for the european union as well, and you think that the west is aware of this, just in the form in which you talk about it, and is aware that we are warning it about this, about the growth of russian influence, and we are not warning well, because it is necessary not to warn, but to explain, it is necessary to sit down at the table and put it brick by brick, this is so, and this is so, and this is so, and this is so, to prove historical examples. as it was conventionally said with georgia or with moldova, or as it would be, as it was even in earlier times, because nothing has changed in essence from the soviet union in the russian federation, er, and this should be discussed with those who construct and implement foreign policy and defense policy in european countries, primarily european, but also with the

public that is there and that is influential , and speaking from the screen at conference events, it has an effect, but in the first months after the start of the aggression, the next thing to talk about is, i would say, our members of the verkhovna rada, leaders of our leading non-governmental organizations who have proven themselves. in countries of the european union and nato, perhaps some individual public figures, influential people, historians, other scientists, journalists, of course journalists and so on, i do not know that a ukrainian journalistic group, for example, 3.5-7 people, traveled around europe over the past year, well, maybe i didn't get this information, but exactly... this is what is needed,

the speeches of such journalists or such public figures are needed at what is called the editorial table, i.e. board meeting, uh, the editorial offices of the largest mass media information at the event have a habit once on a week to gather and discuss today's, weekly's and monthly 's problems, and so on, and at such meetings our experts... our experts, those who were at the front, who took photographs themselves, who themselves came under bombardment, can tell everything and show photos and videos and so on , that is, this work must be financed, organized, and cross-cutting, at the level of the state, at the level of the government, at the level of the ministry of foreign affairs, specifically, at the level of creative unions, public organizations, and so on and so on further, then it will be impact and then there will be a reaction.

what do you expect from 2024 in general, if we talk specifically about nato, you can think that some institutional decisions will be made at the nato washington summit, or we will again talk about the euro-atlantic integration of ukraine in the parameters defined by the president of the united states joseph biden, that the condition for ukraine to join nato is its victory over russia, period. if you ask this question to stoltenberg, he won't answer you, and not because he doesn't want to. because he doesn't know the answer, but no one knows the answer yet, and i imagine that a significant influence on the formation of this answer can, in particular, be given by the course of the election campaign in the united states of america, and now the congress has not yet started work, when it will start, we do not know how it will start, won't it start again zrayu and...

rock and won't these quarrels turn into something permanent, and every two or three weeks a new shutdown will be announced, and it will continue until november, until there are new elections. we don't know what the united states supreme court will say about the possibility ex-president trump to participate in the elections. we do not know many other such components, and it depends on how the nato summit in washington will be held, which will be the anniversary, we also do not know whether all european countries, let's imagine, all with germany, france, and so on, everyone will unanimously tell washington that serious support should be given to ukraine, and then, for example, it may happen if the pre-election campaign in the states goes normally, and if this... all countries,

european nato countries, say this, then ukraine will receive an invitation, this does not mean that it will join nato, it will not be a member of nato, but after receiving an invitation, it may be entitled to a bonus, this bonus, we remember, happened to sweden and finland when they received an invitation and have not yet become nato members, several countries, nato members provided them with their protection, their armed protection, thus they fell under the defense cap of, let's say, nato countries. i... i don't think that something like this will happen to ukraine, but in any case it will smell like this in air, and this can change the calculations or determination of the russian federation, we really need it. by the way, about the security guarantees of finland and sweden, we

talked about them a lot, i talked about them more than once, but the problem is that we do not fully understand the meaning of these guarantees, their true meaning, as i recently saw the reasoning of the western military experts who said that ... the island of gotland, the swedish island that is in the middle of the baltic sea, which allows you to control the baltic sea, is the weakest link in defense of nato, and that if russia is able to carry out some special operation against sweden precisely with the capture of gotland, then it is unlikely that nado will act in defense of sweden in the same way as it would have acted if sweden had become a member of the north atlantic alliance, i.e. a guarantee of sweden, they still do not guarantees related to nato membership. i don't even understand if sweden has one. the famous nuclear umbrella, as in other nato member countries. great britain, in my opinion, the netherlands and some other state gave commitments to finland and sweden at the time of their

agreement to their membership in nato, that they will defend the same as their own territory, that is, the created military alliance between finland. e.e. sweden, great britain and several other countries there. uh, this alliance actually, uh, lets, uh, understand to any aggressor that the entire territory of these states, including the island of gotland, the fact that the russian uh consulate is located there, has nothing to do with it , little where it is, uh, including the island of gotland is ee. territory under the protection of all possible armed forces, in particular in the same great britain has its own nuclear forces, thus, when they talk about the island of gotland, they look for some weak points, journalists, for the most part

, well, very well, or experts, very well, let them search, any hint about the possibility of weak points or some shortcomings must be taken into account and must be produced from this next actions, i.e. whether more ships will sail around totland, or whether some swedish brigade will land there and be stationed there, because this is actually its territory, and all this is possible and all this is good, just as good as we were told in 21, what the russian federation is preparing to go to war against us, and er... it actually helped our military better oppose our politicians when they did one or another thing to prepare against aggression. tell me, andrii onovych, but if we talk about other regions

of the world, how much do you fear the possibility of such a conflict zone growing, we talked about the middle east last year, by the way, today is the third month of the war in the near east. started without much prospects in the east, the end of today is the 93rd day of the war, now they are talking about korea, you be afraid that some new such large-scale military conflict may start this year, well, let's say on the korean peninsula, if kimchinin receives some technologies from russia, well, maybe not this year, but in order to start a war, timchanin must overcome anti-aircraft. the defense of south korea, to overcome it with his own, ilyushins or whatever else he still has migs left, maybe 21, some more, he cannot, for this he asks the russian federation

for its modern planes and its modern radar system, that's exactly what it's for he is now giving the kremlin and... artillery shells and possibly ballistic missiles, whether russia is able to transfer this modern weaponry, which would be about the same... as the american defense unit in south korea, a question mark, will decide , russia to do this? china does not do this, by the way, this is an important fact, eh, even if it happens, then in order for this transfer to arrive and then the training of pilots and the corresponding technical part, a couple of years should pass, although. so next year i won't i'm afraid, i don't expect it, but that doesn't mean that our

allies shouldn't think about it and shouldn't look for options to counter it, i'm more worried about the balkans, uh, because unlike, say , the middle east, where the united states the arab states and countries surrounding... israel are all interested in stopping this conflict and its growth, they are all interested in this from all sides. so, in the balkans , those who would now seriously deal with the situation with serbia, and with bosnia and herzegovina, and also with kosovo, er, such serious forces, unfortunately, no. all are switched either to the near east or to taiwan, the south. night korea, or to ukraine, who and where, the balkans remain a very vulnerable point, the germans

, who took care of the balkans recently, are also now focused on the middle east, the balkans have always been explosive, and now, when there are many conflicts and attention is diverted from this region , there may not be... capacity, but the balkan countries, on the other hand, want the european union so much, do you think that the same serbia can go to the open a conflict that will erase all prospects, economic, first of all, it is actually economically dependent on europe, who else can act as an aggressor besides belgrade in such a situation? the support of the population in serbia, joining the european union, now fluctuates to about 30%. uh, yes, yes , of course, this is the result of work. the current government and the current, so to speak, the current government

of serbia, and not necessarily from the point of view of serbia , it is not necessary to set fire to it yourself, you can do it with the hands of idiots from the republika srpska, you can do it with the hands of fools from kosovo was captured yesterday or the day before yesterday on the border with serbia. a car with two kosovars who were carrying an incredible arsenal, in my opinion a dozen and a half revolvers, pistols, submachine guns, grenades and so on and so on, two or three such delights, and the question immediately arises, what is this , who is trying to find where these evil, bad forces are, where they are, a conflict ignites, which supposedly no one ignited, everything explodes at once, i.e.... this is what i am afraid of, why it was necessary yesterday for the minister of defense of serbia

to say that the country should renew conscription, conscript military service, that it had been absent for 13 years, and during that time, 13, as he said, generations, well, not actually generations, of young people, they don't know how to take from... what happened that in kosovo from "an army of 1000 people has appeared, is it possible that neighboring croatia has nuclear weapons, no, nothing, but it's starting, it's going on, everything is very dangerous. thank you, mr. andrii, andriy vesolovskyi, diplomat, extraordinary ambassador of ukraine, advisor to the director of the national institute of strategic studies, on our broadcast, we will be taking a break for literally a few seconds, do not switch. there are

10% discounts on psyllium in pharmacies, plantains for you and ushchad ogo , i went for a walk with water here, ordinary water, don't drink enough reo i'm saving myself reo, you're ready, my dear, i'm ready , i took reo reo - water for special people. in pharmacies, plantain, bam and savings. we continue the political club on the spresso tv channel, with you is vitaliy portnikov, our guest is ivan stupak, a military expert, an employee of the sbu in 2014-15, he is in contact with you, i congratulate us, mr. ivan, congratulations, congratulations, thank you very much for the invitation. so, let's try to understand how western countries are now

ready for some tougher ones, i would say. strikes on, at least economic political strikes on the russian federation , in the event that the escalation continues, i ask this against the background of the story of the russian missile that crossed the airspace of poland, and again we saw that everything possible would be done , in order to soften the results of this incident, just like the previous times when the wreckage of a russian missile was suddenly found on the territory of the same poland, it turned out that the military simply did not want to focus on it. when the rockets hit the the airspace of romania, all the time the countries of central europe are trying to pretend that this does not concern them, although they are already starting to say in poland that this could be a russian provocation, well, if provocation, we are so afraid of provocation, then what next? yes, you say everything correctly, but by and large the western countries do not have

options for responding in a big way, well, what can they do, either great... concern, or the fifth fifth article, well the activation of the fifth article , well, a war with russia, no one will go for it, of course, it is only she was also activated once in her life, she is not a working article, of course it is easier for them to pretend that nothing happened, but personally, i am at least pleased with the position of certain countries that see this whole threat, but i am not talking about poland now, about the balti countries, they have seen it for a long time, they have understood it for a long time, so... germany is affected by the position of boris pistorius, at least officially, as he declares that we need to arm ourselves, we need to invest even more money in arms in order to to be ready for any military action, well theoretical, practical, on the horizon of 20-30. i would really like to see even more sanctions against the russian federation, not just impose sanctions for the sake of sanctions, namely

repeated and controlled sanctions, if there is a ban on the movement of certain goods, then there should be ... there should be control and a strong response to violations of the imposed restrictions , we would like to see this, of course, if we talk about our own response to the situation when it comes to some threat of russian actions against our country, we recently saw how the company a luxembourg company related to well-known russian oligarchs mykhailo fridman and petro avin filed a lawsuit against ukraine. accuses ukraine of the illegal nationalization of the former alfa bank of ukraine, which belonged to these two entrepreneurs, in principle it is obvious that if the situation in the world had not changed now, they would hardly have filed such a lawsuit and would frankly want to compromise, not just to compromise ukraine, but

get a billion dollars from us, we remember that friedman once offered a billion dollars if it will be removed and the sum of dollars will be given to ukraine. here is such a change of priorities, but on the other hand, alfa bank worked, many of our compatriots worked in this bank and were very respected people, no one saw any threat in the fact that russian capital controls a huge sector of the ukrainian financial market, well, absolutely true, mr. aavin , he is about mykhailo flidman, i’m sorry, he offered a billion us dollars in ukraine, but the ukrainian authorities refused, maybe an insult worked as an option, you didn’t take a billion from me, because you took me away, they took my asset, i will take yours, yes, yes , i will try to return it, maybe, maybe, i guess, maybe offended your colleague mykhailo tkach, who you spoke with him in london, and mr. friedman ran from him, i think, for two or three quarters, yes, very, very quickly,

maybe this is his offense, in the grand scheme of things, well, there is a court, okay, let us decide through the court who is right, who is wrong, well... and let there be such a story, but we should be prepared that it is possible that other oligarchs, some russian ones, will try to get something back, well as they see fit in ukraine, and perhaps we should expect such lawsuits, that is, i would prepare in a way that would form a very good base, because we have to respond, and i would form a very good team of state lawyers who will defend ukraine not for all the money in the world, of course , in principle... how much does the very participation of such figures as friedman in the ukrainian market affect our security, not only financial, but the very story of kyiv... well, we understand that if there are such owners, then yes or else the influence and infiltration in the company is much greater simpler than it seems to us, well

, look, here and there you can argue, discuss , look, they are about business, they are about money, it is important for them that the asset generates cash, withdraws cash, and in such different ways, directly, indirectly, abroad to their accounts and this money is to live on, right away the story is in the management... down at the lower level it is clear that mykhailo fridman does not have all the passwords personally on a flash drive from i don’t know all the servers or some data centers in kyivstar, it was a job as a security service says several people inside the company who we don't know under what conditions this access was granted, or this access was stolen from them, or they independently granted access to the russians, and the russians were there, at least, if my memory serves me correctly, for several months. visited and destroyed a really large infrastructure, i mean the virtual infrastructure of kyivstar. kyivstar, by the way, denies that they were there so much, this is also an interesting story, the sbu

talks about it, kyivstar says, no, it didn’t happen, well, don’t forget, it ’s about business, kyiv old man yes sorry for slang, he smoked for a lot of money, when he had such a blackout, when he was not working, don't forget that some of the customers could get lost on the way back. and this is losses, losses, losses, plus recovery, if they admit that for a long time there was a russian spy or russian espionage in their networks, then this will hit the company even more, it will lose even more trust, state companies will refuse its services , then i think that it is easier for them to deny and say to choose everything, in principle, as big as it can be the infiltration of russian agents in some sensitive sector of the ukrainian economy, how is this to be understood? it can, it can happen right now and during our conversation with you, do not forget that the russians are actively working, well , kompromat does not work much anymore, kompromat, you will not surprise anyone, we have already seen neuro,

neural networks, you can do anything you want to generate, money is actively working, you know, there is such a thesis, you cannot solve the problem, offer money, it is not solved, offer even more, and you can find, in principle, a person who needs a large amount of money in a specific period of time, you can do x2, multiply it by the russians... there is no money, and a person will cooperate if we talk about what may happen in the near future on the front line, but if we turn to military topics , in principle, it can be considered that one of the parties, either we or the russians, have the opportunity to break through the line of confrontation, which actually formed in november 2022, not even 2023, so look, and i see, my personal opinion , that by march the russians will keep the initiative , most likely, until the month of march, such a period, the periodicity of this war, we already see,

you remember, on may 25 the russian offensive ended, russian initiatives, the ukrainian offensive began, unfortunately, it ended in october, then again the russians came to this machine and started working , it seems to me that they will try to break through until march, plus there are gossips about... the attack on kharkiv, well, these are gossips, really, but about the kharkiv region, there really are there is a russian group, there is a tank group the army, as well as people who are close to that territory, say that they were not so badly damaged in the battles, for avdiivka or in other directions, that is, theoretically, they retain combat capability and can try to break through kupin skleman, but this is as far as we know that our command is digging several fortification lines in the north as well. and in the south, i really hope that in the east, they already have , even if they manage to break through, the first lines of defense, then there are the second, third, fourth,

which will be completed already, as for us, i think we have to wait, rather, big the prospect is the kherson region, but again, it depends on many, many factors, it all depends, so far our advantage is our dominance precisely in the air and precisely thanks to drones, russian aviation is present there now. very, very minimal after the loss of five boards literally in 48 hours last year, if in such a situation, we are at a stalemate and the russians will take the initiative, we will wait until march for opportunities, how this can affect western aid, i i myself would say not on the amount, on the nature of the help, because there is the difference between defensive e orders, so to speak, and those weapons that are used precisely in the offensive, well, let's see what's interesting, interesting in general, there is such

a number of unfulfilled. military contracts around the world, that is, there are orders, there are overpayments , but the goods have not yet been delivered, because it may take 2-3 years to manufacture certain weapons, this figure is about 700 billion us dollars, that is, for 700 billion dollars, and weapons are contracted around the world, in different countries, on different continents, but it is not done, conceptually a lot of weapons are being manufactured and planned, but somehow for ukraine at this stage it is not... it is clear, the united states is the big driver and indicator that other countries will follow, if the united states does not they agree on aid, or it will be an order of magnitude less, then it is possible that such aid will be less from the countries of western europe , if the aid is serious, as was announced, then it will be an example to follow, and okay, the americans hold such a clearing, it must be done somehow also this bar to catch up, but it's not that i didn't really

like the american one. paid attention, they are not at the front now, they are not, simply not, because there is such information that their armor is extremely weak and extremely vulnerable to drops from drones, so they are hidden somewhere in warehouses and not released to the combat line, because they are afraid that they will immediately destroyed, that is, there are many, many problems, but for now, once again, conceptually, ukraine, it is our military that says they hold the front where there are no shells of ours. come on, the number of russians are now firing 10,000 shells at day, ukraine - 200 projectiles, where the number of projectiles is held precisely with the help of fpv drones, precisely fpv drones, they really make the situation simple, they break the situation, they do not allow the russians to speed up, and this is the last thing i will say, i am constantly monitoring the losses of the russians, and our as well as losses, as much as possible, of course, damaged and destroyed equipment, and every day ukrainians

destroy a large number precisely with the help of drones. well, about a dozen loaves, that is, it is not a loaf of bread, but precisely these oases, yes, these are oases of loaves, various atvs, various, russian pickups that are used for the provision of the russian army, for the movement of provisions, a small amount of ammunition, people, well, the russian army, that is, there is an active destruction there, but tell me, do you believe in the possibility that the europeans are able to replace the americans, if we say... the united states will refuse military aid to ukraine, well, let's say there, after the victory of donald trump, if this victory will be. and honestly, i do not believe, i do not believe, i will explain why there are many europeans. what is needed is some single country that will take responsibility, which will be a burden, will drag , i apologize, will drag everyone else, because you yourself know, when there is a large team and everyone is on his own, then it is difficult to organize, but if there is a leader , formal, informal, that's how it is...

execution there was boris johnson, no matter what he was called, but he really was a driver, yes , he had his own problems in the uk, but he traveled around the european union, met, pedaled, sorry, our question, now there is no such person on the european continent. well, myself the military-industrial complex of europe, it is capable of producing a large number of weapons. in theory, he is capable, but he needs to be constantly adjusted. i had union experience. with the europeans about the matter in the civil sphere, ordering spare parts for large-scale production, they were in such a hurry, they were in such a hurry, it's not that it doesn't matter, i have a day off, i have finished my working day, and i don't have time, i have lunch, and it's the italians, it 's the germans, you write to them on monday, they answer you on thursday at best, even money didn't decide, i.e. you need a person who will stand over them and

constantly... make these bats sweat, to put it figuratively, and make them work. in another way, unfortunately, i do not see how they can work quickly. that is , in theory, maybe, maybe there is potential, but unfortunately, people. in your opinion, how did the situation with such a difference in the number of shells in the russian and ukrainian armies develop? we cannot advance. we can only restrain the russians somewhere, everywhere, everywhere we are forced to save ammunition. artillery works as minimally as possible, well listen 200 shells now to ukraine, the russians have 10,000, although there were 700 a few weeks ago, that is, they increased by 3,00 thanks to the supply from north korea and apparently from iran, but once again these are such conditional figures, but in in any case , five times more than ukraine fires, that is, we cannot advance, we can keep the russians somewhere at a distance, repulse them

and... so are local assaults, but for advancement.