for 2024, and in general we will try somehow ungratefully, as always, to predict what we should do and how we should live? let's observe a moment of silence in memory of the ukrainian military and civilian citizens of ukraine who died in the war started by russia.

we continue the saturday political club on the espressa tv channel khrystyna yatskiv, vitaly portnikov , we continue to talk about the trends of 2023 and plans for the 24th, october 2020. the year was marked by a new war in the middle east, i think that we should stop a little on this, since it is parallel war with what is happening on our territory, and this is a certain burden on the united states, as a country on which a lot depends, both in that and in another case. i have often asked you, mr. vitaly, in our programs, whether it is possible to deploy such, you know, a textbook third world war. how

we imagine it there with nuclear winters, explosions and so on, and you recently pointed out aptly that it is unlikely rather it will be a combination of such smaller conflicts, meat grinders and our task not to be one of them, to do everything to stop being one of them, if we talk about the middle east and again about the global trends that are emerging, south america, maybe i don't know if we can say that we are already halfway there, you know how you are. to the conflict of the world, i think we are already there, you know, i have stood there so many times on the balcony, from which i opened, the exit to the old jerusalem, and i always thought there, when i looked at all this, how is it even possible that i someday i will see this landscape already in a peaceful settlement conflict, in a peaceful city, in which it will be absolutely obvious that the yore and the arabs can live side by side and... not perceive each other as

enemies, as a danger, and this has been happening for decades, until the moment that now i can watch exclusively on television plasma, and i've always thought that the middle east conflict is just a textbook of how various powers can use dangerous trends to achieve their own results, uh, and ... you said a parallel war , and for me it seems that this is not a completely accurate description, it is not a parallel war, it is a continuation of this war. i think i told you that in 2022, i think in march, i wrote a text to the israeli media in which i predicted this conflict, and precisely because i assumed that it would be a continuation of the ukrainian conflict, and i did not agree with those colleagues of mine in israel, expert. with politicians who said it was

another war, and now in israel, by the way, they don't think it's a parallel war, that's why israeli prime minister benjamin netanyahu is there can afford a harsh tone in his conversations with vladimir putin, because everyone understands that this is the same conflict situation, and by and large, when iranian drones appeared in the sky over ukraine, i also asked ... what is this coincidence, you think that they just supply russia with weapons, no, they still use all this as a training ground, they generally look at how the ukrainian army operates, and how the russian army operates under the proposed conditions, because by and large these are armies of various mobilization and military-technical potential, how can any army in the military-technical sense be much weaker than the attacker. to stop his

actions, i think the iranians still really wanted to see, they just didn't have to, fortunately, how the street fights would go, ugh, they needed a war with... and kiev and also drones during such a war, just , i'm sorry, couldn't mariupol demonstrate this to them, to a certain extent mariupol and azovstal could also demonstrate this, because they wanted to see how the hamasites could act in such a situation the situation of serious urban development, and how they can hold these or other positions for a long time, what can the israelis do in the situation of the hamas holding such positions, all this was absolutely for them, they needed their military equipment to be present in one way or another, so that they too understood its capabilities, i said that this is not an accident, and indeed, by and large, the war in the middle east is also an illustration of the wrong understanding of danger, because many

people said before this war the same thing that they said to the ukrainian authorities before. .. putin, that the most dangerous thing you can do for a potential aggressor is to create an illusion of weakness, because then you may win, but you will not be able to make up for all that you lost. here, the prime minister of israel , benjamin netanyahu, was told: the question is not judicial reform, the question is that you are dividing israeli society, mr. prime minister, what are you establishing in order to... stay in power coalitions with the most marginal political forces on the right wing, which in turn also divides the israelis, which you already hear as reservists they say that they will not all go to the army

of defense, these are slogans, but if these slogans are heard by our enemy, he may think, and it may be time to attack, if the jewish state is as weak as it has ever been in its history, then we will at least be able to... deal it such a blow that we could never deal in other situations, and this is also the weakness of institutions, because when institutions begin to be managed by ignoramuses, when a conflict is created artificially between ignoramuses and professionals, as it was with ultra-right ministers in netanyahu's cabinet, that's it really gives the enemy the illusion that they will destroy you quickly, at least give you a type of blow that in another situation... could never have been delivered, and that we didn't have this situation before 2022? we had exactly the same situation, we explained why, let's say, it is dangerous to hold a meeting in the normandy format in paris, because it will create in vladimir putin a completely

unrealistic expectation of the capitulation of ukraine , and it is not known how he will react to... the unpreparedness of our new power to such capitulation, why is it at all dangerous to carry out this whole process of seeking a dialogue with the dpr and lpr, because russia will create the illusion that it is luring us into traps, and if we do not fall into these traps, this in turn will create the idea of ​​the need for a forceful solution of the conflict, because these are weak people, they are trying... somehow to come to an agreement with us, but they cannot, we will push them. this very situation of institutionalism, when people who had nothing to do with them were appointed to leading positions in critically important structures, already created the impression among the russians that they

would be able to easily take the situation under control. and when we know this famous phrase that if we... we couldn't build roads in the right amount, well, i didn't say it, and this phrase, one way or another, it illustrates not only the attitude of the ukrainian authorities to the situation, it illustrates the russian attitude as well, they are building roads there, not strengthening the army, we need to quickly resolve this issue, because if the government there changes and those who will strengthen the army come, and not to build roads, this is electoral. they have already seen how the rating of the current president decreases before the war, so it will be more difficult for us to seize them, so we need this moment now, they generally perceived the election of volodymyr zelenskyi and the first years of his rule as a moment of absolute weakness and imbalance of the ukrainian state, and

such in israel, although there was a very experienced politician who ruled there all his life, and in ukraine, although here and there new faces came to power, in... the enemy was there, the illusion of the weakness of the state was created, and he, having decided on his plans, comes out of this illusion and... yes, this means that we can both in israel and in ukraine get out of this situation, but at what cost? the price is really unaffordable for both countries. israel is forced to fight for dozens of days. ugh. this is absolutely not characteristic of conflicts in the middle east. as a rule, the hot phase of the war in the middle eastern conflicts ends literally in a few days, well, in a few weeks. ugh. it brings irreparable losses for the economy, it is unknown. when the israeli economy will recover pre-war level, and

they don't count how many people they lost, the same for ukraine, we can stop the influx, but we already live in a world where the economy is in a destroyed state, we have a few industries left, and that's all, well, that's all pay , the price for our misunderstanding, for our and israel 's misunderstanding of security, that's why i think that this is the continuation of wars, that... dictatorships, they are sensitive to such things, you see, this is a dictator, in general, an authoritarian ruler, he has logic a predator, he, if he smells of blood, he goes there, you see, because if blood is already pouring, it will be easier to finish it off, this is a very simple logic, and it is the same for yakhisinvar, it is the same for vladimir putin, they just smell it, they like the taste of blood, eh, is it possible to create a situation... in which there will be so much blood that even putin will suffocate, or is it

, let's say, just my, some such visions that i have in mind, returning to the topic of conflicts around the world, is it possible or it is possible to achieve a situation where the straw on the camel becomes like this much that the last straw would break his back, it is desirable that it was again a camel in form. china or russia, not the west. well, for that the measure has to act like authoritarian regimes. yes, and for this we have to return to the logic of the cold war. but even during the cold war, the west did not want to directly interfere in any, say, areas of responsibility of moscow or beijing. but there was no event in vietnam. i was in vietnam, i was in vietnam when vietnam occupied cambodia. the event did not participate. in the vietnam-china war, and when the west tried to take part, here is the war in vietnam,

let's say this is the real involvement of the west, it led to stunning results, to the actual defeat of the united states, it must be clearly stated that the united states was defeated in the vietnam war, because the republic of south b vietnam, which was non-communist, was destroyed by the communists, and this is the question of whether the west can act like russia or even. china, because the price of human life is different, the americans kept asking why we are fighting in vietnam, what we are doing there, by and large was a problem, it weakened the communist camp, but it also weakened america , the obvious conclusions are drawn from this, afghanistan, where the american troops were, too, because how, how can we interfere with vladimir putin here, it means that we should think about some conflicts. which weaken the russian regime itself, create conflict

situations for it, well, relatively speaking, these should be conflicts on the territory of russia itself, to be precise to the end, but the west will not do such a thing, because it is outside of political ethics of the event, it will be a congressional hearing, the question is, why did you get in there, how did you give the money, can i ask, please, the bombing? nato forces of yugoslavia? the nato bombing of yugoslavia could have taken place in a situation, i would say, when its relations between the west and russia and china were different than they are now, and when everyone knew for sure that russia would act exclusively by political methods. ugh. and when the russian leadership tried to convince slobodan milosevic to come to some kind of agreement with... the party, as you know, viktor chornomyrdin met with slobodan milosevic before

this nato operation, and how yevhen primakov met with saddam hussein, that is, but they did not use political methods, but i want to remind you, if you have already mentioned the bombing of yugoslavia by nato forces, about what happened in the first day of this operations about a symbolic event, about the downing of the plane of the prime minister of the russian federation, yevgeny primakov, who was flying to the united states. for negotiations with the vice president of the united states, albert gore. pryamakov, when learned that a decision had been made to bomb yugoslavia, he ordered the crew to change course and take a course not for washington, but for moscow. and from this moment the countdown begins. in the new

russian foreign policy. anti-western. frankly anti. western and this was even before the moment when vladimir putin appeared on the political scene of russia. at the moment when yevhen primakov turned his plane around. putin was one of the high-ranking russian officials, but definitely not the person who should lead the country. before him, there was still a premiership sergei stepashin and eventually putin himself. little in terms of time, many in terms of events. and by and large you can clearly say. that when nato decided that it could act in such a way as to stop the genocide, to stop it, to prove to authoritarian regimes that it would talk to them in more than just political ways, russia took that opportunity to say that it would too now act not only by a political

method. i have always reminded that moscow will mirror any actions of the civilized world. even if these actions are justified. it is no coincidence that vladimir putin constantly cites the example of kosovo. on the one hand, we perfectly understand that kosovo is the territory where the genocide took place, in fact. that slobotan milosevic decided to expel all albanians from the territory of their many years of residence. someone lived more, someone lived less, but we are talking about that century. and this was the main idea of ​​serbian chauvinism, to expel albanians from kosovo, because kosovo is serbia and there is no, there is nothing for albanians to do there, but further recognition of independence kosovo on the part of the united states and other countries of the world created a precedent for russia, which putin decided to use when

he recognized the independence of abkhazia and south ossetia in 2008. and said that what makes abkhazia worse than kosovo? georgia also wanted to commit genocide there in south ossetia, abkhazia bombarded tskhenval with rockets, that georgians never in their lives expelled abkhazians from georgia, south ossetia, from abkhazia, south ossetia, it was the authorities of these regions who expelled ethnic georgians and put them in a situation where they decade, turned into refugees, but none the less, none the less, it was a precedent, and then... well, i liked it in general, you see, i liked the idea itself, because he not only annexed crimea, but also other regions of ukraine, he held referendums there, under the guise of expression of will, yes, referendums, and declared them independent states, crimea declared itself an independent state, and then

held a referendum, the donetsk and luhansk people's regions, the so-called republics, declared themselves independent. states, and then held a referendum as independent states about accession to russia, i.e. all the time he and the zaporizhia and kherson regions, they did not even change the names, it was such a comedy, an independent state, the zaporizhia region enters russia, well, well, what am i talking about, he uses it all the time a mechanism, a mechanism, because even the legislation of the russian federation prohibits annexing the regions of other countries, until now, it is still not possible to annex a region of ukraine or kazakhstan according to russian legislation, but an independent state, well, it is independent, we recognized its independence and then it accepted that what is the problem, this is also not the first time, latvia, lithuania and estonia were accepted into the soviet union, but the vinsk people's republic, its small choir in

1944 decided to join the rsfsr as autonomous. region, there was not even a referendum there, but it was a quasi -independent state, because you understand that the tovinsk people's republic as a state was recognized only by the soviet union and the mongolian people's republic, as the dpr and the lpr, and that is, they simply annexed a territory that, from the point of view of international law , was considered part of china on all maps until the 40th year of the fourth year, that's all, that is, nothing new happened, it's just... what we saw in asia, they started doing in europe, everything , that is, it turns out that the western world needs to be as careful as possible in its every move, because putin has a habit of... pouncing and using it to his advantage, you can be careless, but you can understand the consequences, you just don't need to understand the consequences when you take the first step in some direction, you have to understand how it will go

on the chessboard, this is your opponent, huh, and to think what you will do next, well, the situation is like this, and now you and i have come to a new chess move, when the west speaks, and we still... anyway, you create all these countries are disabled, annex their territories, and we will still negotiate with them about the european union and nato, you will not stop us, and we will accept some into nato, and we will accept some into nato, and they are near your borders, ugh, yes, well , finland is located near the borders, part of whose territory was already stolen in the 40s of the past century, but it's like, well, here comes the question, you see, so actually, i do n't know how the west can act like... russia or china can't, but in any case they can do some kind of economic test ,

you also have to be realistic. the west has always had exaggerated expectations from its own economic pressure. and this was largely due to the fact that the west was always dealing with communist regimes and a planned economy. and to understand that... we are dealing with the market, it seems to me, only now this understanding comes, that iran has been living under western sanctions for decades, it is completely disconnected from swift, unlike russia, there are no credit cards, there is no that, this, the third, the fifth, the 10th, the 25th, at that iran continues to produce a drone, i do not mean to say that the fact that it is there supports a certain stability in the country itself, despite the constant protests of the population, it participates in the war. as an equal player, it has quasi-armies in the palestinian authority and lebanon, it manufactures drones, it has a missile technique, what then gave such sanctions?

they were calculated on the fact that iran would abandon its aggressive policy, go to negotiations with the civilized world, if iran can exist in such a situation for decades, how long will the russian federation last? this is an excellent question. moreover , it turns out that the market allows to supply. some other side, huh, that if you decide that you don't live a lot of things, and you just decide that you will sell oil and gas to china, india, then you can with the poor population to exist indefinitely, you will have enough resources for many years, and then the question arises, maybe there are some other, other tools to stop the aggression, if these do not work, well, it seems to me that in the first half of our conversation with you ... talked about such tools that it is necessary to be able to end wars without russia, and without the consent of that side, so to speak, well , the war in korea would have ended by and large

without both koreas, the civil war in china ended without china, huh, you understand , the existence of the republic of china in taiwan, it's not because someone made an agreement with china, no one ever talked to him about it before ... he was simply told: this is taiwan, it is under the protection of the united states, there is a legitimate chinese government, you, of course, the civil war was won but power was usurped, you can sit on this mainland as long as you like, but we do not consider you to be the legitimate government of china, and this situation continued until the 70s, until henry kissinger pulled richard nixon into custody, there will be no now this, this too, by the way the result of the 23rd year, kissinger left, well , once he... and once it was supposed to happen, this is a great political and diplomatic career, but yes, one way or another, well, he left, he met with volodymyr zelensky before that, just think, kissinger , his career

was from brezhnev to zelensky, think about who else had such opportunities, a colossal path, well, but i'm just saying that this is also a good example, and by the way, if we already mentioned kissenger, kissenger , as a person, absolutely, realistically thinking. no, that's what he said year, on the eve of his death, that we did not want to take ukraine into nato, because we did not want a war, and the war had already begun, everything that we were afraid of happened, why should they not take them to nato, that is also a pra the answer is what i'm telling you, if the nato anniversary summit is held in the 24th year, has kissinger created a little bit of the right mood for at least some steps in this direction, oh, you know, kissinger is too realistic for those people, who rule the world today, even skisenger, i will tell you honestly, there are certain fears here, fear. and we feel it, i'm always

a supporter of what many ukrainians don't like, and many in the west don't like, and in principle, just this year the former secretary general of nato, andres falk rasmusson, said about it, yeah, and i think about it too spoke this year, and i know that they talked about it in 2022, i am very surprised by the story, we just met there recently with the former foreign minister. affairs of ukraine pavlo klimkin, i tell him, please explain, i told about the option that ukraine receives guarantees, security for the controlled territory, and join nato, or receive security guarantees until the moment of accession, i told this in the middle of 2023, and everyone says that i put forward such an idea, but i did not put it forward, you told me this on the air , no...

some kind of private conversation on the air of the tv channel in the first months of the russian-ukrainian war, i don't remember when we can watch it on the air there in march, in april we talked in our lviv studio, and mr. pavlo was on the call yazuk and he told that there were such options are being actively discussed in western political circles, how to bring ukraine closer to nato, maybe give, invite it to nato in all its territorial integrity, huh. but the security guarantees should be distributed only in the territory controlled by the ukrainians, and this was sometime in march 22, he said, you can refer to me absolutely safely, of course i can, we already have a record, i didn’t make this up, i just i don't want anyone to think that there are some ideas floating in the air, and i, as a journalist, can voice an idea, but that's exactly what it is. idea, i just don't think i have to invent it, because it's simple, i think i'm capable of inventing something more complicated than this archimedes' law, you know, i took a bath and

there you are. somehow squeezed out, squeezed out, you squeezed out the water, well, well, i'm not saying that this idea is optimal, but what rasmussen already said about it out loud, uh, and many of the current western politicians will discuss it, means that certain security options, you know, security, that is, the end of this war without russia, if you want, because what that means if... we get an invitation to nato at the washington summit, let's say, and the united states and the united kingdom give us security guarantees, there against a nuclear attack, some kind of security guarantees that finland, sweden, you remember, when they received the invitation, from my point of view it means that no more rockets will come to us, yes, yes, uh, we are not

bound by years? this is a question of our agreement with nato, what will the agreement look like, on which territory, what can we do, it is now our hands are not tied when they say that they give us western weapons, but you cannot shoot on the territory of russia, does it tie our hands or not, we have other tools, well, that's what i say in any in any case, our hands are tied by this situation, which means that there are various tied hands even without nato, there is no nato yet, but there are already tied hands, but... but from the western point of view, from the point of view of let's say president biden, it looks completely different, that we will be invited to nato, or we will be given security guarantees, tomorrow russia will launch a missile attack to kyiv, and what should we do, we gave guarantees, we admitted to nato, this is an attack on nato, ugh, and here, and here i am, if you like, two schools of thought, i cannot say that my point vision is ideal for one simple

reason. "i'm not the president of the united states , unfortunately, if i were the president , i imagine myself sitting in the oval office and having to make a decision that could cost my own country a war. i don't know how i would act, it's easy to say things like that when you don't have that responsibility, but when you do you have, when a nuclear suitcase is standing next to you, you behave differently, you understand, you begin to perceive and weigh all these risks in a completely different way." and that's why, that's why i think that the search for these mechanisms will continue. that 's all. you understand ?i see. let 's talk a little bit about what internally maybe should be done or what will happen in terms of what has already been done and what hasn't been done in 2023. there are some bullet points in our internal.