of the armed forces is built quite well and gives results, that is, it should not be scary right now, as the commander-in-chief of the armed forces, general zaluzhnyi said at a briefing, that let's not, you know, sacralize over every populated place on the map, this is important , and it hurts, of course, but, but i don't see any prospects for the enemy to make a rapid breakthrough anyway, thank you, oleksandr musienko, director of the center for military and legal research, we're going to talk about... just a few minutes, but stay with us, please, we will still be quite interesting to talk for the next hour and 30 minutes. events, events that are happening right now and affect our lives, of course, the news feed reports about them, but it is not enough to know what is happening, it is necessary to understand. antin borkovskii and invited experts soberly assess the events, analyze them or our

future every saturday at 1:10 p.m. with a repeat on sunday at 10:10 a.m. studio zahid with anton borkovsky at espresso. we continue the political club on the espresso tv channel. kharystyna yatskiv. vitaly portnikov and add to ours conversations of valery chaly , ambassador extraordinary and plenipotentiary of ukraine to the united states from 2015 to 2019. congratulations sir. let's try to talk about these agreements in the field of security, which were signed yesterday in kyiv between great britain and ukraine, and to what extent it can be called guarantees, as many call them, well, apart from the prime minister of great britain, rish sonak, it must be said, what he says, what term he uses, how it is better in ukrainian. to say, assurance, assurance, yes,

assurance, we already had it somewhere, i think and what happened in budapest, and what, and we are also negotiating with america about assurances, that, what are these documents talking about in general, maybe it is actually much more important than it seems to us, these assurances, you know, in fact in spears are breaking around the clocks, i'll just remind you that actually in the past... when the ukrainian system institutionally worked more rhythmically, yes, well, obviously, somehow more calmly, but not during the war, then there were some procedures, initially coordinated texts, delegations were appointed for negotiations not in the last moment, before the signing, and in advance, the expert environment was involved, the parliament, that's all that is being discussed these days, shows that

two parallel worlds have arisen here. one world is diplomacy, pragmatic, practical work on signing bilateral agreements that are with many countries, and this agreement, i want to emphasize, is one of the best that we have in this, in this area, signed with an important a country, a partner, and it's very good that we have a new standard, but... the discussion is going on because of something else, i want to emphasize this, because if we forget it, then we will generally draw the wrong conclusions, why there was any criticism at all now, it would seem, well, what to criticize, the agreement on cooperation in the field of security, which advances our relations further, further from the joint document the previous one, but i will remind you where it all came from, it all came from ukraine's proposal, the project. of the treaty on security

guarantees, it was called the kyiv security treaty, and the bet was made on the promotion of the kyiv security treaty itself, where there was the word "security guarantees". i don't want to say now, to explain from the point of view of international law, how important these father's words are, but that's how it was. we have proposed to our partners to enshrine the words of security guarantees in bilateral agreements. we didn't do that. this was impossible to do, why was it then in the political discourse, in communication, to talk about security guarantees, i will explain to you, because the issue of nato membership is now difficult to advance, so they would have come up with a second, parallel track, where you can demonstrate success, but there is one caveat, we need solutions now, well , what is called security guarantees. what is positive is that the authorities

have abandoned such statements, switched to normal vocabulary, that it is about a treaty on cooperation in the field of security, he. .. and i confirm once again, as a specialist, as a person who participated in the negotiations and signed the documents, it is quite broad, covers many areas, there are details, that is, it is a good agreement, but this exchange of concepts, which we fed us for several months, names quickly, replaces concepts, i think that this caused such a misunderstanding today, that's why you need to communicate with people in an adult way, you don't need to come up with some... this is firstly, secondly, now you have asked the question correctly, but in this case it is necessary to speak about the point, i actually found a lot of positives there, and the authorities have already told about these positives, i may not even duplicate them, but there are certain points, well, you

know that the ukrainian side insisted on the ratification of this kind of agreement, it is public, why because when the executive power changes in one or another... country, it can change the attitude towards this kind of agreement, in fact, from the point of view of our legislation and the vienna convention on the law of international treaties and our law on international treaties, this is an absolutely legitimate agreement from the moment of signing, as it was it is stated, it works for two parties, here is the ratification, i see it was not even foreseen by two parties, but , and now the question arises, that we are okay with britain, we think that even... who can come to power in next election, they will continue this because we we know their attitude is also positive towards such security issues with ukraine, but will the same agreement operate without us ratification? i'm not sure. that is, if a similar text

of this kind is signed with the executive power of the united states, then i am not sure that it cannot undergo some changes in the future. according to the text, but simply the attitude, if there are, will change, say, the power of the democrats there to the republicans, well, i mean the presidential electors, so it would be important for us to establish a mechanism for such agreements ratification from two sides, and the fact that it is not here is, well, this is really a weakness, but one more point, read the text carefully, you will find a lot of interesting points, perhaps, which do not need to be ratified. well, for example, i found that ukraine undertakes to actively fight corruption in the civil society of ukraine. i did not understand how it happened and what it is, what kind of fight against corruption in civil society it is, but there is such a moment, i understand why it arose, and

it arose from the ukrainian side, but is it worth it in such agreements to establish such things, which will then be ratified. therefore, it is necessary here, starting from this text. to understand that indeed our desires cannot always be supported, to be partners is the first position, the second, with each country there must still be an individual approach, and from this standard now we must push back, as from the bottom, that is, a low point, and try harder to receive, and the third, that the whole issue of security, security umbrella, security guarantees, remained open, it remained open. and we now clearly we see that the rhetoric regarding this track would not work, and the president's office should understand this and have already understood it. therefore, it is not surprising that the president had a meeting regarding membership in nato, and regarding additional

activities in this direction. this is a good signal, the only thing is that when resources are dispersed on two tracks, and on bilateral agreements, and on nato membership, i am afraid. that we have enough personnel, diplomatic, and financial resources to introduce all this at the same time. mr. valery, a tell me, please, did you not get the impression, after reading the document in an accessible format, that these are all the assurances we are talking about, they relate to aggression against ukraine in the future, that is, more opportunities to use british technologies, military production and so on and so forth further, both on land, yes... on water and in the air we will only have in the future, but with regard to the current conflict, somehow everything is quite optical, well, i think that here it seems to me that there is confirmation of the approach, and there is some points that speak of the possibility of

in the case of the next aggression, and i will tell you even more why this agreement is so strange from the point of view of international law. because, as a rule, international treaties are signed security agreements, they are signed without having in mind any specific subject, in this case. this is , of course, an agreement that specifically refers to russia, the russian war against ukraine. there are no other risks that, in principle, could be related to ukraine in the next 10 years, which this agreement considers before a possible revision. i think this is a weakness, that's why that it may sound strange, but, well, risks in ukraine, in relation to external aggression, can come not only from the side of russia, this is firstly, secondly. "if a conditional russia will already be there, well, it will happen that it will be fragmented, and it will be other subjects

of international relations. well, the agreement provides for changes, the agreement provides for correction there, so here, in principle, i would not be afraid that it somehow blurs britain's current approaches to helping ukraine, on the contrary, i think it even shifts it, and the presence of concrete figures there 2.5 billion pounds. help, which is very, in fact, the best thing about such agreements is the specifics. tell me, what is heard about the vote in the congress on aid to ukraine? how do you feel about the development of events? i have already said many times, and, well, this bp continues, every day we swallow validol there, whether it will be or not. let's start with what happened a long time ago. it was also said on your broadcast, it seems that we discussed it, that the decision

will not be made before february, and it was already known, but i said it again, if i am not mistaken, at the end october, there is an explanation here, and now it has been reinforced with concrete actions, the process, unfortunately, is not going in the best scenario, but how am i trying to explain this scenario. this is the american approach, when the stakes are raised to the maximum level, well , some kind of political discourse, and then at the last moment, before the deadline, the parties find a compromise, as if from a decision, well, with their own part of the benefits that they squeezed out during the period of discussion, something like that happening now in this matter. one thing that worries me is that it is actually white the house and the current administration cut off any

steps back and bet on pressure , that's what it's about, for example, the democrats gave up the law on lendlease, now i hear different opinions, but well, i read american laws, for in this package in the nda , the defense budget for the 24th year is... this item 1224, it has disappeared, that is, there is no extension of the lend-lease law, that is, this instrument will not be there now, well, at least until they make another decision, secondly, they can take more from warehouses and sell weapons at residual value, even if there is no financing, that it may also be why they are declaring now sharply that they have nothing to deliver to ukraine? don't take it as the truth, it 's not the truth, it's only a part of the truth, because

they put so much pressure on the republicans, they have something to supply, only the mechanisms will be different, you will have to buy at a low price, lower, but buy. third, no one mentions that 300 million have already been allocated for ukraine in the defense budget, which means that there will be several such tranches of 150-200 million for at least this year. maybe, the problem is something else, the problem is how in america, in washington and not only in the white house, they are looking at the continuation of military operations in the 24th year. this is the main thing. are they ready to make corrections to their strategy, and provide ukraine in a concentrated and rapid manner in the first half of this year with enough military equipment, resources and cooperation with europe to... change the very course of the war, to avoid the positional war that

the russian-ukrainian war is turning into war, well, it is entrenched, to turn it into a maneuverable one, for this we need solutions, including this package for 61.4 billion dollars, that is, it is not about what america supports or does not support, it is about how we see together the strategy of victory this year, the de-occupation of ukraine, and now the republicans. a very dangerous thing is that they began to delay the decision until the primaries, new hampshire, first they said, then they say, let's wait for the big one. tuesday, where more than 800 voters will decide, well choose more than 800 voters in many states, it's march 5, and now they want to delay, moreover, this small part of them, which was marginal, but now has become dominant , summoned, one might say , to the speaker of the house of representatives and told him, gave him an ultimatum in essence, the other day it happened

that if he does not remove the issue it is help, or rather not help , and shutdown. i.e. the denial of funding, if he does not continue to act rigidly like this, then he can be replaced, so, well, this is the story, it will continue, well, at least until the beginning of february, and i think , probably even longer, but please tell me mr. valery, what now is happening, but in fact these hours are happening in taiwan, we are talking about the already counting of votes in the elections there, there is an understanding that most likely the current vice president will win... chinte, who is perceived by china as a dangerous separatist. what is happening now in the middle east, in particular in the red sea basin, and we understand how important the situation there is for the whole world, for trade routes, first of all, and definitely the situation in ukraine. all this in a complex can play a role in the fact that each of the ones i have named now,

actually locations on the world map, received its support from the united states. are we already forced to speak exclusively for our own interests? you asked the question on more than one show, i will try to answer briefly: the us defense doctrine describes how to act in two regional wars, which means that they cannot act in three regional wars, what we see now is not yet regional wars, these are only theirs, well, such a deployment, therefore, let's say this, in the conditions, if there is a war... in europe, it will go beyond the borders of ukraine, and such a scenario it is possible, if iran enters the war against israel in the middle east, and the two koreas are also at war, at the same time , the united states is unlikely to be able to effectively operate militarily in these three directions, so i think that this is what

the opponents of the united states are trying to achieve, but here... there is good news, firstly, you see how the situation is developing in the middle east, it seems to me that very serious steps have been taken there to stop the escalation, the development of the conflict into the region, iran, after demonstrating such a strike against neither china spoke, and now attention, nor russia, and now blinken , the secretary of state is meeting with the head of the international department of the central committee of the party of china in washington. do you understand that they all gave the go-ahead for strikes on iran, well, iranian by proxy? the condemnation, mr. valery, that russia came forward with the condemnation, was the statement of the ministry of foreign affairs of russia, vitaliy, the statements of the ministry of foreign affairs of russia are propaganda leaflets, a propaganda

leaflet, and i watched the meeting of the un security council, where russia was twisting. as soon as i could and the same benzya, who treats ukraine in a rude way, all this to ukraine, there russia only refrained from supporting the joint resolution, and china supported, well, they refrained, yes, they gave their excuses there, that is, they explained why they abstained , actually supported the attacks of the assailants, you understand how cynical the approaches are, what is the difference between freedom. shipping in the red sea and the black sea, in money, in russian money, yes, that's why you see when everyone's interests coincide, when interests coincide, and there really is 15% of trade everyone, china and russia are interested, and here they are, when the interests coincided, that's all, they forgot about it, the only thing that russia is afraid of, and

they tried to push this remark into the resolution so that this decision would not be spread to other regions. of the world, that is, as the so-called athop, and that is, we are in the red sea in one way, in the black sea and in south china in another way , this was the joint position of russia and china , that is, that is all, that is, this is a very, very revealing moment for us, where we have an explanation for the interests of china, there everything can go completely, now returning to taiwan, this it's a long story, there are too many factors to now... evaluate it, come on, i'm still not ready to say all this at once, because let's wait for the composition of the parliament, because there the kuomintang, together with others, can overturn control, despite the fact that the president is the third . once the party wins, well, conditionally speaking, then it is ready to oppose mainland china. but nevertheless, the situation can go

in different directions, the only thing i can say is that everything is developing in such a way that the key point for the development of a serious conflict will be in to south asia, well, everyone, everyone is on their way there, the only question is, everyone will think. how to end the war in europe before this confrontation. it will be beneficial for china that the war in europe does not end, that the usa is distracted from europe, and it will be beneficial for the usa, well, i hope, to quickly put an end to the issue of russian aggression against ukraine. i think that this should unite europe and the usa in achieving some specific goals in this russia, well, i hope so, because it will be difficult in the future, and the last point. in fact, those who say that change in the us the administration can lead to a change in serious foreign policy, they are right, and the issue is not only donald trump, the issue is that if the republican

president changes, the administration will change dramatically, there will no longer be the same conditions as there were during the previous period of the president trump he will immediately lead to such, well, drastic changes in the secretary of state, the minister of defense, it will be an administration that will start with the fact that... it will break its obligations with europe, well, at least they will announce withdrawal from nato and about other things, and will shift the focus of attention to south asia, why? we, we just, you know, think that europe is more important to the average american than asia, nothing like that. since the second world war, every american knows that there was an attack on pearl harbor, the attack was from the west coast, from the west coast, from the sea, from the ocean, and the third line of defense, this is... the united states, well, let's tentatively call it that, passes through taiwan. japan, taiwan, south korea, the islands, this is the circle drawn by generals after

of the second world war, as an important line of resistance to an attack on the usa, and for them it is closer, a stable region of europe, and this, and this is such realities that we do not see on the map, you know why, because we have maps that are all europe-centric, in we are on the map, but look at the maps in the usa. in the maps of the usa , there is the usa in the center, and this map, where the usa is in the center, it is not at all like the ones we saw in our schools or universities there, look at the globe, and everyone from the globe can unfold their map, do you want ukraine in the center, you want the usa, and china has maps, and you want australia, there are also such maps, but you want australia, and china has maps, china, the centers of the world, you know, if you look at this map with china, it is a strange map, once it was... we need to show people that we do not have this kind of imagination changes our perception of everything in this world, that's why everyone acts very cynically and in their own interests, and

now china's position has shown where china is interested, it turns out that it is possible to change the position, not the same as with regard to ukraine. thank you, mr. valery, for the inclusion, for the important points, valery chalyi, extraordinary plenipotentiary ambassador of ukraine to the usa from 2015 to 2019, well, we're catching up. the topic we are actually talking about is south asia and not only mykhailo yakubovych, orientalist, candidate of historical sciences, researcher at the oriental studies department of the university of freiburg, germany. congratulations, mr. mykhailo, glory to ukraine. glory to the heroes, good evening. so, let's start with these attacks on yemen, how effective do you think they are, how much do you think in the end it can be controlled by missile strikes. yemeni khosi people, by the way today i was reading one of the yemeni newspapers, continuing the conversation we had with mr. valery, mr. mykhailo, and it was written there that yemen is at the center of world

civilization, that it is a country that combines islam with yemeni values, that everyone understands , the role of yemen in world history, well, that is , they dug the red sea, of a kind, and that's it, is it possible to have people with such a vision - well, in fact , the thesis is not so far from the truth, if we are talking about the arab civilization, we know about the adnan and canaanite tribes , northern and southern, it is believed that the southern tribes, the arabs of their time, even in the pre-islamic period , really played an almost key role in the civilization of the arabian peninsula, that is, these countries, such as the united arab emirates... saudi arabia, bahrain, others are developed, and have gone far ahead due to the sale of natural resources, in fact , they, well , took over such a baton from yemen, but now

it is about... another, actually, if you recall the recent history of yemen, i am talking about the civil war after 2011, because now yemen is divided into three regions, in fact, one is under the control of the united states , saudi arabia, another the emirates, and finally the houthi part, so in 2015, saudi arabia and the emirates delivered very strong, powerful blows to the name, much more powerful than those that are currently inflicted there on the port of hudaydah and others. the americans in the regions, but this did not prevent the houthis from taking over the most densely populated part of the country, holding power there, rebranding, forming a government of national salvation, which, of course, not many people admit, almost no one there, but they are trying to show that allegedly they are not only correspond to yemeni interests of the people, and also, in fact, to represent the state at the international level e. these strikes

were in some ways demonstrative, in others warning, it is clear that they may continue, their goal is not to call into question the current houthi power in the western part of e -e southwestern part of the arabian peninsula, but rather simply to drive them away from the coast so that they cannot launch various types of weapons against civilian ships there, and... it is clear that they do not pose any significant military threat to the united states, therefore these the goals can be achieved with such strikes , driving the houthis a little deeper into the country, but will there be further support for the, er, the presidential leadership council, as it is called, which governs the eastern part of yemen, or the emirati south yemen, well

here is the question of how it will continue... the situation will develop, but these are already internal rather things that are unlikely to have any echo far outside, that is, i would say that here, well , we have such a confrontation, which has defined goals and, but without about any ground operation the overthrow of the houthis cannot be discussed, absolutely, ugh, mr. mykhailo, please tell me, we correctly understand that when we talk about strikes by the united states of great britain with the support of allies against... the yemeni houthis, we are generally talking about a strike by proxy iranian in the region, and in fact the yemeni houthis are a terrorist group that almost immediately supported hamas in its struggle with israel from the beginning of october 2023. how does this episode fit into and affect the overall development of the situation between hamas and israel. and whether at all

should these two episodes be connected? they should be linked before everyone with the actions of iran , in this case, first of all, the houthis from the very beginning, and this movement appeared in such a modern sense in 2004, set as one of their main slogans the fight against israel and, in general, by jews as such, that is, it is deeply such not only pro-islamist, but right-wing radical. the judeo-phobic movement, they even have such a slogan, but we see that this is the first echo of the conflict between israel and palestine, which has gone beyond the borders of that particular region, that is, it is not lebanon that is attacking israel, although there are some clashes there, but not on the same scale as the war of 2006, well, here iran just played a little bit with its muscles, first of all, iran plays them specifically in

the persian gulf, and this... by the way, caused now the corresponding reaction of the arab countries, despite some friction in relations with the united states, for example, qatar is now continuing the presence of american troops in ukraine, that is, it is clear that without american presence there, iran will become very , very strong, and this agreement between saudi arabia and iran, even the same in some ways, this war, well, not that it is called into question, but conditions have been created in which it is possible... everything will be completely different, although saudi arabia itself, despite the fact that they once fought against the houthis, did not fight very successfully, let's be honest, she has refrained from any direct interventions at the moment, although she has supported the actions of this coalition, that is, such a belt is unfolding somewhere here.