yes, the ccp was created as a military council for taiwan, and most of the generals who joined this military council, people who are specialists in military operations in the taiwan strait, they explained the possibility of confrontation by saying that sidjilpin would need something to justify his stay on the third term as the general secretary of the central committee of the party of the president of the people's republic of china, and that reunification with taiwan can be such an excuse. uh, according to my observations in the seat of pina. there were problems with personnel policy, i.e. those people whom he appointed to military positions did not live up to his expectations, because they did not cope with the tasks he set before them, and this led to purges in the upper echelons of power in the autumn the minister of defense and the head of the missile forces were changed, this may also be indirectly related to the leak of information. which happened to be about the internal

security secrets of china, which got into the hands of the americans, and at the end of the summer , sometime in august, it seems, in the american the press had information that there was a defector, and he shared certain secrets, and all this provoked, let's say , the crisis of this political structure, or rather the military-political structure that controls the armed forces and the people's liberation army of china, and this is the pretext. firstly, review its leadership, i mean the army, and also review your approaches to foreign policy and to relations with the countries of the region and also to relations with the united states, this is my personal version. and you believe that the minister of defense china, now the former lishengfu could sneak into the united states, i have seen such information, is it pure conspiracy? no, i think it's pure conspiracy theory. i think such

people are not allowed to escape, if we talk about, yes, yes, please, the carrier was , it seems, someone of the same level, a family member, one of the high officials, but not in the ministry of defense, but it seems in the missile forces. and in principle, if we talk about how relations between pokino and washington can develop in the future, we can say that xijin ping now, like vladimir putin, he can take a break until november. united states presidential election? i think he has already chosen this strategy, and the signs of it are, firstly, that he has taken a course to improve relations with the united states, and secondly, that there is a view in the media that china's economy is not in the best shape form, i would like to emphasize that it is not in crisis and that it is not degrading there, but its prospects are assessed as not

the best, yes, this is the first point, and the second point is related to the fact that in connection with changing the leadership of china's armed forces , it will have to revise its military, let's say, strategy or doctrine for some time , strengthen it, modify it according to new challenges, and this will take time, so in the short term, the possibility of a conflict between taiwan and... china, i i don't think it's high, but how do you explain all these personnel problems that are happening in china now, the minister of foreign affairs disappears, then the minister of defense disappears, without any real explanations, but in principle it doesn't happen, and i don't remember i'm reaping such chaos in the personnel policy of the people's republic of china since manu's cultural revolution, i would attribute it to the fact that xi jinping had certain obligations to other members during his first two terms. by sex

members of the communist party of china, about maintaining the balance of power, about which of the internal groups or clans in china influences the policy of which department, and so on. after sizin pinn managed to consolidate his power for 10 years, after he managed to move into the conflict traditions for the third term, he has, let's say, resigned. from all these obligations and he began to reshuffle the structure of the country's political leadership in accordance with his preferences. and at this stage , apparently, some inconsistencies arose, which led to the fact that he had to approach his personnel policy in more detail and more meticulously. this is what i would associate these contradictions with, but again we don't have any. no reliable information, we

can only draw similar conclusions, using the course of events and no more, and historical experience. and you know this information about that, that's what i would relate to. of this contradiction, but again, we do not have any reliable information, we can only draw similar conclusions, using the course of events and nothing more, and historical experience. and you know this information about that, that's what i would connect these contradictions with, but again, we don't have any reliable information, we can only draw similar conclusions, using the course of events and nothing more, and historical experience. and you know this one information about that, that's what i would link to. of this contradiction, but again we do not have any reliable information, we can only make similar conclusions using the course of events and no more than historical experience. and you know this information that yes, to what extent they have a high degree of dependence on china, this is firstly, secondly,

how intensive communication and the level of trust they have between, well, between the two countries, i tried to track what how north korea is under... to all of this, and how much i understood, it is important for the north korean regime to preserve this freedom of maneuver, and this eccentricity, which it demonstrates in the international arena, is its internal, internal, let's say, drive, and not the result of beijing's influence on the behavior of the north korean dictator. thank you, thank you, mr. dmytro, dmytro yefreimov, an expert of the ukrainian association of experts, was in touch with us, we talked about the latest... events related primarily to the presidential elections in taiwan, to the change of power in this island entity, now we let's contact to the events taking place in russia, because we will talk with elia ponovelyov,

a russian oppositionist, former member of the state duma of the russian federation, greetings ilya, good evening, let's start our dialogue with a few words, about the russian poet and opponent of the regime of vladimir putin lev rubinstein, he died, he actually died today, he died from the consequences of a car accident that took place in moscow, he always consistently supported ukraine, was an opponent of russia's war against ukraine, and until the end he remained in russia the federation with such a hard and uncompromising position, and it really seems to me, deserves such a mention in our program. yes, he was a very good friend, and he said that he would go to the russian federation only in the case of an immediate threat to his life, well, that's exactly what happened, in fact, i think it was

just an accident, i looked at it many times footage of him being hit by a car, well... it doesn't matter - it doesn't matter why it happened like that, he really was a wonderful person, he didn't argue with anyone, and he stood firm on he was not afraid of his position, countering aggression, supporting ukraine, there are many other liberals there, they were afraid of this armed protest there and the opera, he was afraid of him, we were always friends, ah, we often met, well, that's how it happened. in general, what do you think is happening in russia itself today, where do such problems in the russian utility system come from, what is being talked about in

every region about problems with heating, about the fact that people are in the cold, this is strange, isn't it true for an energy state? well, but not at all surprising for russia. i remember, when we received the energy reform project, it was there 10 years ago, how many more than 10 years ago, and we warned then that the same thing will happen, because if everything is privatized and given to people who do not invest any money in modernization and to restore the equipment, well, that's how it will be. and it's just that now it's a bit more severe frosts here and that 's what happens, what happened, i think the main thing here is how the russians will react to it,

well, i also remember there, probably there 15 years ago , one of my allies novosibirsk region won the election solely because it was the same... an accident in such a small town of bertsk next to novosibirsk, then it was enough for people to vote against against. authorities, i am afraid that in this case there will be no reaction, simply because people do not see any alternative, well, okay, if not this boiler room, not this authority, then who else, as far as it can be considered in principle that such so, i would say, simple economic events worsen the position of the government as such, or not greatly affects the authority of putin there , the attitude towards him, etc., it is very... it affects, but again, first of all, in politics it is important that there be an alternative, if there is one,

then people can say that putin is a fraud, but we will choose this one, we will support him, well, probably we will not even choose there, but we will support there during the revolution, well, but this alternative must be, if it is not there, well , they will say again, this is how badly we live, and everything, and nothing more, and i believe that this is exactly what will happen now, but well, it will happen to accumulate, and sooner or later the quantity will turn to quality, how do you generally evaluate this preparation for putin's election, well, they will try to create everything, if possible, so that nothing... happens, so that putin looks like a guarantor of stability, here, by the way, no, no,

it is not by chance that putin is personally reacting to all these incidents with communal infrastructure, he personally called dobrobyov there in the moscow region and personally gave instructions regarding the blackout in rostov, because it hits the main strategy of his election campaign, that he is a guarantor of stability. that he is the guarantor of security in the country, he has long ceased to be so, and on the contrary, he has long been the main source of instability and danger, but again there is no alternative, why now in the west they started talking about the need for negotiations with russia on the war, when putin himself does not show any interest in such negotiations, well, i believe that he is very much in favor of... i believe that he is sending many different

signals through those channels of communication, which , of course, exist even between there moscow and the united states and other countries, i believe that he is interested now, but he wants to look like an alpha male, i don't need it, let the ukrainians be there, but in reality the situation is the opposite. he needs a pause, he needs to resume arms production, he needs to recruit new troops to the front, and he has this race now and he needs stability, so i think he is interested in that, and the west , well, also wants to achieve any result in this year there will be elections in the united states and elections in great britain

britain, and politicians, of course, are interested in what to show the population, they see, we have achieved something. but on the other hand, putin himself, we have always said, is waiting for the presidential elections in the united states, hoping that he will have better communication with donald trump than with joseph biden. is it so? well, i believe that such sentiments exist in the kremlin, eh. but no one can guarantee that donald trump will be there. by the way, i'm more inclined to think that hale's nickname might be there. well, let's see. all the same, if there is an opportunity to use biden's mood, and biden 100% needs results, it will be very difficult there, this election campaign. so, well, why wouldn't the kremlin try to use that, if you talk

about the mood in the russian leadership itself, you see now some understanding that there is a certain weariness in the russian elite with this war, or are they just going to wait for something to decide as a result of putin? and vitaly, there is the same problem, they are very tired, they want changes, they want the lifting of sanctions, they... want to live as before, they don't interested, of course, in dismantling putinism as a system, but putin got them, and of course, that's the main thing. sources of instability, they understand that, well, but what is the alternative, if someone, someone over there starts a mutiny, well, of course they will support him when they see that he, that he is winning, but to do something themselves, well, it is so very dangerous, it's scary, so

the question here is who will make the first move and what it will be, that's why i'm saying that... most likely it will be some black lib or something, well, something there must be, there must be, a push in the right direction, and after that the whole system can be destroyed very, very quickly, and how do you perceive the state of the russian armed forces in general in this situation, here i saw the reasoning that russia can really gain there ... any number of reservists to the front, it is true, but it is not possible to train them so quickly, and it takes time precisely to train people to be real soldiers at the front, and not cannon fodder, because cannon fodder yaso in such a situation does not make the weather, well, i think that the most difficult times for the russian army, they have already passed, that is

, the period when all the elite... units were actually destroyed in russia, and the news was formed, this is already in the past, they are gradually learning, they are gradually gaining combat experience, and most importantly, the main factor of danger, that the military-industrial complex. strengthens a little and begins to produce more and more, well, there may not be very modern, but all the same military equipment there and what they are currently using there at the front, and that is why the west must understand that this process, which cannot be turned

back in the future, if putin starts to produce more and more weapons, and... even if the west can somehow convince the ukrainians and make a truce, then he will go to the baltic countries, because there is no such stop button, and in principle there cannot be, because the termination of such military production in the future, the return of soldiers to their homes in the army. they said a very high salary, at home they will receive about zero there, and this will be an increase social tension, and that is why he will simply be forced to make a new offensive. but let's discuss it in more detail, you are talking about an attack on the baltic countries, by the way, i heard these thoughts from president

zelensky, but the question arises, are we really ready to consider the possibility of a conflict between russia and nato, how it should take place. the baltic countries do not exist by themselves, they are part of the north atlantic alliance, there are troops of other western countries, how will it look in practice? well, the troops of other western countries are there, they are very small, and i believe that putin's calculation, it is very simple, and one throw, and then it stops, and then inside the block. the conversation begins , what to do about it, start a nuclear war, or just not recognize the occupation of the baltic countries, just as it was not recognized there for the previous 50 years, during the soviet era, and i believe that there will be many countries, like germany, like france, well, as i will say,

what kind of nuclear war are you talking about here, and it will simply be the end of the bloc. that's exactly what nato is for, i think it's a calculation on putin's part, and there may be an even simpler option, capture of the suvalkyi corridor under the banner of the unification of the territory with kaliningrad, the protection of the mountain pass that connects belarus with kaliningrad, it is generally a local action there, and there, for example, hungary. will say: well, guys, there should be a police operation, a counter-terrorist operation, it takes place throughout the territory of lithuania, in order to protect the railway, you need the whole of lithuania. capture, i'm sorry, it doesn't pass through suvalki, it passes through lithuania, no, no, well, the suvalki corridor is possible for this, for this to use, well, we, i understand, there vilnius

is generally 50 km from the belarusian border, some pmc there can capture half of vilnius there, well, just like that with one throw, and then what are you going to do with it... share , bomb vilnius, declare war , well, nuclear weapons again, i think there will be many different nato members who will be against it, and that 's the same thing that mr. putin is interested in, and why don't you think, it's possible that it could even happen if russia joins to the territory of the baltic countries, i personally do not believe it, i tell you right away, yes, but no we will support your version of why there cannot be a war by conventional means, well , if russia... knows that nato has nuclear weapons and nato knows that russia has nuclear weapons, it is possible to fight without using nuclear weapons, i am not sure that the russian army here will have such a heroic struggle with the armies of the western regions,

well, you understand, well, first of all, here you need to think the way the kremlin thinks, in the kremlin, well, 100%, i just guarantee it, they think that there the americans... are there germans, that they will not fight, ah, that they will not will want to lose their soldiers on foreign territory, eh, who can fight , the poles can fight, well, yes, this is the most powerful army in europe now, but if the ukrainians don't want to help the baltic countries again, i don't understand who will fight there, well. .. on the other hand, president biden says that the united states will not give up a single meter of nato territory, he has already said this many times, well, it ’s like in that joke, you also say, well, i

think that he does not believe in it, and he just does everything possible so that it is not necessary to check, as a politician, he is forced, then he will also be forced to say something completely different that he needs protection'. the interests of the united states and the security of the territory and that there would be no nuclear war and that he simply cannot declare war on the russian federation, but that would be the end of the north atlantic alliance, the north atlantic alliance was created so that its members would not enter the territory troops from moscow, the whole point of nato in this is nothing of the kremlin, so this is exactly the goal of the kremlin, exactly, this is the whole point of this operation, why... putin has the territory of latvia, estonia or lithuania, he doesn't need it, he needs it to destroy nato. and you can find out why then, why ukraine

should join nato, when russia can absolutely calmly enter the territory of nato member states. where then are these dream guarantees of security, which we have been talking about here for as many as 10 years in a row? well, that hasn't happened to the baltic countries yet, right? and, i also... believe that nato protection is a somewhat dubious thing, but, well, a constructive conversation has begun, it is better, even better than nothing, and it is all the same factor of deterring the aggressor, and if it can be done, then it must be done, well , you see, as soon as we approach formal logic, the position immediately changes, including yours. no, why, it is the same , it’s just that now the ukrainian army is the most powerful, it’s just that if it had the same weapons that are in nato countries, then ukraine

would simply not need to join the alliance, and why then this weapon cannot be used to hit russia if russia attacks nato without any nuclear weapons? well, the west he is intimidated, but we, we see them. how do they feel about it, and for them now it is not their war, it is the war of the ukrainians, they are ready to help the ukrainians, but to consider it their war, that is not happening, their war will start in riga, you know, our minigi will sit in the league, like that they said, the russians, and they need to be convinced of this, they are not ready for it now, and in general, in the end , the easiest way... to avoid this war is to change putin, it is to destroy the political regime in moscow, but no washington, nor in london, nor in berlin,

now admit thank you, thank you ilya, ilya ponomerov, a russian oppositionist, former member of the state duma, was our last interlocutor on this broadcast, and i am vitaly portnikov, thank you, friends, and i invite you to stay with espresso, good luck. on january 22, at 7:30 p.m. , taras chubai and songs sung by all of ukraine will be presented on the stage of the lviv opera. the special guest of the concert is the lviv men's academic choir chapel dudaryk. karabaskom tickets, live sound. there are 20% discounts on anticataral in psylshynyk, pam and oschad pharmacies.

glory to isa, let's be careful, because today , on the spur of the moment, really on the spur of the moment to lviv, to the lviv premiere, the actress rima zyubina, who modestly says on her facebook page, the author of digital content, nothing, with the premiere directly to us rimma naskok, congratulations, congratulations, actually, it's not me saying, it's... there facebook wrote that i'm some author of some digital, some content, this, i still don't know how to live with it, is it good or bad, youtube star, insta mom, no-no, no, maybe save it, no-no, no, i don’t do it, no, and this is at the beginning of the great war, i started doing streams, i've never done this, but i did them at night, what night, no, i'm not there, no, i'm on the train to odessa, i couldn't go to instagram for a very long time, i didn't understand what was

there.