well, here iran just played its muscles a little, firstly, iran is playing them specifically in the persian gulf, and this, by the way, has now caused a corresponding reaction from the arab countries, despite some friction in relations with the united states, for example, qatar now continues the presence of the american military in ukraine, that is, it is clear that without the american presence there, iran will become very, very strong, and this agreement between saudi arabia and iran, even in the same way... just in some ways this war, well, not that it should be questioned , but conditions have been created in which maybe everything will be completely different, although saudi arabia itself, despite the fact that at one time they fought against the houthis, they did not fight very successfully, let's be honest, it has refrained from any direct interventions at the moment, although it has supported the actions of this coalition, that is, something is unfolding here such a belt where iran

, despite the sanctions, despite the significant restrictions, still tries to exert pressure, and to exert pressure very satisfactorily, not only in lebanon, but also not only in the persian gulf, we can also see it in yemen, that is, it was such a demonstration of power that in in which case iran can, in principle, create a threat up to the complete closure of the babel-mandeb strait, which essentially connects the red sea with the indian ocean and through which a very... large part of cargo passes, well, that is, it is one of the main keys, it is the key trade route of the world in general , and that is why here iran is in the position of such a beneficiary, which, despite everything, holds on and somewhere also calls for appropriate dialogue, appropriate reactions and tries to take into account interests, and probably further the situation will move to the persian gulf, when iran will be there intercept further. tankers, there is now

a dispute between iran and the united arab emirates, because the emirates claim three islands there, the islands are not so important there, but the oil deposits not far from them, that is, this is such a long-term game that has already been going on in the region for a long time years, and her position is only one such side in this game. and tell me, please, do i understand correctly, mr. mykhailo, that in fact... "the state of southern yemen, which was once founded before the unification of the two parts of yemen, has been recreated, is governed by a parallel government and in does not take any part in all these stories, because we saw that sana'a was bombed, and aden, this former capital of southern yemen, it was once a semi-communist state that was in close relations with the soviet union, no one touches, extremely in close communications, they even had scientific socialism stripped of their ideology, and now..." it's quite good there

, mr. mykhailo, we have problems with communication, i'm really asking my colleagues to get in touch with mykhailo yakubovich, if we have time, orientalist , candidate of historical sciences, researcher of the oriental studies department of freinburg university from germany, a very important question from vitaly portnikov, what about its homogeneity in general, well, it is absolutely not realistic, this homogeneity is, for example, on the island of socotra. now the troops of the united arab emirates are in general, and by the way, there is also an interesting thing here, that in fact southern yemen was really recreated, mr. mykhailo, are you with us? well , well, well, that will end our discussion about southern yemen, is it there now? well, he is, but he, he is essentially an emirati proxy, but since the emirati has much better relations with the west than iran, he is under its control as such.

the territory to the west, despite the fact that it is not very populated, but the problem is that the khosits go through the port, yes, and that border of saudi arabia has access to the red sea, and there are islands, according to its narrowest part, as well , and they can easily attack civilian shipping from there with some relatively primitive means of attack, and the island of socotra, in particular, is almost entirely under the direct control of the emirates. because there is a military base of the emirates there, that is another question, that due to a certain effort to maintain the balance of forces, the emirates are not ready for a serious war there, but they are interested in coalition strikes, of course, in order to weaken the khosyns, another question is that there indeed, not only external factors, in fact the so-called habramut yemen, these are two parts of yemen itself, that is, the north and the south - this is a long war that began even after the fall of the imamate regime in yemen in

in 1962, and then the soviet union, accordingly, a lot of different regional separatist movements invested there too. mr. michael, very briefly and finally , i must ask what the escalation of the confrontation between the sunni and shia world in general will mean for the region, this confrontation is going on, in fact, it has been going on for a long time , different lines are going, but now there are many pro-islamic movements, such as hamas or even islamist such as the houthis themselves, they try to appeal to such a general. arab solidarity or even islamic solidarity in general, for example, hamas emerged from the muslim brotherhood as a sunni movement, and this does not prevent it from maintaining relations with hezbollah and iran, similarly, the houthis belong to moderate shiism and zaydism, but

they also try to appeal to the slogan of arab nationalism, and to islamism in such broad. meaning, that's why there are so many movements here, which are now sunni and shiite, they understand that a purely religious identity does not bring the desired results, and under the slogans of such, you know, islamic unity, they try to sell to broad sections of the population very different kinds of projects, of such, well, supposedly global importance, given the poverty of yemen, it is the poorest arab country and... dependence on humanitarian aid, on various forces, in principle, this happens very often, that is why there are problems with mobilization, top, they have no new forces. thank you, mykhailo yakubovych, orientalist, candidate of historical sciences, researcher, department of oriental studies of the university of freiburg from

germany, was in touch with us, we will take a short break now, but we will be back, yes that you stay with us. every day, every hour, every minute we receive a large amount. information the most anticipated event of the year, what is actually happening on the front? what are the losses of personnel and equipment on the battlefield? how the international community evaluates our successes and what moscow is lying about. from the flow of news coming from everywhere, we single out the most important ones. the world is closely watching whether there will be weapons for ukraine and what kind, and what are the russian occupiers whispering about behind the commanders' backs? news, summaries of the week. it. review of only important events, important, reliable events, it's analytics, fact-checking, expert comments, about it and much more in today's issue, about important things in plain language, available to all viewers. greetings, iryna koval is in the studio, and these are the results of the week on the espresso tv channel.

news, summaries of the week, every saturday at 21:00 on espresso. and we continue the saturday political club, your favorite part of the conversation with vitaly portnikov on the hottest topics and news of the week. it's just that now we are talking about the counting of votes in the presidential elections in taiwan, the current vice president is leading there laychinte international media reports that he represents the ruling democratic progressive party, he is 64 years old. he previously said that taiwan is already a sovereign state. it is not necessary to declare its independence at all. china generally calls him a dangerous separatist. but we understand that the fate of taiwan is not decided exclusively by presidential elections. mr. vitaly, what do you think

this vote is about, based on its previous results? you know, i think it's about stability to some extent the mood of the citizens, because the fact that the democratic progressive party managed to w... that it did not happen immediately, today, by the way, is another anniversary of the death of general musachen kashi, the founder of the kuomintang in its current taiwanese form, and as you understand, during the reign of chiang kai-shek there was no such democracy. there was not, there was in principle a one-party regime of the kuominde party, but when president chenkesha's son jiang qingguo , who you know had soviet experience, was yermalaev in the soviet union, had a russian

wife from the soviet union, who became the first lady of taiwan, it's such an amazing story, and with all the hatred of the soviet union for taiwan, there, the russian woman was the first lady for a long time. th years, he began the process of democratization, it ended in the defeat of the kuomintang in the presidential and parliamentary elections, and since then the kuomintang and the democratic progressive party changed each other in... countries, at least after two terms of the president from one country, the party from one country won, as a rule , the candidate from another won, the current situation is completely different, although the situation in the parliamentary elections, as we talked about it with valery chaly, looks different, also, because according to the latest reports from the thai times newspaper, the kuomintang gets 52 seats in parliament, and... the democratic progressive party gets 51 seats, leaving eight seats behind the other political

party, the third-placed party place in the presidential election, the taiwan people's party, the taiwan people's party, and this party, as you can see, now has a golden stake in the actual structure of the taiwanese government, so a lot will depend on the position of the leaders. this party , from this party's position in the parliament, it 's led by a famous businessman, kay wenja, he's the mayor of taipei, uh, while there's a losing candidate from the gommidan party, he's the mayor of new taipei, so it's all happening around the capital, actually , in any case, it's really quite an interesting situation, because everyone they ask, but what can really happen now when... china will attack taiwan as a result of these elections, i don't think so, huh, because the following question arises:

why exactly as a result of these presidential and parliamentary elections , the people 's republic of china was supposed to attack taiwan, what changed in taiwan as a result of this election , nothing, any other configuration of power, it would have created a new situation, the leader of the kuomintang party won, hooyu, who just on the last day of the election campaign during press conferences. "i will not be such a dangerous friend of the united states as volodymyr zelensky or benjamin netanyahu, no, i will be a peacemaker, i will be the one to negotiate with beijing, such a position naturally creates opportunities to put pressure on such a politician, the question is not even his own position, in how it will look from the side, well, we know this from ukrainian experience. moscow began to put pressure on volodymyr zelenskyi from the very first day of the new president's tenure in office. let's imagine that volodymyr zelenskyi will lose in 2019." election in the second round of petro poroshenko, what changes for russia? nothing, nothing. i am not

saying that russia would not necessarily have attacked ukraine, but it would have been based on the stability of the situation in our country. the situation, of course, after the election of volodymyr zelenskyi as the president of ukraine, after the appearance of completely new people in the servant of the people party in the verkhovna rada of ukraine, turned into a situation of complete turbulence, at least from the russian point of view. ukrainian voters themselves created ideal conditions for the war that began. in february 2022 taiwanese voters did not create these ideal conditions, it does not mean that there can be no war, it means that it is not the presidential and parliamentary elections that are the catalyst indicator, so thank you for the word, the catalyst for such a conflict, now the next point is very important, it concerns november 2024 , the presidential elections in the united states, the question arises, we say all the time, the president of the russian federation, vladimir putin, will not... agree on anything with ukraine before the presidential elections in the united states, he will look at

the results of the elections, who will still win, what the congress will look like, and this will be the starting point when he will determine his next tactics in the war with ukraine, and what is the difference between the head of the people 's republic of china, well, he also has wait for november to understand who he has to deal with, because one thing is biden, another thing is trump, trump, ... i would say, aimed at confronting china, so you can make a mistake, you can start a war, then wait for trump to act very different in the south china sea and in the taiwan strait than his predecessor, and the pressures that may come from trump and trump's determination toward the people's republic of china may be very different than biden's determination, so in this situation i think that. .. shizen ping, even if he is planning some military action, he would like to play it safe, wait until november and

see if he can act by force, given the configuration that the us will have, and this is an important point, so in this regard not much will change in the coming months, there is also another moment when we compare russia's war with... we must understand that as a result of russia's war with ukraine serious economic cataclysms did occur, but not significant ones, because as i once said john mccain, russia is... the gas station is so inadequate, what happens when we refuse russian oil and russian gas, this is a serious problem, but it turned out not the way the europeans even thought, that is, it turned out that you can completely safely replace the russian gas and live completely peacefully, i

will tell you more, there are countries that have not given up russian pipeline gas, let's say hungary, so i for... recently i saw a publication according to which the money for gas that hungary pays today , would be much smaller if it bought gas on the stock exchange, that is, the question arises and what, in what, in what sense, these energy relations were not particularly reflected, russia itself turned out to be not so sensitive to western sanctions, because it rebuilt its economy. cooperation with asia, but the west did not feel anything so strongly from the point of view of energy prices and so on. now let's look at what will happen with taiwan and china. it's not oil from gas anymore, it's chips, semiconductors , semiconductors. let's imagine that the war between china and taiwan will move to the territory of taiwan. by the way, the americans, as far as i

understand, are currently planning just such a war. because it is believed that there used to be an approach and it was in principle... active for many decades, which emphasized that the taiwanese naval forces will simply not allow the chinese army into the territory of the republic of china to taiwan, that the chinese will be stopped already in a naval war. now there is no such certainty, china has significantly modernized and rebuilt its navy and there is a danger that the people's liberation army of china will be able to land on... the territory of ostro, so taiwan is now turning into a fortress, a fortress on the territory of which there will be fierce battles between taiwan and china , and the taiwanese are ready for it, you know, we talked about hoi, who was a candidate for the kuomintang lost these elections, so kooyu

did not invite the last president of the republic of china from the kuomintang to his last pre-election rally. that taiwan won't beat china anyway, ugh, this statement was enough, as well as ma's recent trip to china, that the hoi-yi did not want to see him at their election rally, even though this is a person who symbolizes the achievements and victories of the kuomintang, because he will say that we have different approaches to relations with china, so this is a consolidated position of taiwan. it is not much different here the positions of the democratic party with the kuomintang , that is, both political forces do not claim independence, and this is already china believes that the progressive party is more separatist and the kuomintang is less separatist, because the kuomintang has its origins in the mainland, uh, and all these people who led the communist the china party,

they were all members of the kuomintang leadership, and mao zedong and jonen, all founders of kener, they were in the kuomintang. it was a nationwide such party, but the democratic progressive party was created in taiwan itself, and therefore it no longer causes great enthusiasm, but there is an absolutely accurate understanding in both of these leading parties that china must be resisted, and now imagine the fate of these enterprises, uh, what will happen to the world economy, imagine one fine day, china destroys these... enterprises just because missile strikes, bombings, people flee somewhere, not even that they will be destroyed, because people can flee, workers leave the territories, emigrate somewhere, one moment, the next moment, against the people's republic of china and its enterprises are introduced sanctions, so china is returning somewhere in

the 70s of the 20th century, to the times when the chinese were making steel in the yards of their... homes, because comrade mao zedong wanted to overtake the united states and the soviet union, it looked comical, but not here and what is the problem, the fact that the chinese economy will return in the 1970s is a small big problem, because in the 1970s it was a poor underdeveloped country with an idiotic ideology of the post-cultural revolution, a country which could appeal only to european intellectuals, who were not full of reason. different sartres, but the world economy will return to sartre's time and it will be even worse, because everything that was built in china and taiwan will disappear as an economic factor in order to move production from china to

india, it will take time or to malaysia or to some other countries, then do not think, it is also an illusion that the production that will be located in india will work with the same efficiency as the production that is located in china, there are different traditions of production cultures, yes, which are also not needed. forget, the question is not even about cheap labor , but in order to teach the economy to work, let's say, the way the chinese economy works, time, effort and tradition are also needed in the economies of china and india, different traditions in terms of behavior and encouragement of workers, the chinese were happy to join this race to get rich, if only because they spent ten... that in poverty, communist, and before that they had a completely different economy, ugh, and india has always had such an economy, they were not in communist world, they just live in a world of a different

attitude towards such and such a monotonous, dear vitaliy, i just ask the question, do you think such an open military conflict with the destruction of industry in taiwan by china is possible, given that the famous... china itself uses and owns, and owns, and owns the kursk semiconductors, of course, it ’s the same here, well, yes, well, we, from the point of view, look, from the point of view of logic, nothing like this could happen, yes, and not maybe, but from the point of view of logic, russia should have received it a long time ago full influence in ukraine, promote ukraine's signing of the pro...ation agreement, lobby for the european integration of ukraine, buy 90% of the economy here, and through the ukrainian economy , corrupt the west absolutely calmly,

despite the fact that the president of ukraine would simply be the governor of this territory , which would be part of the russian influence on the west, you know, on a much greater level than viktor orban, i don't mean the current president, as you understand. i mean viktor yanukovych, who signed the agreement , you just don't need to howl, putin told him, we do we remember all this, that is, there could be such a government, it was like that, there was a population , the majority of which was pro-russian oriented, euro-atlantic skeptical, this majority could only be increased at the expense of economic preferences, propaganda, russian television, all this in our country there was, i remind you, everything that happened before 2013, when... the east and south of ukraine were completely oriented towards moscow, they wanted to live like in europe, but here, so that there would be half-russia

, the soviet union always said that as soon as from kyiv, you go towards kharkiv , you enter the soviet union, until 2013 it was the soviet union of clean water, then, by the way, where belgrade was, then there was still russia, not the soviet union, they were building a different state infrastructure there, configured not to russia. and not the soviet ones for some russian state traditions there, which they completely destroyed after all this, they returned with incredible speed to the soviet union, which we have now, neither in odessa nor in kharkiv, you will not find even a day with fire, yes so to speak, and that's a lot too an important point, but they did all this , illogically, it was possible to write a plan for the incorporation of ukraine into the russian civilizational space with the simultaneous influence of russia on the west and... they did the opposite, the crimea is ours, we protect the russian people in donbas, it was all illogical, and

we are talking about people, remember, who basically grew up as political figures in the culture of the market economy, in the culture of the oligarchic economy, people who left the communist party, threw party tickets themselves, vladimir putin stood next to anatoly sobchak on the famous rally in st. petersburg against. putsch, and these people behaved like complete idiots. now imagine that in the chinese version we are dealing with the politburo of the central committee of the communist party of china, with the standing committee of the politburo, with people who, no matter what we say about them, no matter how beautiful they look, no matter what suits they wear, they are ideological dogmatists, and they are ideological dogmatists in the dynastic sense of the word. vladimir putin was born in an unknown place. a native of st. petersburg who are all these people who surround him, they are nobody, their parents are nobody,

this... they are nobody, their grandfathers are nobody, they just made something up for themselves because they read a couple of books in their life, and shizen ping, he is the son of one of the functionaries of the communist party of china, he is what is called a party prince, this is exactly how half of the chinese leadership is formed, these are all dynasties of people who have their parents or other relatives as top leaders of the communist party, this is how china is formed, as you understand , they have these views... this views of a clan-communist nature , they really believe in it, but vladimir putin believed in this russian world because he needed to create an ideology that would allow him to gain power, he could believe in anything else if it was profitable, ugh, he started running to church, remember, sasha lukashenko said in the first years of his rule that he was an atheist, ugh, but when he became oleksandr

grigoryovych, he became to russia, ascended, worshiped, runs to church, goes there to be baptized, that is, it became his ideology, although he doesn't believe in god, and he said it out loud, and xijianping, believe me, is a completely different person, he believes in everything, and what he definitely believes in is the reunification of the motherland, uh, with under the communist flag, this is not just russian peace, this is an empire, that's all. what putin is saying is the reality of what they came to power for, they believe that their civil war is not over, so why is the army called the people's liberation army of china, why is it called simply the army to liberate the territories and people , which are in the trap it is practically the custom of the people who are still under the power of the west, the people's liberation army did not finish its mission, you know, in

the main post of the red army: and in the pacific ocean, they finished their campaign, because they reached the end of the russian empire, there they destroyed the last the white guards, uh, in the territory then, which was then still called, by the way, taiwan, a far eastern republic with which the soviet union, the soviet union, the russian federation, sorry, had diplomatic relations, as with another state, and they eventually eliminated it , like taiwan, it was taiwan, there was a completely different state until a few years ago. in a row, that's all , after that the red army at some point became the soviet army, and the chinese people's liberation army has no chance of becoming anything else until the prc flag is raised in taipei, ugh, and that's the problem, the problem is not that you and i are realistically thinking about what this could lead to, it could lead to a third world war, to be honest, to be completely honest, the fact is that

they... idiot, they believe in communist the ideology that they are not ready for compromises , ugh, that they are violating their own commitments, you understand what the matter is, they had an opportunity, in principle , this opportunity was created for them by dan sioping when he agreed with great britain on the integration of hong kong, ugh , and that was that they would not violate the democratic status of hong kong, i think it's been there for 50 or 70 years, i don't remember what... what was written there exactly, it has to be looked at, but the question is that they violated their obligations, they began to impose hong kong has its own rules of the game, they began to persecute people who wanted to preserve the sovereign status of hong kong there, despite the fact that without this hong kong, their economy is nothing, that all their financial transactions take place through hong kong, that no one trusts the chinese stock exchange itself, only hong kong's that if they destroy hong kong, they will basically

destroy development opportunities. their own economy, well, what about them, they seem to have created all the ideal conditions, they don’t let the chinese into hong kong, you know, chinese, of course, groups of the chinese people of the republic must obtain a visa to come to hong kong, on the contrary, they let foreigners into hong kong without visas, but at the same time they destroy everything that makes hong kong a free city, so to speak, and the taiwanese look at this hong kong and think , well, we will agree on this principle, one country, two systems, they... will keep our government for us, but for how many years they will be allowed here, we will not be able to stop them then, we will not have an army, which is not in hong kong, we will not have special services that hong kong does not have, we will simply have them guarantees of great britain, oh, by the way , okay, yes, a good illustration, don't you believe in them, i see it that way, and even more so, they probably wouldn't want ukraine to sign something similar with the united states.