usually not enough. france and germany have the same satellite images, but do not believe in the apocalyptic predictions of the americans. you have to remember that the united states, even when they shared intelligence about what was going to happen, they didn't say who their sources were or how they got it. intelligence methods were to remain totally confidential, that is, there was information. get these data: the first is a mole sitting in the kremlin, that is, a person who is there and really works for the americans. of course, very much so probably, but apart from that we can talk about... a major special operation in cyberspace, there is

a possibility that the americans had access to an incredible amount of secret russian documents, so what really mattered was that the americans extracted this data from the kremlin through human resources and through technical , and therefore knew very precisely what the russians were going to do, the us is teetering on the edge of how to be convincing enough. and needless to say , the chief american diplomat anthony blinken abruptly changes his plans, urgently flies to europe, negotiations in kyiv, berlin and geneva. the white house does not want to be alone in confronting russia. they need a coalition with europe. we wanted our european allies to join us in supporting ukraine, in supplying. weapons

and pushback against putin, because as you know, some of them at that time had very close relations with putin, and we wanted to make them wake up. relations between russia and the united states have never been close, but they have not been this bad since the cold war. they spend. a huge amount of resources, time and money to strangle the shalmosky embassy. as soon as the opportunity arises, they follow us everywhere we go, listen to everything i say. i always kept in mind that everything i say is recorded by the fsb. i understood that i had no private phone conversations. when i needed to have a conversation that i wanted to hide from them. i

had to go to a special closed room in the embassy. macron and scholz are certain that they have good relations with putin. the french president talks to him on the phone for hours. putin behaves as usual, denies, blames, avoids clarity. all of them had their own relationship with putin. of course, putin lied to them and said: "oh, no, i'm not...". were going to invade, and lavrov said he wasn't going to invade, and of course they didn't want to believe it, because they didn't want to face the prospect of war on their doorstep. whatever the intelligence analysis is, it is always decided by the political authorities, often these decisions go against the recommendations and data provided by the intelligence service. this is very common, maybe the second case. eventually the decision becomes

political, it contradicts the data, so in general, it is always the responsibility of the political authorities. what brought ukraine down? the united states and great britain , for their part, said one thing, and were deeply convinced of it, while germany and france said: we do not believe, we do not believe that... in the most incredible scenario, how tanks go to kyiv, would you believe the countries , who seem to have the closest communication with russia, and say, no, no, we don't believe in such a scenario. in the end, macron and schulz decide to visit putin in person. but to

come closer than 5 m to him, the kremlin requires both to be tested for covid. scholz is not satisfied with the test brought from berlin. both refuse contact with russian doctors. i think that president macron knew that he was not a carrier of the virus, so there was no reason to get tested. these are not the things that happen in the relations between the two heads of state, not to accept someone without a medical test. you know very well that when you take a test, when it's simple. if you drink a glass of water, you already get microparticles of the skin, enough to make a genetic analysis. but this is a very weak interest. if president macron refused to do this test, it was only because it was simply against the rules

of protocol. how well, you know. both scholz and macron are shown their seats at the five-meter table. their relationship with putin has never been so distant. this is part of putin's pattern of behavior. he tries to humiliate his interlocutors because he does not respect them. look at the dimensions of the table at which they sat with macron. when merkel came to visit him, he knew that she was afraid of dogs, so he let his dog out to scare her. this is part of his tactics, aimed at throwing interlocutors off balance and humiliating them. during the pandemic, putin acquired distinctive paranoid features. even the inner circle goes through long isolation and covid tests before talking to him. this gives rise to rumors that putin

is seriously ill. i will quote my friend bill burns, the director of the cia, who said that the problem with putin's health is that he is... too healthy, do you believe that putin has clones or doppelgangers who appear at public events as human, who loves spy novels god i hope so but i have no reason to say it is it would definitely be a fascinating read would i be stunned if it actually was no do i think it is no i know what is really in putin's head is known to a limited number of people from his closest circle. perhaps the only foreign leader with whom he has to share plans is shizenping. will

the olympics be able to postpone, and possibly stop , putin's attack on ukraine? i remember the olympic games, when putin sat on in the stands next to si. and i thought, well, if they're going to attack, they're going to wait until after the olympics, bossy would say, don't screw up my olympics, and putin would definitely need tacit approval, or at least no resistance from china, to do that, and that time, if it wasn't for the olympic games, i think they would have started earlier, because after all... they waited for a rotten winter, when there was no solid ground. cia director bill burns secretly visits moscow and kyiv twice. the last time was a little more than a month before invasion with putin, he speaks

face-to-face with zelensky via video link. during that visit of bill burns to moscow, he delivered a personal letter to putin from biden, as well as a message. and it was like this: we know what you are doing, we know what you are planning, don't do it, there will be extreme consequences, and then bill beers also visited kyiv and told zelensky that there was a threat to his life, and also directly warned zelensky, that the landing party would try to land directly at gostomel airport, that is, it was quite specific a scenario that we know has come true, as to how the war will develop, what will the offensive be? there was a message about a possible attack by russia as early as next wednesday, and although this is not the first time we have heard such warnings, and in the kremlin, these warnings were called hysteria,

the situation has clearly escalated, several europeans are relying on intelligence data, most airlines are canceling flights to ukraine. being impeccably accurate in some predictions, the americans are fundamentally wrong in others. and one mistake entails new ones, their analysts are sure, the ukrainians will give a fight, but take no more than 72 hours to kyiv. i don't know who came up with three days, but it's just ridiculous. i was in kyiv two weeks before all of this, so the memories are fresh, the size of kyiv, how difficult it is to move there, even... there were no ukrainian troops there, russian troops would not

have been able to surround and capture kyiv in three days, it is mathematically impossible, and assuming that the ukrainian troops will fight, the civilians will fight, i know a little about how it happens in the city, to clear a large building where people are defending, it will take a battalion of hundreds of soldiers. to clear , for example, at least part of the university, and so when i understand, okay, they have a total of 130,00 troops, 3 days, no, it's impossible, mathematically impossible, i don't know who came up with this analytics about three days, who he said that, but obviously, his analytical abilities are even worse than those of the russians. zelensky will be kidnapped or killed,

burns directly warns him about this. of course, i thought it was quite possible. you know, the thought of the invasion of czechoslovakia and what happened to dubchyk there was about the same one. troops of the warsaw pact, which entered czechoslovakia, entered prague, put him on a plane, and sent him to moscow. he was quickly re-educated there, and then sent back to czechoslovakia. he was then sent east, where he became something like a forester. "if i were president zelensky or a close

member of his family, this is probably the best i could hope for. the americans offer zelensky to take him to a safe place, he will answer, i need a weapon, not a let down. on the american side , he was urged to leave kyiv not because... even before the invasion began or immediately after? they repeatedly discussed the evacuation plan with him before and after. partners again offered him to leave the country, to evacuate. the united states wanted to understand... in power, what will happen if he is killed, who will be next, who will be the legitimate

leader, the question of who will take over power was raised, some zuryad residents did move to lviv in case of the worst scenario, who from officials should have been safe, but not everyone could stay in kyiv for security reasons. sometimes he listened angrily to suggestions of escape and was very persistent in his intention to stay. shadows of the recent past, unfortunate miscalculations, drive analysts into a new trap. the united states learned the wrong lessons from afghanistan and libya. we just got out of afghanistan and it was a disaster. the president of ghana left the country and

we simply assumed that ukraine would fall with the russian invasion. we just have to make sure zelensky is safe and we have to get him out of there. absolutely misunderstanding that there is a huge, huge difference between afghanistan and ukraine, no comparison. and i think we were reacting to our own ghosts and our own images. and not on the reality in ukraine, the billions spent on the modernization of the russian army and the rattling of weapons until... allowed to believe that its army was indeed modernized. i definitely overestimated russia's capabilities. i found them to be much better in many ways. and so, for months i tried to understand why i was so wrong. and

now i realize that i failed to appreciate the depth corruption and how much this corruption will affect everything. from the quality of equipment to the quality of training and the actual number of troops. and of course, she spent billions of rubles on modernization. it started, i think, in 2007, and so of course i focused on modernization. how about all these new planes and new equipment. but at the end of the day, people and processes are more important than techno itself. the usa and its partners are sending tons of light defense weapons to ukraine, all requests from kyiv are being rejected out of hand, you just won't have time to use them. the united states said, start digging trenches on the border with belarus, i remember

andriy yarmak told me: how will trenches on the border with belarus help against missiles? flying from belarus, and this is an honest argument , they tell you, you will be under fire from the sky, everything will be so terrible, blah blah blah, but they do not give you weapons that would meet the task of defending yourself, there was also a certain misunderstanding here. putin successfully manages to fool almost everyone, he has... a kgb agent and the head of the fsb. for the west, he is harsh and cynical, but still a smart player. putin can't be that irrational. putin cannot fail. the russian federation is a criminal organization like the sopranos, only with nuclear weapons. and the fact that putin was a

kgb agent does not mean that he was. a good kgb agent does not mean that he was exceptionally intelligent. in fact, if you look at his career path, where he's been, he hasn't made it to the top. he was sent to a place where very mediocre or below average kgb agents end up. so i think we all think too highly of his intelligence. in each article referred to the former. kgb, oh my god, he really knows something. and by the way, i'm not saying he's stupid, this guy isn't, but he was written about as if he could play chess and walk at the same time. at the same time, standing on the head. obviously, this is not the case. the same at home.

are subordinates afraid of putin? i support or support. the people who informed putin painted rosy pictures for him that had nothing to do with reality. my colleague wrote about a survey conducted for the fsb in ukraine. the fsb agent claimed that most people will welcome russian tu. they literally expected a parade, flowers, that everything would be very simple, that there would be no such opposition. ukrainian soldiers with whom i spoke about this say that the russians were sometimes

simply stunned by the fact that they met resistance at all. so i think they expected the crimean scenario, where everything was so vague, the troops just went in without a fight , here they got something completely different, they got resistance, they didn't notice that ukraine has changed a lot and doesn't want anything to do with russia. on february 18, president biden states, according to their data, putin made the decision. the countdown has ended. on the 20th, president macron calls putin and tries to persuade him to another round of negotiations. putin ends the conversation with a phrase. frankly, i was going to play hockey, i'm talking to you from the gym before practice.

a little more than three days remain before the great war. we had an array of intelligence, several rounds of negotiations, unity in europe. could we somehow avoid war without surrendering to russia? no, i don't think so, vladimir putin made a decision, such a number of forces were involved. all of them these arguments about non-membership in nato, promise this, promise that. i think the united states tried to follow the path of diplomacy, as did other countries, including ukraine. but russia was closed to this. efforts did not yield results. on the other hand, i think it was important to go through these efforts, it is important to try, it is important for the public to see that we are trying, it is important to show that putin is an aggressor. i

think it had a big effect because it prevented a lot of russian actions, like the foreign flag operations that they were going to do. on today there is zero trust in them, lest they suddenly say, now... no one will believe them. i mean, nobody can be trusted in the kremlin anymore. intelligence did not prevent war. everything was programmed in the dictator's head. he has been carrying out his last push since 2008, when he first dismembered georgia, then annexed crimea, burned donbas, and now he has moved on. but the crimean scenario did not work out, the world simply did not have time for the stage of shock and denial, because everything was known in advance, and

now putin knows for sure that if he is paranoid, this does not mean that he should not be followed. we are starting the all-national telethon broadcast on channel 1+1, it is friday, and as usual on friday evenings we have a big table and a big conversation, and of course today we will also talk about what happened in the morning and and about the goals of the russians, about what... they wanted to show with this, and what they actually achieved, and let's bring it to the point, after all, with what result ukraine and russia end

the confrontation in the 23rd year, we will be somewhat simulate the situation of the 24th year and set the main tasks to which we should strive and still get there, and i want to understand at what stage our partners are now on this side of the atlantic, on the other side of the atlantic, whether they understood what happened, whether they understood what happened, how about it. therefore, i am pleased to introduce our guests oleksandr khara , diplomat, expert of the center for defense strategies, good evening, good evening, volodymyr fosenko, political expert, welcome, and andriy dligach, doctor of economic sciences, professor of shevchenko knu, general director of advanted group, good evening , thank you for coming, what let's start with today's events, well, i started with the fact that the russians made such a tragic chord this year, let's hope that it is the last, but you can expect anything from them .

at the end, but i think, you know , it's tragic for us, unfortunately, people died and dozens were wounded, but it's also a reminder, the war is far from over, and we have to keep you ... , to continue this war, so this is a stark, tragic reminder that the war continues and we cannot lose concentration in order to fight for the future of my country, if i may literally two points: firstly, i was surprised that there was no attack on christmas, because it is the wrong christmas, everyone should celebrate with the third rome, it is very strange, and secondly moment, this is also an important thing, if we look from the 14th year, how, what were the waves of aid to ukraine? you remember that there were completely decorative sanctions on crimea after the annexation, and only after the downing of the malaysian boeing did the europeans

come to their senses. same as after the guns are gone, which means the deliveries to us, and i watched literally before the broadcast, there was an address by the president of the united states, where he calls on congress not to block, because actually, including the american, american air defense systems help save ukrainian lives, and he says that that it's not only about ukraine, it's about europe and transatlantic security, that is, these crofis and destruction in ukraine, it gives an excuse to the media, what a shame, that's right... our world in order to restore attention to ukraine after that horror , which is happening in israel, yes, there or in some other places, so it is a negative, but there is a positive, the russians knew that it would be like this, it is true that there would be such a reaction, of course, they know, but they shake the situation, secondly, if we talk about aid to the united states, which will definitely come, i am sure that by the first decade of january, for sure, it will be decided, negotiations are going on between democrats and

republicans. of course, everyone doesn't want to speak, because you understand that next year is an election, it's the entire house of representatives, a third of the senate and the president of the united states, and if biden makes enough concessions on immigration reform, it will mean that a part of the extreme wing of the democrats will be dissatisfied, and one is already not satisfied with his careless support for israel, that is, these things overlap and may very well hit the electoral chances of biden himself, therefore it is difficult in this. the complexity is internal political , but in general, you know, we say that there are those who block aid, there are 50-70 people in the house of representatives, in the senate it is literally two or three senators who are like that hardcore against us, all the rest , that is, the republicans, they believe that we should be helped and should be helped more, now i won’t say the exact numbers, public opinion polls, pure research institute,

the center, i’m sorry, there are two or three... too many we give aid, i.e. should it be stopped or reduced, one part is that more should be given, and one is satisfied, says that at that level, that is, about 60%, 2/3, they are in favor of continuing the aid, even fox news , yes, according to their survey , the situation was the same, even a little in december support for ukraine has increased, i think, precisely thanks to our diplomatic activity to a certain extent, well yes, i just... i immediately remembered today’s post about trump , did you see any aggressive greetings to biden to the prosecutor with wishes , just who didn’t see it with the desire to burn in hell together with our ukraine and russia , unfortunately, what i am afraid of next year is not the victory of trump, as there are many now, but

rather the crisis. here is a tough aggressive collision in the states, this is very dangerous, and the campaign, judging by everything, will be very, very , it is already very conflicting, well, by the way , i haven't watched fox and cnn for the last week, whether there have been any narratives about the fact that the country is being slandered, as we had, do you remember when you went to the stadium and there were voices, calm down there, because the country is at stake, why do such a thing? not really, i looked, do you remember such and such a person, michael flynn, who was the first national security adviser, from the fact that he has his own cult there, because there is a cult of trump, and of course, there are still small cults there, so he basically scares the fact that the guns will speak for him if they steal the elections again, that is, they are still in spite of the fact that there was no positive decision in favor of trump, which in the 20th year was somehow tampered with

democrats there are no such voices, but they sincerely believe, that is, it is like a cult, and now they are already preparing their own, let's say, a cell there, i don't know, their constitution, in order to be ready, it is extremely dangerous, and by the way, literally there a month ago, so elon musk showed that he was there shoots, well, a rather big gun like that, or there is from the hip and so on, that is, this is nonsense, but the most important thing is that in fact it gives an impetus to the fact that, well... in fact, the others are the extreme right, they said, it's normal, well then he does not give them a platform, and it is certainly dangerous, i absolutely agree with my colleague here that trump, as a danger to us and to america and to the principle of democracy in general, and the second point, this is a civil confrontation that is already ready there, i hope, of course, that they will escape, that they will have enough of these restraints pertiwags laid down, but we cannot predict what will happen, we understand

that it is not by itself so in... it turns out that the americans are much slower.