yourself and your relatives, goodbye. the yemeni houthis block the red sea. can this affect the situation in ukraine? let's analyze together in today's issue of bbc ukraine. i am olga polomaryuk. finance experts. analysts warn, the situation in the red sea can paralyze world trade, western countries sign joint statements and threaten to take measures, could another military conflict begin? israel's war with hamas, which has been going on for almost three months , has led to large-scale disruptions in world trade. yemeni houthis in solidarity with... palestinians are blocking merchant ships, and

several ships have come under fire. and why is it important, because the consequences of this blocking are already felt all over the world, including in ukraine. the red sea is the main trade route between asia and europe. since november, houthi rebels have been attacking merchant ships in the babel-mandep strait. here it is on a map between yemen and the african republic of djibouti. well, according to analysts, they pass through this waterway. from 10 to 15% of world trade, including 13% of the whole oil and almost 22% of oil products, as well as 30% of container transportation. the nakhoshi control a large part of yemen, enjoy the support of iran and consider saudi arabia, the united states and israel as enemies. they claimed that their target was the israeli merchant fleet, but vessels not related to israel came under fire, from yes. most of the world's

ship owners have redirected container ships by a long way to bypass africa, the houthi attacks are beneficial to both iran and russia, as they undermine the image of the united states as a guarantor of world security trade in addition, the new crisis adds to the headache of nato countries that help ukraine and israel. and in the meantime, the world is thinking about how best to approach the problem and how it can be solved. so, the day before, 12 countries, in particular the usa and... great britain, published a joint statement, warning the yemeni houthis against further attacks on commercial vessels. later, members of the un security council made the same appeal. the united nations continues to warn of the adverse political, security, economic and humanitarian consequences of military escalation in to the red sea and the risk of aggravation of regional tensions, the constant threats to maritime shipping by the houthis combined with the risk. further military

escalation remains a serious concern and could potentially affect millions of people in yemen in the region and around the world. attacks on merchant ships and threats to retaliate have added tension to an already volatile region, according to the bbc's james landale. since november last year, the houthi rebels have been attacking fighters from yemen, who are supported by iran commercial vessels in the red sea, at least 20 times. they used drones, missiles, speedboats, and sometimes even helicopters. according to their often false claims, these cargoes are somehow connected to israel. the international community has already warned them not to do so, with warships from the united states and great britain shooting down some of the missiles. a naval alliance was formed to protect the ships, but in most cases these attempts were unsuccessful, so now these 12 countries have officially warned the houthis of the consequences. if similar

attacks will not stop, this can be interpreted as a threat of military action against targets in yemen, where these missiles are stored and from where they are launched, and this causes certain concerns. this is important because 15% of world trade routes pass through the red sea. already, many container ships and oil tankers choose another route that passes under south africa, but this significantly increases fuel costs. supply chains are disrupted because of this threat to security. the un held a great debate, the actions of the houthis were categorically condemned and warned against a possible aggravation of the situation, because it is still not clear what iran's response might be if the west strikes their yemeni allies, we will continue the topic together with the expert, the president of the strategy 21 center for global studies mykhailo gonchar is in touch with us, welcome to the broadcast , but we said that supply interruptions have already begun in the world. cargoes

are forced to be delivered in a detour, this is additional time, additional costs, it is interesting how this crisis in the red sea affects ukraine, well , so far we have not... felt it, and i do not think that at the average level, we will feel this, because one way or another, the result of a rather long-term policy of reorientation of ukraine's trade relations to the european union by western countries allows us to mitigate the possible consequences now, since, for example, the trade traffic that goes through the suez, red sea, babelmandeb there in africa, let's say, he is not so significant. another thing is when we talk about asia, it is more tangible there, but again due to the fact that our main trading partner is one way or another the european union, countries of the european union, then i think that certainly those who are engaged in companies,

large ones, who are primarily engaged in agrarian business, agrarian exports, they will feel these consequences, because the shoulder is a third longer with... instead of the traditional route through the suez red sea babelmandeb, this is definitely an increase in costs and not only for fuel. well, in addition, it should be taken into account that these global disruptions in trade traffic will also lead to an increase in rates, freight and other costs, and therefore it will undoubtedly give a more tangible effect over time result. but here what is important, it is important, these events that became possible in the red sea, babel-mandeb, they are to a large extent the consequence of the inaction of the western alliances, primarily nato, in the black sea, where

for almost two years russia successfully carried out a sea blockade of ukraine. of ukraine and despite all the slogans about support for freedom of navigation in the world ocean, especially from the united states, this had no effect on russia, it continued in its inherent spirit, moreover, military aggression against of ukraine since february 22nd, and accordingly no reaction to this... of the alliance and the united states, well, apart from the verbal reaction of condemnation, deep concern, actually only stimulated russia's aggressive actions. mr. mykhailo, i want to interrupt you here with your permission, but in your opinion, why is this happening, why is the event being delayed, and in general,

what can he do? well, look, it ’s precisely the delays in the black sea, and they continue, they have become... the stimulus there is not so much for the houthis, but for iran, because here is this axis of interaction, russia-iran the houthis, it is now clearly visible, and you rightly noted in your comments there that exactly what is happening in babelmandeb, it is in the interests of iran and russia above all, for the simple reason that it helps to stimulate the rise of oil prices, and actually speaking , i think that... the main idea behind this iranian-houthi special operation was to eventually add additional turbulence to the world oil market, because the numbers that sounded in your comment, they eloquently testify

that a significant volume of traffic and crude oil and petroleum products goes precisely through this route of the sued, red sea, babelmandeb, that is why we see it here. that it did not have such a powerful effect, but it did not because there is a parallel process that is positive for the oil market, the growth of oil production in the united states, and other countries, where problems arose in the format of opec plus, the withdrawal of angola, that is, if these measures did not allow , essentially iran and russia to spin this spiral of rising oil prices, and actually speaking, arabia is also interested in this. and we see it now rather interesting behavior of the saudis. it is known that the houthis have traditionally struck the saudi oil infrastructure. now they don't. because obviously, in

the eyes of iran and in the eyes of russia, saudi arabia is moving in the right direction, so to speak, from their point of view in the right direction. since it joined the brics, and since... only china played a kind of mediating role and supposedly reconciled iran and saudi arabia, and now they are working together to defeat the west, which... so far china did not interfere in the situation, yes, although its economy is very dependent on trade with europe, why is beijing silent in your opinion? well, he is not silent, he made a corresponding statement, but it, as usual in chinese diplomacy, has a general, abstract character, they did not even point out the houthis as violators of this international maritime order, but simply called for the problem to be solved, and at the same time... they do not want to join, and they, by the way, and india are also in that coalition, well, formally 44 countries,

who, so to speak, supported the necessary measures in order to restore order in this sector of the world ocean, and we see that the real coalition is only 12 countries, that is, it just shows that there is no... despite correct statements and on the part of the western countries, let them be careful on the part of china and india, but there is no such consolidation of the synergy of actions, and therefore it opens up additional space for the possibility of further damage to that trade traffic, which is quite successfully done by iranian proxies, well speaking , inactivity or, say, slow comprehension. the speed of rapid actions on the part of western countries, first of all on the part of nato,

i believe, it leads to even additional stimulation of such destructive activity, it is about the fact that not only would it be necessary to shoot down with the available means the ship group, under the auspices of the united states there states, those drones or guided missiles. which are launched in the direction of merchant ships, because it would be possible to solve the issue also quickly and by setting up means in this zone of radio-electronic warfare, which created obstacles for the targeted flight of these weapons used by the houthis. well, i would like more now, i apologize again for interrupting you, but i would like to concentrate again. in ukraine, in russia's war against ukraine, to what extent does the crisis in the red sea distract western attention from russia's war

against ukraine? well, to a certain extent it distracts, and this is also one of the goals of such russian early hussite covert interaction in order to divert attention from ukraine, but pay attention attention to another thing, that only the effective actions of the forces of ukraine in the black sea made it possible to partially solve the issue of unblocking ukrainian ports, neither nato, nor the european union, nor any of these three black sea member countries of nato, turkey, bulgaria, romania , there are two members of the european union, romania and bulgaria, none of them took part in this. in fact, only the armed forces of ukraine showed the required algorithm. to act, force must be answered with force. now, if we look at the red sea, of course,

ukraine does not have the opportunity to operate in the red sea, although it is worth remembering the best times, so to speak, the atalanta operation of the european union, to counter pirates in the somali pirates in the gulf of aden, it is an example of successful cooperation and effectiveness. that is why, and again , such forceful actions, in fact acts of terror, must be responded to with forceful actions, and not just verbal statements, deep concerns, yes, thank you, thank you, unfortunately, mykhailo gonchar, president of the center for global studies strategy 21 was in touch with us, we talked about the situation in the red sea, well, that's all more history for today, as always, look for it on our bbc. ua. i 'll see you tomorrow, all the best.

i have always believed that a political nation is precisely united by mutual respect. whatever nationality you are. in ukraine, they voted for a recidivist thief, and also with great satisfaction that such a person can definitely be a strong business owner. how can we build a state that simply will not disappear from the political map of the world. and where are these people, who in general believe that ukraine is ukraine and that its history has nothing to do with russian, that its past is not russian, that the civilian population has never been the focus of attention of army units, that the terrorist states themselves, such as russia, such as iran and others , can also level the forms

of international law, our first task is the preservation of the ukrainian state. ukraine as a bomb shelter, ukraine as a refuge, ukraine as a state that must ensure the survival and development of the ukrainian people, which in principle is the main duty of any civilized state. life itself tells the story. of course, when i planned the topic of this lecture, i... could not have guessed about these subjects, although i should have suspected, it is not only a high standard of living, not only a developed economy, not only cultural enrichment, not only universities and schools, although this is also very important, but on the other hand,

your university and national school can be in any other country where you are in the minority, but your... armed forces, and i think there is no need to explain this to ukrainians today, they can only be where you are the masters, your special services, your state infrastructure, everything that should ensure you the opportunity not just to survive, but to defend and win, can only be in your own state , and then you don't have to rely on other people, i belong to... one of the first generations of people of jewish origin, who were born when this state was, i was actually born in 1967, when israel won the six-day war, when was released from occupation of jerusalem, when jerusalem became the full-fledged capital of this state, and i always grew up with the understanding that this state exists,

defends itself, wins, develops, and that's why it was so painful for me to look at my ukrainian friends or classmates who lived essentially in an atmosphere of statelessness, perhaps without realizing it, because many of the jews lived in an atmosphere without statehood until the state of israel appeared, just like in a normal atmosphere, when you don't have something, you may not even realize that for what it's worth, just like that like when you already have it and start losing it and we... all of you, i think, would have felt emotionally on february 24, 2022, how painful it is to lose what seemed to you to be just air and a constant. ukrainian statelessness also had tragic consequences for the ukrainian people over the centuries. you know all this very well from history, because

once again there can be a government that will pretend to be a government. ukrainian, as it was from the ukrainian ssr, will open schools, universities, engage in ukrainianization, translate the works of the classics into ukrainian marxism, leninism, but here is the holodomor and it is absolutely obvious that this is not any ukrainian government, because it does not protect you, but destroys you at the behest of moscow, and everyone who is in this government competes with others in order to destroy.. more than my own compatriots, because this is the logic of the existence of any colonial, occupying government, and we must always remember this, and that is why, when we talk about how ukraine looked, looks and will look, i always i say that we should think

about this shelter, about ukraine took place precisely as a state. of the ukrainian people and those citizens of ukraine who realize this and share these values, because only a state that acts as a national refuge is able to protect minorities, is able to understand the problems of others, is able to tolerate those who respect this state for its cultural, political, historical values, a state that does not happen like that... such a shelter, as a rule, ignores the needs and demands of everyone else, because what is the difference, we live like this, and you will live like this, and this is also an absolutely obvious point. what are we we must always remember when we are told: here you speak with nationalist slogans, do you want the priority of one nation over

others? no, we just want the citizens of ukraine to have equal chances in the ukrainian state, citizens of all nationalities and any religion, except russian, of course, but i hope that soon there will be no russian church on our land either, just as there is no russian state , so i think that... people who are christians of the ukrainian orthodox church of the moscow patriarchate, get their own ukrainian church on this land, this should also be understood as an important task for the future, and such a state, it really is an example of how to solve all these complex problems that exist between the representatives of this single political nation, but i always believed that that a political nation is united by mutual respect, no matter what nationality you are. whatever language you use in everyday life, but you should respect the people who created this state to protect themselves, their values, their historical and

cultural heritage, and this is so logical, that i always regret that i have to talk about this all the time in the classrooms in ukraine, because i understand very well that such a conversation would never take place somewhere in poland or in bulgaria or in france, there for all... people, it is absolutely obviously, here people have to be convinced of this, people have to be convinced that the state was really threatened and is threatened by danger, people have to be convinced that you and i are in the territory, which is essentially not just the state of the ukrainian people, but also land claimed by another. the state of russia, which believes that this is part of its imperial territory, that in order to survive and build a state, we need to defend

ourselves in this country, and that the last year and a half seems absolutely logical to the vast majority, and that the last decade , seems perfectly clear to many people who have taken the threat seriously. related to the occupation, annexation of crimea and the beginning of the war in donbas, remember that for ten years this was not recognized, ignored, considered absolutely inappropriately, a huge part of our society, and wherever our armed forces were, how could we allow them to be effectively destroyed in the first decade of independence. and that the last ministers of defense before russia's attack on ukraine in 2014 were actually citizens of the russian federation. president of ukraine,

prime minister of ukraine, first vice prime minister of ukraine, minister of internal affairs of ukraine, prosecutor general of ukraine, head of the security service of ukraine, chairman of the national bank of ukraine. i'm just listing it all that i remember. first, everyone fled to the russian federation, to the country that attacked us. imagine any other state in a situation before the war, that is, before the war, when the entire british government, or the entire politburo of the central committee of the all-union communist party of the bolsheviks, grabbed their suitcases and fled to berlin, how long did such a state last, what would it be? had as an anecdote, as proof that the people living on the territory of this state are incapable of state building, but we

had exactly such a state. we are amazed at the people in the united states, who want to vote for donald trump with all the legal charges that will be brought against him, and i apologize, no one has yet convicted president trump, in ukraine they voted for a repeat thief and ... with great pleasure that such a person sure can be a strong business owner, who else can be a strong business owner but a recidivist thief, this is our model of success in this society, and this is a huge moment of truth that we have been experiencing for the past decades, must finally find an answer to the question of how to build a state that we would not be ashamed of, i would even say more... tell us how to build a state that simply will not disappear from the political map of the world, because it is absolutely obvious that this is the main goal of the russian

president, and is absolutely but it is obvious that the russian president enjoys the overwhelming support of the majority of his compatriots in this situation, who are simply divided into two, i would say, different groups, one minority, the other majority, and the minority believes that for the sake of restoring the historical territory it is worth fighting, and it is worth acting by economic and political means, and the majority believes that in order to return to the borders of mother russia , it is possible to drop a nuclear bomb, that is mother, she demands, but where are these people who generally believe that ukraine is ukraine, and that its history has nothing to do with russian, that its past is not russian, there are almost no such people in russia, and by the way, if the whole

society is... in such a historical mirage, in such a historical falsification, then it does not even matter, it adheres to the views that it is necessary to solve the ukrainian problem by force, that it is necessary to solve the ukrainian problem politically, it is important that the person who tries to solve this problem will always enjoy the overwhelming support of the vast majority of russian citizens, this is a huge problem of our coexistence with the russians and... a pretty good parallel can be drawn here , which is a real illustration of the globalization of such conflicts. when we talk about the conflict in the middle east, the arab population of palestine is also divided into two unequal parts. one part is those who says that it is necessary to solve the problems with the jews by political means,

the other believes that it is necessary to liberate the territory by force, but... everyone agrees that there should not be jews in this territory, that they never lived there, no should live and are the occupiers of arab lands, and when 99% of people think so, then any force that tries to solve this issue can hope for public support, this is also quite an obvious point that i want to make when we discuss such problems. another obvious point is that you and i... are building a state in a completely special historical period in the history of mankind in general, because the previous wars were exactly wars of armies, armies met on the battlefield, they tried to defeat each other, the civilian population was never the focus of attention of army units, even during the second world

war, the wehrmacht tried.. . to distance ourselves from crimes against the civilian population committed by the ss or other special services of hitler's germany, this has always been a matter, if you will, of honor for any army, we are not participants in war crimes, even if we commit them, we are fighting the same soldiers as ourselves. we are now in a period of, i would say , a terrorist triumph, when states are behaving like terrorist organizations, because... basically, what russia did in buch, or in izyum, or in mariupol, is practically the same , what hamas, which is a classic terrorist organization, is doing now on the territory of israel, and vice versa, when terrorist organizations, it started from the time of al-qaeda and the islamic state, and now it has passed to hamas, have structures that their effectiveness and the possibility of attack are equal to the structures of classical states, and

at the same time these organizations do not obey ... any norms of international law, and in this situation terrorist states themselves, such as russia, such as iran and others, can also level the forms of international law , because they cease to operate in the modern world. what then is the main task for you and me? our first task is to preserve the ukrainian state. we must clearly understand that its disappearance, its transformation is just another one province. this chimerical historical russia is the main goal of our enemy, not crimea, not donbas, not the south, but simply that ukraine does not exist, this is what the russians put into words the final solution of the ukrainian issue, because this is the final solution of the ukrainian issue for russians are the key to the empire, for centuries ukrainians

were the only real russian people. empire that could...