goods that are necessary for defense, i.e. these are weapons,

there is equipment, ammunition and so on, what can be done, and without the risks that it will be destroyed by the enemy at the stage of production, and the second, which is no less, and maybe even more important, is to ensure... the ability of the economy, to form a financial resource, so that all this can be produced over a long period of time, so that it is possible to ensure the functioning of the country , so that it is formed the very same income part of the state budget, which we have today is completely directed to the needs of defense, in the event that there is a slowdown in the economy and it is not able to pay taxes in this way, then this will be no less a terrible blow to the defense capacity than, say , the inability to provide our army with weapons . in this context, i do not hesitate to comment on the statement of the minister of finance, it is a little unclear to me, purely in terms of terminology, ugh, hell, and if we talk about what we heard the day before from president zelensky, that on one military man is needed to work six civilians, as far as it is in our

realities and the situation that, in principle , provides such a scheme, that is, what i mean, can we guarantee that with an increase in... the number of troops, we have all the same, the number of employed people, taking into account the topic we started with, unemployment, will either increase, or at least stay at the same level so that the state has the means to provide new military personnel, well , you need to understand that the concept of employed people is being discussed here in a broad sense, it is not only about people who officially work there somewhere, as salaried employees, and we are talking about entrepreneurs, too. generate income, who also pay taxes, that is, in general , this is a proportion that is clear, it is explained by the fact that in order to pay the financial support of the military defense forces, to provide them with ammunition and so on, financial resources are needed, that's what i was just

saying, well, the calculation is 1:6, well, apparently someone did it, it's hard for me to confirm or deny it, it seems to me that it looks absolutely correct, and actually it what we see today. if we take the pre-war period, when we had a total of 19 million people of working age, and at the same time, those who were officially counted as employed, i am afraid to be wrong, i think it was less than 10 million, it is clear that some people have lost their jobs today , we already talked about it, but in principle, for such and such a number of people, well, such a proportion with the size of the army, which we know about today and about... we say, it will be kept somewhere, that is, the next thing president yesterday, one clarification, but part of the working-age population that we take into account is already in the ranks of the armed forces, definitely, definitely, accordingly, where are they, where are they, where are they, after all, among those who receive a salary , does

the revenue also accumulate to the state budget or not, do we take them out under the brackets of this scheme, this formula, no, look, what the president said was about the ratio of people. who today are fighting for our freedom, for our future, and those people who today rely on the functioning of the economy, and president kotra emphasized that in order for us to adequately respond to the enemy and achieve victory, the economy must work, work intensively and efficiently. and if we talk directly about military personnel, they are also, in principle, a part of this economy, because they receive money support, this money support, it moves somewhere, something is bought, the money goes to their families . are also consumers if they are in ukraine, if they are for the border, well, money leaves the country, if some imports are bought, well, they also leave the country, if they are imported drones, well, it is necessary for victory, in the end there are problems with the fact that a certain part of this money, it actually hangs today in the banking system on card accounts, and

banks today are essentially excluded from commercial lending to the economy, this is a real problem, that is, on the one hand, we need billions of dollars to support ukraine's external support, and on the other hand , these... let it be in hryvnias today hung in fact in the financial system and walk between the national bank and commercial banks in the form of trading there in securities, certificates of deposit and so on. that problem and for this case, i'm sorry, i'll interrupt , i found a certain solution, yes, this is an increase in taxes for banks, it's a palliative, it's a palliative solution to the introduction of a 50 percent tax on the profits of commercial banks, in fact, it does not solve the main thing, it does not solve the return of this money into economic circulation in the form of lending, and this is the problem that our partners can solve paying attention and saying, what happens when we are forced to give you external aid, and these funds do not work for you, hang around. thanks for helping me figure it out. yaroslav zhalilo, economist, deputy director of the national institute of strategic

studies, joined our broadcast. president volodymyr zelenskyi said that he will not sign a law that would provide for the mandatory mobilization of women. the head of state also noted that he is ready to consider lowering the mobilization age from 27 to 25 years. women, no, i will not sign. as for 25 years, if all the arguments are. laid out, today i see that it is necessary, then i agree with it. actually, we will talk about mobilization further with candidate of legal sciences gennady dubov, he joins our broadcast. mr. gennady, congratulations. i congratulate you. so, what the president said and, in general, the legislative changes that we expect, society expects from the verkhovna rada in the matter of mobilization. on your opinion, whether the probable changes are well articulated by the authorities

to the society, which in fact must then accept these changes and to whom they affect many will influence? well, today, i think that it is not quite enough, well, first of all, we must say that there is no single document that was agreed in the profile committee, we see messages in the networks of individual people's deputies and individual prostovs. theses from the point of view of how society will perceive them, but we currently do not have a clear understanding of what exactly will be changed in the procedure for mobilization, because one way or another it must be formalized in a draft law, and a legislative initiative must be expressed to those who have such a right, it is either a deputy or a group of deputies, or the cabinet, or in this case the president of ukraine. we don't even know who will actually initiate it, that is, there is a certain draft document that is not formalized as a draft law. well, there are discussions about this, apparently in the specialized committee, and currently, in any case, we

have the following, that the reasons for delaying mobilization should be reduced or streamlined, and in addition , additional powers have been granted to the tsc and law enforcement agencies in order to if to fight against those dodgers who violate the law and his constitutional duty, evades military service, that is, such a large framework, and regarding specific... issues, we do not have such a detailed understanding of what is being proposed to us, and actually, as the deputies themselves, of the governing faction claim, hardly will this document even if created as a draft law within this year, at least i had to hear this literally yesterday, that is, wait, this year you mean until the end of 2023, or this year, 12 months from our conversation, no 23 th year... it is meant, well, there is not much left, if it were, yes, but we have been discussing this issue a lot in the last month, and

there is no document as a document, because you can either support or criticize something that has already been drafted, so far only a request has been drafted, the need to do something, and what exactly to do, we still don't know, well, here is the electronic register of conscripts, what changes should the state make, or in general, what mechanism should be legislatively developed in order for it to... work this registry? look, let's go let's say why, what is the problem today? the problem is that, one way or another, all this legislation regarding the mobilization prize, it is very largely soviet, soviet in the context of the fact that at that time there was an institution of registration, the state actually knew about who worked for them at its enterprises, therefore that there were no such private enterprises in principle, the chiefs of the zheiks and district officers knew everyone who lived in the corresponding entrance. house, street, and so on. today, considering that we don't have a residence permit for a long time, that

we have freedom of movement in serfdom, we don't live in collective farms, and so on, as if everyone scattered around the country, someone rents an apartment, someone lives outside the place of registration, and this is a constant story, especially when we are talking , for example, about unofficial employment, that is, under these conditions, these soviet mechanisms , which were trained on a different social model, will fail, they cannot work, and this, including at... leads to the fact that literally , if tsc employees were to look for people who are not on their feet perform their duties regarding at least clarification of data. and all this needs to be organized and it is suggested to do it through certain electronic channels. registers, because today a person interacts a lot with the state precisely through such mechanisms, and if all the databases are synchronized, then conditionally speaking, the state will be able to inform everyone who bears the relevant duty of the need to appear for clarification of data, that is, in a general sense, the idea today it looks like this. let's talk more about the restrictions against russia, the european union

approved the 12th package of sanctions, in particular it contains restrictions on russian diamonds, however, in... the kremlin says that they were ready for this and prepared ways to circumvent the sanctions in advance. piskov says that the sanctions against russia indicate that the resource of areas in which restrictions can be imposed is running out. how can one evaluate the effectiveness of western sanctions in principle , considering how long they have been agreed upon, and they have been increasing for so long that during this time russia is already drawing up a road map for how to adapt to these restrictions? well, i completely agree with by your assessment, because the sanctions are really being harnessed rather slowly, and it must be understood that they are introduced by about six dozen countries, and we have a hole, respectively, in 120 plus countries that do not join the sanctions, professing either a pro-russian position, or at least a position of neutrality , and we see

a similar situation in oil trade, it is significantly limited, but the same price caps, i.e., price restrictions, are in place. prices, they did not really work, and everyone, including western governments and the mass media, recognizes this based on the results of their actions last year information something similar and even on a larger scale will happen, unfortunately, with diamonds, because the market is as arranged: 95% of diamonds are processed, polished in india, 95, even today. we know that, for example, in india, significantly, but during the war, after a full-scale invasion, they are directly exponential. indian exports, respectively diesel fuel and oil products, are increasing, and we all understand that we are talking about russian oil that is supplied to india, and actually today we are not talking about the fact that there is an effective mechanism certification so that already across the border , the corresponding diamond does not enter the market of the same antwerp, which, accordingly, is a hub for

the world trade in diamonds, since in india itself it can turn into an indian one, plus the russian federation. since the 22nd year , in fact, it obliges all traders who work with it to open an apartment headquarters in dubai, united arab emirates, and actually tries to prepare a platform there to carry out trade that brings them about 5 billion today dollars per year, it is the largest export , respectively, after hydrocarbons, so we definitely expected that the actual sanctions policy would tear the russian economy to pieces, but it must be admitted that this has not happened today, and they actually continue to apply and improve the mechanisms for circumventing sanctions, therefore, we demand from our partners more qualitative assistance , precisely so that our enemy is also economically weakened, not only on the battlefield. garast, then how should the civilized world react to your opinion, because it probably will

the 13th package of sanctions, some insiders say that it is already being prepared, so how quickly can it be fueled. after all, all these discussions that are taking place, what will be included in this or that package of sanctions, they also help russia to prepare. well , of course, well, look, this problem is so global in the sense that what does the western world have? it owns the infrastructure, the financial infrastructure, the transportation infrastructure, there are even marketplaces, the corresponding there, networks, other high-tech, and because they don't want to lose consumers of their services, they... essentially give time for other countries to build their alternative infrastructure, well, relatively speaking, like china, it has a parallel internet, it has vchat, it does not use facebook, youtube, and so on, that is, this is the problem of the actual deterrence of third countries by the civilized world, it is actually much wider than the ukrainian-russian war, and the world simply has not developed an answer to this today,

they have actually turned off russia from its infrastructure, and russia turns off from others playgrounds including chinese, indian, brazilian, and continues to trade, this is the problem today, there are no obvious solutions, although in fact , conversations about, for example, the confiscation of russian assets, which in the same belgium are accounted for in euroclear in the hundreds of billions, have intensified again, so in principle, this path, actually, which has recently been updated, it looks the most promising of what can be done now, of course, thank you for... helping to understand on these topics, mr. gennadiy, gennadiy dubov, candidate of legal sciences, joined our broadcast. the citizens of the united states continue to support ukraine in the war with russia, this is evidenced. survey conducted in the country. according to him, the number of americans who have a favorable attitude towards ukraine more than doubles the number who dislike it, 55% to 25. at

the same time, 65% of respondents believe that the united states should support ukraine in the war against russia, although specifically for the current multibillion-dollar funding package only 49% of respondents agree. likewise , two-thirds of respondents support the tactics of the republicans. can ukraine, i.e. provide money only after additional financing of state border security. maksym dzhigun, a political scientist, joins our broadcast. maxim, congratulations. i congratulate you. the mood in the united states, how would you rate it, at the end of this year, given that the discussion about the allocation of funds in ukraine is still ongoing. perhaps they are not discussing amounts and money for ukraine, but the decision, unfortunately, is what we expect. still not, yes as a matter of fact, today ukraine has become a hostage to a situation in which the fate of financing ukraine's military is decided not by

how much money to provide or what they will be used for, what results they will lead to, but because of the fact that the election campaign is winding down in the united states, it is getting tougher, and both parties want to score these electoral points for their opponents, so, unfortunately, we are watching how the issue of support for ukraine becomes one of the issues of internal political bargaining, and when the united states does not allocate a sufficient amount of funds there in time to support ukraine, the ukrainian state, ukrainian society pays for this with the lives of its citizens, as we can see, at the moment there is no confidence that there will be any decisions by the new year, they will no longer be there, therefore that... the deputies went on vacation and there will be no meetings in the near future, but in january they will obviously return to this conversation, there is a feeling that

the americans understand that the issue of military support for ukraine is existential for ukraine, accordingly it automatically becomes extremely important for the united states, since the americans do not have such a huge number of strategic partners abroad, the distribution of geopolitical forces in the world will actually depend on their success on the battlefield, and ukraine is extremely important for the united states, even those radical isolationist representatives of the republican party, who are actually very active in changing their rhetoric. so let's look at the position of the leader of the house of representatives, johnson, who, upon entering his new cabinet, initially said that ukraine somewhere in the backyard with... america should first of all be a priority for congressmen, but in his latest interviews he says that supporting ukraine is a top priority for

the united states, so we are now watching the formation of this consensus and the strengthening of the consensus regarding the support of ukraine. president zelenskyi's latest visit to the united states only strengthened this consensus. now the question of the americans to... come to an agreement about their domestic problems and the border on the border and the wall on the border with mexico, and the question of dealing with illegal migrants, and actually after that there will obviously be a package vote , including for ukraine, but here another nuance is important, that after the start of active hostilities in israel, a huge contingent of knesset deputies came to the united states, which exactly a. .. worked more actively than there, let's say, the ukrainian parliamentarians in terms of their number on the american parliament hill, but the situation regarding their issue is now

at a standstill, so we have to determine that here internal issues prevail, that is, internal the issue of the united states, because we're so actively talking about american politics right now, this is what i'm just looking at in the american media, this is the top topic of the day, this is the colorado supreme court, decided to exclude trump from the ... electoral rolls, the lawyers of the previous president of the united states already they said they would appeal and there really isn't much time and already i can see the clock ticking, headlines like nbc releases what to expect and overall, this is actually one of the high profile decisions that could potentially be, because already now it is necessary to form lists for the priymaries of the republican party, of course, here it is a matter of... in the next decision of a separate supreme court of the state is not binding there for all 50 states, and accordingly, this does not mean that automatically

because of this decision, trump is there loses chances of swamping, the problem here is something else , what is meant for trump, is that they are now appealing to the supreme court of the united states of america, and it will depend on the decision of the supreme court of the state whether they will resort to such steps other states of america, each separately, because it is a very sensitive subject, and despite the fact that the judicial branch is independent, according to the democratic prescriptions of the constitution there. of the united states of america, and these institutions are also politicized in one way or another, because they are appointed by individual political representatives, they have a lot of privileges and there is a sense of a little bit of responsibility for the decisions they make, accordingly , they are guided by what he will say now a court, probably the supreme court of the united states, after that there could be a domino effect, when one by one the states of the united states will decide that trump should not

participate. in their jurisdictions , it's actually a very dangerous precedent, but i have an immediate, you know, antithesis to the processes that are going on now, the fact is that the supreme court of the united states of america is made up of judges who are appointed by the president of the country through the political system, and the fact is that currently the balance, if it can be called that, is in favor of those judges who were represented by the republics. of the republican party appointed by the presidents , so how they will behave, how they will interpret the events that took place in january with the mutiny and the storming of the capitol, no one knows, accordingly , the question remains open, but let's say this, predicting that in the event that trump cannot participate in the election campaign, some equal candidates in terms of recognition, support and love from you.

the republicans have almost no voters, so then the election process turns into such a formal procedure that biden would win for sure, but now the situation is interesting in that it is absolutely unpredictable, and in fact, in these conditions in ukraine, what should we do, we should build relations with two parties at the same time, understanding that the situation is changing, and maybe next year we will have to deal with... another representative , who will sit in the oval office. interestingly, the events unfolding in the pre-election race in the united states, unfortunately, it affects ukraine, but the global world is like that, events in one country affect another. thank you maksym, political scientist maksym dzhigun joined of our broadcast, well, of course, the broadcasting of rada tv channel continues. before we went, we drew lots. and guess what, i

got the devil every time. something, i don't know , i wanted to be an angel for something, and we also went, i was the oldest, i gathered myself, i say, well, who will be the king, they tell me, well, who, who, kolya, well, you, well, mozar, coal, what did you want to be, what did you want to be, a miner, come on, listen, good evening. we are from ukraine, generous, generous, generous, a little weasel flew in, got some more, well, great, and your king is right. oh no,

no need, let's go, let's go, i'm a russian military ship, i suggest laying down weapons and...