b, track two, parallel, where you can demonstrate success, but there is one nuance , we need solutions, now, well, the so-called security guarantees, which is positive, the fact that the authorities have abandoned such statements, switched to normal vocabulary, that this is about the agreement on cooperation in the field of security, and i confirm once again, as a specialist, as a person who participated in... talks and signed documents, it is quite broad, covers many areas, there are details, that is, it is a good agreement, but this exchange of concepts, which we have been feeding us for several months, is fragile names, replaces concepts, i think that this caused such a misunderstanding today, that's why you need to communicate with people like an adult, you need to come up with some stories, that's firstly, secondly, now you're right. asked

a question, but in this case it is necessary to talk about the essence, i actually found a lot of positives there, and the authorities have already told about these positives, i may not even duplicate them, but there are certain points, well, you know that the ukrainian side insisted on the ratification of this kind of agreement, it is public, why, because when the executive power changes in one or another country, the attitude towards this... type of agreement may change, in fact, from the point of view of our legislation and the vienna convention on the law of international treaties and our law on international treaties, this is an absolutely legitimate agreement, since signing, as it was stated there, it works for two, here and ratification, i see, was not even envisaged by two parties, but now the question arises, what we have ok with britain, we think that even labor, who can to come to power in the next... elections, they

will continue this, because we know their attitude is also positive towards such security issues with ukraine, and will the same agreement work without us ratification? i'm not sure. that is, if a similar text of this kind is signed with the executive power of the united states, then i am not sure that in the future it cannot undergo, well, some changes in the text, but simply in attitude. if there will be. will change, say, the power of the democrats there to the republicans, well, i mean the presidential elections in the first place, so we it would be important for this type of agreement to establish a bilateral ratification mechanism, and the fact that it is not here is really a weakness, but one more point, read the text carefully, you will find a lot of interesting points, maybe not necessary to ratify, well, for example, i found out that ukraine will...

lead an active fight against corruption in the civil society of ukraine, i did not understand how it is and what it is, what kind of fight against corruption in civil society it is, but there is such a moment , i understand why it arose, and it arose from from the ukrainian side, but should such agreements include such things that will later be ratified, so here it is necessary to start from this text and understand that really our desires are not always... can support being partners, this is the first position, the second, with each country there must still be an individual approach, and from this standard it is now necessary to push back, as from the bottom, that is, a low point and try to get more, and the third is that the issue of security, the security umbrella, security guarantees remained open, it remained open, and we now clearly see that the rhetoric... regarding this track b will not

work, and this should be understood and has already been understood in the president's office, so it is not surprising that the president had a meeting regarding nato membership and additional now there is activity on this, this is a good signal, the only thing is that when the resources are dispersed on two tracks, and on bilateral agreements, and on securing its membership in nato, i am afraid that we will have enough personnel and diplomatic resources. financial in order to introduce all this at the same time. mr. valery, a tell me, please, did you not get the impression after reading the document in an accessible format that these are all the assurances we are talking about, they relate to aggression against ukraine in the future, that is, more opportunities to use british technologies, military production, and so on and so forth , both on land, on water and in the air, we will have only in the future.

but with regard to the current conflict, somehow it is quite optical, well, i think that here it seems to me that there is confirmation of the approach and... there are some points that speak of the possibility in case of the next aggression, yes , i will tell you even more why this agreement, well, it is quite so strange from the point of view of international law, because as a rule, international agreements are signed, security agreements, they are signed without having in mind any specific subject, in this case it is , of course, an agreement that means the russian one. russian war against ukraine. there are no other risks that, in principle, may apply to ukraine in the next 10 years, which this agreement considers before a possible revision. i i think this is also a weakness, because, it may sound strange, but, er, well, risks in

ukraine, er, in relation to external aggression can come not only from russia. this is, firstly, secondly, if the conditional russia will already be there... well, it will happen that it will be fragmented, and it will be other subjects of international relations, well, the agreement provides for changes, the agreement provides for correction there, so here in in principle, i would not be afraid that this would somehow blur britain's current approaches to helping ukraine, on the contrary, i think that it even strengthens it, and this is a testimony this is the availability of concrete figures there 2.5 billion pounds of aid, which is very actually the best. what is in such agreements is specifics. tell me, what is heard about the vote in the congress on aid to ukraine, how do you feel about the development of events? i have already said many times, and, well, this bp

continues, every day we are there validol kavat, whether it will be or not. let's start with what was said a long time ago, including on your broadcast, i think we will discuss it ... that there will be no decision before february, and that it was already known, but i said it again, if i am not mistaken, at the end of october, there is an explanation, and now it has been reinforced by concrete actions, the process, unfortunately, is not going in the best scenario, but how am i trying to explain this scenario, this the american approach, which... when the stakes rise to the maximum level, well, in some kind of political discourse, and then at the last moment, before the deadline, the parties find a compromise, as if from a decision, well, with their own part of the benefits that

they squeezed out during the discussion period, from something similar is happening now in this matter, i am alarmed by one thing that actually. but the white house and the current administration cut off any steps back and bet on pressure, that's what it's about, for example, the democrats gave up the law on lendlease, now i hear different opinions, but i read the american laws, in this package in ndda in the defense budget for the 24th year is this item 1224. it has disappeared, that is, there is no extension of the lend-lease law, that is, this instrument will not exist now, at least until it is adopted another solution, secondly, they can take more from the warehouses and sell the weapons at the residual price, even if there is no funding, this

may also be why they are declaring now sharply that they have nothing left to supply to ukraine, do not take it as the truth , this is not true, this is... only a part of the truth, because they put so much pressure on the republicans, they have something to supply, only the mechanisms will be different, it will be necessary to buy at a low price, lower, but buy, the third, no one mentions the fact that 300 million have already been laid in the defense budget for ukraine, which means that at least this year there will be several such tranches of 150-200 million, maybe, the problem is something else, the problem is... how they look in america, in washington and not only in the white house continuation of military operations in the 24th year, the main thing is whether they are ready to make corrections to their strategy and provide ukraine in a concentrated and rapid manner in the first

half of this year with sufficient military equipment and resources and cooperation with europe, so that there are changes in the very course of the war, so that. .. positional war, which is turning into the russian-ukrainian war, well, such a trench, to turn it into a maneuverable one, for this we need solutions, including this package for 61.4. that is, it is not about what america supports, does not support, it is about how we we see together the strategy of victory this year, the de-occupation of ukraine, and now the republicans are doing a very dangerous thing, that they began to delay the decision until the primaries, in new hampshire they first spoke, then they say, let's wait for big tuesday, where more than 800 voters will be . determine, well, choose more than 800 voters in many states, it's march 5, and

now they want to drag out, moreover, this small part of them, which was marginal, and now has become dominant, called, so to speak, to the speaker of the house of representatives and told him, gave an ultimatum to the point was the other day , if he won’t remove the issue, it ’s help, or rather not help, but a shutdown, well, that is, the prevention of funding, if he doesn’t continue to act harshly like this, then his grace, mr. valery, what they can now replace, so that's the story, it is it will still tighten, well, at least until the beginning of february, and i think, probably still. and tell me, whatever is happening, it is actually happening in taiwan at these hours, we are talking about the already counting of votes in the elections there, there is an understanding that most likely the current vice president, who is perceived by china, will win. as a dangerous separatist, what is happening now in the middle east, in particular in

the red sea basin, and we understand how important the situation there is for the whole world, for trade routes, first of all, and definitely the situation in ukraine, all this in the complex can play a role in the fact that each of the locations i have named now, in fact, on the world map, receives its support from the united states, or are we already forced to speak exclusively for our own interests. you asked the question on more than one show, i will try to answer briefly: in the us defense doctrine, it is written how to act in two regional wars, which means that they cannot act in three regional wars, what we see now is not yet regional wars, it's just theirs, well such a deployment, therefore, let's say so, in the conditions, if there is a war in europe and it goes beyond the borders of ukraine. and such a scenario is possible, if in the middle east, iran

will enter the war against israel, and the two koreas will also be at war, at the same time , the usa is unlikely to be able to effectively act militarily in these three directions, so i think that this is what the adversaries are trying to achieve of the united states, but there is good news here, first, you can see the development. the situation in the middle east, it seems to me that very serious steps have been taken there in order to stop the escalation , the unfolding of the conflict into the regional, iran after demonstrating such a strike, against which neither china, nor russia, and now attention, and now blinken , the secretary of state is meeting with the head of the international department of the central committee of the party of china in washington, you understand, that they all gave the go-ahead to... for iran, well, iranians by proxy. russia issued a condemnation, mr. vadali, that, russia

issued a condemnation, was a statement from the russian ministry of foreign affairs. vitaly, statements of the ministry of foreign affairs russia is a propaganda leaflet, a propaganda leaflet. and i watched the meeting of the security council, the un, where russia wrung out as much as it could. and the same benz. it's just rude to ukraine, all this is related to ukraine, there russia only refrained from supporting the joint resolution, and china supported, well, they abstained, yes, they told their excuses there, that is, they explained why they abstained, in fact they supported the blows of the pohosi, you understand, no matter how cynical you are, what is the difference between freedom of navigation in the red sea and in... black, in money, in russian money, yes , that’s why you see when everyone’s interests coincide,

when interests coincide, and there really is 15% of all trade, and china is interested, and russia, and here they are, when interests coincide, everything, they they forgot about everything, the only thing that russia is afraid of, and they tried to push this remark into the resolution so that this decision would not be spread to other regions of the world, that is, as it is called. and that is, we are in the red sea this way, in the black and south china differently, this was the joint position of russia and china, that is, here that's all, that is, this is a very, very revealing moment for us. where we have an explanation for china's interests, there everything can go completely, now, going back to taiwan, it's a long story, there are too many factors to evaluate it all now, come on, i'm still not ready to say all this at once, because let's wait for the composition of the parliament, because there the kuomintang, together with others, can seize control,

despite the fact that the president is the third time the same party wins, well, conditionally speaking, and what... is ready to oppose mainland china, but nevertheless, the situation can go different directions, the only thing i can say is that the key point of the development of a serious conflict will be in south asia, ugh, everyone, everyone, everyone is going there, the only question is, everyone will be thinking how to end the war in europe before this pri'. it will be beneficial for china that the war in europe does not end, that the usa is distracted from europe, and it will be beneficial for the usa, well, i hope, to quickly put an end to the issue of russian aggression against ukraine. i think that it should unite europe and the usa now in reaching the this year some specific goals, well, i

hope so, because then it will be difficult, well , and the last point, actually, those who say that change in the united states. can lead to a change in serious foreign policy, they are right, and the issue is not only donald trump , the issue is that if the republican president changes, the administration will change dramatically, there will no longer be the same conditions that existed during the previous period of president trump , he will immediately bring such, well, abrupt changes in the secretary of state, the minister of defense, this will be an administration that will start with the fact that it will break its commitments with europe, well at least they will... announce withdrawal from nato and other things, and will shift the focus of attention to south asia, why? we, we just, you know, think that europe is more important to the average american than asia, nothing like that. since the second world war, every american knows that the attack took place on pearl harbor, the attack took place from the west coast, from the west coast,

from the sea, from the ocean, and the third line of defense of the united states, well, let's call it conventionally, passes along taiwan. japan, taiwan, south korea , the islands, this is the circle that the generals drew in their time after the second world war as an important line of resistance to an attack on the united states, and for them it is closer, they gave the region of europe, and this, and these are such realities that we don't see it on the map , you know why, because our maps are all eurocentric, but we have them in the map, but look at the maps in the usa, in the maps in the usa there is the usa, on... in the center, and this map, where is the usa in the center, it is not at all like the ones we saw in our schools or universities there, look at the globe and each of the globes can unfold your map, you want ukraine in the center , you want the usa, and china has maps, and you want australia, there are such maps too, and you want australia, and china should map china, the centers of the world, you understand,

if you look at this map with china, it in general, it is a strange map, one day it should be shown to people, that we do not have it at all... our imagination changes about everything in this world, that is why everyone acts very cynically and in their own interests, and now the position of china has shown where china is interested, it turns out , you can change your position, not the same as with regard to ukraine, thank you, mr. valery, for including, for important points, valery chaly, extraordinary plenipotentiary ambassador of ukraine to the usa from 2015 to 2019, well, we pick up the topic, we are actually talking about south asia and not only. mykhailo yakubovych, orientalist, candidate of historical sciences, researcher at the department of oriental studies at the university of freiburg, germany. congratulations, mr. mykhailo, glory to ukraine. glory to the heroes, good evening. so, let's start with these attacks .

to tame the yemeni khossians. by the way, i read today. one of the yemeni newspapers, continuing the conversation we had with mr. valery, mr. mykhailo, and it was written there that yemen is at the center of world civilization, that it is a country that combines islam with yemeni values, and that everyone understands the role of yemen in world history, well, that is, they dug up a kind of red sea, of course, and that's all, can people with such a vision of civilization be somehow stopped by missile attacks? well, in fact , the thesis is not so far from the truth, if we we talk about the arab civilization, we know about the adnan and kikan tribes of the north and south. it is known that the southern tribes , arab at one time in the pre-islamic period , really played an almost key role in the civilization of the arabian peninsula, that is, these

countries, such as the united arab emirates, saudi arabia, bahrain, and others developed, and went far ahead as a result of the sale natural resources, in fact, they took over such a baton from yemen, but now we are talking about something else. in fact, if you think about the recent history of yemen, i... about the civil one war after 2011, because now yemen is divided into three regions, in fact, one under the control of the usa, saudi arabia, the other of the emirates, and finally the houthi part. so, in 2015, saudi arabia and the emirates inflicted very strong and powerful blows on the name, much more powerful than those that the americans are currently inflicting on the port of hudaydah and other regions, but this did not stop the houthis. to take over the most densely populated part of the country, to retain power there, to rebrand, to form a government of national rescue, which, of course, is not

many admit and almost no one, but they are trying to show that they allegedly not only correspond to the interests of the yemeni people, but also, well, in fact, represent the state at the international level, and these strikes were in some ways demonstrative. somewhat cautionary, it is clear that they may have a continuation, their goal is not to question the currently houssite power in the western part of the south-western part of the arabian peninsula, but rather simply to drive them away from the shore so that they cannot launch there various means damage to civilian ships, and it is clear that they do not pose any significant military threat to the allied... state, so these goals can be achieved with such strikes by driving the houthis a little deeper into the country, but will there be further

support for that, uh, actually , the presidential leadership council, as it is called, which governs the eastern part of yemen, or the emirate of southern yemen, well , here is the question of how the situation will develop further, but these are internal rather things. which are unlikely to have any echo far outside, that is, i would say that here, well , we have such a confrontation, which has defined goals and, but without a ground operation , there can be no question of overthrowing the houthis , absolutely, uh, mr. mykhailo, please tell me, we understand correctly that when we talk about strikes by the united states of great britain with the support of allies against the yemeni houthis, we are talking about a strike in general. by proxy, it is the iranians in the region, and in fact the yemeni houthis are a terrorist group that almost immediately supported

hamas in its struggle with israel at first in fact, october 2023, how does this episode fit into and affect the development of the situation between hamas and israel in general, and whether it is worth linking them at all. two episodes. they should be linked before everyone with the actions of iran. in this case, first of all, the houthis from the very beginning, and this movement appeared in its modern meaning in 2004, set for themselves one of the main slogans, namely the fight against israel and, in general, against the jews as such. that is, it is deeply such not only a pro-islamist, but a radical right-wing judophobic movement. they even have a slogan. there is such a thing, but we see what it is the first echo of the conflict between israel and palestine, which went beyond the borders

of that particular region, that is, it is not lebanon that attacks israel, although there are some clashes there, but not on the same scale as the 2006 war, and here iran just played a little bit in other words, first of all, iran is playing them specifically in the persian gulf, and this, by the way, has now caused a corresponding reaction from the arab countries. of the military in ukraine, that is, it is clear that without american access there, iran will become very, very strong, and this agreement between saudi arabia and iran, even in some ways this war, well, not that it is called into question, but conditions have been created in which it is possible that everything will be completely different, even though it is saudi. and despite the fact that at one time they fought against the houthis, they fought not very successfully, let's be honest, for now it has refrained from any direct interventions, although

it has supported... the actions of this coalition, that is, there is such a zone unfolding here somewhere, where iran, despite sanctions, despite significant restrictions, still tries to press, and press very significantly, not only in lebanon, but also not only in the gulf of patsa, we can also see it in yemen , that is, it was such a demonstration of power that in the event of which iran can, in principle, create a threat up to the complete closure of babelmande. which strait, which essentially connects the red sea with the indian ocean and through which a very large part of cargo passes, well, that is, it is one of the main key, it is the key trade route of the world in general, and therefore here iran is in the position of such a beneficiary, which despite everything holds on and somewhere also calls for an appropriate dialogue, on appropriate reactions, tries to take into account

and... interests, and probably further the situation will move to the persian gulf, when iran will continue to intercept tankers there, there is currently a dispute between iran and the united arab emirates, because the emirates claim three islands there, there it's not so much the islands that are important, but the oil deposits near them, that is, this is such a long-term game that has already been going on in the region for many years, and this position is only one of ... such pages in this whole game, and please tell me, did i understand correctly , sir michael, that in fact the state of south yemen , which once existed before the unification of the two parts of yemen, has been recreated, is governed by a parallel government, and does not take any part in these stories, because we saw that sana'a was bombed, and aden, this former capital south yemen, it was once a semi-communist state that was in close relations with the soviet union, no one touches it, of course. in their lines, even

scientific socialism was proclaimed as their ideology, and now it's not bad enough, mr. mykhailo, we have problems with communication, and i now i am very much asking my colleagues to get in touch with mykhailo yakobovych, if we have time, orientalist, candidate of historical sciences, researcher of the oriental studies department of the university of freiburg from germany, very important question from vitaly portnikov, are we there? its homogeneity in general, yes, well, it is not absolutely not realistic , this homogeneity is because, let's say, on the island of socotra now there are generally troops of the united arab emirates, and by the way, there is also an interesting thing here, that in fact southern yemen was actually recreated , mr. mykhailo, you are us, yeah, yeah, well, that'll end our our discussion about southern yemen, he is now, well, he is, but he, he's essentially an emirati proxy, but since the emirates... on

much better terms with the west, than iran, it is a territory under the control of the west, despite the fact that it is not very populated, but the problem is that the khosats pass through the port, and even that border of saudi arabia has access to the red sea, and there are islands there , according to the highest part of it as well, and they can easily come from there some even well to attack with relatively primitive means of defeat. civil shipping, and the island of sohotra, in particular, is almost under the direct control of the emirates, because there is a military base of the emirates there, another issue is that due to a certain effort to maintain the balance of power, the emirates are not ready for a serious war there, but they are interested in the strikes of the coalition, of course, in order to weaken the hosts, another question is that there are really not only external factors, in fact the so-called

hadramout of yemen, these are two... parts of the same yemen, that is, the north and the south, is a long war that began after the fall of the imamate regime in yemen in 1962, and then the soviet union, accordingly, also invested a lot of different regional separatist movements there. mr. mykhailo, very briefly at the end, i have to ask what the escalation of sunni and shiite confrontation will mean for the region. world, in general, this confrontation is going on, in fact , for a long time, different lines are going on, but now there are a lot of movements, pro-islamic, such as hamas, or even islamist, such as those the houthis themselves, they try to appeal to such pan-arab solidarity or even pan-islamic solidarity, for example, hamas emerged from the muslim brotherhood as a sunni movement.