local units of resistance, which were organized at the level of battalions of brigades, and not at the level of an operational war group, in my personal opinion, let's say this, it was worth immediately withdrawing to the lines favorable for defense , giving the territory to the enemy, but preserving, first of all, human resources, no allies to us they will not give infantry. and, accordingly, to preserve a huge amount of the same ammunition with the production of which the world defense industry is still not able to cope well, i personally am inclined to the fact that it was worth retreating, well, but it would, for example, not have driven the same infantry of wagner, who would not have stopped after they captured bakhmut, yes, i think, they would have tried to go further. certainly there would

be less enemy, but let's compare the situation in a mirror, the one in the zaporizhzhia direction and the one in the bakhmutsky direction. the enemy built a huge number of defensive structures, trenches, explosive and explosive barriers, laid minefields with a depth of 15 km, which we overcome in six months. we were also hindered by something commit in the bakhmut area. leveling the front line, shortening its length , hiding behind such structures, we would grind the same number of the enemy as we grinded in street battles, but we would pay less for it, it seems, uh, but tell me, look, well, the problem not only was there in the mining of the enemy's artillery, the problem is also that what zaluzhny wrote in his article, the saturation of drones. and

the impossibility due to this to concentrate in the principle of strength, because everything is clearly visible, and actually this problem would not be changed from the fact that we would have a little more artillery there or less, well, i am not even sure that it would have changed much if we had added aviation, that is, the problem of saturation with drones and their countermeasures, it remains, and something it is somehow not entirely clear what to do with it. first of all, it is not necessary to measure by quantities, whoever spends the available resources more effectively, accordingly, gets better results. we have an army of drones, we have something for the ministry of defense, drones are purchased by the state special service of communication and technical protection information, it is not at all clear why she got in there. the ministry of culture on television is collecting for drones for the state border service. our adversary

simply evicted woodmurks from merchant trading centers and launched the production of various types of unmanned aerial vehicles there, two approaches to solving the problem of gaining dominance in the segment of unmanned aerial vehicles of the tactical operational link, you can talk about it, or you can do it, who is better from that one will succeed, that one will get the result, the second one moment... countermeasures against any system that is controlled via a radio channel can be organized accordingly by suppressing this channel, the enemy just as suddenly brought to the line of battle a huge number of small radio electronic warfare systems of local that cover small positions, individual units of combat equipment . yes,

accordingly, we are trying to do the same, but so far we are losing in terms of volume. one more point: in the eye, small means of radio-electronic countermeasures, which are needed at platoon reference points, on a separate tank, self-propelled guns, armored personnel carriers. in the world of such production, the required scope simply does not exist today, this is a discovery that happened in this war, and whoever adapts faster, according to the situation, gains an advantage, but look, well, at this point , all the stories with drones, with the that it is now a very important force on the battlefield, for example, the provision of aviation from those f there 16, which we have all been talking about here for a long time, is it capable now in this situation to really somehow change or significantly change the situation on the battlefield, as you evaluate, it depends on... what you

fear more, air defense or enemy aircraft, now the picture looks like this: we, with objectively. reasons for a year and a half we have not seen air battles between aircraft, because both sides of the war do not risk flying deep into the enemy's territory and try to operate from beyond the range of anti-aircraft weapons of each side. the second moment, the enemy lost a huge number of highly qualified pilots who started the war 32... 24 aircraft the machines are lost, there are about 350-400 pilots who died, will no longer return to flying work, or are in our captivity, accordingly, this factor has an equally

serious effect, because the qualifications on that side of the people who pilot various types of aircraft have definitely fallen . the next point, we do not see the use of aviation on a massive scale , all that the enemy now has can create an advantage over the battlefield, where the operation is carried out by a force of the size of a reinforced battalion, a battalion tactical group, we do not see that squadrons are used, especially shelves or aviation brigades, on our side, the same thing... is happening, and it is explained by the fact that we are simply short of aircraft, so if suddenly we receive any type of aircraft from the allies, it will not automatically mean that we have gained some advantage, who

has a greater range of detection of the aircraft in the air and a greater range on board the means of aircraft destruction, that is what i say. will dictate the further development of events, but certainly the receipt of aircraft from the allies will allow us, firstly, to level the situation in in the sky, secondly, to drive off the enemy who is using glide aerial bombs on front-line targets, that will be a very great relief to the forces on the ground, yes, it will be a very great relief indeed, especially as far as aerial bombs are concerned, yes, i agree with you absolutely. let's take a very short commercial break now, and after that we'll talk more, maybe about some plans and what we see in the future,

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so, we summed up the results of the 23rd year a little and we are talking now with viktor kievlyuk , a military expert of the center for defense strategies, a reserve colonel of the armed forces of ukraine, we will try to make some predictions about what may happen in 2024, and you know, we will start with a certain one, and you will probably also saw these thoughts in the build about the fact that... in the 24th year, they will try to recapture all of donbas and donetsk and

luhansk regions, and then go to the dnipro and then there for the 25th year of the capture of new territories, as you just treat these predictions as they are at all may be somewhat realistic, or why are such forecasts made at all, and they have an election and despite the fact that it is an election without an election, the first person is worried about his rating and tries to prove to the electorate that he foresees the future , what she has in her plans, that the state under her leadership has not lost geopolitical influence, that they will have something to do in the future, they have not laid down their arms, everything is going according to plan, they are in... and actually speaking, based on internal consumer and

the following statements are made. and tell me, well, what would you do in general, they called such achievements of the defense forces of ukraine in the 23rd year, which laid down some things that can be, well, will be developed in the 24th year as well, not in terms of importance, but more or less chronologically. the first such event is the fighting for solidar, this is a case when our troops calmly and plannedly withdrew to a profitable line and, stopping the enemy, made it so that no one mentions solidar, probably for at least seven or eight months, what is happening there, why the enemy settled down below, on the ruins of a settlement, it is not clear, no. no tactical ones achievements, no impact on the operational situation, but the example of an organized

retreat at an early stage prepared for the frontline is a good example of the actions of the troops, perhaps more will be needed, the battles for bakhmut, of course, this is heroism and courage, the resilience of servicemen, all that happened at the tactical level, this is a contribution to the treasury of tactical skill. this experience of fighting in the city should be seriously analyzed, studied, and disseminated. likewise, the actions of the southern bakhmuto assault units in the battles for... krischiivka and andriivka also an example of successful actions, when we defeated larger enemy formations with limited forces, not only forcing them to retreat, but also defeating, well, at least their combat units, of course,

it is difficult to get support units there, interesting to such rather military-political, rather than military... ukraine's declaration of six areas of the black sea as dangerous for shipping is a lamb. suddenly, a country with very limited means of warfare at sea has imposed its own rules of the game, and the enemy is forced to hide from everything black sea fleets throughout the black sea coast. a very good move, very strong, the use of unmanned naval strike assets in... well, let's say, somewhat turned the imagination of warfare at sea today. very interesting are the actions of the main , main intelligence agency, which, first of all, initially captured and returned to the control of ukraine the drilling platforms located in

the black sea, after that several raids in the crimea, a window was broken in... the air defense system and in the radar intelligence of the enemy, through this window is inflicted a series of missile strikes that disabled the headquarters of the black sea fleet, destroyed a submarine, several carriers of naval cruise missiles, this is also a very instructive example of how it is possible to comprehensively and systematically penetrate the enemy's defenses in selected directions and cause him asymmetric... means of enormous losses, because neither the damaged missile corvette nor the submarine will return to service until the end of the war, if they return at all, well, the attack on the headquarters of the black sea fleet, where meetings were held at the time of the hit and was a considerable number of staff officers, both

land and sea, have been destroyed, an equally splendid achievement. so here i would add the offensive operation in the zaporizhzhia region, this is the first attempt at a large-scale offensive, several operational groups of troops were engaged in combat at the same time, unfortunately, from the outside, all this seemed like three separate operations, and not one large strategic offensive, maybe we something was not understood. did not take care of it, but this is a very positive example, if we take into account the problems and shortcomings, in the future this experience will also be very valuable the experience of capturing the bridgeheads on the left bank of the dnieper by the ukrainian marines of the kherson

region is extremely interesting and worth sharing. purely tactical actions led to operational collapse. group of enemy troops on the dnieper, now their commander is forced to throw into battle the 18th general military army, which is not fully formed, it cannot achieve any results, it suffers huge losses, and at the same time it cannot do anything with our bridgeheads yet, i think that the size bridgeheads will increase, our goal is to push back... enemy positions artillery and anti-aircraft defense positions of the enemy as far as possible to the left bank in order to give the purely civilian population on our de-occupied bank of the dnieper the opportunity to live and work more or less peacefully, but the treasure trove of achievements of the defensive

operation in the vdiiv direction is very interesting. the enemy started the operation at the same time. attacking in 14 directions, and our group was ready for this, that is, our scouts were working, the probable nature of the enemy's actions was very accurately predicted, and the defense resisted, being ready to repulse such a large-scale offensive accordingly, the situation there is difficult, not critical, but difficult, but we showed what we are capable of, so perhaps those events for me... are the most significant in the 23rd year, well, in addition to showing what they are capable of, well, in principle, they destroyed some fairly serious enemy forces, which is also important in this whole situation, huh. you know, not so long ago there was an article in the new york times, where it was written that, as if between sha and ukraine, opinions differ on how to wage war with

the russian federation and the american military seem to believe that ukraine should focus on defense, now rearm there, well, somehow concentrate there, produce weapons in the end, and at the same time not counterattack, at least that's how i understood it. and as if ukraine still wants to conduct offensive actions also in order to have more advantageous positions, and in general, is it achievable in practice to go into blind defense and is it generally so, well, if, you know, it is correct to talk about some kind of blind defense? well , first of all, a war for any media is a good reason to remind subscribers that the media exist. publications in even the world's leading media are an excuse to talk, but not to adjust military plans.

as for purely expert opinions on this matter, which, however, are spread in a slightly different information environment, the idea of ​​blind defense is a doomed idea. defense can be successful only if it is active, but the scale of activity should be discussed. i would advise those who are interested in the issue of war to re-read the interview that the bbc did with the former commander-in-chief of the armed forces of ukraine, general muzhenko, he shares his vision and recommends moving to strategic defense. periodically making counterattacks , but i share exactly this point of view, because if the enemy does not impose our will, in

the end he will seize the initiative and force us to play by his rules, this is the way to advice, look, well, of course we understand, and at least we heard this one is already from the russians, that the russian occupying army is still going to take offensive actions. this year, they did not succeed in these large-scale actions, but we heard, for example, at putin's press conference, he said there that they have already concentrated 600,000 of their troops there , precisely in the area of ​​hostilities, and actually, how do you assess them, this capacity for such a larger-scale offensive and what its directions might be, well, let's try. predict their actions? everything is much simpler: from what the person who says that he is putin has concentrated, there are two,

three, as many as there are, this does not mean that this actually happened. eh, all the available forces and means of the enemy are involved in hostilities today. it has practically no operational reserves, and absolutely no strategic reserves. he formed two armies 18-25 , both have been fighting for two months, being underformed, not having military units of the army kit, but the need for infantry is forced by the military leadership of the enemy, these military units of the formation are not fully ready to throw into combat operations , based on what we see now and the fact that... that the other day at a press conference the leader of the enemy said: we can conclude the following: before the elections they have there

should take place in march, the enemy will try to reach the frontier along the oskil river in the kharkiv region. if he succeeds, the opponent will try next year. capture the kharkiv region completely, today we see that out of four tank divisions, having three in the kharkiv direction, the enemy was unable to do absolutely anything, except to lose a huge amount of combat equipment and advance 2-3 km in separate directions, say that suddenly some miracle will happen and they still end up on the bank of the river... bodies will come out, i don’t see any chance, a little further south is bakhmut, and also in order

to possess the entire territory of the enemy, it is necessary to break through the lines in the area of ​​bakhmut and avdiyivka, then fight in the temporary yar somehow in pokrovsk and further through kurakhov to move another 80 km, with a pace of progress of 2 km per month, they will have 40 months to go there, mathematics says so, so the chances are not only before the elections. to fulfill the tasks of the russian president and take control of the luhansk and donetsk regions in full volume, there are absolutely no chances. the battles near avdeivka: the enemy has a colossal advantage, but he is not fighting there for a military victory, but with an informational pretext to announce that we have won a victory before the elections. well, so far the victory is kind of conditional, it doesn't turn out

very well. enormous resources are being spent, and i think that this difficult struggle, sometimes in favor of the enemy, then in our favor, will continue there for more than one month, even further, to the south, zaporizhzhia, zaporizhzhia region, the southwestern part of donetsk region, the enemy is leading defense, unfortunately, we do not have sufficient resources to develop our offensive, but in certain... areas we are confidently overcoming the second defensive line, if we focus on developing this success, it can fundamentally break the overall situation at the front. kherson region, i really hope that we will have the strength and means to combine several tactical ones into one

operational one with sufficient depth. 10-15 km is enough for the enemy, well, at least 80% of his firepower to lose the ability to strike on the right bank dnipro, and we, on the other hand, gained the opportunity to transfer heavy equipment and artillery to this bridgehead at least with a firing range of 20-30 km, which can also significantly change the situation in this direction, after all. the kherson region is the key to crimea, i think that events should develop in this way, if you look at the floor above, most likely, in the next six months, the enemy will impose some kind of negotiations on a ceasefire, on a temporary ceasefire, as we already had, if not the christmas truce, then

new year, easter. the day of knowledge , harvest, there is something else, but all this is just a smoke screen, the enemy will prepare, accumulate operational strategic reserves in order to continue the offensive and act in the manner in which the president of the russian federation spoke the other day. well, clearly, it seems that the plan for the coming months for the defense forces of ukraine is to maintain the defense and achieve the maximum. an expert of the center of defense strategies, a reserve colonel of the armed forces of ukraine, who gave us a little, you know, insiders of what could happen in 2024 on the battlefield, you and i see you again

in ukraine, it's 6 p.m. and we have a news release on the spresso tv channel, in the studio of iryna koval. greetings to all viewers. ukraine did not ask turkey to let the ministry of trawlers into the black sea. it's about ships. and cherkasy, which were handed over to us by great britain, the spokesman of the naval forces , dmytro pletenchuk, said. according to him, ukraine did not leave such a request, because it understands the effect of the montreux convention, according to which turkey does not allow refi warships to enter the black sea. so for now, for demining the sea ukraine uses special robotic equipment and drones. strengthening the european.