everyone will be with us, we will have political scientists in the studio, viktor boberenko, taras zagorodniy and vitaly kulyk, wait, don't switch, we will be with you. mafia rebellion in ecuador, what is happening there, how can it affect ukraine? let's analyze together in today's edition of the bbc, i'm olga polomaryuk. capturing a tv channel during a live broadcast. riots in prisons and chaos throughout the country. ecuador was covered by a wave of violence. the president declared a state of emergency , neighboring countries are preparing for provocation. what's next? a wave of riots seized ecuador. this is a country in latin america in which the drug business is thriving. and crime has increased dramatically in recent years.

these are mainly showdowns between drug cartels, well , to understand the whole essence of the situation, you need to remember where it all started: last year during the election campaign , a candidate for the presidency of ecuador was killed, he was a fighter against the mafia and los cheneros were suspected of his death. who are they? los cheneros is a powerful mafia group known for its serious and brutal crimes. this is drug trafficking, racketeering, murders. the leader of the gang and this man is adolfo macias vil'. mar nicknamed fito. he spent almost 12 years in an ecuadorian prison and managed a gang from prison. it was fito who was considered the mastermind behind the assassination of the then presidential candidate. the young and ambitious politician daniel noboa became the leader of ecuador vitak. he is only 36 and he has focused his presidential activities in particular on the fight against criminal gangs. and by the way, nobo condemned the russian invasion of ukraine and met with... with volodymyr

zelensky during the inauguration of the president argentina. well, yes, despite the focused attention to the fight against banditry. the day before , something happened in ecuador that both politicians and law enforcement officers were so afraid of. the loschoneros leader escaped from prison. chaos began in ukraine. president nobo declared a state of emergency. in response, the ecuadorian mafia staged skirmishes for unrest throughout the country. gangsters from the drug cartels seized the tv channel live . took several police officers hostage and rioted in prisons. bandits began to attack the police and military, cars were set on fire. the president stated that the country is in a state of internal armed conflict. bbc correspondent ionivs reports from sao paulo. a moment of absolute horror that was broadcast live on television. armed men with balaclavas on their faces, with weapons in their hands and objects that look like explosives. broke into

the set of a citizen tv channel in ecuador live. this came a day after the country's new president, daniel noboa, declared a state of emergency. ecuador rocked by a series of attacks after the escape of influential gang leader jose adolfo macias from prison. the president ordered the military and police to take control of the prisons to stop the violence. but since then, only robbery. intensified, explosions on the streets, police officers stop and search citizens, where someone is kidnapped. real terror spread on the streets of ecuador. i hope that this state of emergency will produce results, positive results for the public and not for criminals. we live in constant fear, because every day, when we go out.

to work, we don't know if we'll make it back or if we'll make it home safe. suspects in the attack on the tv channel have been detained, but ecuador is still in a state of heightened security, so fear reigns among citizens. president daniel naboa also announced that the country is now in a state of internal armed conflict. certainly strong words from the president, who has ordered the police and military to do everything possible to stop the surge of violence that has spread in ecuador these days. but actually. the problem is much broader. violence in ecuador is already on the rise a few years. since the beginning of the covid-19 pandemic in 2020, gangs operating from prisons have taken advantage of the weakness of the state at that time. drug cartels gaining influence in ecuador, as well as a high level of unemployment, contributed to the increase in violence. now this is the number one issue for the country. and there's no doubt that fear still reigns on the streets, especially in guayaquil, which has had the highest homicide rate in the country over the past year. so what is happening in the country now?

yurii polyukhovych, ambassador extraordinary and plenipotentiary of ukraine to peru, colombia and ecuador joins the ether. mr. yuri, congratulations, how are you now? the situation with the security of ukrainian citizens in ecuador, is there any information about possible victims among ukrainians? well, as of now, the embassy has not received applications from ukrainian citizens, and for the information of the listeners, there are 120 people who are on the consular register, we expect much more of them, but they are not on the register, but those who are on the register are 120 people. thank god, we haven't received any messages so far, we are in... direct contact all the time with our honorary consuls in goyaquil and in quito, we have two honorary consuls who are constantly in touch with us and we will monitor the situation in the country. ugh, yes, i just wanted to ask you if the ukrainians have applied, but you have already answered this question, but what is the position

of ukraine regarding the situation in ecuador? well, ecuador is a friendly country to us, and we are currently watching the events, as i said, we have 120 citizens. who are on the consular register, but, as i have already mentioned, there was no appeal, but of course that we, as the embassy provided appropriate recommendations on how to behave in a similar situation, the embassy hotline is open 24 hours a day for the appeals of our citizens, and our consuls and honorary consuls in ecuador and our secretary for consular affairs at our embassy, ​​who are located in limiva, are constantly on call "link" we also monitor and are constantly in touch with the ministry of foreign affairs of ecuador. ugh. you are the ambassador of ukraine in three countries of south america, yes. so, in your opinion, can the situation in ecuador develop into wider riots, or is there

before that some, well, do you see it? well, you can draw a parallel with el salvador, a latin american country located in... central america, where in 2015 there was a similar situation, when the new young president buquel came to power and started a merciless war with the drug cartels, with mar salvatrucha and others organized criminal groups. the result was a tenfold decrease in criminal offenses. statistics show that in 2015 there were 107 murders per 100,000 population, and that therefore seven and seven. eight murders per 1,000 population , that is, crimes have decreased tenfold, because society's demand for security is the primary task that the government of this country must fulfill, therefore a similar situation is observed in ecuador, also a young president, also active, ambitious, and who

announced the war against drug cartels and various criminal groups, but can such a young president, he is only 36, as we said... will he be able to regulate this situation, what are the scenarios for regulating the conflict in ecuador in your opinion? now what we can say is that he has huge public support, without public support no reforms, no changes can be implemented in any country, that is why all troops, all special services, all law enforcement agencies are fully mobilized and the huge support of president nobog can be seen in social networks and ... the media, and of course people who are fed up with these constant street-level and serious -level crimes, for example, as you mentioned, the assassination of one of the presidential candidates last year, it certainly worries everyone, and therefore president nobo, his government decided

to put an end to it. thank you, mr. yuriy, for sharing the information, it is very important to know, to have updates, what is happening now, yes yuriy bolyukhovich. ambassador extraordinary and plenipotentiary of ukraine to peru, colombia and ecuador. if you want to know more about the causes of the current outbreak of violence in ecuador, you should read the material of colleagues from bbc mondo on our website. mafia rebellion in ecuador three key reasons. so what can escalate the conflict in ecuador, can the situation with security in that country to influence ukraine's attempts to improve. work with the countries of the global south, we are talking about it together with my colleague george erman, we are in touch, george, congratulations, how what is happening in ecuador these days is perceived from the point of view of ukraine, not only as an internal crisis , as well as regional

aggravation, that's how it is, congratulations, well, first of all, we can say that there is a direct impact on the political or economic support of ukraine, for example, from the countries of the west. usa, i think that this crisis will not have, but the only thing that can we can now say that the attention of the snakes has switched for a while to ecuador, to the events that are happening there, and may... thus overshadow certain events that are happening in ukraine, but this is also temporary, the cooperation of ukraine and the countries of the global south, this situation cannot bring, but it can be said that since such events had already taken place earlier in other latin american countries, for example, in central america, the activation of criminal gangs took place and after that the activation of migration flows to the north took place, that is... of the united states of america , illegal migration, that is, it is in the western

hemisphere that the security situation is deteriorating due to the activation of gangs, increasing if the migration crisis on the mexican-american border, because people who do not want to live in such safe conditions, do not want to live under rampant of so many gangs, they think about how to move to more stable states, this can divert attention, for example, from ukraine, regarding cooperation without... directly with the countries of the global south and latin america can honestly say that last year was the most active in the last decade in cooperation with latin america, the visit of the president of ukraine took place in december for the visit of the president of argentina. just today, the minister of foreign affairs dmytro kuleba announced the development of a strategy for relations with the countries of latin america. literally in a year it was formed, well, now ukraine is represented in the region by very

experienced ambassadors, such a framework for the restoration of cooperation with this region was formed, since after the 14th year, for some time, attention to of this region has decreased due to economic reasons, due to the consequences of russian aggression against ukraine, and now there is an intensification of relations with this region, and in addition to strategy. development of relations with latin america, activation is taking place at the bilateral level with a number of latin american countries, as was shown, for example, by the visit of volodymyr zelenskyi, where he met with the president of ecuador, and with the president of paraguay, uruguay, and so on, that is, we can say that a framework has been created, plus non-governmental organizations are involved in this process organizations, for example, in latin america itself there is such an organization as glanta ukrania, which... formed a circle of such cultural figures who support ukraine in its

fight against russian aggression, there are organizations in ukraine itself such as ukrainian resilients, transatlantic dialogue, which establish communication between latin american experts, journalists, then ukraine, the ukrainian prism center, which establishes cooperation with latin american political scientists, and all this has literally happened over the last year, i believe that... in this way, such a a real framework for the restoration of cooperation with latin america, and the crisis in ecuador will not prevent this cooperation from developing, the main thing is that there should be continued attention of the state to this process, an increase in resources, the creation of new embassies, as the deputy minister of foreign affairs called for earlier, andriy melnyk, who is now the ambassador to brazil, and then this work will give results. yes, well, colleague, i still want to ask you, yes , a new president is in power in ecuador, he has only been in office for

a month and a half and is quite young, in your opinion, whether to his efforts to settle the situation with the mafia and the drug trade, well, this is a young president, but you can say that he is the son of his father, that is, his father ran several times as president of ecuador, and that is... this family has a political, political past certain, that is , there are certain political connections, political experience, and that is, he is not really a novice in politics, one might say so, and there are certain connections with both the united states and other states that are interested in security. colleague, thank you, georgy erman was on our air. well, that's all today, we'll see each other tomorrow, as always at 20. good luck and take care!

greetings, friends, the verdict program is being broadcast live on the espresso tv channel. my name is serhii rudenko. in the second part of our program, see. the case of bezugola, the leadership of the verkhovna rada blocks the dismissal of the scandalous deputy. national security committee. what will the new mobilization legislation be? the government bill can be voted on in the first reading tomorrow. corruption in the ministry of defense. a week of landings, arrests and scandals. what fuses are not enough to stop stealing in the army. friends, in addition to television, we

also work on facebook and youtube. if you watch us now there. please like this video to trend on youtube and facebook and subscribe to our pages on these platforms. in addition, we conduct surveys throughout our program. we ask you today whether north korea will go to war against south korea. yes, no , please vote on youtube with the two buttons that are appropriate, or leave your comment below this video. if you're watching us on tv , if you think that... that north korea is going to attack south korea, then please vote on 0800 211 381, not 0800 211-382. all calls to these numbers are free, call, at the end of the program we will sum up the results of this vote. i would like to introduce the guests of today's studio, they are

political experts. viktor boberenko, expert of the bureau of analysis and policy. mr. viktor, i congratulate you. vitaly kulyk, director of the center for researching civil society problems, mr. vitaly, good evening, and taras zahorodniy, political technologist, managing partner of the national anti-crisis group, mr. taras, congratulations, thank you for joining our broadcast today. good evening. let's start with a blis poll as we ask our viewers and viewers what they think. will north korea go to war against south korea, it is true, in the comments under youtube, our viewers write: what do we care about north south korea, although north korean ballistic missiles fall on the territory of the ukrainian state and north korea in general thus already participating in the russian-ukrainian war. let's very briefly share

your thoughts on whether this war will be in north korea and south korea, whether this will be part of the big e. world war iii, because we're actually seeing three wars now, it's russian-ukrainian in the middle east, and there are north korean, south korean beginnings. mr. viktor, let's start with you. er, it probably won't be, er, why? because if, say, uh, kimchin was going to attack south korea, he wouldn't handed over 1.5 million shells to the russian side, and would not have handed them any more. ballistic missiles, well, on the eve of war, when they themselves need them, however, why i allow a small possibility is that it is possible, as a rule, as nidsha wrote, when you look into the abyss, the abyss looks into us, and two countries can screw themselves up so much, but from now

on north korea is working for putin, that is , it is doing everything in order to... i a monkey with a grenade and to be afraid of you, then actually they can screw themselves up, screw things up, some get off something, others and bluff their way to war. thank you, mr. viktor, mr. vitaly, well, as a person who has been to both north and south korea, i can say to myself that at the moment i have no...what, let's say, confidence that kim the younger one will not start a local provocation, which can take the form of exacerbations. wars, as it happened last time in the 50s, will not take place there, but the fact that they are ready for a local conflict, to the maximum

aggravation, it is similar to that, although in the relations of the south. the north koreans are shelling the same islands they are shelling now, and then there were casualties among the military and civilians, and this led to the breakdown of a number of agreements between north and south korea, but i would like to remind you that kim jr. is copying his grandfather kimersen in everything, and under kimersen they were precisely these provocations. let me remind you that after the end of the korean war in 1968... carried out the so-called raid on the blue house, this is the president's house in seoul in 1968 after the end, with taking hostages, shooting across seoul in populated areas. and so on. the north koreans have repeatedly kidnapped japanese citizens from oyster beds to train their spies. that is, the grandfather was ready for provocations, for symmetrical

answers. and it seems to me that a grandson who copies his grandfather in everything from appearance to foreign policy style can take radical steps. it is a radical provocation, but for this he needs a reprisal from abandonment, because 98% of all foreign economic transactions of north korea. they fight back through china, accordingly, if china agrees, then this provocation will take place, if china is not ready for it, then everything will end with another request to provide food aid, as it also happened in the history of relations. thank you, mr. vitaly, mr. taras, well, look, first of all, i added another conflict in the ide, which i often forget about now, it is the houthis who are actually destroying international logistics now, it is actually a proxy of iran. therefore, not only israel, and not only ukraine, but all of them , we should take this into account, it has a huge impact on world trade, simply

not everyone feels it. further, i believe that there is a high probability that there will still be a local conflict, i would not underestimate north korea again, the fact that they transferred missiles and so on, i do not mean anything, because we do not know what takes place in north korea. the following may have happened in north korea: russia could transfer technology and money, china could provide equipment, and we don't know, maybe in north korea there are already 5,000 people plowing in factories for food cards, as was the case in the soviet union, so i would did not overestimate situation, especially since my country is very closed, i would not consider north korea as a separate entity here. yes, they are not completely under the control of beijing, but they are more of a proxy for beijing, because there is a great dependence, as mr. kulyk emphasized, on

china's economic relations with china, and china is now pursuing a strategy of creating a number of such conflicts in order to disperse forces, in the first place of the united states of america and the west, in order to... create a favorable situation for future, future returns to taiwan. i do not i rule out that the next point could be the philippines. both countries, the philippines, and south korea have almost indirect mutual assistance agreements with the united states of america. and, there is a contingent of the united states of america in south korea, so more have been created. one point in a hot spot, especially in asia, in order to shake the confidence in the first place in the united states of america in this region, i consider

highly probable, and here i will answer our viewers who ask what north korea is for, there is a direct connection connection, we must understand first of all, south korea and japan also provide aid to ukraine, i am sure... that there is military cooperation, this means that the beginning of a war between north korea and south korea, aid can be reduced quite significantly, this is the first, second, if such a war already begins conflict, this means that the ability of the united states to help ukraine is also reduced, why, because we must understand a simple thing that unlike south korea, japan, the philippines. the united states of america has specific obligations underpinned by treaties,

the united states of america has no obligations to ukraine under the signed treaties, and we must clearly understand this and soberly assess the situation. thank you, mr. taras, let's return to internal ukrainian topics and internal ukrainian issues on january 10 verkhovna on the 11th. rather, in january , the verkhovna rada of ukraine will consider the draft law on mobilization in the first reading, it is known that there are five draft laws, one of them government, four alternative, but let's talk, gentlemen, about how it will all happen in the context of today's day, because today there were several demonstrative episodes that testify to the fact that the government. when she talks about justice and the fact that mobilization should be fair, that society should be fair, it should be fair to other participants

of the flight first of all. of the process, including ukrainians, the first episode concerns the resolution on the dismissal of mariyana bezugla from the post of chairperson, deputy chairperson of the parliamentary committee on national security and defense, today they tried to raise questions in the verkhovna rada about the resignation of bezuglai from the post of deputy , nothing came of it, because ruslan stefanchuk, the chairman of the verkhovna rada of ukraine, simply took over and... closed the meeting after the podium was blocked by representatives of european solidarity, who demanded the resignation of mariana bezuglai from the post of deputy speaker of the parliamentary committee, let's see how it went.

law, law, law, law, law, law, this has not happened in the verkhovna rada for a long time, blocking the tribune, shame and, well, such an irritating question, mariana bezugla and ruslan stefanchuk nevertheless, he did everything to ensure that marijana bezugla was not removed from the position of deputy head of the parliamentary committee, bezugla wrote on her facebook for the truth and was burned at the stake. mr. viktor, how do you assess this whole story, because this, well, it is a kind of prologue to tomorrow's big discussion, because tomorrow will probably be even hotter regarding the law on mobilization. well, yes, maryana didn't tell, for what truth she is ready to die, they are ready to burn her, that really, yes they burned her, and that's a confirmation. somatic

the fact that when something happens once as a tragedy, then as a comedy, her words can be regarded as such, and you know, when i am here for the second time, i heard from you today, and the second time i would have smiled, yes, smiled, because it is considered, well, i think that it cannot be considered differently, but what is indicative, indicative, is that it was not passed by the arahamia and the majority did not pass theirs, although, er, even the servants of the people understand that maryana played a game, and mary she carries someone else's, carries a heresy, and in general, this guy didn't give us a plan, so get rid of him, well, there is in general, absolute heresy, because they cannot, well, our military cannot share plans in an environment where these plans will immediately

become known to... , did not pass to maryana. we understand that the verkhovna rada is governed by the president's office, it is not an institution, with all the details that flow from it, although it is not known why, because maryana is now taking favors and personally from zelenskyi's rating, because there are very... few people in the country , who do not consider bezula insane, well, that's all, sir vitaliy, does this story with an angle do not indicate that the servants of the people are not so inclined to compromise, because in principle, what was the point of dismissing mariana from the position of deputy head of the parliamentary committee, but keeping her in the parliamentary committee even in

such a way to demonstrate that they... can play a big political game for a long time, because it turns out that, well, they say again that we are a mono-power, a mono-majority, and again all the parliamentary forces just crash against this wall, not misunderstanding, and then no more about any compromise or about there is simply no common conversation , well, first of all, let's look at the latest statements, but just a few minutes ago , information appeared that a meeting of the servants of the people faction... decided to send the law on the draft law on mobilization for revision, this means that it will not be considered tomorrow. therefore, the question arises, why remove bezula, if there is still a lag of time, when you can use her criticism and her position to inflict image losses, the ministry of defense or the general staff of the personally industrious, so that is, still bezula. had

complete a certain amount of tasks.