the so-called hadramout yemen is two parts of yemen itself, that is, the north and the south - this is a long war that began after the fall of the imamate regime in yemen in 1962, and then the soviet union, accordingly, also invested a lot of different regional separatist movements there. mr. mykhailo, very briefly at the end, i have to ask what escalation will mean for the region. tion of the sunni and shia world in general, this confrontation is going on, in fact, it has been going on for a long time, different lines are going, but now there are a lot of pro-islamic movements, such as hamas or islamists, even such as the houthis themselves, they try to appeal to such pan-arab solidarity or even pan-islamic solidarity, for example, hamas emerged from the muslim brotherhood, as sunni. and this does not prevent him

from maintaining relations with hizbollah and with iran, the houthis also belong to moderate shiism, to zaydism, but they also try to appeal to the slogans of arab nationalism and to islamism in such a broad sense, that is why there are a lot of movements here somewhere , which are now sunni and shiite, they understand that purely confessional it does not bring the desired results, and under the slogans of such , you know, islamic unity, they are trying to sell very different kinds of projects to broad sections of the population, of such supposedly global importance, taking into account the poverty of yemen, it is the poorest arab country and the dependence on humanitarian aid from various forces, in principle this happens very often, which is why there are problems with mobilization and recruitment. they have no strength.

thank you, mykhailo yakubovych, orientalist, candidate of historical sciences, research fellow, oriental studies department freiburg university from germany, was in touch with us. we 're going to take a short break now, but we'll be back, so stay tuned. there are discounts on anticataral, 20% in psyllium, pam and oskad pharmacies. greetings, this is svoboda live on radio svoboda. we have already come to the snake itself. the following shots may shock you. news from the scene. live kamikaze drone attacks. political analytics. objectively and meaningfully. there is no political season. exclusive interviews, reports from the hottest points of the front. shot. freedom of life - frankly and

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and we continue the saturday political club, your favorite part of the conversation with vitaly portnikov on the hottest. topics and news this week. it's just that now we are talking about the counting of votes in the presidential elections in taiwan. the current vice-president laichinte is leading there. international media reports that he represents the ruling democratic progressive party, he is 64

years old. he previously said that taiwan is already a sovereign state, and it is not necessary to declare its independence at all. china generally calls it. a dangerous separatist, but we understand that the fate of taiwan is not decided solely by presidential elections. mr. vitaly, in your opinion, what is this vote about based on its previous results? you know, i think it's to some extent about the stability of the mood of the citizens, because the fact that the democratic progressive party managed to retain the office of the president, uh, this is the first such result in history. of the republic of china in taiwan since the beginning of democratic processes, because we also have to remember that it did not happen immediately. today, by the way, is another anniversary of the death of general musachen keisha, the founder of the kuomintang in its current taiwan form, and as you understand, during the reign of

chiang kai-shek, there was no such democracy in taiwan. and there was, in principle, a one-party regime of the kuomintang party, but when... "president chenkesha's son jiang qinggo, who you know had soviet experience, was yermalayev in the soviet union, had a russian wife from the soviet union, who became the first lady of taiwan, this such an amazing story, and with all the hatred of the soviet union for taiwan, there was a russian first lady for many years, he started the process of democratization, it ended in the end with the defeat of the kuomintang in the presidential and parliamentary elections and at that time, the kuomintang democratic progressive party replaced each other in the management of the country, at least after two terms of the president from one country , the party won, usually the candidate of the other won. the current situation is completely different, although indeed the situation in

the parliamentary elections, as we talked about it with valery chaly, looks different as well, because according to the latest reports, which the newspaper taibay times shows, kuomintang. 52 seats in the parliament, a the democratic progressive party 51 seats, and eight seats behind another political party, the party that came third in the presidential election, the taiwan people's party, and that party, as you can see, now has a golden share in fact. tour of the taiwanese government, so a lot will depend on the position of the leaders of this party, on the position of this party in the parliament, it is headed by a famous businessman kay wenja, he died in taibe, ugh, while there is a losing

candidate from the khomeinidan party, he is the mayor new taipei, so this whole thing around the capital is actually happening, anyway, it 's really quite an interesting situation because everybody 's asking, what really...now there could be a situation where china attacks taiwan as a result of this election, i'm i don't think so, huh, because the following question arises: why exactly as a result of these presidential and parliamentary elections did the people 's republic of china have to attack taiwan, what changed in taiwan as a result of these elections, nothing, any other configuration of power, it would have created a new situation, that is the party leader won. who just on the last day of the election campaign said during a press conference: i will not be such a dangerous friend of the united states as volodymyr zelensky or benjamin netanyahu, no, i will be a peacemaker, i will be the one to negotiate with beijing, such a position naturally creates opportunities to put pressure on such

a politician, the question is not even in his own position, in how it will look from the side, well, and we know this from ukrainian experience, moscow began to put pressure on volodymyr zelenskyi from... the very first day of his stay a new president in office, and let's imagine that in 2019 volodymyr zelensky loses the election in the second round to petro poroshenko, that changes for russia, nothing, nothing, i'm not saying that russia is necessarily not on'. to ukraine, but it would be based on the stability of the situation in our country, the situation, of course, after the election of volodymyr zelenskyi as the president of ukraine, after the appearance of completely new people in the servant of the people party in the verkhovna rada of ukraine, turned, at least from the russian point of view, into a situation of complete turbulence, were created by themselves ukrainian voters created ideal conditions for the war that began in february 2022, taiwanese voters did not create these ideal conditions, this does not mean that war cannot happen. to be, it means that it is not the presidential and parliamentary elections that are the indicator,

the catalyst, yes, thank you for the word, the catalyst for such a conflict, now the next point is very important, it concerns november 2020 of the fourth year, the presidential election in the united states, so the question arises, we always say, the president of the russian federation is volodymyr putin will not agree on anything with ukraine before the presidential elections in the united states, he will look at the result. elections, on who will still win, on what the congress will look like, and this will already be the starting point when he will determine his next tactics in the war with ukraine, and what is the difference between the head of the people's republic of china, well, he also has can wait until november to figure out who he has to deal with, because one thing is biden, another thing is trump, trump, i would say, is aimed at confronting china, so you can make a mistake. "you can start a war , then wait for trump, who will act very differently in the south china sea and

in the taiwan strait than his predecessor, and the pressure that may come from trump and trump's determination in relation to the people's republic of china may be completely different, than biden's participation, so in this situation, i think xi jinping, even if he is planning some military action, he would like to play it safe, wait until november." and understand whether he can act by force, given the configuration that the us will have, and this is an important point, so in this regard , not much will change in the next months, there is another point when we compare the war between russia and ukraine for ourselves, we must understand that as a result of the war between russia and ukraine, serious economic cataclysms did occur, but not essential, huh. because, as john mccain once said, russia is

a gas station, so inadequate. what happens when we give up russian oil and russian gas is a serious problem, but it turned out not as even the europeans thought, that is, it turned out that you can completely calmly replace russian gas and live completely calmly, i will tell you more, there are... countries that have not given up russian pipeline gas, let's say hungary. well, i recently saw a publication according to which the money for gas that hungary pays today would be much less if it bought gas on the exchange, that is, the question arises, and what, in what, in what sense these energy exchanges , nothing particularly affected, russia itself... turned out to be not so sensitive to western sanctions, because it rebuilt its economy

, cooperation with asia, but the west did not feel anything so strongly in terms of energy prices and etc., now let's look at what will happen with taiwan and china, it's not oil and gas anymore, it's chips, semiconductors, and semiconductors, let's imagine that the war between china and taiwan will move to the territory of taiwan, by the way, the americans, as far as i understand ... are now planning just such a war, because it is believed that there was an approach before and it basically worked a lot ten years which emphasized that the taiwanese naval forces simply will not allow the chinese army to enter the territory of the republic of china on taiwan, that the chinese will be stopped already in a naval war. there is no such certainty now. china has significantly modernized and rebuilt its fleet and there is a danger. that the people's liberation army of china will be able to land on the territory

of the island, so taiwan is now turning into a fortress, a fortress on the territory of which there will be fierce battles between taiwan and china, and the taiwanese are ready for this, you know, that's what we said about khoi, who was a candidate from the kuomintang, and lost this election, so kooyu his last... election rally did not invite the last president of the republic of china from the kuomintang, mao ying-ji, why? because manju said that taiwan won't beat china anyway. ugh. this statement was enough, as well as ma's recent trip to china, to make hoi not want to see him at his campaign rally, even though this is a man who symbolizes the achievements and victories of the kuomintang, because he will say that we have different approaches to relations with china, so this is a consolidated position of the taiwanese

establishment, the positions of the democratic party and the kuomintang do not differ much here, that is, both political... forces do not declare independence, and this is already china's opinion that the progressive party is more separatist, and the kuomintang is less separatist, because the kuomintang has its roots in the mainland, uh, and all these people who ran the chinese communist party, they were all members of the kuomintang governing bodies, and mao zedong, and zhonglai, all the founders of kener, they were in the kuomintang, it there was a general national such party, but the democratic progressive party was created on its own. and therefore it no longer arouses much enthusiasm, but there is an absolutely accurate understanding in both of these leading parties that china must be resisted, and now imagine the fate of these enterprises, ugh, what will happen to the world economy, imagine one fine day, china destroys these enterprises simply

because missile strikes, bombings, people flee somewhere predictable. not that they will be destroyed, because men can to flee, to leave the territories, to emigrate somewhere, one moment, the next moment, sanctions are introduced against the people's republic of china and its enterprises, which means that china is returning to where, in the 70s of the 20th century, to the times when in the backyards of its homes, the chinese were making steel because comrade mao zedong wanted to overtake. the united states and the soviet union looked comical, but not here and what is the problem, the fact that the chinese economy will return to the 70s of the 20th century is a small big problem, so that in the 70s of the 20th century it was a poor underdeveloped state with an idiotic ideology of the post-cultural revolution, a state that could only be liked by european intellectuals who were not full of reason, various sartres,

but the world economy will return there and then. in sartre's time, it will be even worse, because everything that was built in china and taiwan will disappear as an economic factor, in order to move production from china to india, it will take time or to malaysia or to some other countries, then you don't have to think it is also an illusion that the manufacturing that will be located in india will work with the same efficiency as the manufacturing that is located. there are different traditions of production culture in china, yes, which should not be forgotten, the issue is not even cheap labor, but in order to teach the economy to work, let's say, the way the chinese economy works, time and effort are also needed and tradition, the economies of china and india

have different traditions in terms of the behavior and encouragement of workers, the chinese gladly... joined this competition for enrichment, although b because they spent decades in poverty, communist, and before that they had a completely different economy, uh, and india has always had such an economy, they were not in the communist world, they just live in a world with a different attitude towards such and such a monotonous, and work, mr. vitaly, i simply ask whether, in your opinion, it is possible for such an open military conflict with the destruction of the pro... industry in taiwan on the part of china, given that china itself uses and owns the famous taiwanese semiconductors, and owns, and owns, of course, it is here , well, yes, well, here we are, look, from the point of view of logic , nothing like this could be, and cannot

be, but from the point of view of logic, russia should have long ago gained full influence in ... contribute to the signing of the association agreement by ukraine, lobby for european integration of ukraine, buy 90% of the economy here and, through the ukrainian economy, corrupt the west absolutely calmly, despite the fact that the president of ukraine would simply be the governor of this territory, which was part of the russian impact on the west, you know? on a much higher level than viktor orban, i don't mean the current president, as you understand, or i mean viktor yanukovych, who signed the agreement just don't howl, told him... putin, we all remember that we know, that is, there could be such a government, it was like that, there was a population, the majority of which was pro -russian oriented and euro-atlantic

skeptical, this majority could only be increased at the expense of economic preferences, propaganda, russian television, we had all this, i tell you i remind you, everything that happened before 2013, when the east and south of ukraine were completely oriented towards moscow, they wanted to live like in europe. but here, in order to have half-russia, the soviet union always said that as soon as you go from kyiv to kharkiv, you enter the soviet union, until 2013 it was the soviet union of pure water, then, by the way , where bilhorod was, then there was still russia, not the soviet union, they were building a different state infrastructure there, geared not to russia, not to the soviet zone, but to some russian state traditions there, which they completely destroyed after all this, they returned to... with the right speed precisely to the soviet union, which we have now, neither in odesa nor in kharkiv, you will not find even a day with fire, so to speak, and this is also very important moment, but they did all this, and

logically, it was possible to write a plan for the incorporation of ukraine into the russian civilizational space with the simultaneous influence of russia on the west, and what they did on the contrary, crimea is ours, we protect the russian people in donbas. it was all illogical, and we are talking about people, remember who they are in principle grew up as political figures in the culture of the market economy, in the culture of the oligarchic economy, people who left the communist party threw party tickets themselves, vladimir putin stood next to anatoly sobchak at the famous rally in st. petersburg against the putsch, and these are the people behaved like complete idiots. now imagine that in the chinese version. we are dealing with the politburo of the central committee of the communist party of china, with the standing committee of the politburo, with people who, no matter what we say about them, no matter how beautiful they look,

no matter what suits they wear, they are ideological dogmatists, and they are ideological dogmatists in the dynastic sense of the word, vladimir putin was born in no one knows where, he is some kind of native of st. petersburg, who are all these... people who surround him, they are nobody, their parents are nobody, they themselves are nobody, their grandfathers are nobody, they just made something up for themselves because they read a couple of books in their life, and shizen fin, he is the son of one of the functionaries of the communist party of china, he is what is called a party prince, exactly so formed half of the chinese leadership, these are all dynasties of people who have their parents or other relatives in... as the top leaders of the communist party, the way china is formed , as you understand, they have these views, these are views of a clan-communist nature, they are into it really believe, but vladimir putin

believed in this russian world because he needed to create an ideology that would allow him to gain power, he could believe in anything else if it was convenient for him, well, he started running to church, remember you're welcome, sasha in the first years of his rule, lukashenko said that he was... an atheist, well, but when he became oleksandr grigoryovych and began to get closer to russia, he lifted himself up, runs, votserkvilsa runs to church, goes and is baptized there, that is, it became his ideology, although he he doesn't believe in god, and he said it out loud, but xijianping, believe me, is a completely different person, he believes in everything, and what he definitely believes in is the reunification of the motherland, ugh with... under the communist flag , this is not just a russian world, this is an empire, all that, that says putin, it is real that they , for what they came to power, they

believe that their civil war is not over, that is why the army is called the people's liberation army of china, why is it called simply the army , we will go to liberate the territories and the people, who are practically trapped, people who are still under the power of the west, people's liberation. army did not finish its mission, you know, in the main post of the red army it seemed that they had finished their campaign in the pacific ocean, because they reached the end of the russian empire, there they destroyed the last the white guards, uh, on the territory then, which was still called, by the way, taiwan, the far eastern republic, and with which the soviet union, the soviet union, the russian federation, i'm sorry, had diplomatic relations, as with another state, and they eventually it was eliminated like taiwan. "it was taiwan, there was a completely different state there until several years in a row, and that's all, after that the red army at some point became the soviet

army, and the chinese people." the liberation army has no chance of becoming anything else until the prc flag is raised in taipei, uh, and that's the problem , the problem isn't that you and i are realistic about what this could lead to, it could honestly lead to world war 3, to be completely honest, the point is , that they are idiots, that they believe in communist ideology, that they are not ready for compromises, huh. that they violate their own obligations, do you understand what the matter is? they had an opportunity, in principle, this opportunity was created for them by dancy when he agreed with great britain on the integration of hong kong, uh, and it was that they will not violate the democratic status of hong kong, i think there for 50 or 70 years, i don't remember what exactly was recorded there, it has to be seen, but the question is that they

violated their obligations sewing they began to impose their rules of the game on hong kong, they began to persecute people who wanted to preserve the sovereign status of hong kong there, despite the fact that without this hong kong their economy is nothing, that all their financial transactions take place through hong kong, that the chinese stock exchanges themselves are nobody trusts, trusts only hong kong, that if they destroy hong kong, they will, in principle, finally destroy the possibilities of developing their own economy, well, what's up with them , they seem to have created all the ideal conditions, they don't let the chinese into hong kong, you know. a chinese, of course, from the people's republic of china must obtain a visa to come to hong kong. on the contrary, they let foreigners into hong kong without visas. but at the same time, they are destroying everything that makes hong kong a free city, so to speak. and so the taiwanese look at this hong kong and think. well, well, we will agree on this principle: one country, two systems, they will keep our government for us, but for how many years, they will be allowed here, we will not be able

to stop them then. we won't have an army that hong kong doesn't have, we won't have special services that hong kong doesn't have, we'll just have guarantees from great britain, oh by the way , okay, yeah, good illustration, don't you believe in them, i that's how i see it, and even more so, they probably wouldn't want ukraine to sign something similar with the united states, it's better for something to be more substantive, no, no, i would said, i didn't say that, i didn't say that i don't believe, i would say that it's not something that will ensure, uh, it's, you know, it's better than nothing. 100% and don't forget that in these houses, what's it called, how do you say that word that i keep forgetting, it's not a guarantee, but an assurance, an assurance, yes, it's an assurance, they predict that we should have such the level of the army that will enable us to help great britain if she is attacked, we must always remember, by the way, to our people, that all the time, when we sign these assurances,

they will be bilateral so. that ukrainians will die in the red sea and in the taiwan gulf in the future, if we formalize all this, listen, well, we will join nato with exactly the same ones, this does not mean that we should not join, no, but simply that people need to know this, they need to realize that our victims, say, from the war in the taiwan strait, if it happens there in 10 years, may be greater than on the russian-ukrainian front, you just need to know this, this is the price, can we , may luck or not, or maybe so, this is reality, because it will be a war with china, and a war with china, it is not a war with russia, there are a billion people, it is not some unfortunate 140 million for you, they will not talk there, you you know, of course there are several times more, more, but we can take quality, no, no, no, this is a completely different story, we just have to remember this, like the next page of our history, that we will not have russia here to attack us, but there will be a war there, it may be so, and these documents

basically create a platform. in order to we took part in this, it is also true, because in order not to be told later, not to be ahead of you, this does not mean that it is not necessary, one must join, but one must remember that these are mutual obligations, all that i said, all that i , that it is not, not only we will be protected, but our soldiers will participate in other wars, it does not mean, oh, that's it, we did not leave this war to our children, no more our children will die, will be, because for the sake of ours, so that we do not perish today, we enter into a defensive alliance that allows our children and grandchildren to perish. tomorrow on other fronts, that’s it, that’s how civilization was created, collective security, that’s why it’s called collective, in general, because we’re not switzerland, switzerland says, we don’t want to leave anywhere, we die, we’re a neutral country, sorry, uh, we we will help you, the red cross, the olympic committee, you can put everything in us , as long as we are not bombed, we are not touched , we

are not conquered. with... we won't be able to play , then we've lost everything.