there, without american approachability, iran will become very, very strong, and this agreement between saudi arabia and iran , even in some ways this war, well, not to be questioned, but conditions have been created in which, perhaps, everything will be completely different, although saudi arabia itself, despite the fact that at one time they fought against the houthis, they did not fight very successfully, let's be honest, for now they refrained from any... their interventions, although they supported the actions of this coalition, that is, there is such a belt unfolding somewhere here, where iran, despite sanctions, despite significant restrictions, still tries to exert pressure, and to exert pressure very significantly, not only in lebanon, but also not only in the gulf of pats, here we also see in yemen, that is, it was such a demonstration of force that in case of which iran can in principle, to create a threat up to... the complete closure

of the babelmandep strait, which essentially connects the red sea with the indian ocean and through which a very large part of cargo passes, well, that is, it is one of the main keys, it is the key trade route of the world in general, and that is why here iran is in such a situation the beneficiary, who in spite of everything holds on and somewhere also calls for an appropriate dialogue, for appropriate reactions, tries to take into account the interests and, probably, the situation will move to the persian gulf, when iran will continue to intercept tankers there, there is now a dispute between iran and ob by the united arab emirates, because the emirates claim three islands there, the islands are not so important there, but the oil deposits not far from them, that is, this is such a long-term game that has been going on in the region for many years and positions. only

one of those pages in this whole game. and tell me, please, do i understand correctly , mr. mikhail, that in fact the state of south yemen, which was once founded before the unification of the two parts of yemen, has been recreated, is governed by a parallel government and does not take any part in all these stories, because we have seen , that bombed sana'a, and aden, this former capital of southern yemen, it was once a semi-communist state that was in close relations with the soviet union, nobody touches it. i ask my colleagues to get in touch with mykhailo yakubovych, if we have time, orientalist, we have problems with the connection and i am currently a candidate of historical sciences, a research associate of the oriental studies department of the university of freiburg from germany, a very important question from vitaly. the troops

of the united arab emirates, and by the way, here is also an interesting thing, that in fact southern yemen was actually recreated, mr. mykhailo, you have us so, well, that's how we will end our discussion about southern yemen, it is now, well he is, but he, he is essentially emirati. but since the emirates are in much better relations with the west than iran, then he is on his own is as such a territory under the control of the west, despite the fact that it is not very populated, but the problem is that the khosits pass through the port, yes, and this border of saudi arabia has access to the red sea, and there are islands there, according to its narrowest part , as well, and they can easily from there by some even, well, relatively primitive means in... attack civilian

shipping, and the island of sohotra, in particular, it is generally under the direct control of the emirates, because there is a military base of the emirates, that's another question that through too a certain effort to maintain the balance of power, the emirates are not ready for a serious war there, but they are interested in the strikes of the coalition, of course , in order to weaken the hosts, another question is that there are really not only external factors, in fact the so-called habro. yemen is two parts of yemen itself, that is , the north and the south - this is a long war that began even after the fall of the imamate regime in yemen in 1962, and then the soviet union, accordingly, many different regional separatist movements also invested there. mr. mykhailo, very briefly at the end, i have to ask, what will the escalation of the confrontation mean for the region? sunni and

shia world in general, this confrontation has been going on, actually, for a long time, different lines are going, but now there are a lot of movements. pro-islamic, such as hamas or islamist, even, such as the same houthis, they try to appeal to such pan-arab solidarity or even pan-islamic solidarity, for example, hamas emerged from the muslim brotherhood, as a sunni movement, this does not prevent it maintain relations with hezbollah and iran, in the same way, the houthis belong to moderate shiism, to zaydism, but i also try... to appeal to the slogans of arab nationalism and to islamism in such a broad sense, that is why there are so many movements here, which are currently sunni and shiite, they understand that purely religious identity, it does not bring

the desired results, and under the slogans of such, you know, islamic unity, they try to sell very different kinds of projects to the broad sections of the population. well, supposedly of global importance, given the poverty of yemen, it is the poorest arab country and dependence on humanitarian aid, on various forces, in principle it often works out, therefore they have no problems with mobilization and recruitment of new forces. thank you, mykhailo yakubovych, orientalist, candidate of historical sciences, researcher of the oriental studies department of freiburg university from germany, was in touch with us, we will take a short break now. let's go so stay with us pain can be a hindrance walking with steps not with my knees for knee pain try dolgit cream dolgit cream relieves pain reduces swelling

and improves the mobility of the joints, with dolgit cream, you can also walk, dolgit is the only yellow cream for pain in the joints, with muscle spasms , dolgit anti-convulsants tablets, dolgit anti-seizure tablets to relax muscles and calves, there are discounts on citramon darnytsia 10% in pharmacies travel to you and save. new york of the 19th century is luxury, scandals and intrigues. gilded age from hbo. watch all seasons of the exquisite drama in ukrainian with a subscription. turn on aristocratic on me. there are discounts on citrik, 20% in psaryznyk, pam and ochadnyk pharmacies. today at 9 p.m. on the espresso tv channel , we will talk about the following in the weekly news summary. now not only iran, north korea has become an important military ally of russia and sells its

missiles. can they turn the tide of the war? balki tour. volodymyr zelenskyi's first trip abroad this year. fair mobilization and recruiting, how best to replenish the ranks of the armed forces of ukraine? compensation under the program includes restoration, ukrainians book certificates to receive compensation for property destroyed by the russians. see you soon, fr 21st. and we continue the saturday political club, your favorite part of the conversation with vitaly portnikov on the hottest topics and news of the week. it's just that now we are talking about the counting of votes in the presidential elections

in taiwan, where the current vice president laichinte is leading. this is reported by the international media. he represents the ruling democratic-progressive party, he is 64 years old. he used to say that... taiwan is already a sovereign state, it is not necessary to declare its independence at all. china generally calls it dangerous a separatist but we understand that the fate of taiwan is not decided exclusively by presidential elections. mr. vitaly, what do you think this vote is about, based on its previous results? you know, i think it's to some extent about the stability of the sentiment of the citizens, because the fact that the democratic... the progressive party managed to retain the presidency, uh, that's the first such result in the history of the republic of china in taiwan since the beginning of the democratic processes, because we also have to remember that it did not happen immediately,

today, by the way, is another anniversary of the death of general musachen keisha, the founder of the kuomintang in its current taiwanese form, and as you understand, during the reign of chiang kai-shek. there was no such democracy in taiwan, there was basically a one-party regime of the kuomintang party, but when the son of president chenkesha, jiang qinggo. who you know had a soviet experience, was a yermalayev in the soviet union, had a russian wife for the soviet union who became the first lady of taiwan, it's such an amazing story, yes with all the hate the soviet union to taiwan, where a russian woman was the first lady for many years, then he started the process of democratization, it ended in the defeat of the kuomintang in the presidential and parliamentary elections, and from then on, the kuomintang and the democratic progressive party changed. each other in the management of the country, at least after two terms of the president from one country

, the winning party won, as a rule, the candidate of the other. the current situation is completely different, although it is indeed the situation at the parliamentary elections, as we talked about it with valery chaly, it looks different, too, because according to the latest reports, as shown by the newspaper taibay times, the kuomintang gets 52 seats in the parliament. and the democratic progressive party has 51 seats, and eight seats remain behind another political party, the party that took third place in the presidential election, the taiwan people's party, and in this party, as you can see, there is now a golden share on the actual structure taiwanese authorities, so much will depend. from the position of the leaders of this party, from the position of this party in the parliament,

it's headed by a famous businessman kay wenja, he's dead in taipei, ugh, while there's hoyi, a losing candidate from the dan party, he's the mayor of new taipei, what's going on around the capital, actually, anyway, it's really quite interesting situation, because everyone is asking, what really with... now there may be a situation where china will attack taiwan as a result of these elections, i don't think so, uh, because the following question arises: why exactly as a result of these presidential and parliamentary elections, the people's republic of china had to attack taiwan, which changed in teiban as a result of these nothing, any other configuration of power, it would have created a new situation, but the leader of the kuomintang party, howe, won, who just on the last day. during the election campaign , during a press conference, he said: i will not be such a dangerous friend of the united states as

volodymyr zelensky or benjamin netanyahu, no, i will be a peacemaker, i will be the one to negotiate with beijing, such a position naturally creates opportunities to put pressure on such politics, the question is not even in his own position, in how it will look from the side, well, we know this from the ukrainian experience, moscow began to put pressure on volodymyr zelensky from the very first day of the new president's tenure in office, let's imagine. that in 2019, volodymyr zelenskyi will lose the elections in the second round to petro poroshenko. what is changing for russia? nothing, nothing i am not saying that russia would not necessarily attack ukraine, but it would proceed from the stability of the situation in our country. the situation, of course, after the election of volodymyr zelenskyi as the president of ukraine, after the appearance of completely new people in the servant of the people party in the verkhovna rada the council of ukraine has turned into, at least from the russian point of view, a situation of complete turbulence. ideal conditions were created by the ukrainian voters themselves.

elections in the united states, that begs the question, we say all the time. the president of the russian federation, vladimir putin, will not agree on anything with ukraine before the presidential elections in the united states, he will look at the results of the elections, at who will still win, at what the congress will look like, and it will be based on that, when he will determine his next one tactics in the war with ukraine. and what is the difference between the head of the people's republic of china, well, he also has to wait for november to understand who he has to deal with, because one thing is biden, the thing is trump, trump, i would say,

is aimed at confrontation with china, so way, you can make a mistake, you can start a war , then wait for trump, who will act very differently in the south china sea in the taiwan strait than his predecessor, and the pressure that can come from trump and trump's determination in relation to china of the people's republic, may be completely different than biden's determination, so in this situation. i think that xi jinping, even if he is planning some military action, he would like to play it safe, wait until november, and see if he can act by force. taking into account the configuration that will be in the usa, and this is an important point, so that in this regard not much will change in the coming months, there is also another point when we compare the war between russia and ukraine for ourselves, we must understand that as a result of the war russia and

ukraine have indeed had serious events economic cataclysm, but not significant, because as i once said... russia is such an inadequate gas station. what happens when we give up russian oil and gas is a serious problem, but it did not turn out the way even the europeans thought. yes, that is , it turned out that it is possible to completely calmly replace russian gas and live completely calmly. i will tell you more, there are countries that have not given up on russian pipeline gas, that is... let's say hungary. well, i recently saw a post that said, the money for gas that hungary pays today would be much less, and for it to buy gas on the stock exchange, that is, the question arises, and what, in what sense, in what sense of these energy relations,

nothing was particularly reflected, russia itself turned out to be not so and sensitive to westerners. sanctions, because it rebuilt its economy for cooperation with asia, but the west did not feel anything so strongly from the point of view of energy prices and so on. now let's look at what will happen to taiwan and china, this is no longer the oil of memory. these are chips semiconductors and semiconductors. let's imagine that the war between china and taiwan will move to the territory of taiwan. damn, the americans, as far as i understand, are currently planning just such a war. because he thinks. that earlier there was an approach and it was in principle effective for many decades, which emphasized that the taiwanese naval forces simply will not allow the chinese army to enter the territory of the republic of china on taiwan, that the chinese will be stopped already in a naval war. there is no such certainty now. china has significantly

modernized and rebuilt its navy, and it is the danger that the people's liberation army of china. will be able to land on the territory of ostov, so taiwan is now turning into a fortress, a fortress on the territory of which there will be fierce battles between taiwan and china, and the taiwanese are ready for this, you know, we told passers-by who was a kuomintang candidate and lost this election, yes kooy did not invite the latter to his last pre-election rally. of the president of the republic of china from the kuomintang mao inju, what? because manju said that taiwan won't beat china anyway. ugh. this statement proved to be enough, as well as ma's recent trip to china, for me not to see him at my election rally, even though we are talking about a man who symbolizes the achievements and victories

of the kuomintang. i will say that we have different approaches to relations with china, so that's it. the consolidated position of the taiwanese establishment, it does not differ much from the position of the democratic party and the kuomintang, that is, both political forces do not declare independence, and china already believes that the progressive party is more separatist, and the kuomintang is less separatist because the kuomintang has its roots in the mainland, uh, and all these people who ran the chinese communist party, they were all members of the kuomintang governing bodies, and mao zedong and john li these foundations in kener, they were in the kuomintang , it was an all-national such party, but the democratic progressive party was created in taiwan itself, and therefore it no longer arouses great enthusiasm, but both of these leading parties have an absolutely accurate understanding that china must be resisted, and now let's imagine

the fate of these businesses, ugh, what will happen to the world economy, imagine one fine day, china destroys these businesses simply because missile strikes, bombings, people fleeing somewhere, not even that they will be destroyed, because people can fleeing, leaving the territories, emigrating somewhere, one moment, the next moment, sanctions are introduced against the people's republic of china and its enterprises, which means that china is returning somewhere, in the 70s of the 20th century, to the times when in the yards ... their homes, the chinese were making steel because comrade mao zedong wanted to overtake the united states and the soviet union, it looked comical, but no... here is the problem, the fact that the chinese economy will return to the 70s of the 20th century is a small a small problem, because in the 70s of the 20th century it was a poor, underdeveloped state with an idiotic

ideology of the post-cultural revolution, a state that could only be liked by european intellectuals, who would not be full of reason, various sartres, but the world economy will return there in those times sartre and it will be even worse. because everything that was built in china and taiwan will disappear as an economic factor, it will take time to move production from china to india or to malaysia or to some other countries, then do not think, this is also an illusion, that the production that will be located in india will work with the same efficiency of their production that is located in china, there are different traditions of production culture. yes, which also should not be forgotten, the question is not even in cheap labor, but in order to teach to make the economy work, let's say, the way

the chinese economy works, it also takes time, effort and tradition, the economies of china and india have different traditions in terms of the behavior and encouragement of workers, the chinese gladly joined this competition out of spite. if only because they spent decades in poverty, communist, and before that they had a completely different economy, and india has always had such an economy, they were not in the communist world, they simply live in a world with a different attitude towards such and such a monotonous, and works, mr. vitaly, i will simply supply the question is, do you think such an open military conflict with the destruction of the industry in taiwan by china is possible, given that... the famous taiwanese semiconductors are used, and owned, and owned, and owned, of course, by china itself, here , well, yes, well, we

, from the point of view, look, from the point of view of logic, nothing like this could be, yes, and cannot be, but from the point of view of logic, russia should have gained full influence in ukraine a long time ago, promote , er,... signing of the association agreement by ukraine, lobbying for european integration of ukraine, to buy 90% of the economy here and through the ukrainian economy to corrupt the west absolutely calmly, despite the fact that the president of ukraine would simply be the governor of this territory, which would be part of russian influence on the west, you understand, on a much larger level, than viktor orban, and... i am not referring to the current president, as you understand, or i am referring to viktor yanukovych, who signed the agreement on social vyta is not necessary, putin told him, we all remember it, i.e. there could be such

a government, it was like that, there was a population, the majority of which was pro-russian oriented and euro-atlantic skeptical, this majority could only be increased at the expense of economic preferences, propaganda, russian television, we had all this, i remind you, everything we had. until 2013, when the east and south of ukraine were completely oriented towards moscow, they wanted to live like in europe, but here, so that there was half- russia, the soviet union always said that as soon as you leave kyiv towards kharkiv, you enter the soviet union , by 2013 that is there was the soviet union of clean water, then , by the way, where belgrade was, then there was still russia, not the soviet union, they were building a different state infrastructure there, not for russia, but for the soviet, for some russian state traditions there, which they completely destroyed after all this, they returned with incredible speed precisely to the soviet

union, which we have now, neither in odesa, nor in kharkiv, you will not even find a day with fire, so to speak, and this is also a very important point, but they did all this, logically, it was possible plan to write the incorporation of ukraine into the russian civilizational space with... the simultaneous influence of russia on the west, and what did they do, on the contrary? crimea is ours, we are protecting the russian people in donbas, it was all illogical. and we are talking about people, remember, who basically grew up as political figures in the culture of the market economy, in the culture of the oligarchic economy, people who left the communist party and threw party tickets themselves. vladimir putin stood next to anatoly savchak for a moment. rallies in st. petersburg against the putsch, and that these people behaved like complete idiots. now imagine that in the chinese version we are dealing with the politburo

of the communist central committee. we did not talk about them, no matter how beautiful they looked, no matter what suits they wore, they are ideological dogmatists, and they are ideological dogmatists in the dynastic sense of the word, vladimir putin was born in it is not known where, in general, he is some kind of native of st. petersburg, who are all these people , who surround him, they are nobody. their parents are nobody, they themselves are nobody, their grandfathers are nobody, they are they just made something up for themselves because they read a couple of books in their lives, and sizenfin, he is the son of one of the functionaries of the communist party of china, he is what is called a party principle, this is exactly how half of the chinese leadership is formed, these are all dynasties of people who have their parents or other relatives, as top leaders

of the communist party, so formed... china, as you understand, they have these views, these are views of a clan-communist nature, they really believe in it, but vladimir putin believed in this russian world, because he needed to create an ideology that would allow him to retain power, he could believe in anything else if it was convenient for him, ugh, he started running to church, remember, sasha lukashenko said in the first years of his rule that he was an atheist, ugh, and when he began to get closer to russia, vozvysilsya biga votserkvilsya run to church, go there to be baptized, that is, it became his ideology, although he does not believe in god and he said it out loud, but sydzenpin, believe me, is a completely different person, he all in all this believes, and what he definitely believes in is the reunification of the homeland, well, under the communist flag, it's not just a russian

peace. this is the empire, all that , what putin says, it is real what they came to power for, they believe that the civil war has not ended in them, that is why the army is called the people's liberation army of china, why is it called just the army, we will liberate the territories, we will go and the people who are practically trapped in the situation, and the people who are still under the power of the west, the people's liberation army has not finished its mission, you know, in... the main outpost of the red army , it seemed that they had finished their campaign in the pacific ocean, because they had reached the end of the russian empire, and there they destroyed the last white guards, well, in the territory then, which was still called, by the way, taiwan , a far eastern republic that the soviet union, the soviet union, the russian federation, i'm sorry, had diplomatic relations with, like from another country, and they eventually eliminated it, like taiwan, it was taiwan, there

was... another country before several years in a row, and that's all, after that the red army is in some way moment became the soviet army, and the chinese people's liberation army has no chance of becoming anything else until the prc flag is raised in taipei, ugh, and that's the problem, the problem is not that you and i think realistically about what it's all about can lead to, to be honest, can lead to the third world war, to be completely honest. "the reason is that they are idiots, that they believe in communist ideology, that they are not ready for compromises, ugh, that they violate their own obligations, you see the point , they had an opportunity, basically, that opportunity was created for them by denciopy when he agreed with great britain about the integration of hong kong, uh, and that was that they would not violate the democratic status of hong kong, there 50 or 70

years, i don't remember exactly what was written there, you have to watch it, but the point is that they broke their commitments, they started imposing their rules of the game on hong kong, they started persecuting people who wanted to to maintain sovereign status there hong kong, despite the fact that without this hong kong their economy is nothing, that all their financial transactions take place through hong kong, that no one trusts the chinese stock exchange itself, trusts only the hong kong stock exchange, that if they destroy hong kong, they will in principle... finally destroy opportunities development of their own economy, well, what about them, they seem to have created all the ideal conditions, they do not let the chinese into hong kong, you know, a chinese citizen of the people's republic of china must obtain a visa to come to hong kong, to on the contrary, they let foreigners into hong kong without visas, but at the same time they destroy everything that makes hong kong a free city, so to speak, and the taiwanese look at this hong kong as i go.