er, north korea also has a new push with russia. russia, having from them, receiving, er, shells, receiving weapons, which north korea was simply accumulating, because they are preparing for war, they are really living in preparation for war. now we are talking about missiles , russia is fueling them with technology , that is, this is a very serious concern, because in fact, er,... now the un security council has just ended and the representative of south korea was speaking there, it is very clear what ukraine is now for north korea, it is test site, use and and tests of its ballistic missiles, which can carry nuclear warheads, in order to then use them against south korea. and between the test site or

launch centers of north korea and the large port in south korea, exactly corresponds, well , according to him, to the distance at which one of the missiles that aimed at kharkiv flew, which had a distance of more than 460 km, well, we do not hear this from our people, we have some kind of simple message that we are still investigating, because the missile does not look like... there is an iskander, and the south koreans have already declared, i i think that these are intelligence data, and they used them at the un security council meeting, that such a missile, they already see it as a threat to a real war against south korea, this is firstly, and secondly, north korea also launches, many launches over japan, so i think china is not happy, because china would like to control the situation, here it is... well, it's getting out of control,

so it takes the situation to a new dimension. ukraine is not only the object of the russian attack, not only the country that is the only one that has now entered, well, it is forced to defend itself against the attack nato, the european union, closes this eastern flank, but also ukraine, as well as for these countries, which are called well. sponsors of terrorism, but what kind of terrorism is this, it is no longer terrorism, it can be considered, i believe that in fact north korea entered the war on the side of russia against ukraine, it is clear, and it is clear that the usa now has to look at its support of ukraine in terms of missiles. earlier , they may have feared that north korea would take such a step and test its ballistic missiles through russia. on this

polygons, why is it important? because, well, in real combat conditions, to get the technical parameters of use, it brings closer the possibility of using the attack , specialists, experts will tell you how important it is, and that is why the war is approaching them very quickly, they understand it, besides there is iran, which is also is testing its systems through supplies to russia and also threatens in the middle east, that is, the war has definitely... gone beyond the territory of ukraine, until it is recognized, somehow they are telling it all there, nothing like that, i claim that this conflict will only be global, it will gain momentum. to our great regret, the beginning took place in the european part. at first, georgia was under attack, then it continued, they did not react, then crimea could not fully react, then a large-scale invasion followed, and then the war.

it will definitely spill over and escalate even more, if, well, i think that it is still possible, it is still possible to stop it at the root here in ukraine, another year or two and that’s it, this war will be of a completely different nature, at least a regional war, but where this is a regional war, in the south it is difficult to say whether it will be developed in asia or elsewhere, but we can see before our eyes how the region is developing. conflict in this part of the world. while inspecting north korean military factories, north korean leader kim jong-un made several threatening statements to south korea, including assurances that he would turn it into ashes in the event of a confrontation, to quote kim jong-un. if south korea tries to use armed forces against our country, or threatens our sovereignty and security.

if there is such a chance, then we will without a doubt we will use the entire arsenal of means and forces to completely destroy south korea, we have such will, strength and ability, we will definitely continue. let's expand and strengthen them , mr. valery, we are not only talking about south korea, we are also talking about japan, because north korea also allowed itself to launch missiles towards japan during tests, which fell somewhere into the sea there, and the question in the fact that obviously russia considers north korea as another country in terms of instability. regions, because there is the middle east, there is ukraine, there is north korea, there is south korea, japan, and it is obvious, it is obvious that russia is still considering china as an option there, and how will relations with those

territories that china wants to regain, what do you think, you are talking about , that... there is a year or two to stop it all, what needs to be done to stop this flywheel of a big war now, because it is made up of small puzzles, to stop it, what should countries do? the position of the un is clear, the insecurity of nato is clear, it is clear that there is an election campaign in the united states of america, it is clear that great britain and germany have a lot of weapons and a desire to help ukraine first, who else can contribute to stopping this axis that is simply spinning the flywheel of the third world? this requires

a very radical decision, which, i don't know in what framework it is taken, is fought without the un, it is completely ineffective. and it is clear that there is russia and china, which has the veto, i am not sure that nato will be enough for this, even ramstein, about where it unites some countries in asia and even from africa, well, some format is needed in order to make a cardinal decision of joint actions, even in conditions when china and india do not want to do it, as countries that can to really guarantee such security, one must act decisively. the concept of building up the defense of air defense systems there gradually, you know that the americans have placed control systems for north korean missile launches in south korea, well, this is one of the security options, but these are really

real options when the americans know that launches, well, they know immediately that the launch is happening, because actually what the koreans want... korea to reach the territory of the united states, that is , then they think that it is theirs, well, he is a dictator, but with great ambitions, and he sees the story that democracies are afraid of threats, this is true until democracies begin to understand that failure to respond to threats endangers them even more, so if a radical amendment is made this year to the fact that... there must be, in addition to defensive means, to prepare offensive actions , or those who can show the possibility of an offensive , then it can cool these heads that putin, except for the features, they are the same, they operate in roughly the same paradigm, they see the west as weak

and that they can dictate their terms, raising the escalation, but they are different from the countries the west has a weak economy, and they have now accumulated weapons, but they understand very well that in an economic confrontation they will lose, that is, he can strike, but he will not be able to win the war, he also understands this, so they play on such a border, we will threaten, provoke , attack, but no one will dare to oppose us, if from the countries of the west, i mean the usa, and japan, and south korea, i.e. australia, and actually also the nato countries, if they do not change. .. strategy, that is conditional deterrence, then it will encourage such countries that are not controlled by the international system, absolutely, to encourage them to joint actions and coordination of efforts, this must be understood, that is why

they have already made so many mistakes that these countries , why are they escalating the situation like that, they they see what mistakes, that is, they give rockets, they give them gradually. and there is no reaction from the west, even for ukraine, which has every right to the atakamsy, several hundred, german ones to taurus, and none, that's all, that is, the only way out. a change in strategy in the war against russia, uh, the involvement of a completely different approach this year, an offensive position, well, here ukraine will participate, we have the resources for this, strikes on the territory of the aggressor, strikes on logistics, close your eyes now to these forget all the blah blah blah about the escalation, that is, everything has already happened, all of you missed it is necessary to save the consequences now, giving ukraine the opportunity to give wigs

to putin, then he will stop against the south, there is no other way now, if only he allows weakness in europe, there will be a blow, and china, by the way, should have its own profit from this, huge profit, therefore the us national position now should be the maximum concentration of resources against aggression in the next 2-3-4 months. russia in europe. time magazine made the top 10 global risks for 2024, mr. valery, here are the ten risks that they they are called: the first: the united states of america against itself, the second - events in the middle east, the third - divided ukraine, the fourth - uncontrolled artificial intelligence, the fifth - the new news of evil, russia, the dprk, iran, six - instability in china, seven - struggle for resources. eight - the consequences of the global inflationary shock, nine - the return of the elnino climate phenomenon and 10 - these are risks

for business, we see that in the third position they put a divided ukraine, and well, this topic about whether there should be any there, or are they happening some secret negotiations regarding of the peace plan, as bloomberg wrote, zelenskyi said today that the allies deny that the allies... are calling for a freeze on the situation in ukraine, that is, about these two divided ukraines, which is a topic that is constantly being pushed, they say, it could be for the korean there is a scenario, the president of ukraine said that there is no such thing in the conversations, although let's listen to zelenskyi and accurately reproduce his quote, no pressure from partners. and there is no from the partners regarding the cessation, the cessation of our protection, i would

not say the cessation of hostilities, though after all, this is our defense, the termination of our fair defense and the termination of our struggle, there is no pressure on this matter, regarding the frozen conflict, there is none yet, there are different voices, i have heard them in the media, read them and know them, and there are... different voices and there are various discussions, i think that the partners are not yet officially ready to give us the appropriate signals, at least i have not heard them personally. mr. valery, what does this mean, officially , the partners do not tell us this, but someone is talking, someone is conducting such negotiations, the same story with the divided ukraine and with the korean variant, it was discussed somewhere, it ’s not just that journalists sat in some newsroom and... made up this story, well, first of all, such forecasts, if you allow, regarding

this dozen, the magazine economist, who presented himself in kyiv for a joint project there with hb, that is, there are another ten, and it has been verified there, there are people there who have given forecasts before, this is, you know, a generalized reaction for today's year, let's add it with you, here we have already heard the five together with you . and i think what we discussed the conflict of south korea, north korea may escalate, after the elections in india , if modi wins, there may be a strengthening of indian nationalism and the re-establishment of pakistan with india, a contradiction, there may be a more active position of russia, we talked about it, an attack by a nato country, i think the 24th year is an absolutely probable option. this is three, the fourth, divided by the usa, i have reason to say that at the end of the year there is a huge threat

to the territorial integrity of the usa, why? because the usa is a federal country, it consists of different countries, states, what we call states, but these states are countries that have united into a single federal country . let 's talk about it, why are we only talking about ukraine, and fifthly, the biggest risk, which is a derivative of all these risks, is the weakness of the democratic world against the authoritarian populist one... to an armed attack, an answer to this must be found, and then there will not be all these origins. now about the conversations, conversations that can go anywhere, because the war, which is of little concern to you, is always tiring, so these countries, the further away the country, the more tiring it is, for example, lithuania, latvia, estonia are closer, they feel more, i already said germany , there is

france, they are a little more involved, italy, spain feel less, and what do you want from india, which is there. they don't know what is going on here in the grand scheme of things, so they are tired more than anything, and china is even more tired, so we should not look at it, we must look at one thing: the idea of ​​freezing the war, it is not realistic, both for external and internal reasons, because there is no such legislation in ukraine that anyone, even the president, can make a decision on negotiations. about the return of the territories, yes , it is impossible, you can see that the mood in the parliament is also now that such a decision, well, even to initiate a referendum of some kind, is impossible, according to polls, the ukrainian people will not take such a step, not because they do not want an end to the war, but because they understand that this will only postpone even greater losses further, so this is the first part, and the second

part, you will not draw a reliable line. front, no freeze on the front line , on the borders, when to go to the borders, and russia is still in a state, well, it attacks us with missiles, but to go to the borders of international recognition, i can say, here, well, it is not a freeze of war, after all, some kind of transfer in a different format, but before that i simply do not see the realism of these conversations, i will tell you more, you know, the first time such an idea was voiced by the american envoys... in 2014, i witnessed all this and i can say, i was even a participant in these proposals, i told them: gentlemen, go to your president, if the president of the united states says publicly that our country should surrender, then we will consider , and that's it, that's it, that's all, so

conversations are conversations, it will go in waves, depending on the problems at the front or some internal... our insecurities, it will be more or less, the more successes there are in ukraine, together with partners, team there will be fewer such conversations, as it is correct , i am not saying, i am simply saying that this scenario from my point of view, it is impossible to use, we, i will remind you of the period of the ato, when there was some demarcation line, even weapons were taken to some distance, as a result , it did not lead to completion. war , all the same, putin found a moment and, well, he understood , probably in many ways, that such a story for russia cannot drag on for a long time, because they can quickly lose then, if they keep such a period for a long time, and he left already a large-scale invasion, so from a pragmatic point of view, i don't see any options

for freezing the war, and therefore all these talks, well, it's like poultices for the poor, all these talks, the foreign minister of great britain, david cameron, said about , that britain is ready to support ukraine for years is not a matter of controversy, as in the united states of america, but the leader of the cdu in germany, friedrich merz, advocated the provision of taurus cruise missiles in ukraine and urged olaf scholz not to delay further deliveries of cruise missiles rockets we, mr. valery, have been observing a change in germany's position towards the russians for two years. of the ukrainian war, as well as the supply of weapons, and what is supplied to ukraine, what is the reason for such a change in the position of the germans? it's interesting, well , actually, i agree with everything that we really did a lot to speak german with our partners, well, frankly, you remember, and the criticism was quite so

sharp from the side, and i also spoke from the position of germany, that this is an underestimation, well, a year ago or a year and a half ago, now i can state that they made huge strides in understanding their security strategy, that is, germany made a radical u-turn from basing its strategy on the fact that russia will somehow change there and it is possible to build security on the economic model of energy development, but it turned out completely wrong, it turned out differently and now they are being rethought. for example , the supply of weapons is already a consequence of the change in this strategy, you know, it's no secret that one of the ministers in our ministry said there, well, they talked about it publicly from the first days, which you don't have. good luck with you there will be completely taken over by russia, and now they don't talk like that, they are increasing support, for which we are grateful to them, well, again, they haven't yet realized that the concentration

of support, not stretching, can give a greater effect than the father constant gradualism, but now these tauras are again, and suddenly they will be used somewhere there, something will fall on the territory of russia, well, listen, and forget it. this is about the security of europe, germany, about your leadership, which germany will be forced to take together with france for the security of britain, too, well, i am talking about continental europe, germany and france must understand that the states will not always be as they are now, and they must now, they understand it, they must increase european security at the expense of their help to ukraine, they are beginning to understand it, this already... drastic changes, but i still say, there is no point in playing in anticipation, there is still some fear, i don't know why we can be afraid, we need to take

a step in anticipation, we need to give taurus now, and that's it , that's all, the stars have all aligned, so what's the point talk already, thank you, mr. valery , i hope that we will be heard in berlin and after all, taurus will be in ukraine, it was a politician, diplomat valery chaly, thank you for an interesting conversation, friends, we are working live on the tv channel. also on our youtube and facebook platforms, if you are currently watching us on these platforms, don't be shy, please like this video, it is very important for this video to be trending on youtube and facebook. in the course of our program, we conducted and continue to conduct surveys survey and ask you this: will north korea go to war against south korea? 63% of those who watch us on tv say yes, 37% - no. hello, this is svoboda ranok, an informational project of radio svoboda.

top guests every day. this is the shipping district, kherson. turn on live. we are somewhere in the vicinity of bakhmut. we tell the main thing. on weekdays at 9:00. vasyl zima's big broadcast. two o'clock. of airtime, two hours of your time, two hours to learn about the war and what the world is about, two hours to keep up with economic news and sports news, two hours in the company of favorite presenters, presenters who have become like family to many, as well as distinguished guests of the studio, the events of the day in two hours, vasyl zima's big broadcast, a project for smart and caring people, in the evening at espresso. greetings, friends, the verdict program is being broadcast live on the tv channel, my name is serhiy rudenko.

in the second part of our program, see. the case of the bezugola, the leadership of the verkhovna rada blocks the dismissal of the scandalous deputy from the national security committee. what will the new mobilization legislation be? the government bill can be voted on tomorrow in the first reading. corruption in the ministry of defense. a week of landings, arrests and scandals. what fuses are missing to stop stealing in the army. friends, in addition to television, we also work on facebook and youtube. if you're watching us now, please like this video so it can trend on youtube and facebook. and also subscribe to our pages on these platforms, in addition, throughout our program we conduct polls, today we ask you whether north korea will go

war on south korea yes no please vote on youtube with the two buttons that are appropriate or leave your comment below this video if you watch us on tv then if you think that north korea will inevitably attack south then vote by... number 0800 211 381 no 08021382 all calls to these numbers are free call at the end of the program we will sum up the results of this vote i want to introduce today's guests of our studio these are political experts viktor boberenko expert of the bureau of analysis and politics mr. viktor i am you i congratulate you and i congratulate you, mr. viktor vitaly. director of the center for researching civil society problems, mr. vitaly, good evening, and taras zagorodniy, political technologist, managing partner of the national anti-crisis group, mr. taras, congratulations, thank you

for... joining our broadcast today. good evening. let's start with a poll blitz as we ask our viewers and viewers what they think if north korea will go to war against south korea, but in the youtube comments our viewers are saying, who cares north south korea? although north korean ballistic missiles fall on the territory of the ukrainian state and in general north korea already takes it in this way. participation in the russian-ukrainian war, let's very briefly share our thoughts on whether this war will be in northern south korea, whether it will be part of the great third world war, because we are seeing now actually three wars, it is the russian-ukrainian, on the middle east, well , north korean and south korean began there. mr. viktor, let's start with you. eh, rather than everything will not be, why, because if... say,

kimchinin was going to attack south korea, then he would not hand over 1.5 million shells to the russian side, much less would he hand over ballistic missiles to it, well, on the eve of the war, when they they themselves need it, however , why i allow still a small possibility that it is possible, as a rule, as i wrote the other night, when you look into the abyss, the abyss looks into us, and two countries can screw themselves ... so much, but from now on , north korea is working for putin, that is, she is doing everything to make south korea and the whole world in general be horrified, yes, that is, this is an old russian method, there, like yelling to everyone that i am a monkey with a grenade and to make them afraid of you, then actually they can screw themselves up, screw something up , second and bluffing until the war, thank you. viktor

, mr. vitaly, well, as a person who has been to both north and south korea, i can say to myself that at the moment i have no, let's say, confidence that kin jr. will not start a local provocation, which can take the form of escalation, war, as it was last time in the 50s, there will not be... but the fact that they are ready for a local conflict, for maximum escalation, it is similar to the fact that, although in relations south and north korea have had cases where they were almost in step from this in 2010 the north koreans shelled the same islands they are now shelling and then there were military and civilian casualties and this led to the breaking of a number of agreements between north and south korea, but i would like

to remind you... that kim jr. is copying in this of his grandfather kimersen, and under kimersen it was exactly these provocations that happened. let me remind you that after the end of the korean war, in 1968 , north korean special forces carried out a so-called raid on the blue house, that is , the president's house in seoul in 1968, after it ended, with the capture of hostages, shooting at seoul in populated areas, and so on. the north koreans allegedly kidnapped japanese citizens from oyster beds to... train their spies, that is, the grandfather was ready for provocation, for symmetrical responses, and it seems to me that the grandson, who copies everything from his grandfather from appearance to foreign policy style, can take radical steps, provocations, but for this he needs a retribution from beijing, because 98% of all foreign economic transactions of north korea, they are reflected through china, accordingly, if china agrees, then this

provocation... will happen, if china is not ready for it, then everything will end with another request to provide food aid, as it also happened in the history of relations. thank you, mr. vitaly, mr. taras, well, look, i'm the first added another ongoing conflict, which is often forgotten now, it is the houthis who are actually destroying international logistics, it is a proxy of iran, in fact, so not only israel, not only ukraine, but all of them think the same, that's what... pay attention to and this has a huge impact already on world trade, just not everyone feels it. further, i believe that there is a high probability that there will still be a local conflict. i wouldn't underestimate north korea again, the fact that they transferred missiles and so on, i don't mean anything because we don't know what's going on in north korea. and in north korea, the following may have occurred.