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in these pre-new year's days, the saturday political club of khrystyna yatskiv and vitaly portnikov is on the air with the results of 2023 and the prospects for 2024. our program today, we will talk about the results of the 23rd and about the expectations for 2024, of course we will start with the most important for us, the military situation, it is probably worth starting, you know, with such a joke somewhere, i do not know who the author is this joke but for the first time i saw him, among the residents of kazakhstan, who welcomed the russians at the beginning of the 23rd year with the advancing ukrainians, and we must... understand that indeed the 23rd year was marked by certain expectations in the military sense, and in our society and our western partners, our military-political leadership, it was more of an insult than a plan, i would like to believe. in any case, now we are where

we are, and several extremely important points, purely in the military picture of this year , also have and deserve attention. sir vitaly, what? in your opinion, the main counteroffensive, which may have ended not quite what the majority expected, was the understanding that we were in a long struggle, the sobering up of ukrainians in particular, too, or i don’t know, to a greater extent open questions, well, it seems to me that 2023, christina , was a year of realism, ugh, and that's the most important thing, by and large, all these trends that we're talking about... that became evident in 2023 were already clear in 2022, nothing new from the point of view of our analysis really not happened, simply in 2022 no one wanted to talk or think about it, the famous article by generals zaluzhny and zabrodsky, which

demonstrated in principle what this war would look like, it spoke about the war at length, about a long-term process and had absolutely no need for it. .. keep in mind that a single offensive, even a successful one, can end this war. i want to remind you what western politicians said also in 2022, so as not to take all these comments of ours in 2023, they said that they were supplying weapons to ukraine, that they help ukraine, so that ukraine can release as many as possible. their lands and in this strong position to negotiate with the russian federation. at that time , it was not about the fact that ukraine can liberate everything. there were also discussions about whether

crimea should be liberated at all. the ukrainian political leadership has always said that the liberation of crimea is our priority. in the west, many... said that any threat to crimea could cause an escalation of the conflict, hinting at a nuclear strike, and said that it was enough for crimea to remain under attack by the ukrainian armed forces, or was under such a serious attack that it would force the president of the russian federation , vladimir putin, to agree to negotiations, so in any case in western political and military circles. there was this topic all the time, and it was spoken by president biden, and general milli, and european leaders, they saw, as the result of 2023, precisely the negotiations between ukraine and russia, so when we use the word victory, i would say

that it is in general it is very careless to use the word victory in application to any reality, and then when you start for... and what is victory for you , it turns out that you drive yourself into some kind of dead end, because many of our compatriots, if you asked him, what at 22 -th year will mean victory for him, he would answer that it is the return of ukraine to the territorial borders of the ukrainian ssr, let's say, to the borders of 1991, but again, the name. the west did not see such a victory, for the west the victory was that the ukrainian army would somehow be able to really advance position of russia and force russia to hold negotiations on the end of the war, which would open up some new opportunities for ukraine

that no one knew about, peaceful existence, european euro-atlantic integration, stopping the loss of lives, etc., etc., now it seems to me that realism consists of... . from the fact that we begin to understand that no military successes of ukraine, whatever they may be, do not lead to any negotiation process, that the president of the russian federation , vladimir putin, who firstly relies on ... the enormous support of his own countrymen precisely when he is waging this war. 75% of russians want to see him as the president of russia, they are absolutely sure of the correctness of his course, these are triumphant results for a politician who has been in the position of president for the 204th year. that is, for him there are no negotiations, for him war exists as a necessity, and even more so when we talk about this pre-election period, the pre-election period in the russian federation itself, when it is necessary to appear strong, confident, when the number of killed ukrainians, it is only increases your rating, and

presidential election campaign in 2024 in the united states, which also reflects the intentions of the russian leadership to extend this war at least until the results of this american election to see who will still win it, and so i did not understand anything about it in 2022, when you see the real thing. it is obvious that a military decision does not lead to a political one, to put it simply, and everyone around does not want to notice this, because they comfort themselves with some completely unrealized expectations and desires, and now we still still, i believe that we are in a more or less realistic world, because first of all, we realize that whatever the actions of the ukrainian armed forces, at the end of the year there was a message that a new offensive in 2024 is possible , they... will not lead until the end of the war, the ukrainians should

stop hoping for an end to the war through negotiations, because russia does not want to negotiate with them, and moreover , it is absolutely unclear why russia should negotiate with ukraine, if the ukrainian armed forces are gaining, uh, some success, are cut off from the corridor, russia used to live somehow without a corridor, across the land to the crimea, russia lived. without crimea until 2014 and nothing happened to it, russia certainly lived without the devastated lands of donbas and southern ukraine. and if we realize with you that nothing will happen on the territory of the russian federation itself, the russian federation has the opportunity to experiment with ukrainian lands and with us, as much as it needs in order to finally destabilize the situation, if we hope for negotiations . why am i talking about this? i say because we can discuss the ukrainian issue with you. in the categories of defeat or victory of our favorite categories, and although

in fact the front actually froze in november 2022, not the 23rd, since november 2022 we have a completely static situation on the front from the point of view of strategy, so individual settlements pass from hand to hand, what are our enemies trying to achieve, what are we trying to achieve? there are even achievements, like this story with efforts to gain a foothold on the opposite bank of the dnieper opposite kherson, this is all a fact, just like the russian actions in avdiivka and maryanka, this is also a fact, but still the territory as such is completely preserved in a static form, and the only difference was that the russians built defense structures there on this territory, which they control, we started to build , but the question arises, why should we ... think that if the results of the offensive were what we wanted to see in the west, and we

understand what the results are, the exit to melitopol and the cutting of the corridor, this would mean some end of war and desire russians to end it, i never understood this, and it is not clear now, and by and large i am still in a situation where i believe that there is no political solution to this war, that it is necessary to just come to terms with it and think about... how to end this war without russia. the russians will also look for the possibility of some options, but those that they will be completely satisfied with. when they come to the conclusion that they can stop without negotiation. we will figure it out. ugh. here, by the way, is a good example, this year. grain deal. she acted with for with the participation of russia, we transported grain. ugh. at some beautiful moment. russia came out of this model, quite an interesting model, because russia and ukraine did not agree with each other, they did not

negotiate with each other, there was a model in which the secretary-general of the united nations , antonio gutierrez, and the president of the republic of turkey, recep tayyip erdogan, acted as mediators and the agreement was signed with the turkish side of the un, respectively , the russian side, the ukrainian side, so it worked until the moment when russia, which in principle in i have this impression, i wanted to get out of this agreement the same day when he... they decided that she was getting out. as a result , it turned out that we can transport grain in a limited manner and without russian permission, which is a bully. one way or another it works, even if not on such a scale, we will see what will happen in the spring and summer, but it turns out that russian consent is not needed for this, it is the same here, is it possible to end the war without russia? i believe that it is possible, for that a whole complex of political and military-technical actions is needed, and not only from the side of ukraine, of course not

only from the side of ukraine, ukraine is not an obvious subject of this process at all, it is an object of this process, because ukraine is itself. without the help of the west, i think here, we understand this perfectly well, we would not have lasted several months against the russian onslaught, we simply did not have equipment, military and equipment, we simply do not have money, because our economy is destroyed, and the west must realize that if he perceives this struggle between ukraine and russia as part of the global confrontation between democracy and dictatorships, about which i once spoke on intsipelos, either he agrees with the fact that... the russian federation is increasing one way or another at the expense of ukrainian regions, well, there is no such gray way out here, you see that we have tried to stay in this gray zone for many decades, and most of our compatriots with you were completely satisfied with this gray zone. in general, i think that this is the kind of example of suicidal national

idiocy that can enter all the textbooks of political history, because ... which by and large , as you understand, everyone has always been it is clear that the security situation is the main situation for any country, and many countries that were part of the soviet zone of influence or the soviet union itself realized the fact that it is necessary to look for some guarantees for security, this was clear back in the 90s those years, in the 1990s, when poland, the czech republic, hungary, and later slovakia joined nato, these countries did not have any major problems with russia. i remember the madrid nato summit, i was there when the decision was made on the first enlargement of nato. if you think someone has had these there are serious anti-russian tendencies, you

are wrong, all this was not there. in russia itself, if i am not mistaken, then there were no bright anti-national sentiments, at least public of course, of course, well, she was against expansion, well, yes, against expansion, this was the clear position of president boris yeltsin, i well remember that vice - the prime minister of the government of the russian federation, mr. sirov, who came at the head of the russian delegation to the nato summit at the time, he gathered journalists to talk to them at a telephone booth in press center of the forum, because... didn't want to go even into the meeting hall and didn't want to hold any official events as a sign of protest against the expansion of the alliance, but it was all very calm, then russia signed these founding acts with nato, uh, which created the russia-nato council, and i repeat again in poland itself, in the czech republic, in hungary

there was no reason to think about... such security from our point of view, there were more reasons, let's say, in slovenia, which wanted to join nato in the first place, which they didn't take then, because they were worried about the general situation in the former yugoslavia, but the peoples of these countries simply remembered what russia is, knew, and that's why this expansion happened, those who managed, they got into nato, got their.. security system , let's look at another, different situation, but i'm sorry, but we also knew what russia is, why the same experience, they have even more short-term than ours, but the effect is so different, we don't know anything knew what russia was, the ukrainians of 1994 three years before of this founding act, russia nato, to the ukraine nato charter signed in madrid

by leonid kuchma, they voted for kuchma, it was his first term, kuchva came to power with the slogans of restoring relations. from the russian federation, one of the most important moments of his first term as president there was the state visit to kyiv by boris yeltsin, who signed this famous big agreement, which did not guarantee us anything, and who set as a condition for his move and for signing this big agreement, as you know, from creation agreement regarding the presence of the black sea fleet in crimea, so nobody knew anything, most of our compatriots with you adhered to absolutely obvious pro-russian views. which did not go anywhere until 2014, and many believed even in 2019 that it was possible to negotiate with russia, and the majority of our population opposed nato, i will tell you more. who do you think ukrainians supported in the conflict between serbia and croatia? serbia, of course, serbia, of course, who did the ukrainians support in the conflict between

moldova and transnistria? transnistria, we even supported politically. for whom did our ukrainian radicals vote, they did not vote, but fought in transnistria and the caucasus and that, well, they already fought in the caucasus, it seems to me for georgia, but in transnistria they fought for... ukraine, for for transnistria i am from ukraine, people, and we had this multi-vector foreign policy, the changes began in relation to kuchma, when the nato appeared in our national security strategy, which, as it appeared, was then removed from there, so what can we say that we understood, no, i'm sorry, we inherited it a country of pro-russian citizens, and there is no need to... somehow hushed up, when latvia, lithuania, estonia and the western lands of ukraine did not vote, or voted against gorbachev's referendum on a sovereign

union, the vast majority of ukrainians supported this idea, in the summer of 1991 ukraine was the main union republic on which moscow relied in the effort to create this new union. actually, when i asked this question, i meant that anyway , the majority of ukrainians, in one way or another, have been victims of russia for at least the 20th century and of the soviet union. another point is very important that i wanted to tell you about the opposite side, this is also an interesting point, there is an opposite side, belarus, relatively speaking, well, kazakhstan nazarbaeva, well , how can i say all this then, who were ready to enter the odek. this is also to a certain extent the sphere of security, so you ask if i do not consider myself a victim of russia, but lukashenko definitely does not, and nazarbayev did not consider himself a victim of russia, they considered russia there

to be a state with which one should have friendly relations, but they were ready to enter together with it the russian sphere of security, i am not even talking about the peoples, but about the elites, that is, the belarusian elite , the lukashenko elite and the kazakh elite, they believed that they should apply for this guarantee of security for themselves. to moscow , by the way, it worked, as you know, in 2020 for lukashenka, ugh, and in 2022 for the kazakh elite, where tokaev already fought with nazarbayev, but it’s still, you know, the same eggs only in profile , this is one and the same elite, so it turned out that russia is even ready to send troops there, when it comes to kazakhstan, only to save this elite from some rules, but this, if you like, is also nuclear. where it is already possible to somehow

appeal to china, what the countries of central asia are doing very actively, ugh, this is also a strength, and where we turned out, we simply adored our multi-vector foreign policy, this , if you ask, but we are nowhere, therefore nowhere, i i said then, i said in the 1990s that... this general-vector, multi-vector foreign policy means that we are nowhere in sight, i'm sorry, so that, and this is the result, and now, when we again it is said, maybe the condition of our survival and agreement with russia will be our neutral status, then this is what russia has always sought from us, to be nowhere, because if we are nowhere early or... we will become nothing, it's simple a simple relationship , but unfortunately, i always remind you that this was accepted by society, ukrainian society, for a long time, and i do not know how

the situation would have changed if it were not for 2014, if it were not for the annexation of crimea, if it were not for the tragedy , which took place in donbas, as far as our you compatriots were ready to realize the real danger, i want to remind you that when viktor yushchenko was still president, and when such a real conversation about the holodomor began, many did not perceive it as an accusation against russia, practically the entire faction of the party of regions , she voted against this decision. now, when we talk about the legacy, the political legacy of yushchenko, we understand that this is perhaps one of the most important moments in the political history of ukraine, that we were able to realistically look at our own history of the 20th century. that at that time it was not significant for many, for me it was a huge mystery, why is it so, you understand , christina, because i knew about all these stories from childhood and generally believed that this was one of the ...

major moments in history of the ukrainian nation, the one that always needs to be talked about when we think about what happened in these lands in general, but no, but no, it was necessary for a whole president to start a whole campaign to return the policy of national memory in general, to some unconscious beginnings, we are still building, like you you know, until now, let's talk about what is probably bothering ukraine at the end of 2020, almost the most, and it is still the fact that we are hostage to the political realities of our extremely important partners, for example, the united states. in general, the history of our relations with the united states during 2023 was full of many events, including joseph biden's visit to ukraine in february 23, despite, as we understand, a rather heated military situation. this is the visit of

the ukrainian president. not even one to of the united states, a speech in congress, and communication with a representative, representatives of both parties in the united states, and definitely communication with the american president himself. we understand that the turbulence in the states is unlikely to be related in any way to us, but at the same time, we find ourselves in a situation where we depend on it, and will come out on someone unconscious. the compromise of democracy with republicans, unfortunately, our existence for the whole next year depends on this, it is no exaggeration. mr. vitaly, can we say that in the united states as well a certain awakening is taking place in the states, and now, in fact, the administration of joseph biden, realizing the political realities they have encountered, is forced to look for some alternative ways, financing us. at the end of the year, i will just remind you, the united

states began to persuade the countries of the groups. seven, that there is an absolutely normal legal mechanism for the transfer of confiscated russian assets, or frozen russian assets for the benefit of ukraine, well, that is, there are some such, you know, inventive thoughts in this direction, but all this comes out of the crisis, well, you are absolutely right, dear, if we look at the year 2023 from the point of view of the logic of ukrainian-american relations, then here we will see the transition from triumph to disappointment, this visit of the president of the united states in february, which seemed completely incredible . historical event, it was the first time in history the visit of an american president to a zone of such obvious danger, when the president of the united states has to travel by train in such a, i would say, classified situation, from the polish border to kyiv, and you can to imagine how difficult this decision was at all adopted in the white house, and before the visit of volodymyr zelenskyi to washington in

december. which was also unexpected, but still everyone thought that, after all, it is a huge event when the president of ukraine arrives in washington, because we all knew that previously all proposals from the ukrainian side to organize a meeting between the presidents of the united states and ukraine were met with explanations from the united states that there is no point in such meetings now, and the president was planning, as we know, to come to forum about strategies, but did not come , representatives of the ukrainian leadership came without zelenskyi, and this is quite an important moment, about which i want to say that after all, that visit was the last, it was also a visit of disappointment to a certain extent, because everyone talked with zelenskyi and in the senate and the house of representatives, and the representatives of the republican political establishment said, yes, we will support you, but it's not about you at all, but on the other hand, this is

true, but maybe because we don't know. it may be that the republican elite uses history with the border to keep us from giving money. we will see this next year, but another important thing is that the very fact that no one in the united states, with the possible exception of donald trump, wants to say out loud that he does not want to give aid to ukraine is a positive rather than a negative signal . after all, we also knew that 2024 would be difficult from the point of view of aid. on the 22nd, everyone said that most of what we can do must be done in 2020, the third year, because 2024 year is a campaign year in the united states, and a campaign year is never easy. and here there is another very important moment, about which i want to say that this year 2024 has started.