you will see him, he is one of the founders of your organization, as far as i remember, and now we are again talking about our rear problems or not problems, about successes or not successes, about the economy of 2024, we will talk with oleg penzen penzen, economist, member of the economic discussion club, we are about to discuss, mr. oleg, thank you for finding time for us, good health to you, we have seen each other, we have been with you for a long time. used to see each other more often than now, have not seen each other since the beginning of the war, and actually during the active phase of hostilities, look, i will try to ask very simplified questions and first i will inform the audience that the questions will be as if it is money in your pockets, ladies and gentlemen, because the budget of ukraine is actually in ukraine's pocket, how much money is there, as in your family, or your family, or mine.

does any family have money, are there friends who can lend, if there is not enough money, is there an opportunity to sell something, is there an opportunity somewhere , well, somehow, to endure this way, not to eat some kind of food, not to drink some expensive wine, but to switch to beer and so on, that is, of these of these calculations, we see that income differs from... expenses by approximately two times, that is , translating into normal language, your salary is 20,000 uah, let's say, and your expenses are 40,00 uah, that's normal, it's enough, we can live with it , mr. oleg, we can, we can have someone to count on, there is somewhere to borrow, we can tighten the belts, or do i... in your opinion, is this a healthy economy,

considering the war, it is definitely a sick economy, if it would be 2015, and even more so 2005, because in the 15th it already started military actions in the east, what do you say, well, you are absolutely right, this is a military economy, well , at least in terms of finances, although no one brought the economy to the military rails, but they put it in conditions. and you are absolutely right when you compared the state budget with the family budget and talked about having good friends, neighbors from whom you can borrow money for a certain period of time, but surely no neighbor will give you money all the time , though even that he fears that this invader who has come has taken away from you one room, then he will go to him to select a room as well. in any case

, you must understand that he does not take money out of thin air, he takes money from his income , if he gives you something, he will be able to spend less on himself, so you should always be very careful about macro-financial assistance that , which we are counting on, covering this huge budget deficit, indeed a budget deficit of 1.6 trillion uah, that is about 37.38 billion dollars, which we need to cover through borrowing, through macro-financial assistance, uh, we already have today saw that there are certain problems with this, and uh, well, we are all waiting for the end of january, when the issue of the main amounts of this macro-financial aid should be resolved, i want to remind you that we have more than 37.5 billion of that.

10 are less confirmed, that is, 27 are divided as follows: something from the european union, something from the americans. in the 23rd year, the european union gave us 18 billion euros, this year it will probably give us less, and if there are certain problems with, well , hungary, it will continue to block the issue, then the european union even has a plan b. about which the high-ranking officials of the european commission announced to us, and this plan b is approximately the same as that which was for the allocation of funds to the countries of the european union, and actually, which were supposed to overcome the consequences of the pandemic, that is, it was done as follows: specific countries gave guarantees, financial guarantees of the european commission , the european commission within the limits of these financial guarantees, without waiting for the confirmation of all 27 countries of the european union, gave money. within the limits

of the guarantees, what is the problem here, in order to get those guarantees, you need to get the support of the parliaments of these countries, because well in any civilized country, all budgetary issues are yours. parliaments, that is, if hungary's veto cannot be overcome at the beginning of february, then it will take at least a month, or even one and a half , for germany, france, and italy to pass through their parliaments guarantee obligations in relation to the european commission, and it will provide money, this is the picture of the european union, well there... at least plan b exists, and we heard about it from european high-ranking officials, the situation with the americans worse, because there is a tight binding of the senate and the house of representatives to this very budget of 61 billion dollars, which is extremely

necessary for ukraine, i want to note that we are talking here primarily not even about macro-financial assistance, which is there somewhere... 9 9 billion dollars, we are talking about military and technical, that is, we have already heard that it is quite possible that the same missiles for the patriots may not be enough, other aid may not be enough, because there is simply no approved funding, actually from the united states of america, and what allocated for the 23rd year, we already had everything transferred, but this is actually a problem, because... i must repeat once again, understand that we are not only talking about macrofinance, we are also talking about military-technical cooperation, but there is an understanding, mr. oleg, there is an understanding among our creditors of our problems, well, relatively speaking , we understand that these are debts that

are accumulating, they can be debts of the 19th year, somewhere we borrowed, somewhere they gave us something, somewhere for grants, somewhere loans and so on, and it comes time in the 24th year to settle. and we, let's say, in addition to the current military ones , we still need to find such, such as financial ones there is a billion 2-3-4, just give it to him, and, but we, when we say to some creditors, listen, we have a war in general, we somehow don’t have four extra billion here to give you, enter our, our our state, then what they say, we don't care about your state, give us money, or they say, well, we can wait another three or four years. no , look, in fact, the part that refers to the return of debts previously taken by ukraine, this is meant for commercial borrowings, for eurobonds that ukraine placed until the 21st, until the 22nd year, there the situation is more or less, well, better, there is

a preliminary agreement that ukraine will restructure its debts by the 27th year, that is, we were supposed to start paying 24, but houses. that was postponed to the 27th, right here the question is not about debt repayment, the question is about ukraine receiving additional funds to cover this budget deficit with which you started, and when we talk with you, do our partners understand or not understand those problems, well look, ukraine is far away, and our military men often talk about it, our scouts they very often perceive the ukrainian war as a sports competition, somewhere far away, well, you can sit in front of the tv with a cup of popcorn and watch what is happening there, and far away, i will be the devil's advocate here, you know, when

hundreds of thousands of people were killed in darfur province , blacks, the ukrainians were not too worried either, they also drank coffee. i absolutely agree with you, people are all like that, and this is the psychology of people. so, as of today, when you and i are talking about our partners, they have their personal issues come to the fore. well, look, the main issue for the americans is the problems with migration on the border with mexico, and here they are with all their politics, which has already become pre-election, we understand with you that in november... the place of elections in the united states of america, i.e. this is all, it is already being quietly involved in the pre-election campaign, we see the intensity of the current pre-election rhetoric, and that is all, and there is not only help to ukraine,

there is also help to israel, there is also help to taiwan, all this thrown into one heap, and all this becomes a subject for the pre-election itself. races, in fact, a similar situation with the european union, so that we are not even in the big picture to have any illusions, the germans have big problems there. scholz 's rating is falling very much at the moment, as of today charles michel announced that he is stepping down from the position of president of the european commission, we have a clear understanding that he is going to the elections to the european parliament, he also has his own very serious problems, that is, there are a bunch of things that are extremely far from the ukrainian war, but they are close to them, because they live by it, and also all the problems with... money for ukraine, they are connected primarily with their internal problems and with

internal contradictions, so it is necessary to clearly understand what ukraine was warned about this in a big way, and when you and i watch the press conference of the minister of finance of ukraine, who said that after the 24th year, it is still somehow the case, well, somehow optimistically , we are looking at some things, then the 25th for us in full. darkness, well, that is, it is not clear at all, and this is the truth, that is, if you look , there is another point that you really need to understand, when in the introduction to our topic you talked about the fact that we either borrow money or spend a little less, because we are switching from wine to beer, then i i just want to remind you that the 1.6 hryvnias that you and i have to borrow are used to raise social standards in ukraine. well, that is , during the war with you, this year we are twice raising the minimum wage to uah 700, and

then to uah 800 from uah 6-700, which were in the 23rd year, we are carrying out a large indexation of pensions, we have raised the living wage, that is, we live with you financially as if there is no war, we invest in ourselves those things that are extremely necessary in order to increase well-being. ukrainians, this is definitely an extremely necessary thing, but the fact that this is not a philosophy of transferring the economy to military lines, well, i don’t know, now there is a table, we have prepared there, but i want to say that welcome me, everyone, that i am not prem the prime minister of ukraine, because if i were the prime minister of ukraine, such a humane attitude towards the citizens of ukraine during the war to raise social standards, no one would have expected me to, this is obvious during the war. i remember the second world war, well i remember, i don't remember, i didn't live then, but if

we look at london, if we look at the huge estates, not just london, where the municipal property is, but the lords' estates and so on, they everyone was sown with potatoes, in the yard of her majesty the queen, her father was also sown with potatoes, people sewed for... older children into younger suits, patchwork was put on, there were no rich people, and they can’t, there is nowhere find shevchenko park in kyiv, plow, sow and sell potatoes, there are no options , war, so you are absolutely right, i want to tell you more, even in the united states of america, which has not seen war on its territory for centuries, a card system was introduced in 1943, they completely... stopped the production of civilian products at their machine-building enterprises, well, that is

, everything worked for the war, and the main thing that was done first, excuse me, i will say directly, was the complete consolidation of state finances in in one place, that is, absolutely all taxes, local and non-local, went to the state budget, well, that is, what you and i talk about from time to time, that is, look, you and i, excuse me, please, see at the moment that... . the local authorities have money left over for landscaping , for laying cobblestones, we are at war, that is , the first thing that should be done, when we transfer the economy to military rails, is to transfer absolutely all the money that is collected around the country to the central budget, which would he himself would clearly define the priorities, first of all with from the point of view of security and defense, and you and i have as of today, look, the central... budget tried to take over a part of the personal income tax

paid by our servicemen, how much was there hate, no, there will be no options without hate, listen , they will transfer, they will shout, they will not transfer, they will shout, they will, they will transfer to military rails, they will shout, they will not transfer, they will under all conditions, we finish talking with mr. oleg, the only thing i will say at the end is that the country with the most automobiles in the world , the united states america in the 43rd year of gasoline cards , not just some kind of abstraction somewhere, but the cards were for gasoline and for private and for this and for any, so mind you, this is me... i don't, i don't i vote for the transfer to military rails, but i would not, i would not give local municipalities the opportunity to change the paving stones, now, as i promised, we have a pause for 37 seconds, i will at least get up and stretch my legs, and you watch i don't know,

probably advertising, but pause. there are discounts on acvaamaris of 15% in psarynskyk, pam and oskad pharmacies. turn on well, that's when everything is as you want. click, and you are in the world of cartoons, click and around the world of cinema, then, oh, what is needed! megogo, turn on hundreds of channels, thousands of movies and sports. there are discounts on zippel, 10% at the psarynyk, vam and ochadnyk pharmacies. and good health again, 37 seconds, you know, ended like you, no wonder, after 37 seconds, and that is why we have a continuation of our program, vitaly kulyk, political scientist, director of the center for researching problems of civil, civil society, civil societies,

we will talk not only about civil ones society, about different societies, good health, mr. vitaly, thank you. that you found time for us, it is always a pleasure to do business with you, i congratulate you, well, look, we are with you and, well, i do not know about you, i guarantee about myself that i do not attend meetings of the government of the united states of america, i do not sit in therefore, in that room where the president is sitting and around him the vice president and the ministers are sitting and discussing something, i don't know, maybe you are there, but your feeling is that we are at the level of sensations now. which does not seem serious to us people, but do you think the white house will still come to an agreement with the congress, we will still unblock this aid, that is, will the president agree to be tougher on the people who push and push from the territory of mexico, from the whole of latin america and want

to live in the united states, and the united states does not let them in yet, but they need someone for... well, let's start with the fact that this is a rather difficult issue for the democrats, not just difficult, this issue is ideological, it is a kind of red lines, which were built over a long period of time, and it is so the so-called flores document, which allows not to detain children, or when a family is arrested... then the children are not with their parents in the places where migrants are staying, that is, in camps or in some filtering institutions, etc., these issues are related to legal migration, these issues are related to the right to receive refugee status, this is the same wall on the border

with mexico, if the issue of the wall with the border with mexico in the democrats and republicans can still agree. the issues are related to human rights, as well as humanitarian ones issues related to refugees , political migrants, those fleeing political persecution, children's rights, the rights of migrants who have obtained documents semi-legally, not quite legally in the united states and are working, now it also falls, is at the heart of the package about migrations. is going to do a big purge of illegal immigrants and deport them, that's all the democrats have been fighting for for 10 years, that is, many of these conquests in quotation marks, they consider part of their ideological heritage, and if biden will go to review this for rejection, then it is obvious that he is losing the liberal

part, the left-liberal and leftists, during these ... primarily due to the mobilization of the left electorate and the left-liberal, among which they will form such a horror story that trump is fascism, and accordingly the left should step on their throats, vote for... for biden, and fathers, deals with the republicans, this package anti-immigrant, he actually can to cross out any possibility for... so you answer in detail as you always do

so as for as for students professor, it is always nice, but then i, if we went to america there, i did not have it in my plans , but it's interesting, but on the other hand, they say that trump has all sorts of problems, we keep saying that there are more problems than... biden, well, except for legal ones, biden has fewer legal problems than trump, but now they say that normal, relatively speaking, republicans would be very satisfied, if trump were removed, they don't want to vote for trump at all, who, if some nikki haley appeared there, or i don't know who else they have there, then they would say, well, thank god, because well they can't help but vote for their own, that is, for trump, and... they don't like trump, they don't want to vote for trump, if there was an alternative, they would vote for the alternative, that is, it turns out that according to your, your

logic, correct in my opinion, in my point of view, regarding the democrats, they hit on the basics, on a more systemic basis than you described, i mean, america is all a country of immigrants, and when someone somewhere bans immigration, then the question arises, as you appeared ... it's like standing up to your mother and saying: my my mother is a prostitute , and i don’t know who i was born to, well, it can’t be absurd like that, but the republicans now seem to have all the lawsuits, this bullshit, trump takes it there, he continues to say some stupid things, and normal republicans are not his nuclear eyes nuclear supporters say, listen to anyone if there was another, then maybe we would vote for... him, what do you say, mr. vitaly? no, it really is, and it is recorded by most sociological services, qualitative studies show it, but on the other hand, trump is counting

on exactly this electoral core, on the trumpists, he does not care what traditional republicans or neocons think, he bets on the trumpists, he refuses, that is, he takes positively even the withdrawal from the primaries, believes that the caucuses should replace it, that is, ... the committee of the republican party, which will decide the decision to expel him is a presidential candidate, he is completely satisfied with it, that is , for trump at the moment, neither the nuclear, nor his electorate, nor the rednecks are ballast, and by and large he believes that they will not go anywhere from him anyway, he does not even wants to flirt with them, in terms of percentages, it is worth saying that this trumpian, trumpian part is growing, and even people who ... take moderate positions, such traditional republicans are not favorites in the republican party now, their influence is not

small, well, wait, wait, how then? it turns out that he is pro, he wins the nomination, there are no questions, okay, he doesn't care about the moderates, he has the majority, he wins the nomination, he becomes a presidential candidate, and what then... that is, at the first stage, the logic that you have now explained the logic of trump himself: don't spit on them, everyone is a little more than everyone else, i will get support from everyone, i will be nominated, then the whole country, then there may be problems there too, well, of course there will be, because you are absolutely right that the same republicans who are in favor of logic they will vote for trump anyway, they really can. to vote and parliamentary elections elected to congress showed that people were not ready to vote for trump's nominees, outspoken trumpists so bright and voted for democrats, that is, a voter,

a republican voted for a democrat, a governor, a canadian governor, because he believed that this candidate was more moderate , what exactly is his candidate's party, that is , there was such a phenomenon, and in this situation part of the republic, he can really lose these votes, he thinks... then he, he and so has, but it may actually be his rose-colored glasses, and these people will not vote for him, because what he's saying now, and the rhetoric and the leaks from his headquarters , indicate that he's getting more and more out of control, that the initiatives, produced by his closest entourage, are pushing the united states into an internal political conflict, that is, they are entering a certain element of civil even conflict, they are talking about the persecution of those who overturned the decision, or rather, made the decision not to recount the votes during the previous of the presidential election, those who opened criminal cases against trump or.

his entourage, these people he wants to prosecute , he wants to file criminal cases against him, and there are sources about this in the entourage of trump himself, more and more people are saying that the pro-russian lobby is increasing its influence in the entourage of trump, called the same popadopolosa, a film with his wife popadopolosa should be released on the 10th, where the state will be certified, by the way, with new stories about biden, this is also a russian trace, and this the russian version is also bright. is being pursued there, i would still like to talk to you, it is already so specific for ukrainian political technologists and for those who are interested in politics that whether you confirm it or deny it, that what made me laugh is real, already about a year ago the first beginnings this, i saw, is when the democrats in america begin to persuade the republicans to vote for trump, realizing that he will

fall for... and as a competitor to biden, he will weaken, because of the positions that you are now saying, persecution, loss in general landmarks and so on and the like, and then the democrats are cunning and say, no, no, we need to support trump, trump is cool, he is us, let's go, and there are even advertising campaigns, they say, in some places in the states, which are led by democrats and they say in your advertising ob... vote for mr. trump, it is very good, they understand that it is very bad on the contrary, and people will be dissatisfied and they will not vote for trump, is this true, what do you think? well, the united states now has a lot of such videos, really, when the democrats are outright are chasing the republicans, urging them to vote for trump, believe that trump will be such a lame duck in this race, and there is a chance

for biden to really mobilize. and beat him, but it's such a thin, thin line, because the polls show trump ahead of biden overall, except when you're talking about electoral expansion, that is , if you go into the last phase of the election campaign and you have to attract votes those who are undecided, or those who are hesitant, trump has a bigger field than biden, and that say the majority... of experts , at the moment, the trumpists work in a targeted manner and conduct a targeted campaign, advertise in certain small segments, sometimes the messages that come from the trumpists for these segments contradict each other, but since there in the united states, just like here there is such an intellectual autism, when people are self-centered, they don't hear everything that is happening behind their perception bubble, then it works, and it just ...

works for trump, so this election will not be predictable, you can't say one hundred percent, who, who will, who will win, what technologies will win, whether understatement or overstatement, i would still draw the public's attention, people who are looking at this famous list, epstein's list, now it's news number one, number two, number three, number 25 in america, there was such a billionaire who corrupted minors and invited them. some high-ranking officials, some senators, and clinton appears there and so on, and they have already poured in, and it is a lot of people, it is one and a half hundred or so people who knew that epstein in one way or another, who has already died in prison, he was imprisoned for rape there for 100 million years, but now they just published epstein's list, which includes everyone, democrats, republicans, and trump, there is clinton, and these and others, and they .

everyone has already started lawsuits against this, that is, against this list, because they say that i flew with him on his plane, but i never slept with minors and did not know at all what was in his cells there , and there are british princes and everyone in the world, in short, there is a whole story there, and everyone they say that this is not a political issue, but a media issue, that the press is showing its power, that we... only let justice bite us, and if this ebstein is such a scoundrel, then here are all those who lit up next to him, we are printing a list for you, where they met, toibstein was , by the way, at trump's in this near miami in this, that is, the residence, very often about, well , in short, a whole, a whole huge scandal, pay attention, if anyone is interested, read this, and i ...