china generally calls him a dangerous separatist, but we understand that the fate of taiwan is decided not solely by presidential elections. mr. vitaly, what do you think this vote is about, based on its previous results. you know, i think it's to some extent about the stability of the mood of the citizens, because the fact that the democratic progressive parties managed to keep the office of the president for themselves, huh. this is the first such result in the history of the republic of china in taiwan since the beginning of democratic processes, because we must also remember that it did not happen immediately, today, by the way , is another anniversary of the death of general chiang kai-shek, the founder of the kuomintang in its current taiwanese form, and as you understand, during the reign of chiang kai -shek, there was no such democracy in taiwan, there was basically a one-party party regime. his mind, but

when president chenkesha's son jiang qinggo, who you know had soviet experience, was ermalaev in the soviet union, had a russian wife from the soviet union who became the first lady of taiwan, it's such an amazing story, yes, with all the hatred of the soviet union for taiwan, there a russian woman was the first lady for many years, but he started the process of democratization, it ended in the end. the loss of the kuomintang in the presidential and parliamentary elections, and from that time the kuomintang and the democratic progressive party replaced each other in the management of the country, at least after two terms the president from one country won the party , usually the candidate of the other won, the current situation is completely different, although indeed the situation at the parliamentary elections, as we talked about it with valery chaly, it looks different, too, because according to the latest reports, which is ... indicated by the newspaper taibay times,

the kuomintang gets 52 seats in the parliament, while the democratic progressive party gets 51 seats, and eight seats are left for another political party , behind the party that took third place in the presidential election is the people's party, the taiwan people's party, and in this party, as you can see, there is now a golden share on... on actually the structure of the taiwanese government, so a lot will depend on the position of the leaders of this party, from the position of this party in the parliament, it is headed by the famous businessman kei wenzhe, he is the mayor of taipei, ugh, while there is a losing candidate from the homeland party, he is the mayor of new taipei, so what is all this happening around the capital, really , in any case, this is really quite an interesting situation.

because everyone is asking, what really, now a situation may arise when china will attack taiwan as a result of these elections, i don't think so, uh, because the following question arises: why exactly as a result of these presidential and parliamentary elections, the people's republic of china had to attack taiwan, what changed in taiwan in the results, nothing, any other configuration of power, it would have created a new situation. the leader of the kuomintang won, who said during a press conference on the last day of the election campaign: "i will not be such a dangerous friend of the united states as volodymyr zelensky or benjamin netanyahu." no, i will be a peacemaker, i will be the one negotiating with beijing. such a position, of course, creates opportunities for pressure on such a politician, the question is not even in his own position, but in how it will look from the side, and we know this from the ukrainian experience. moscow began to put pressure on volodymyr

zelensky from the very first day of the new president's tenure. and let's imagine that in 2019, volodymyr zelensky loses the elections in the second round to petro poroshenko. what is changing for russia? nothing, nothing. i am not saying that russia would not necessarily have attacked ukraine, but it would have been based on the stability of the situation in our country. the situation, of course, after the election of volodymyr zelenskyi as the president of ukraine, after the appearance of completely new people in the servant of the people party in the verkhovna rada of ukraine, they changed, at least from from which point of view, the situation of complete turbulence was created by the ukrainian voters themselves ideal conditions for this war, which began in february 2022, the taiwanese voters did not create these ideal conditions, this does not mean that there cannot be a war, it means that not presidential and parliamentary elections are an indicator, a catalyst, so thank you for your word, catalyst for such a conflict, now the next point is very important, it concerns... november 2024,

the presidential elections in the united states, the question arises, we say all the time, the president of the russian federation, vladimir putin, will not agree on anything with ukraine, until presidential elections in the united states, he will look at the results of the elections, at who will win after all, at what the congress will look like, and this will already be the starting point when he will determine his next tactics in the war with ukraine. and what is the difference between the head of the people 's republic of china, well, he also has to wait for november to understand who he has to deal with, because one thing is biden, another thing is trump. trump, i would say , is aimed at ... confrontation with china, so you can make a mistake, you can start a war, then wait for trump, who will act very differently in the south china sea and in the taiwan strait than his predecessor, and the pressure that may take place on the part of trump and trump's determination in relation to china of the people's republic, may be completely

different than biden's determination. therefore, in this situation, i think that xi jinping, even if he is planning some military action, he would like to play it safe. wait until november and see if he can act by force, given the configuration that the us will have, and that's an important point, so in that sense, not much will change in the next months, there 's another point where we compare the war for ourselves between russia and ukraine, we must understand that the war between russia and ukraine really took place as a result. serious economic cataclysm, but not significant, because as john mccain once said, russia is a gas station, so inadequate, what happens when we give up russian oil and gas is

a serious problem, but it turned out not as even the europeans thought, that is, it turned out that it is possible to completely calmly replace russian gas and... to live completely calmly, i will tell you more, there are countries that did not give up russian pipeline gas, let's say hungary, that's what i saw recently publication, according to which the money for gas that hungary pays today would be much less, and that it buys gas on the stock exchange, that is, the question arises, and what, in which, in what sense these energy mutual nothing. reflected especially, russia itself turned out to be not so sensitive to western sanctions, because it rebuilt its economy in cooperation with asia, but the west did not feel anything so much from the point of view of energy prices and so on. now let's look at

what will happen with taiwan and china. it's not anymore oil and gas, these are chips, semiconductors, semiconductors. let's imagine that the war between china and taiwan will move. on the territory of taiwan, by the way, the americans, as far as i understand, are now planning just such a war, because it is believed that there was an approach before, and it basically operated for many decades, which emphasized that the taiwanese naval forces simply will not allow the chinese army to the territory of the republic of china to taiwan, that the chinese will be stopped already in a naval war. there is no such certainty now. china has greatly modernized and... built its navy, and there is a danger that the people's liberation army of china will be able to land on the island, so taiwan is now turning into a fortress, a fortress on the territory of which there will be fierce fighting between taiwan and china, and the taiwanese

are ready to this, you know, we were talking about khoi, who was a kuomintang candidate and lost that election. so kooy didn't invite the last president of the republic of china from kuomintang mauindu to his last pre-election rally, why? that maandyu said that taiwan still won't beat china. ugh. this statement proved to be enough, as well as ma's recent trip to china, to prevent her from seeing him at her campaign rally, even though this is a man who symbolizes the achievements and victories of the kuomintang. because he said that we have different approaches to relations with china, so this is a consolidated position of the taiwanese establishment, the positions of the democratic party and the kuomintang do not differ much here, that is, both political forces do not declare independence, and that is already

china thinks that the progressive party is more separatist and the kuomintang is less separatist, because the kuomintang has its origins in the mainland, uh, and all these people who ruled. the communist party of china, they were all members of the kuomintang's governing bodies, and mao zedong, and joon, all the founders of kener, they were in the kuomintang, it was a nationwide such party, so ah... the democratic progressive party was created in taiwan itself, and therefore it no longer arouses much enthusiasm, but there is an absolutely accurate understanding in both of these leading parties that china needs to resist, and now let's imagine the fate of these enterprises, ugh, what will happen to the world economy, imagine one fine day, china destroys these enterprises simply because missile strikes, bombs. people are interested somewhere, not even in the fact that they will be destroyed, because people can flee, workers can leave the territory,

emigrate somewhere, one moment, the next moment, sanctions are introduced against the people's republic of china and its enterprises, which means that china is returning somewhere, in the 70s of the 20th century, in the times when in their yards homes, the chinese were making steel because ... comrade mao zedong wanted to overtake the united states and the soviet union, it looked comical, but that's not what the problem is, that the chinese economy will return to the 70s of the 20th century, it a small and small problem , because in the 70s of the 20th century it was a poor, underdeveloped state with an idiotic ideology of the post-cultural revolution, a state that could only be liked by european intellectuals who would be out of their minds for various sartres, but... the world economy will return there in times sartre and it will be even worse, because everything

that was built in china and taiwan will disappear as an economic factor in order to move production from china to india , it takes time or to malaysia or to some other countries, then there is no need to think , it is also an illusion that the production that will be located in india will work with such... efficiency of their production that is located in china, there are different traditions of production culture, yes, which should also not be forgotten, the question is not even in the cheap workforce, and in order to teach the economy to work, let's say so, the way the chinese economy works, it also takes time, effort and tradition. the economies of china and india have different traditions in terms of behavior and encouragement of the worker. the chinese happily joined this

race to get rich, if only because they spent decades in poverty, communist, and before that they had a completely different economy, ugh, and india has this economy all the time, they weren't in the communist world, they just i live in the world of a different attitude towards such and such monotonous work, mr. vitaly i'm just asking if you think it's possible to have an open military conflict with the destruction of taiwan's industry by china, given that china itself uses and owns and owns and owns the famous taiwanese semiconductors, of course it's here well, yes, well, here we are, look, from the point of view of logic, nothing like this could have happened, and it cannot happen, but from the point of view of logic , russia... should have gained full influence in ukraine a long time ago, contributed to the signing by ukraine

of the agreement on association, to lobby the european one the integration of ukraine, to buy 90% of the economy here and through the ukrainian economy to corrupt the west absolutely calmly, despite the fact that the president of ukraine would simply be the governor of this territory, well, what would be the part. of russian influence on the west , you see, at a much higher level than viktor orban, i don’t mean the current president, as you understand, or i mean viktor yanukovych, who signed the no-prosace agreement, putin told him, we we remember, that is, there could be such a power, it was like that, there was a population, the majority of which was pro-russian oriented and euro-atlantic skeptical, this majority could only be increased at the expense of... economic preferences, propaganda, russian television, we had all this, i remind you, everything that it was until

2013, when the east and south of ukraine were completely oriented towards moscow, they wanted to live like in europe, but here, so that there was a half-russia, the soviet union always said that as soon as you leave kyiv in the direction of kharkiv, you fall into soviet union, to in 2013, it was the soviet union of clean water, then... by the way, where belgrade was, then there was still russia, not the soviet union, they were building a different state infrastructure there, not geared towards russia, not the soviet union, but some the russian state traditions there, which they completely... destroyed after all this, they returned with incredible speed precisely to the soviet union, which we have now, neither in odessa nor in kharkiv, you will not find even a day with fire, so to speak , and this is also a very important point, but that's all they did, and logically, it was possible to write a plan for the incorporation of ukraine into the russian civilizational space with the simultaneous influence

of russia on the west, and what they did on the contrary, our crimea. protecting the russian people in donbas, it was all illogical, and we are talking about people, remember, who basically grew up as political figures in the culture of a market economy, in the culture of an oligarchic economy, people who left the communist party, themselves left the party tickets, vladimir putin stood next to anatoly sabchak at the famous rally in st. petersburg against putsch, and these people behaved like complete idiots. now imagine that in the chinese version we are dealing with the politburo of the central committee of the communist party of china, with the standing committee of the politburo, with people who, no matter what we say about them, no matter how beautiful they look, no matter what suits they wear, they are ideological dogmatists, and they are ideological dogmatists in the dynastic sense of the word, vladimir putin was born in it is not known

where in general he is a native of st. petersburg. backdoor, who are all these people, what is his those around them are nobody, their parents are nobody , they themselves are nobody, their grandfathers are nobody, they just made something up for themselves because they read a couple of books in their life, and shizenfin, he is the son of one of the functionaries of the communist party of china, he is what is called a party prince, half of the chinese leadership is formed in the same way, these are all dynasties of people who have their... parents or other relatives as the top leaders of the communist party, this is how china is formed , as you understand, they have these views, these are the views of the clan- of a communist nature, they are in it really believe, but vladimir putin believed in this russian world because he needed to create an ideology that would allow him to gain power, he could

believe in anything else if it was convenient for him, well, he started running to church, remember you see, sasha lukashenko... in the first years of his reign , he said that he was an atheist, yes, but when he became oleksandr grigoryovych and began to get closer to russia, he got high, ran to church, ran to church, went to be baptized there, that is, it became his ideology, although he in he doesn't believe in god and he said it out loud, but sidzhenping, believe me, is a completely different person, he believes in everything, and what he definitely believes in is reunification. homeland, yes, under the communist flag, this is not just the russian world , this is the empire, all that, what putin says is the reality of what they came to power for, they believe that they have not finished their civil war, that's why the army is called the people's liberation army of china, why is it called simply an army, we will go to liberate the territories and the people who in

traps practically the situation of people who are still under the power. of the west, the people's liberation army did not finish its mission, you know, in the main song of the red army, it seemed that they finished their campaign in the pacific ocean, because they reached the end of the russian empire, they destroyed the last white guards there, uh, in the territory then, which at that time, by the way, it was still called taiwan, a far eastern republic, and with which the soviet union, the soviet union, the russian federation, i'm sorry, had diplomatic relations, as with another state. and they eventually her eliminated, like taiwan, it was taiwan , there was a completely different state until several years in a row, and that’s it, after that the red army at some point became the soviet army, and the chinese people’s liberation army has no chance of becoming anything else until the moment when the flag the prc is not going to go up in taipei,

uh, and that's the problem, the problem is not that you and i are realistically thinking about what...that could lead to, it could lead to a third world war, to be honest, if at all absolutely sincere, then in that that they are idiots, that they believe in communist ideology, that they are not ready to compromise, ugh, that they are violating their own commitments, you see the point, they had an opportunity, basically this opportunity was created for them by denzio ping when agreed with great britain about the integration of hong kong, uh, and... and it was that they would not violate the democratic status of hong kong, i think 50 or 70 years there, i don't remember exactly what was written there, it you have to watch e. ​​but the question is that they breached their obligations. they began to impose their rules of the game on hong kong. they began to persecute people who wanted to maintain hong kong's sovereign status there. this is despite

the fact that without this hong kong, their economy is nothing, that all their financial transactions take place through hong kong. that no one trusts the chinese stock exchange itself, only the hong kong stock exchange, that if they destroy hong kong, they will, in principle, finally destroy the opportunities for the development of their own economy, and that they seem to have created them all. all perfect conditions, they don't let the chinese in hong kong, you know, a chinese, of course, from the people's republic of china , has to get a visa to come to hong kong, on the contrary, they let foreigners into hong kong without visas, but along with them they destroy everything that makes hong kong a free city, so to speak, and the taiwanese look at this hong kong and think, well, we will agree on this principle, one country, two systems , they will keep our government for us, but for how many years, they will be allowed here, we will not be able to stop them then, we have there won't be an army that hong kong doesn't have, we won't have one special services, which hong kong does not have, we will simply have the guarantees of great britain, oh,

by the way, okay, yes, a good illustration, you don’t believe in them, i see it that way, and even more so, we probably wouldn’t want something like that ukraine also signed the united states , it is better that something is more substantive, no, no , i would say, i did not say that, i did not say that i do not believe, i would say that it is not something that will allow.. . make sure, uh, it's, you know, it's better than nothing, 100%, and don't forget that in these ha these, what's it called, how do you time every word i'm hammering out is not a guarantee but an assurance, an assurance, yes, it 's an assurance, they provide that we should have an army of a level that will enable us to help great britain if she is attacked, we always have to remember, by the way, to our people, to say that all the time when we are in favor of signing these... assurances, they will be bilateral, so that ukrainians will die in the red sea and in the taiwan gulf in the future, if we

all we will arrange it, listen, well, we are also in nato let's enter with exactly the same ones, it doesn't mean that we don't need to enter no, but people just need to know this, we need to realize that our victims, say, from the war in the taiwan strait, if it is there in 10 years, may be greater than on the russian-ukrainian front. you just need to know, this is the price, maybe we will be lucky, maybe not, and maybe so, this is reality, because it will be a war with china, and a war with china is not a war with russia, there are a billion people, it you are not some unfortunate 140 million, they will not talk there, you know, of course they are in several times more, more, but we can take the quality, no, no, no, this is a completely different story, we just need to remember this, as the next page of our history, that russia will not attack us here, but there will be a war there, it may be so. and these documents , in principle, create a platform for us to participate in this, this is also true, because in order not to be told later, not to be overtaken, this does not mean that it is not necessary to participate, but

it is necessary to remember that this mutual obligation, all that i said, all that it is not not only we will be protected, but our soldiers will participate in other wars, this does not mean, oh, we all did not leave this war to our children, our children will not die anymore, because we are for the sake of our did not die today, we join the defense union. which allows our children and grandchildren to die tomorrow on other fronts, that's all, that's how civilization was created, collective security, that's why it's called collective, in general, because everyone reports, we're not switzerland, switzerland says, we don't want anywhere quit, we die, we are a neutral country , sorry, uh, we will help you, the red cross, the olympic committee, you can put everything on us, as long as we are not bombed, we are not touched, we are not conquered, everything, uh, everyone, fine , may ukraine be like switzerland. we won't be able to play, everything has been lost, mr. vitaly, and you already mentioned the red sea, and indeed

the situation here has been very difficult for some time due to the fact that the yemeni houthis have actually blocked and attacked civilian shipping, it is difficult even now count it probably, the conversation with economists should be more specific, about how much of the world economy in general depends on the stability of the situation in the red sea. i know for a fact that you believe that instability there can shake the world much more than even russia's war against ukraine. tomuetska channel, the channel has already halved its trade, well, what can i say. if we take into account that the actual attack on the yemeni houthis in order to ease the situation in the red sea, in particular, took place simultaneously with, probably, during the stay of rishi sunak in the carriage of the ukrzaliznytsia train on his way to kyiv, where he signed some security assurances for us, and for himself in the future. could this speak

of... some special determination of great britain, which may be followed by other countries, but the united states will now sort things out, find some kind of internal political compromise regarding migration policy there, something else, and vote for what we need, well and not only to us, germany will give birth and give taurus, just like that, how do we get drones, stormshadows and scalps, great britain and france itself, can we consider that this one... it has finally moved, maybe more actively than it was before, and that britain is this locomotive, well britain definitely is such a real impetus for other countries to take more active actions, but it did not happen today, britain has always been like this, this is its historical role since the second world war, when britain failed once in 1938, during the munich games , we are still atonement. a mistake

of prime minister chamberlain, until now, all that we, in so-so, in which we live, is the world created by munich, then britain tried to justify and correct this mistake, and it is still doing it, but you understand the point , it's just that the number of conflicts is increasing, it 's dangerous, look, we already have two constant wars now, and how many today, we have the 689th day, i'll stop already. to be honest, but we have another calendar, i think today is the 98th day of the war in the middle east, right, as far as i know i remember, well, less , but in the middle east, it has been going on for much longer than, in general , it was possible to calculate, so, well, so now the war is about 99, tomorrow 100 days,

so... now, so what is happening with the houthis, this is what the secretary of state blink calls metastases, uh, true, this conflict in the middle east, then we will see what will happen around taiwan, how far the west will have enough resources to put out the entire fire, you know, in such a number that we understand , that in the west they started to talk and... there are small cuts here here and here, and by the way, not so small, i apologize, because if this was a war in a country that was four to five times smaller than ukraine, well, it could be a small increase, but it is not small, these 20% of the territory of ukraine, which are occupied by russia, how many european countries could be located on this territory, do you understand? we are talking about

the baltic countries, that russia could attack the baltic countries if they were not in nato, and the territory of the baltic countries, it seems to me, is less than the territory of 20% of ukraine occupied by russia. and this is also an important point, so in this regard, of course, the west is trying to resist, but in the conditions of the electoral cycle, both president biden and the prime minister are so. will defend their power this year, and everything is almost clear with prime minister sunik, his political career is ending, i generally think that this may be the last years of the conservative party's existence. listen, they bet everything on brexit to knock the table out of the chairs, the chair from under the feet of the british populists from the great independence party britain, and in principle everything was done correctly.

the only thing that is not clear is that the moment the british public say they don't like brexit, which they have now because a large majority of people feel that brexit has disappointed them, they will blame it not on the independence party, which no one remembers this nigel farage, this whole company of freaks, and the conservatives who deceived them, and the fact that sunok invited the last prime minister of great britain to his government... and great britain was considered unknown capacitive part david cameron's european union, it says a lot that we understand that david cameron made a fatal mistake in the history of his country, a fatal one. well, now it will be a serious change of political elites, and i generally assume that in the future...